August 2007


Another rabbit pops out of the Iraqi hat
Powerful and power-hungry Shi'ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr has distinguished himself not only by fighting against the US in Iraq, but also by consistently changing his colors. His sudden announcement, therefore, to suspend his fight with US forces for six months cannot be taken entirely at face value. It's a deft political move, and if anything should put the US and Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki more on guard than ever before. - Sami Moubayed (Aug 31, '07)

Benchmarks come and go
Iraq has met only three of 18 benchmarks set for it by the US Congress, according to leaks from a new report. The news will certainly increase congressional criticism of President George W Bush's "surge" strategy for Iraq, but the administration has its own definitions of "success". (Aug 31, '07)

Britain's last stand in the south
Iraq's second city, Basra, could use a little "peace gas" from H G Wells' 1930s screenplay Things to Come. That might be about the only thing that salvages Britain's perilous position. The remaining 5,000 British troops are retreating into the airport, their last redoubt, to wait out the inevitable end game in tandem with the US. - Ronan Thomas (Aug 31, '07)

Gridlock on Pakistan's road to change
The US-and-British-inspired plan of twinning President General Pervez Musharraf and former premier Benazir Bhutto in a power-sharing deal is aimed at putting Pakistan on the road to becoming a enlightened, moderate Muslim country. Nawaz Sharif, another former prime minister, presents a formidable roadblock. - M K Bhadrakumar (Aug 31, '07)

A hidden menace in Bush's words on Iran
President George W Bush this week raised the temperature further with Iran by declaring his intent to "confront Tehran's murderous activities" in Iraq. But what on the surface may appear as business as usual in the war of words between Tehran and Washington may in reality repeat an earlier pattern widely suspected to have been aimed at provoking war with Iran. - Trita Parsi (Aug 30, '07)

SPEAKING FREELY
Armed and ready for Iran
The US$20 billion in military aid the United States is giving to Sunni Arab states indicates a regional strategy that looks beyond the fighting in Iraq to consider the entire region as an interlinked theater of war. And the "enemy" is clearly Iran. - William Hawkins (Aug 30, '07)

New steps in the war dance over Iran
In an almost choreographed tango, US President George W Bush and French President Nicolas Sarkozy have lashed out at Iran, both warning of dire consequences over its supposed pursuit of nuclear weapons. The International Atomic Energy Association, meanwhile, is much more sanguine over Tehran's nuclear progress, but it is not the one calling the shots in what Sarkozy labels a looming clash between Islam and the West. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Aug 29, '07)

THE ROVING EYE
Bush's brand-new poodle
With former British prime minister Tony Blair put out to new pastures, US President George W Bush has a newer, leaner, meaner, adrenaline-packed "Made in France" version of his favorite ally in all things "war on terror". President Nicolas Sarkozy has wasted no time in joining the demonize-Iran campaign, and is taking trans-Atlantic entente to new levels. - Pepe Escobar (Aug 29, '07)

Robots replace trigger fingers in Iraq
The US government will spend about US$1.7 billion on ground-based military robots between fiscal 2006 and 2012, and the military has deployed thousands of robotic systems to Iraq and Afghanistan. They all have a human operator somewhere in the loop, but that may change soon. Welcome to a new Terminator-like world where robots decide whom, where and when to kill. - David Isenberg (Aug 28, '07)

'Critics' give Bush a 'surge'
The US mainstream media have wasted no time in hyping the opinions of two so-called "critics" of the White House's Iraq strategy who say the war in that country "just might" be won. But the two opinion makers have a long track record of supporting the war, and a less optimistic point of view by seven GIs in Iraq also published in the New York Times has been received by silence. (Aug 27, '07)

Playing politics with (and in) Iraq
US politicians, including President George W Bush and Senator Hillary Clinton, are giving Nuri al-Maliki a hard time, pointing out what for many is already obvious - the Iraqi premier is simply not up to the job of stabilizing Iraq. Maliki has hit back sharply at his American critics, while on the domestic front he is trying to score points with disenchanted Sunnis over the death of former president Abdul-Rahman Aref. Meanwhile, record numbers of Iraqis are dying. - Sami Moubayed (Aug 27, '07)

