February 2008

Pakistan, US raise militant tempo
Thursday's missile attack by a US Predator drone in the Pakistan tribal areas has a significance far beyond the dozen or so militants killed. The pilotless craft was launched from a Pakistani airbase - a first - and the targets were hit in an Islamic seminary. In the border regions, these madrassas are widely used by militants to transfer weapons and for meetings - and until now they have fallen under the intelligence radar. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Feb 29, '08)

THE ROVING EYE
A long road from Kosovo to Kurdistan
The embrace by Washington of Kosovo's declaration of independence has less to do with democracy than with hard-nosed pragmatism. The US's biggest foreign military base since the Vietnam War - Camp Bondsteel - is in Kosovo, and the region will be home to a US$1.1 billion pipeline that will get oil from the Caspian Sea ultimately to refineries in the US. Kurds in Iraq, believing Kosovo to be a precedent for an independent Kurdistan, will be disappointed: the US-sanctioned Turkish invasion of northern Iraq has seen to that. - Pepe Escobar (Feb 28, '08)

Can-do zeal drives Able Company
In far-flung areas of Nangarhar province in eastern Afghanistan, American counter-insurgency efforts are making inroads where other harder-edged fighting thrusts have failed. Platoon-sized groups from the 173rd Airborne Combat Team are enticing Afghans to throw out al-Qaeda-backed insurgents. - Philip Smucker (Feb 28, '08)

Washington reaches out to Muslim rebels
The American envoy's recent meeting with the leader of the separatist Moro Islamic Liberation Front in the Philippines signals a softening of Washington's stance on the Muslim rebel group it once considered adding to its terror blacklist. The secretive meet also hints at a larger deal in which Washington will help to broker peace in Mindanao - as long as the rebels sever ties with any groups the US has identified as terrorists, including the Abu Sayyaf. - Romer S Sarmiento (Feb 27, '08)

DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
'The world' according to Washington
According to Anglo-American rules of discourse, "the world" is the political class of Washington, London and their allies of the moment. For an example, take the recent killing of Hezbollah doyen Imad Moughniyeh, one of "the most wanted militants in the world". But, if "the world" adopted the perspective of the real world, other criminals would be worthy of the epithet "wanted the world over". - Noam Chomsky (Feb 27, '08)

A surprise show of force in Pakistan
Just when politicians were talking of adopting a softer approach towards militants, Pakistan's security forces arrested Qari Saifullah Akhtar, who had been fingered by Benazir Bhutto as the mastermind of an assassination attack against her. Akhtar certainly has a background in militancy, but he's more likely a pawn in a bigger game unfolding as a new government forms. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Feb 27, '08)

A wild Turkey chase?
The United States' Iraq policy has been pawned into Turkey's hands, just as Washington condoned Israel's incursion into Lebanon two years ago in pursuit of Hezbollah. But Turkey is likely not fated to any better prospect in northern Iraq than Israel managed in southern Lebanon. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Feb 27, '08)

The Taliban have Kabul in their sights
A surge in militant violence in Pakistan's tribal regions and another high-profile assassination are clear messages to the yet-to-be-finalized new government in Islamabad: leave the Taliban alone. The Taliban are putting the final pieces in place for an assault on the Afghan capital, Kabul, and they desperately need secure supply lines starting in Pakistan. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Feb 26, '08)

COMMENT
Pakistan's extremism starts at the top
While the election victory of Pakistan's secular opposition parties will relieve some concern over the "Talibanization" of Pakistan, the threat remains as long as Islamic extremism continues to be employed as a tool by political parties, the military and the intelligence agencies. - Chietigj Bajpaee (Feb 26, '08)

Turkey's offensive comes at a price
Turkey is clearly acting in concert with the United States and Israel over its incursion into northern Iraq to attack Kurdish rebels. As a result, Ankara can shrug off international - including Iraqi - condemnation of its actions. But there will be a cost: Turkey will be expected to play a major role as the guardian of the stability of northern Iraq, and as important, to play a bigger role in Afghanistan. - M K Bhadrakumar (Feb 25, '08)

Militants bide for time and turmoil
As Pakistan's new government takes shape, the militants are in the mountains watching. In the past they've waited for the most restless moments to attack, and some say they're at it again. The future role of President Pervez Musharraf, resentment for the raid on the Lal Masjid mosque and anger at the US military presence could all provide the insurgents with the necessary chaos for attacks. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Feb 22, '08)

