January 2008

Bombs away over Iraq: Who cares?
When, in April 1937, the German Condor Legion dropped 45,000 kilograms of explosives on the Spanish town of Guernica, international outrage followed, and Pablo Picasso was inspired to paint his now famous Guernica. When the US Air Force recently loosed 45,000 kilograms of bombs on a small Sunni farming district in Iraq, there was hardly a peep. These days, only "insurgent" suicide bombings warrant media attention, while the US's air "surge" is politely played down. - Tom Engelhardt (Jan 31, '08)

SPEAKING FREELY
Towards a new 'Suez crisis'
Just as threats to the pound forced Britain to climb down during the Suez canal crisis in 1956, pressure on the dollar could force a change in the United States' attitude towards Iran. - Alan G Jamieson (Jan 31, '08)

Mission creep in Afghanistan
The new-wave United States counter-insurgency approach looks a lot like old-school peacekeeping as the military reaches out to Afghanistan's younger generation. Troops on the ground tell Philip Smucker that taking the fight to the enemy these days is not simply a matter of firing off bombs and bullets. (Jan 31, '08)

US plays matchmaker to Pakistan, Israel
There was nothing coincidental about Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf and Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak bumping into each other in a Paris hotel. The United States - in the form of Senator Joseph Lieberman - is pushing Pakistan to upgrade its relationship with Israel. First, Musharraf has to convince Barak that Islamabad does not threaten Israel's security directly, or in league with a third country such as Iran. - M K Bhadrakumar (Jan 30, '08)

Shootout echoes across Pakistan
Karachi police thought they were on the trail of common bank robbers. Instead, they were met by an onslaught from light machine guns and rocket-propelled grenades. After five hours of fierce exchanges, two policemen and two gunmen were dead. And Pakistan had been given a graphic demonstration that the al-Qaeda-linked militant group Jundullah is ready to take its struggle to the country's major cities. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Jan 30, '08)
 
Race for sanctions on Iran speeds up
The US and its allies, worried about a new International Atomic Energy Agency report that is expected to confirm there is no evidence of military diversion from Iran's nuclear activities, are pushing hard for more United Nations sanctions on Tehran. This sets the stage for a let down at the IAEA, and a showdown in the Persian Gulf. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Jan 30, '08)

CAMPAIGN OUTSIDER
Straight to McCain's blind spot
John McCain's Florida Republican primary win clearly boosts his battle for victory in November. The former navy flier and prisoner of war in Vietnam has many admirable qualities that make him a formidable candidate. But he has a blind spot on Iraq. (Jan 30, '08)

A new column by Muhammad Cohen, focusing on the US presidential campaign from afar.

THE ROVING EYE
The state of the (Iraqi) union
It's more a state of disunion in Iraq, where George W Bush's invasion has left a divided nation in anger, sorrow and shambles. Not one of his possible successors has detailed a realistic plan to extricate the US from the quagmire. - Pepe Escobar (Jan 29, '08)

Taliban find fertile new ground
Once a relatively calm area in Pakistan's tribal areas, Mohmand Agency is fast becoming a hotbed for pro-Taliban militants, whose attacks on military and government installations are growing. A deep-rooted anti-Americanism also makes the area ripe for jihadi recruitment and teenage suicide bombers. (Jan 29, '08)

US homes in on militants in Pakistan
With or without Pakistan's approval, the United States is set on striking at Taliban and al-Qaeda militants inside Pakistan. The completion of a new US military base in Afghanistan's Kunar province, just a few kilometers from the Pakistan border, will make such attacks all the easier. For the militants in the crosshairs, the response is likely to be stepped up efforts to drive a wedge between Washington and Islamabad by attacking NATO supply lines. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Jan 29, '08)

A bitter taste to Iraqi reality
With rare exceptions, the media have had a hand in erasing the catastrophe of Iraq from the American landscape, if not the collective consciousness of the public. In vivid and unvarnished manner, Dahr Jamail, offers voices from an ongoing lost war in Iraq. (Jan 28, '08)