New 'surge' report paints grim picture
A new US intelligence study tosses a bone to US President George W Bush's hopes for Iraq, but the overall tone is not promising, particularly the increasingly "precarious" future of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's Shi'ite government. - Jim Lobe (Aug 24, '07)

Bush: In the footsteps of Napoleon
There are eerily familiar resonances between Napoleon Bonaparte's invasion of Egypt in 1798 and the US invasion of Iraq in 2003. Both began with supreme arrogance and ended as fiascoes. Above all, the leaders of both occupations employed the same political vocabulary and rhetorical flimflammery. But at least Napoleon looked to the future and saw the breakup of the Ottoman Empire. Bush's neo-colonialism swam against the tide of history, and its failure is all the more criminal for having been so predictable. - Juan Cole (Aug 24, '07)

Taliban, US in new round of peace talks
Taliban commanders, Pakistani and American intelligence members, and Afghan authorities are involved in talks to revive and extend peace deals in selected parts of Afghanistan. The Taliban are being offered the prospect of greater political representation both in Kabul and provincially, while Afghanistan will be able to push ahead with infrastructure projects, such as a major pipeline from Turkmenistan via Afghanistan to Pakistan. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Aug 20, '07)

US marches closer to war with Iran
From Bosnia to Afghanistan to Iraq, the US military and intelligence have cooperated with the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps, which Washington now wants to declare a terrorist outfit. This collaboration will end, leaving the US "unfettered" for a strike on Iran. And despite what some may think, a "war of attrition" with low-intensity clashes is not possible. It can only be all-out war. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Aug 17, '07)

Maliki seeks a lifeline in Syria

As a refugee from Saddam Hussein, Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki was a guest of Syria, which he visits next week. He is expected to deliver some diplomatic payback by starting to work with, rather than against, Damascus. And he could well receive an invaluable lesson in how to resist occupation.- Sami Moubayed (Aug 17, '07)

Afghanistan's ball back in Pakistan's court
The United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization might not admit it outright, but the recent peace jirga in Afghanistan makes it clear that there is no military solution to the Afghanistan problem. But to make the peace process work, the US will have to depend on the military leadership in Pakistan - and President General Pervez Musharraf in particular. - M K Bhadrakumar (Aug 17, '07)

US gambles on Iran's 'soldiers of terror'
Washington's proposed designation of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps as a terrorist organization would authorize the US to target the elite military branch's business dealings. But the real impact is likely to be political. The United States' efforts to engage Tehran on Iraq are seriously compromised, while the move will strengthen those who believe that stability in the Middle East can only be achieved through Iran's containment and defeat. - Trita Parsi (Aug 16, '07)

Missing US arms probe goes global
What began as a "bookkeeping error" regarding discrepancies in the numbers of rifles and pistols given to Iraqi security forces by the Pentagon is now raising further unanswered questions regarding Bosnia, an Italian anti-Mafia investigation, and a notorious Russian arms dealer. - David Isenberg (Aug 16, '07)

A stumble over the 'W' word in Afghanistan
The recently concluded peace jirga in Afghanistan sent a strong message to the international community, and especially the administration of President George W Bush, when it called for greater dialogue with the Taliban. But the issue of foreign troops in Afghanistan - and Pakistan's behind-the-scenes support for their withdrawal - remains a major obstacle. (Aug 16, '07)

US 'surges', soldiers die. Blame Iran
Growing numbers of US forces in Baghdad are being killed or injured in attacks by Shi'ite militias with links to Iran. The US says this is because of a "surge" in Iranian assistance aimed at ousting the Americans from Iraq, despite there being no new evidence to back up the claim. It could simply be that the US soldiers are dying because they have significantly stepped up operations against Shi'ites in the capital. - Gareth Porter (Aug 15, '07)

THE ROVING EYE
Highlights of the (not so) silly season 
France's new president is the best-loved Frenchman in the US since Lafayette; French newspapers have simply erased the Iraq war from their pages; mini-Eiffel Towers made in China for 10 cents and sold by immigrant Africans in front of the real thing (which itself is surrounded by Chinese-owned real estate) can be had for a mere US$5. Yet all is not well in France. And in Iran, things are even sillier - and nastier. - Pepe Escobar (Aug 15, '07)

DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
Billions in waste and not a dime's difference
There is plenty of fodder for Democratic presidential candidates who want to exploit the Bush administration's love affair with the Pentagon. But, in most cases, the Democrats speak of increasing the defense budget or spending "smarter", not slashing it. (Aug 15, '07)

DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
Escalation in Iraq by the numbers
It's a frightening amount and it only adds up to one sum: disaster, despite what the White House spin doctors may say. - Tom Engelhardt (Aug 14, '07)

Iran plays the Central Asia card
President Mahmud Ahmadinejad's tour of Central Asia will give a timely boost to a hitherto neglected aspect of Iran's foreign policy, which has been more preoccupied with the volatile Persian Gulf and Iraq. His visit will reinforce Iran's image in that region as a pillar of cooperation and stability. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Aug 14, '07)

Japan's opposition flexes its muscles
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's party's recent electoral defeat could spell the end for Japanese cooperation in the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Opposition leader Ichiro Ozawa is adamant that the Upper House he now controls will not allow continued participation in the US-led coalition. Ozawa may be a conservative, but he doesn't want Japan to be a handmaiden to the US. (Aug 14, '07)

Jirga sidesteps Pashtun radicalization
The peace jirga that concluded in Kabul this weekend is the first step in starting dialogue and building confidence between Afghanistan and Pakistan. But the main threat to their stability - the intensive radicalization of Pashtun tribes at the hands of the Taliban and al-Qaeda - remains to be addressed. - Haroun Mir (Aug 13, '07)

Taliban a step ahead of US assault
Almost overnight, dozens of Taliban and al-Qaeda bases and training camps in Pakistan have become deserted. Key commanders have relocated to other parts of Pakistan and to Afghanistan ahead of an expected attack by US and Pakistani forces. The Taliban are ready for a fight, but on battlegrounds of their choosing. Islamabad does not relish the prospect. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Aug 10, '07)

Turkey's Kurdish worries deepen
If Turkey had its way, it would send its troops into northern Iraq without delay to deal once and for all with Kurdish militants based there. It's not as simple as that, however. The Kurdish autonomous region in Iraq has emerged as a power-broker in fractured Iraq and, more important, it has the backing of the United States, which opposes any form of Turkish intervention. Ankara will have to stay its hand for now. - M K Bhadrakumar (Aug 10, '07)

US diplomacy with Iran is working
By any impartial analysis, the US-Iran meetings in Baghdad are bearing fruit in terms of enhanced cooperation on the nuclear issue and Iraqi security. But that's probably the last thing leftover neo-cons want to hear, since it undercuts their rationales for war. The fact that diplomacy is working, slowly but surely, requires the two things the White House apparently lacks: time and patience. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Aug 10, '07)

GERMANY, THE RE-ENGINEERED ALLY
PART 3: Hail to the chief, or else

The educated German middle classes, still hung over from their half century of ideological debauch and from Germany's role as a genocidal ogre, take great satisfaction in their country's reputation as a mostly harmless global social worker. They are reluctant to subscribe to an ideology of global mayhem and a "defense of Western values". But the German media are working overtime to change their minds.
This is the conclusion of a three-part essay by "Axel Brot". (Aug 9, '07)

 PART 1: Readiness for endless war

 PART 2: Everything is broken

How to get real regime change in Iran
The US has promoted regime change through military invasions, coups d'etat and other kinds of violent seizures of power. But the best hope for democratic change in Iran comes from its own people, who, despite the repression, are quite capable of eventually bringing down the regime and establishing a more just and democratic society. - Stephen Zunes (Aug 9, '07)

The American path to jihad
A survey of American Muslims who embrace jihadism shows they follow a common path to radicalism. Nearly all the subjects begin their journey with the kind of Salafi Islam offered by the Saudi establishment, its leading scholars, and its prestigious institutions in Mecca and Medina. To that is added tactical training at camps in Pakistan. (Aug 9, '07)

Turks take no delight in Maliki visit
During his visit to Turkey this week, Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki assured his hosts he is working against Kurdish militias launching terrorist attacks from Iraqi territory into Turkey. The Turks remain skeptical, given that Maliki's job is hanging by a thread and the only allies he has left are the Kurds in Iraq. - Sami Moubayed (Aug 9, '07)