Limited options for US in Pakistan
There seems to be a bipartisan understanding in Washington that the US is climbing a slippery slope in Pakistan. Balmy rhetoric about democracy is doing little to deflate an enormous groundswell of anti-Americanism or widespread opposition to the US's "war on terror". The US may have very little leeway other than depending on President Pervez Musharraf and the Pakistani military. - M K Bhadrakumar (Feb 22, '08)

DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
The Age of Barbarism Lite
One day a US museum may bear witness to how a "war on terror" adopted terror's worst traditions. Until then, George W Bush Administration fellow travellers such as Stephen Bradbury could do worse than visit Prague and compare their sensitivities with those of their Inquisition-era predecessors. - Karen J Greenberg (Feb 22, '08)


Letting go of Musharraf
Despite an election drubbing, Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf is adamant he will participate in the next administration. That's fine by Washington - beefing up Musharraf's regime to defeat terrorists has been a cornerstone of America's post-September 11 foreign policy. But the dramatic rise in terrorism in Pakistan and Afghanistan has shown the failure of this approach and Washington may now be better off putting its weight behind the new parliament and the Pakistani people. - Najum Mushtaq (Feb 21, '08)

Uncertainty on terror's 'central front'
Washington appears unsure whether Pakistan's election results are a setback to US strategic interests or an advance. Embattled President Pervez Musharraf is looking much less "indispensable" as an ally in the US's "war on terror". At the same time, close cooperation with the Pakistani military - which retired general Musharraf commanded until last fall - remains essential. - Jim Lobe (Feb 21, '08)

Asian American soldiers of conscience
The war in Iraq has thrust American soldiers of Asian ancestry into the limelight as no other US conflict has done. Aside from their Asian heritage there is another tie that these men share - one that reflects an on-going battle being fought in the halls of Congress and in countless debates around the world. Asian American soldiers have found themselves front and center in fights over the use of torture, questions of wartime ethics and conduct and even over the legality of the Iraq war itself. - Gina Hotta (Feb 21, '08)

Pakistan sifts through election aftermath
Islamabad is in the grip of political wrangling over the formation of a new government. Some big political players have made hasty retreats, content to wait and see what comes next. Not the US, however, which is mending bridges between embattled President Pervez Musharraf and his opposition rivals, and conducting secret talks with all sides. Turmoil in Pakistan puts the "war on terror" at risk and analysts say the US will do whatever it takes to revive its dwindling pulse. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Feb 20, '08)

DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA How never to withdraw from Iraq Now you see an escalating and unpopular crisis in Iraq - and now you don't. As if by magic, a lame-duck US president sporting dismally low approval ratings continues to embed the US in Iraq, while framing the failure in such a way that any thought of a quick withdrawal has ... poof! ... vanished. - Tom Engelhardt (Feb 20, '08) US military severely strained, officers say A survey of 3,400 current and former high-level US military officers has provided damning findings on America's military stature. With no end in sight for troop deployments in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere, the officers say US forces are "stretched dangerously thin" and "ill-prepared for the next fight". (Feb 20, '08)

COMMENT
'Known unknowns' of the Mugniyah killing
The perplexing Rumsfeldian logic - "we also know there are known unknowns" - applies to the killing of Hezbollah kingpin Imad Mugniyah last week in Damascus. The "known unknown" is the involvment of the Israeli Mossad. What's entirely unknown is the scope of retaliations the assassination has now set in motion. - Ramzy Baroud (Feb 19, '08)

SPENGLER
Blessed are the pre-emptors
Geert Wilders is drawing violent jihadists out of the tall grass with his movie denouncing the Koran. Along with courageous author Ayaan Hirsi Ali he also further exposes the moral bankruptcy of European governments that refuse to learn the lesson of John Brown - the importance of pre-emptive action against those who contest legitimate governments' monopoly of violence. (Feb 19, '08)

The door to Iraq's oil opens wide
Iraqi Oil Minister Hussain al-Shahristani is a singular man. He's been a top nuclear scientist, a political fugitive and a stubborn dissident who endured 10 years of torture and imprisonment. Now, Shahristani holds the key to the seemingly magical realm of Iraqi oil, and has become one of the most important and most sought-after statesmen in the world. - M K Bhadrakumar (Feb 15, '08)

TERROR THROUGH A MORAL LENS, Part 2
The star-spangled delusion
America, the self-proclaimed "home of the brave", has allowed its self-perception as the planet's moral beacon to distort an understanding of its so-called "war on terror". What is needed most in this fight is humility, because the longer Americans believe they morally deserve to be invulnerable - the more vulnerable they'll become. - David Young (Feb 15, '08)