Sharif picked to tame Pakistan's militancy
Both the Pakistan government and the United States admit to "gaps in intelligence" about militants, to the extent Islamabad fears an imminent country-wide clash between security and extremist forces. The remaining political hope to address the problem is former premier Nawaz Sharif. The race is now on to broker a deal between Sharif and his nemesis, President Pervez Musharraf. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Jan 25, '08)

SPEAKING FREELY
Forget about war with Iran?
While some Beltway pundits are applauding the George W Bush administration's apparent rethinking of its plans to bomb Iran, their cheers may be premature. What if Israel got the "yellow light" and the US backed its faithful ally? Stranger things have happened - like two planes flying into the World Trade Center. - Leon Hadar (Jan 25, '08)

BOOK REVIEW
Black turbans rebound
Koran, Kalashnikov and Laptop by Antonio Giustozzi
In this revealing book, the  reasons for the resurgence of the "new" Taliban in Afghanistan are made clear. The internal weaknesses of the Afghan state - particularly the limp-wristed administration of President Hamid Karzai - opened the window for the insurgents to re-establish themselves. They also have less rigid attitudes than their 1994-2001 predecessors towards technologies like the Internet and video production. - Sreeram Chaulia (Jan 25, '08)

US MILITARY BREAKS RANKS, Part 2
Troops felled by a 'trust gap'
Many in the military are unclear who's in charge or what the overall strategy is. This lack of faith in the nation's most senior commanders - such as in Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman Navy Admiral Michael Mullen, who would be czar - by those who actually have to give the orders that send soldiers to their deaths has created a "trust gap". And it is this, not the Iraqi insurgency, that is killing the American military. - Mark Perry (Jan 23, '08)
This is the conclusion of a two-part report.

 PART 1: A salvo at the White House

Taliban wield the ax ahead of new battle
With yet another spring offensive in Afghanistan drawing close, Taliban leader Mullah Omar has "sacked" Pakistani Taliban chief Baitullah Mehsud. This will leave the al-Qaeda-linked Mehsud to fight a lone battle against Pakistani forces in the tribal areas, while the Taliban aim to consolidate their gains of last year, as well as go after NATO's vital supply lines. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Jan 23, '08)

Concerned Iraqi citizens shoot straight
In Diyala province north of Baghdad, "concerned local citizens" - mostly Sunnis - are proving resilient backup for US operations against al-Qaeda. Comprising former resistance fighters, the popular forces now enjoy a respect that the Iraqi army and police never had. - Ali al-Fadhily and Dahr Jamail (Jan 23, '08)

NATO hears 'noise before defeat'
US Defense Secretary Robert Gates' extraordinary attack on North Atlantic Treaty Organization efforts in Afghanistan - "they need to do a better job" - highlights Washington's frustration at what is no longer a winnable war against the Taliban. Enter Britain's Lord Ashdown as the United Nations' super envoy to Kabul. The White House reposes confidence in him; he takes counseling and directions from London, which coordinates with Riyadh and Islamabad, and he understands the heart of the problem: Pashtun alienation. - M K Bhadrakumar (Jan 18, '08)

THE RISE AND RISE OF AL-QAEDA, Part 2
Talking to the wrong people
Beyond dropping bombs, British efforts in Afghanistan have revolved around courting the Taliban, but without their leader Mullah Omar and any al-Qaeda-linked elements. The approach - opposed by the United States - has yielded few results, and serves as an object lesson for the new United Nations envoy to Kabul, Lord Ashdown. - Syed Saleem Shahzad
This is the conclusion of a two-part report. (Jan 18, '08)

DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
The corpse on the gurney
Although the media are now in rapt discussion about just how "successful" President George W Bush's "surge" has been, the reality is much more grave. After doctoring by Bush's "undertakers", moribund Iraq has a faint glow of life, but it won't just get up and walk away, and neither, it seems, will the United States. - Tom Engelhardt (Jan 18, '08)

BOOK REVIEW
A fresh look at terrorism's roots
Leaderless Jihad by Marc Sageman
Everything the George W Bush administration purports to know about the roots of terrorism is wrong, and a book that boldly goes where none has gone before explains why. Case studies show what various members of al-Qaeda have in common - and it's not what White House experts would have us believe. - David Isenberg (Jan 18, '08)