GERMANY, THE RE-ENGINEERED ALLY
PART 2: Everything is broken
Forces that oppose or even appear to question American interests face a simple choice: "The US or chaos." Not only the lessons of Iraq and Afghanistan, but the failed attempts of Serbia, Iran and Syria to bow to US/Western demands make it clear that it is next to impossible to choose and still maintain a measure of independence and dignity. Germany, however, has chosen the former.
This is the second part of a three-part essay by "Axel Brot". (Aug 8, '07)

 PART 1: Readiness for endless war

Giving peace a chance in Afghanistan
More than 700 people from Afghanistan and Pakistan, mostly tribal elders and Islamic clerics, begin three days of talks in Kabul on Thursday in an unprecedented attempt to address - and find solutions to - the problems of militancy. This is one prong of US efforts to settle the region, the other being military attacks inside Pakistan against Taliban and al-Qaeda bases. Both initiatives underestimate the nexus between the Taliban and their secular ethnic Pashtun "brothers". - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Aug 8, '07)

A new oil crisis? Not so fast
A new report from the ranking Republican on the Joint Energy Committee of the US Congress takes a different line from conventional wisdom and says that should Iran disrupt oil supplies in the Strait of Hormuz, the US economy has the ability to withstand it. - David Isenberg (Aug 8, '07)

GERMANY, THE RE-ENGINEERED ALLY
Part 1: Readiness for endless war
Not long ago, expectations that Europe might step up as a counterweight to US imperial policies focused on Germany, as a known moderating, non-military force in international politics. But now "Old Europe", led by Germany with France close behind, is in a hurry to kiss and make up with Washington after their estrangement. There are "old hands" within the German establishment who are looking with dismay at this evolution of German policies. Their warning voices, though, are largely unheard amid the narrative of the terrorist menace, which serves to propel and legitimize Germany's readiness for endless war. "Axel Brot" speaks for them. (Aug 7, '07)

This is the first part of a three-part essay.

Taliban in no hurry over Korean hostages
The longer the 21 South Korean hostages are held by the Taliban in Afghanistan, the wider the gap grows between Seoul on the one side and Washington and Kabul on the other over how to deal with the problem. The big winners are the Taliban, while the crisis also plays into the hands of the North Koreans. -  Donald Kirk (Aug 7, '07)

The Saudi arms deal: Why now?
If the US had announced a $20 billion arms sale to Saudi Arabia shortly after the fall of Baghdad, it would have looked as if it was playing from strength. Now that the Saudis are undercutting every US goal in the Middle East, it smacks of desperation. (Aug 7, '07)

DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
Dying in vain or for George W's daddy?
Supporting the troops is easy to do when all it involves is a bumper sticker. The catchphrase rings hollow, though, when it involves no personal sacrifice and is used as political bait. Most of all it trivializes a more complex, dark and tragic reality. - Julian Delasantellis (Aug 6, '07)

Taliban hold Afghanistan hostage
The Taliban have garnered widespread publicity - and rewards - by kidnapping foreigners in Afghanistan, and they promise to continue with the "very successful policy", which hits at the heart of reconstruction and aid projects. - Haroun Mir (Aug 6, '07)

Ahmadinejad's bureaucratic revolution
Iran's President Mahmud Ahmadinejad is promising "revolutionary changes" in the country's diplomacy in the next few months, leading to a significant improvement in the country's external affairs. Reforms to another vital bureaucratic rampart, economic management, are in full swing, moving Iran away from the rigid five-year plans that have stifled the economy. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Aug 6, '07)

Iran faces challenges from within
An umbrella organization of anti-regime movements based in Iran and the diaspora is cause enough for Tehran to be concerned. In addition, US planners are likely to use the threat of aiding active insurgent groups as an effective lever over Iran. (Aug 6, '07)

SCO is primed and ready to fire
As an attention-getter, exercises involving the militaries of all the members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, spearheaded by China and Russia, take some beating. But the group's real explosive power will be on show at its summit meeting, where it will alarm the US by flexing muscles over Afghanistan, and more, flirting with Iran. - M K Bhadrakumar (Aug 3, '07)

