March 2008

The day the US declared war on Iran
North Korea was a test-run for the United States' new strategy of "shock and awe" financial sanctions against Iran. On March 20, Washington initiated two acts of war: one against Iran's banks and one against any financial institution anywhere in the world that tries to do business with an Iranian bank. The next step is to designate Iran's central bank as a financial criminal; the impact of this will be the financial equivalent to the first bombs falling on Baghdad in 2003. - John McGlynn (Mar 31, '08)

Pakistan in tug of war over terror
Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gillani has boldly asserted that from now on parliament will handle all matters of national security, including the all-important "war on terror". President Pervez Musharraf and the military, backed by the United States, have other ideas, and they could use the issue of the reinstatement of the judiciary to make this clear. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Mar 31, '08)

Bush and bin Laden's virtual war
The George W Bush administration's "war on terror" could be summed up in three words - "fragmentation, diminution, destruction". That's fragmentation brought about by "creative destabilization", as in Iraq, Lebanon and Palestine; diminution of American prestige, both military and political, and thus of American power; destruction of political consensus within the US for a strong global role. And all this to the advantage of Osama bin Laden. - Mark Danner (Mar 27, '08)

SPEAKING FREELY
September 11 was a third-rate operation
From the day of the attack, evidence has accumulated that September 11, 2001, was never more than a third-rate operation. This is evident from what the plot achieved, and what it didn't attempt, or do. The American public shares the blame for the plot's success, causes and ensuing ramifications; through its collective narcissism, dereliction of responsibility, and fear. - Bohdan Pilacinski (Mar 27, '08)

Muqtada cuts free
Fighting in the south of Iraq between Muqtada al-Sadr's Madhi Army and a rival Shi'ite organization fitted in uniforms of the Iraqi security forces mark the end of Muqtada's self-imposed ceasefire. It also signals a major defeat for the US military command's strategy of weakening the Mahdi Army. - Gareth Porter (Mar 27, '08)

The fateful Battle of Baghdad
In its five years under American occupation, Baghdad has been transformed from a metropolis into an urban desert, and various American "surges" have proven, in the end, disastrous. For the residents of the battered city, it's an endless wait for the Americans to leave. - Michael Schwartz (Mar 26, '08)

Very sick, and not getting better
Thousands of doctors have fled Iraq or been killed in the five years since the US invasion. There is a woeful shortage of hospital beds and equipment, and even when patients can dodge the bullets and militias to get to a hospital, most can't afford to pay. The humanitarian situation is one of the world's most critical, a report by the International Committee of the Red Cross concludes. - Alexander Casella (Mar 26, '08)

DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
Bonfire of puppy-tossers, and the beer test
A widely viewed Internet video of a US Marine throwing a cute puppy to its death in a ditch in Iraq has Americans gnashing their teeth at the appalling actions of a native son. It's disturbing stuff, but where's America's all-consuming concern for the hundreds of thousands of dead Iraqi humans? It's this dichotomy that exposes the real reasons for the war, and the real risks that those who advocate its quick conclusion are taking. - Julian Delasantellis (Mar 25, '08)

Pakistan's new leaders target militants
Freshly installed Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gillani has already made his mark by freeing judges detained last year on President Pervez Musharraf's orders. In dealing with militancy, many expect the government to similarly unravel Musharraf's policies by treading softly. This will not mean an easy ride for al-Qaeda and radical jihadis, however. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Mar 25, '08)

Same game, new rules in Afghanistan
Obituaries for the Taliban's spring offensive are premature, though instead of trying to engage opposition forces head-on, the Taliban will open up new fronts in both Pakistan and Afghanistan. In return, North Atlantic Treaty Organization and United States-led troops will target the Taliban's safe havens straddling the border with Pakistan. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Mar 20, '08)

IRAQ FIVE YEARS ON THE ROVING EYE Shocked, awed and left to rot US Vice President Dick Cheney is spot on when he talks of "phenomenal changes" in Iraq. Millions of Iraqis have lost their homes, their jobs, their families, their dreams and in countless cases their own lives because of a pre-emptive war. And anti-American Muqtada al-Sadr will ultimately be the lord of what remains of Iraq. - Pepe Escobar (Mar 19, '08) DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA Already counting to six When it comes to the American position in Iraq, short of an act of God, the sixth anniversary of George W Bush's war of choice is going to dawn much like the fifth one, no matter who's elected US president in November. - Tom Engelhardt (Mar 19, '08)

US aims high in Afghanistan
In remote northeastern Afghanistan close to the Pakistan border, US troops fight an elusive enemy they can seldom get their hands on. They're convinced al-Qaeda fighters are involved. But until the insurgents are rooted out from the high ground they occupy, it will remain a battle of hit and miss. - Philip Smucker (Mar 19, '08)

Khomeini's grandchild breaks her silence
The outspoken views of Zahra Eshraghi, granddaughter of Ruhollah Khomeini, the leader of the Islamic revolution in Iran, have put her at odds with Tehran's conservative hardliners and have drawn a gag order from her own prestigious family. But the recent mass disqualification of reformists in the March 14 parliamentary elections and what she feels are "delusions" maintained by the current regime have moved her to break her silence. (Mar 18, '08)