THE RISE AND RISE OF AL-QAEDA, Part 1
Militants make a claim for talks 
Wednesday's capture by hundreds of militants of a fort in Pakistan near the Afghan border is al-Qaeda's sharp response to Islamabad's efforts to make peace with certain elements of the Pakistani Taliban. Any peace overtures, al-Qaeda says, must be made directly to it. Otherwise, it's all-out war on the state of Pakistan. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Jan 17, '08)

'War of ideas' claims neo-con casualty
As the Pentagon's top expert on Islamic law and extremism, Stephen Coughlin delivered tough and blunt reports. He was, some say, the model soldier in Washington's "war of ideas". Others say he was grossly unqualified and ultimately "hoisted by his own jihad". Either way, Coughlin has been sacked for being too politically inconvenient for an administration eager to make nice with Muslim groups. (Jan 17, '08)

The 'war on terror' moves East
The Pentagon is sending 3,200 marines to Afghanistan to help quell the upsurge in insurgent violence in the Pashtun-dominated southern and eastern provinces. The move is not without flaws and detractors in Afghanistan, where atrocities committed by marines are still fresh in the minds of many. Meanwhile, the US's decision to send 18 F-16 warplanes to neighboring Pakistan highlights the George W Bush administration's "skewed" approach to Islamabad. - Jason Motlagh and Jim Lobe (Jan 16, '08)

DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
Military cohesion, social discord
Unit cohesion in the US military, as evidenced in Iraq, is not entirely the result of the Pentagon learning the harsh lessons of the Vietnam War. It is also being accomplished at the cost of less societal cohesion at home in America, with ever-widening polarization between the rural and urban population centers. - Julian Delasantellis (Jan 16, '08)

Gulf allies turn their backs on Bush From the "Filipino Monkey" non-incident involving US warships and Iranian speedboats to the reported - true or not - visit by a senior Iranian military official to the Green Zone in Baghdad, the George W Bush administration is being made to look foolish. Meanwhile, Tehran, by ignoring Washington's rhetoric and letting the chief of the United Nations' nuclear watchdog do the talking, has effectively undercut Bush's diplomatic moves in the region. - M K Bhadrakumar (Jan 15, '08) Smart bombs, dangerous ideas President George W Bush's visit to Saudi Arabia coincides with a push to get a US Congress green light for a Gulf Security Dialogue deal worth some $20 billion in weaponry. For the US, it's a return to arms-peddling form: plying "moderate" Arab states with weapons to coax a de facto coalition with Israel to "fight back extremism" - and Iran. Yet the US has previously had little luck in doing this. - David Isenberg (Jan 15, '08)

Legal mist stokes US-Iran tension in strait
Once again, US President George W Bush has pulled no punches in describing Iran as a threat to world security and the leading state sponsor of terror. In turn, the recent incident in the Strait of Hormuz involving Iranian speedboats and US Navy vessels - seemingly in Iranian, not international waters - gives Tehran political and legal leverage to wring concessions from the US Navy over its activities in the sensitive area.
- Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Jan 14, '08)

Iraq's Sunnis reclaim lost ground
For beleaguered Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, yesterday's friends have become today's enemies. The Kurds, who for a long time have kept Maliki in office, are thoroughly disenchanted. So the premier has turned to his traditional foes, the Sunnis, for support. The bill passed in Parliament on Sunday to allow former Ba'ath party members to reclaim their positions in the bureaucracy could not have come at a better time for Maliki. - Sami Moubayed (Jan 14, '08)

Pakistan takes a step backwards
From Pakistan's point of view, the best way to avoid an extremist backlash and quell all talk of its nuclear arsenal falling into militant hands, is to back off from the tribal areas on the border with Afghanistan, where its military is battling the Pakistani Taliban and al-Qaeda. Instead, there is now talk of renewed peace dialogue, even though this is exactly what the United States does not want. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Jan 11, '08)