This is the conclusion of a two-part article.
  Part 1: 'They have no honor'

Death of Hezbollah kingpin: A war awaits
The killing of leading Hezbollah strategist Imad Mughniyeh in a car bomb attack in Damascus, welcomed by the United States, which had a huge ransom on his head for suspected terror activities, deals a serious blow to Hezbollah. At the same time, the death of Mughniyeh, who was close to Iran, Syria and al-Qaeda, raises the chances of another outbreak of violence between Hezbollah and Israel. - Ehsan Ahrari (Feb 14, '08)

TERROR THROUGH A MORAL LENS, Part 1
'They have no honor'
Americans have great difficulty framing foreign policy outside the scope of values and morals. Many believe the "war on terror" is necessary because the enemy's methods, not agendas, are a serious infraction against American cultural values. Neither the US's attitudes nor tactics have caught up to the realities of this frighteningly limitless battle, and without a balance between the two, the "war on terror" will continue to fail. - David Young (Feb 14, '08)

A new force flexes muscles in Iraq
United States-backed Awakening Councils (Sahwa) in Iraq's Diyala province are biting the hand that feeds them. Unhappy with the Shi'ite police, members of the Sahwa are quitting their US$300 a month jobs in protest. The Sahwa are clearly gaining power, which threatens the government, its army and police forces. - Ahmed Ali and Dahr Jamail (Feb 14, '08)

Muqtada, the man who would be ayatollah
The decision by Iraq's Shi'ite resistance leader Muqtada al-Sadr to go back to "school" to become an ayatollah underpins a major change in the Sadrist movement's structure. Muqtada himself is on the road to gaining invaluable religious and financial capital, while his bold thinking could transform the country's political landscape. (Feb 13, '08)

Iraq's broken pieces don't fit together
About 4.5 million Iraqis (or one of every six) are either refugees in another country or internally displaced persons. This massive brain drain of professional, technical and managerial skills - in three main "surges" since the 2003 invasion - deprives Iraq of its most precious resource for repairing the damage of war and occupation, most notably in the oil and other key industries. - Michael Schwartz (Feb 12, '08)

The cat's pause
US Defense Secretary Robert Gates is in a tough spot. Caught between an Iraq-obsessed president unwilling to jeopardize a semblance of security and the US military establishment which thinks US troops are dangerously overstretched - what's a Pentagon chief to do? Defer, that's what, and risk turning the military into a "hollow force". - Jim Lobe (Feb 12, '08)

PAKISTAN AT THE POLLS
A growing voice for militants
The "war on terror" is becoming a dirty little phrase as politicians enter the home straight ahead of elections. Traditionally anti-militant postures are giving way to calls for dialogue and a return to the days when the Taliban were considered a strategic asset - exactly the opposite of everything Washington has been working for. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Feb 12, '08)

REVOLT IN PAKISTAN'S TRIBAL AREAS, Part 2
Al-Qaeda's sights on the next battlefield
It's not expected that Islamabad's ceasefire with militants in Pakistan's tribal areas will last very long - pressure for the United States is just too great. But that's not the real issue. Al-Qaeda, with its ranks bolstered by Pakistani jihadis, had designated cities as the next battleground, an al-Qaeda cell leader tells Syed Saleem Shahzad. (Feb 11, '08)

War by the rules
The release of the US government's rules of engagement for Iraq presents an unusual military precedent and a possible Pandora's box for Washington. Among other disclosures, the rules appear to authorize raids into Iran and Syria, collateral damage guidelines and could lead to a possible paper trail stretching to former defense secretary Donald Rumsfeld authorizing attacks with the potential for significant civilian casualties. - David Isenberg (Feb 11, '08)

REVOLT IN PAKISTAN'S TRIBAL AREAS, Part 1
Ceasefire: A lull before the storm
The ceasefire announced on Thursday between the al-Qaeda-linked Pakistani Taliban and Pakistani security forces in the South Waziristan tribal area offers both sides much-needed breathing space. But the United States is dead against the move as it will provide the Taliban with a haven while they consolidate for their spring offensive in Afghanistan. And al-Qaeda, mindful of the US military buildup in the area, is already looking beyond this outbreak of peace. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Feb 8, '08)