REGIME CHANGE, MIDDLE-EAST STYLE Abbas staring at oblivion Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas violated the one true principle that motivated every one of his predecessors when he set out to divide the Palestinian nation by turning his back on the people in Gaza. In crossing that line he has sealed his fate. - Mark Perry (Aug 3, '07) Maliki is out on his feet Thirteen out of 37 ministers in Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's cabinet have walked out, and more are likely to follow soon. This leaves him with no Sunnis, and no representatives of "kingmaker" Muqtada al-Sadr. Maliki's days are clearly numbered, and already candidates are positioning themselves to take over the premiership, with secular Shi'ite Mahdi al-Hafez an early front-runner. - Sami Moubayed (Aug 3, '07)

Koreans want answers in hostage crisis
With two South Korean hostages killed and another 21 still in the hands of the Taliban after being captured more than two weeks ago, increasingly anxious - and angry - relatives want someone to blame. There's the church that allowed the hostages to travel to Afghanistan in the first place, and the governments in Seoul and Kabul for not breaking the deadlock. For many, though, Washington holds the key. (Aug 3, '07)

US demands Iran rein in Shi'ite militias
In public the Bush administration accuses Iran of supplying arms for insurgents in Iraq. However, recent statements after the latest US-Iran meeting in Baghdad suggest a different concern. Washington wants Tehran to use its influence with Shi'ites to stop attacking occupation forces. This doesn't fit well with the neo-con plan to expand the war by hyping "evidence" of an arms trail. - Gareth Porter (Aug 3, '07)

Iraq bleeds US, enriches contractors
The US is spending more than 10% of its budget on the Iraq war, and it ultimately could cost taxpayers more than US$1 trillion when the carnage is finally totaled up. Meanwhile, several of Washington's biggest defense contractors are rolling in dough from their work in Iraq and Afghanistan. (Aug 3, '07)

Iran feels the chill of cold war
Just as the United States armed its authoritarian, at times bloodthirsty, allies in the name of anti-communism during the Cold War, the same logic now operates in the name of containing Iran. There is no doubt that Tehran feels strategically threatened, making it certain that it will not concede an inch in its talks with Washington over stabilizing Iraq. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Aug 2, '07)

Obama talks tough on terror
Trailing Senator Hillary Clinton in the race for the Democratic nomination for next year's US presidential race, Senator Barack Obama is trying to play catch-up by renewing his attacks on President George W Bush's anti-terror campaign and saying that if he were president he would not hesitate to strike in Pakistan. Whether the get-tough message appeals to US voters, however, remains to be seen. - Jim Lobe (Aug 2, '07)

US has a lose-lose dilemma in Iraq
From the way violence simply floods into areas just beyond the reach of new US combat brigades to the perilously long supply lines on bomb-planted roads, a military "solution" to the Iraqi situation is worse than impossible: it guarantees the country's instability will be prolonged, with no end in sight. - Michael Schwartz (Aug 2, '07)

Asia a casualty of the Iraq war
US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice went to Cairo when she should have gone to Manila for an important regional meeting; President George W Bush is staying in Washington instead of going to Singapore to meet Asian leaders. This business of stiffing important Asian meetings is becoming a habit, and one that will ultimately harm US interests in Asia. (Aug 2, '07)

A shot in the arm for Lebanon
The United States' latest peace initiative in the Middle East includes distributing US$43 billion in weaponry to selected "allies". This does not involve Lebanon, which remains an open sore of violence and political discord. Under France's new leadership, Paris is attempting its own cure by engaging all of the people who matter, including Syria and Hezbollah. - Sami Moubayed (Aug 1, '07)

Slaving away for Uncle Sam
The Bush administration faces disturbing reports that Kuwaiti contractors building the new US mega-embassy in Baghdad are constructing it on the backs of near-slave workers, some of whom had no idea they were bound for Iraq. - David Isenberg (Aug 1, '07)

Al-Qaeda's theological enforcer
Since escaping from US custody in Afghanistan two years ago, Libyan Abu Yahya al-Libi has emerged as al-Qaeda's attack dog to engage those deemed to be enemies of the concept of jihad. These include Hamas and the worldwide Islamic clerical and scholarly establishment. The latter are shamed into getting out of their armchairs to join the mujahideen in the battlefield. - Michael Scheuer (Aug 1, '07)

July 2007