Bin Laden turns heat on Saudi Arabia
In his latest message, Osama bin Laden asserts that Saudi Arabia's Afghanistan-like intervention in Iraq is preventing the mujahideen unity he desires. This raises the very unpalatable necessity of al-Qaeda having to break with its traditional grand strategy and move to try to destroy the Saudi regime. - Michael Scheuer (Jan 11, '08)

A man-made storm in a strait
The incident involving Iranian speed boats and three US Navy vessels has served well to keep the pressure on Iran as being a threat. Yet new evidence suggests the "confrontation" did not involve any menace to the US ships and that no US commander was on the verge of firing at the Iranian boats. - Gareth Porter (Jan 11, '08)

US beats a Middle East policy retreat
With its "new Middle East" policy in tatters, the US is attempting to readjust some of its positions. But the US failures - both military and moral - have led the region's capitals to re-examine their priorities, even as President George W Bush comes knocking at the door.  (Jan 11, '08)

Captain Ahab and the Islamic whale
Unremitting rhetoric from the George W Bush administration, compounded by the "incident" in the Persian Gulf involving Iranian speed boats and the US Navy, has unquestionably resulted in "mounting tensions with Iran". Against this backdrop, Bush's seven-nation Middle East trip is aimed to yield a gainful harvest in terms of coalition-building against the "Iran threat".
- Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Jan 10, '08)

COMMENT
The three Rs: Rivalry, Russia and 'Ran
The declining United States-Russia relationship (and that of Europe and Russia) does not occur in a strategic vacuum. If the US wants to calm Iran's nuclear ambitions, it is going to need to brush up on its diplomatic basics. This means that Moscow has to be convinced its long-term interests are best served by full-fledged cooperation with the West. - Robert D Blackwill (Jan 10, '08)

Pakistan wrestles with a 'soldier of peace'
Suspected in the assassination of Benazir Bhutto and blamed for 80% of last year's suicide bombings in Afghanistan, 34-year-old Pakistani Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud is a jihadi on the move. He's said to command 20,000 fighters and is being called al-Qaeda's triggerman in the strategic border region with Afghanistan. (Jan 10, '08)

DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
Oil at $100 vs the 'war on terror'
Imagine that the "war on terror" succeeds. Al-Qaeda and other like-minded or wannabe terrorist groups are wiped off the face of the Earth. Yet this war has come to be seen as the key to the magic kingdom, the lever with which the planet could be pried open for American dominion. Would the world suddenly be a better place?
- Tom Engelhardt (Jan 10, '08)

Iraq faces up to life beyond the 'surge'
Exactly a year after the launch of the "surge", anticipated drawbacks and downward casualty trends are expected to give President George W Bush the upper hand on Iraq in the next few months. But the situation could just as easily crumble, especially over the issue of a formal agreement for the long-term presence of US troops. (Jan 10, '08) 

Bush's last throw against Iran
President George W Bush sets off on his seven-nation Middle East odyssey virtually with empty hands. This is unfortunate for the region's peace process, but then Bush's principal aim is to keep the heat on Iran. All the same, even without the possibility of Russia supplying Tehran with medium-range S-300 surface-to-air missiles, Washington is beginning to grasp that it has no option but to negotiate with the Iranians.
- M K Bhadrakumar (Jan 9, '08)

A game of chicken in the Persian Gulf
Five Iranian speedboats against a frigate, a destroyer and a cruiser - all of them well armed - of the US Navy. It turned out to be a no-contest, with the Iranians backing off at the last seconds. Yet the incident in the Persian Gulf serves as a reminder of how volatile the region is should anyone want to exploit it. - David Isenberg (Jan 9, '08)
 
All together now, US troops stand firm
Strewn throughout America's wartime history is the myth of the melting-pot platoon. From D-Day to Danang, popular culture has eulogized the hardscrabble, eclectic bunch that survives combat through camaraderie. But after years of unpopular conflict, the US troops' remarkably strong cohesion in Iraq and Afghanistan defies predictions of diminishing morale and manpower, and has Vietnam veterans puzzled and recruiters pleased. - Brian M Downing (Jan 9, '08)