What 'Mrs Smith' didn't see in Iraq

Angelina Jolie's visit to Baghdad as a UN envoy cum caring celebrity changed nothing regarding the refugee crisis that concerns her. Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki heard out the Hollywood beauty but did nothing to answer her many concerns. He was too busy changing national holidays, ignoring his own nation's actors and actresses and, more importantly, doing nothing to alleviate the desperate straits of Iraqi women and children. - Sami Moubayed (Feb 8, '08)

Afghan peace comes at the point of a gun
The mission in Afghanistan is not one of peacekeeping, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice warns. It's about fighting extremism, and more troops are needed. At the same time, understaffed US military teams in eastern Afghanistan's violent Kunar province struggle to encourage "good governance" in the local administration. Many millions of dollars are being thrown at the problem, much of which disappears into a black hole. And indeed, many US soldiers would rather tout a gun than wrestle with nation-building. - Philip Smucker (Feb 7, '08)

The ever-changing faces of terror
First it was Osama bin Laden, then Ayman al-Zawahiri, followed by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi as the US-designated "public enemy number one". More lately, Abu Laith al-Libi and Baitullah Mehsud have been accorded the ultimate tag. It's all part of the personalization trick to cover up foreign policy fiascoes of Washington and London. - Sreeram Chaulia (Feb 7, '08)

Pakistan taken to task over al-Qaeda
Politicians in the United States and soldiers on the ground have been saying it for ages - al-Qaeda has regenerated, primarily through its safe havens in Pakistan's border areas. Now the US Director of National Intelligence has confirmed the dangers posed by al-Qaeda in that region, saying they are the US's "biggest threat". - Jim Lobe (Feb 6, '08)

Yemen still close to al-Qaeda's heart
As the ancestral home of Osama bin Laden, Yemen has always been highly valued by al-Qaeda for the "strategic depth" it affords. Now, there's talk of an "arrangement" between al-Qaeda and the government that will preserve the country's importance for al-Qaeda - and maybe even serve as a refuge of last resort if bin Laden is forced to flee South Asia. - Michael Scheuer (Feb 6, '08) 

Intrigue takes Afghanistan to the brink
Uzbek leader General Rashid Dostum's high-profile standoff with hundreds of police in Kabul at the weekend is a sure sign that Afghanistan is facing one of its gravest political crises in recent years. Spearheaded by Britain, and its calculated plot to bypass President Hamid Karzai and provide military training for "good" Taliban, Karzai is being squeezed to either follow the Western line, or get out. But the canny president could yet return the pressure, and with interest. - M K Bhadrakumar (Feb 5, '08)

INTERVIEW
When good intentions get messy
Mahmud Ali Durrani, Pakistan's US envoy
This month, Pakistan will have its "best election ever" as far as fairness is concerned, Durrani believes. On the broader stage, the relationship with the United States remains fraught with difficulties and contradictions. And most important, outside countries should not try to micromanage Pakistan. Then it only gets messy, the envoy tells Justine A Rosenthal. (Feb 5, '08)

Iran tries to make up lost ground

Iran, in reaching out to its neighbors, such as Oman, while lambasting France over its proposed military base in the United Arab Emirates, is trying to assert itself in the face of the United States' long-term presence in its region. This US incursion far outweighs the gains Tehran made from the fall of the Taliban in Afghanistan and the demise of the Ba'athists in Iraq. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Feb 4, '08)

A flea in the ear for Mullah Omar
Mullah Abdul Salaam, a former Taliban commander who has defected, now commands a virtual ghost town as district chief of Musa Qala. Despite threats to his life, Salaam quotes the Koran against Taliban leader Mullah Omar and continues to dress the part of an Islamist tribal leader while trying to restore Musa Qala's security and moribund bazaar. (Feb 4, '08)

Taliban take a hit, but the fight goes on

The killing of Abu Laith al-Libi in Pakistan by a US Predator drone deals the Taliban a severe knock. The al-Qaeda-linked Libyan, who fought shoulder-to-shoulder with his men, was the mastermind and inspiration behind most of the Taliban's successes in Afghanistan over the past few years. However, the key elements of the Taliban's spring offensive are already in place, including peace deals with the Pakistani security forces that leave the Taliban free to concentrate on the Afghan battlefield. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Feb 1, '08)

NATO winning battles, losing Afghanistan
A study on the US-led invasion of Afghanistan sees little hope of saving the state unless a strategic overhaul is enacted. The resurgence of the Taliban and the opium trade along with weak central government play against any battles NATO and US troops might win. Iran is a natural ally, but Washington's "axis of evil" stance makes any dialogue unlikely. (Feb 1, '08)

January 2008