US wants Pakistan to bite the bullet
Pakistan has denied it will allow US troops to operate on its territory against militants, but this does not mean it won't happen. With the Pakistani Taliban consolidating supply lines to Afghanistan, and al-Qaeda cementing its bases in the tribal areas, the George W Bush administration is straining at the leash to take action. For President Pervez Musharraf, though, the country's internal security is at stake. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Jan 8, '08)

COMMENT
The dark side of Iraq war cheerleader
One-time cheerleader for the Iraq war, for Vice President Dick Cheney and for Cheney's disgraced former chief of staff Lewis "Scooter" Libby, Middle Eastern scholar Fouad Ajami continues to dodge intellectual accountability. Despite being proven wrong on myriad counts, Ajami's reputation remains largely intact, even as he calls for a "darker" vision of how to deal with Muslim countries. (Jan 8, '08)

Syria and the two Michels
At the urging of the Arab League, the six-week presidential deadlock in Beirut has been broken by a new power-sharing pact that neatly divides influence between Lebanese adversaries. But on the sidelines, Damascus is beaming. Upcoming president Michel Suleiman is a pro-Hezbollah voice that many believe will block anti-Syrian legislation. In Tehran, the mood is more sombre - its man lost out. - Sami Moubayed (Jan 8, '08)

Dolphins: Iran's weapon against the US
A US court's decision to place rigid limits on the US Navy's use of mid-frequency sonar off the coast of southern California is aimed to protect whales and dolphins. Should the navy be forced to similarly curtail its activities elsewhere, its global operations will be severely affected. This will especially be the case in the Persian Gulf, where the US containment of Iran involves sonic monitoring of its Russian-made submarines, and where dolphins are dying by the score. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Jan 7, '08)

Second thoughts on Charlie Wilson's War
The United States' at times bizarre political culture is well illustrated by the film Charlie Wilson's War, which even in 2007 failed to see that the Central Intelligence Agency's anti-Soviet Afghan jihad would prove a blowback disaster. "Simply put," writes Chalmers Johnson, "it is imperialist propaganda and the tragedy is that four-and-a-half years after we invaded Iraq and destroyed it, such dangerously misleading nonsense is still being offered to a gullible public." (Jan 7, '08)

Fallujah: The first Iraqi intifada
A new US Army intelligence assessment on the first battle of Fallujah explains why the insurgents were so effective three years ago, and puts forth a long list of hard lessons learned. The engagement has become a case study in military operations in urban terrain - what many consider the bloodiest of battlegrounds - and proves eerily prescient about the skill and adaptability of Iraqi insurgents. - David Isenberg (Jan 7, '08)

Pakistanis see US as greatest threat
As if the US needed another reminder of its unpopular presence, a recent survey has found that a huge majority of Pakistanis feel the US is a more dangerous threat than al-Qaeda or the Taliban. It's yet another black eye for an administration reportedly eager to ramp up covert operations in the country, a move some say could trigger "tremendous backlash". - Jim Lobe
(Jan 7, '08)

Al-Qaeda to the rescue for Bush's legacy
For the George W Bush administration, the best it can hope for in the wake of Benazir Bhutto's assassination is to pin blame for it on al-Qaeda and get on with old business. The dynamics of the region have changed, though. Overnight, Pakistan has replaced Iran on the US's radar screen. Moscow's cooperation in the "war on terror" could be conditional on Washington rolling back its containment policy toward Russia. And the US's ability to retain its trans-Atlantic leadership role is itself in the firing line. - M K Bhadrakumar (Jan 4, '08)

Back to business in Pakistan
President Pervez Musharraf's government was quick to blame al-Qaeda for the murder of Benazir Bhutto. Musharraf, however, is the chief beneficiary now that a political opposition vacuum has been created. Washington, too, can press its claims for a US military presence inside Pakistan. - F William Engdahl (Jan 4, '08)

COMMENT
Time for a u-turn in US's Iran policy
The United States' Iran policy has become virtually a non-policy in the last year of George W Bush's presidency. Efforts to isolate, curb and punish Tehran have foundered, while Iran forges closer bonds with China and Russia. The test is whether the US's containment policy can be recast along the lines of China or Russia containment and, in turn, lead to normal relations with Tehran. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Jan 4, '08)

Rice and Gates divided over Iran
Divergent views on Iran's role in Iraq add another layer of contradictions to the George W Bush administration's increasingly murky policy on the issue. Just as the State Department is softening its approach, the military command is insisting that "Shi'ite extremists and rogue elements" are "Iranian-backed". As for Iran's so-called destabilizing role, Defense Secretary Robert Gates says "the jury is out". - Gareth Porter (Jan 4, '08)

The clock ticks for Iraq's time bomb
The celebratory fireworks over New Year were something new for Iraq. The suicide bombers were not. Similarly, the problems faced by Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki remain the same. But in trying to appease the regional Sunni community by working towards rapprochement with Iraq's Sunnis, while also protecting the Shi'ites and pleasing the Kurds, there is a heightened sense of urgency, and hopelessness. - Sami Moubayed (Jan 3, '08)

A slap in the face for Parliament
The move by the Iraqi government to push a resolution through the UN Security Council to extend by another year the legal cover for foreign troops to operate in Iraq has been declared by many in the Iraqi Parliament as illegal. It is also expected to increase violence and deepen sectarian tensions. - Dahr Jamail (Jan 3, '08)

Quiet on one Pakistani front
President Pervez Musharraf, by calling in Scotland Yard to help with investigations into the death of Benazir Bhutto and by postponing elections for over a month, has gone some way towards defusing Pakistan's political crisis. In the restive tribal areas, though, militants have only one idea: war. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Jan 3, '08)

INTERVIEW
A look into Pakistan's political future
Dr Hassan Abbas
Noted Pakistani scholar and political figure Abbas, who served in the administrations of both Benazir Bhutto and President Pervez Musharraf, believes Bhutto's party will win a majority of seats in February's elections. And if Musharraf steps down, a transition to a democratically elected civilian government will certainly lead to better relations with India, Afghanistan and Iran, Abbas tells Kaveh Afrasiabi. (Jan 3, '08)

DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
Journey to the dark side
When it came to news of the George W Bush administration's torture, kidnapping and offshore imprisonment practices, 2007 ended in a deluge, not a trickle. Yet Americans have yet to come to grips with how centrally the administration has planted certain practices in the country's midst - at the very heart of governmental practice, of the news, of everyday life. - Tom Engelhardt (Jan 3, '08)

SPEAKING FREELY
A chance for redemption in Afghanistan
With the United States and NATO announcing the need for a sweeping review of operations in Afghanistan there also comes the chance for the international community to recognize and deal with the simultaneous roles Pakistan's military, intelligence agency and President Pervez Musharraf have played as both firefighters and arsonists. - Sharif Ghalib (Jan 3, '08)

Bhutto's death a blow to 'war on terror'
Even before Benazir Bhutto's assassination, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization had been planning for severe disruption of its supply lines from Pakistan into Afghanistan. The situation is now even more critical, and with Pakistan's political map no longer anything like the one dreamed up in Washington, US special forces are highly unlikely to be given Islamabad's permission to operate inside Pakistan to beef up the border. - M K Bhadrakumar (Jan 2, '08)

A legacy to be reckoned with
A lot of pious gibberish has been written about Benazir Bhutto since her killing, most of it glossing over her less than stellar performance as head of two governments and persistent allegations of corruption against those close to her. All the same, given the nature of her death and the reaction to it, her legacy may yet render a final service to Pakistan and the world. (Jan 2, '08)

Sneak peek at a desert Armageddon
A theoretical briefing just released by a Washington-based think-tank posits the various outcomes of a nuclear war between Iran and Israel as well as an Israel vs Syria scenario. Israel is the ultimate victor in all exchanges, but at a terrible cost. The only way to win is not to play. - David Isenberg (Jan 2, '08)

Al-Qaeda aims at Pakistan's heart
Benazir Bhutto is just the first major casualty in the broader plan of al-Qaeda ideologues to stamp their vision on Pakistan and its neighbor Afghanistan. From their base in the self-declared "Islamic emirates" in the tribal areas, the first task is to destroy the country's political system by undermining United States-backed elections, and anyone who stands in the way. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Dec 31, '07)

December 2007