Two-horse race for Pakistan's hot seat
The battle within the Pakistan People's Party, the dominant group in the new coalition government, is a race between Asif Ali Zardari, the widower of Benazir Bhutto, and party stalwart Makhdoom Amin Fahim. Zardari carries a lot of baggage, while Fahim would be the preferred candidate of President Pervez Musharraf and Washington. The "street-smart" Zardari is up for the fight. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Mar 18, '08)

Russia throws a wrench in NATO's works
President Vladimir Putin has made the North Atlantic Treaty Organization an offer it will find extremely difficult to resist - making Russia a participant in the alliance's Afghan mission. The pressure is now on the United States to embrace the idea of Russia becoming a transit route for supplies going to Afghanistan. The trouble is, Washington knows Moscow will incrementally want a bigger role for itself and its allies in Afghanistan, and those allies include China.- M K Bhadrakumar (Mar 14, '08)

Al-Qaeda steps up its battle in Pakistan
Tuesday's double suicide attacks in Lahore killed at least 30 people, but the real target - a secret underground investigative unit - was missed. Al-Qaeda will try again though, as the newly formed unit poses a direct threat to its revived battle to win hearts and minds in Pakistan. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Mar 14, '08)

'Terror' attack a warning shot for Beijing
Chinese authorities have linked the foiled hijacking of a plane bound for Beijing to independence fighters in the remote northwestern Uyghur autonomous region of Xinjiang, causing much concern about security for the Summer Olympics. The investigation has revealed a spate of other "terror" plots and sent a clear message to the government. - Fong Tak-ho (Mar 13, '08)

Fallon falls: Iran should worry
Admiral William Fallon's resignation as the United States' top commander in the Middle East removes one of the most outspoken opponents of the George W Bush administration's hard line on Iran. Defense Secretary Robert Gates immediately dismissed as "ridiculous" suggestions that Fallon's departure signaled that the US planned to go to war with Iran, but certainly now "all options" are back on the table. - Gareth Porter (Mar 12, '08)

COMMENT
American Icarus flirted with fire
The widespread view is that US CENTCOM commander Admiral William "Fox" Fallon was sacrificed by the George W Bush administration because he disagreed with its policies on Iran while also saving the US from marauding Chinese. This is bunk. Fallon fell because he committed a far worse crime for a military veteran - he talked out of turn. - Mark Perry (Mar 12, '08)

COMMENT
Big bang or chaos: What's Israel up to?
Whether Israel's military logic revolved around the "chaos theory" or the "big bang", its iron-fist intervention in Gaza was neither to send a message to the Israeli public nor to "commit genocide". Rather, Israel's plans are regional, with Gaza being a testing ground. - Ramzy Baroud (Mar 11, '08)

Musharraf faces bench's fury
The alliance that plans to form Pakistan's new government has made it clear it will reinstate all 63 senior judges sacked for refusing to recognize an emergency order introduced by President Pervez Musharraf last year. Then Musharraf will be asked to step down, and if he refuses, impeachment proceedings will be started. (Mar 11, '08)

Why Boeing lost the $40bn tanker deal
Boeing is still smarting after losing out on a US$40 billion US government contract to build a new aerial refueling tanker jet, believing it had a more cost-effective product. But that's not the point. The tankers are not just big flying bladders of fuel. They are a critical component of the George W Bush and neo-conservative foreign policy of being able to bomb any country, any time. Crucially, then, the winning design by Northrup-Grumman and the European EADS aerospace consortium has a fuel cargo capacity almost 25% greater than Boeing's. - Julian Delasantellis (Mar 10, '08)

Iran shifts focus fully on Iraq
Whether it's a part of a secret deal with the United States or not, Iran does appear to be distancing itself from its proxies in the Arab world, at the same time showing a free hand in Iraq. The days of Hezbollah in Lebanon could be numbered. - Sami Moubayed (Mar 10, '08)

An admiral takes on the White House
Admiral William Fallon, the US's top commander in the Middle East, has frequently angered the George W Bush administration by saying that the military option against Iran is "off the table". Fallon believes this is necessary to calm the very regimes, such as Egypt, the administration hopes to enlist to support its anti-Iran line. - Gareth Porter (Mar 10, '08)

US's fancy guns are trained on China
Just as the Pentagon and its corporate allies touted the "Soviet threat" during the Cold War to stampede Congress and the US public into supporting ever-increasing spending on advanced weapons, so a hypothetical "China threat" is being conjured up to achieve the same purpose - and it's costing multi-billions of dollars. - Michael T Klare (Mar 7, '08)

War is hell - and hellishly expensive
The estimated cost of one week of the United States' global wars is US$3.5 billion. But exactly where is that money going? When Congress passed the latest Pentagon war-fighting supplemental request, it was said to be "for the troops", but a surprisingly small amount goes to them. Newfangled weapons, private security contractors and big business eat up a large portion, yet hundreds of millions of dollars are unaccounted for. - William D Hartung (Mar 7, '08)

Pakistan's generals come down hard
Faced with a spike in suicide attacks on the military, Pakistan's top brass have thrown their weight behind embattled President Pervez Musharraf and his "war on terror", in the process slamming the door on any chance of reconciliation with Taliban and al-Qaeda militants. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Mar 7, '08)

Suspicions over Singapore jailbreak
The daring and as-yet unexplained escape of Singapore's most wanted terror fugitive, Mas Selamat Kastari, has called the island nation's terror-fighting credentials into question. The government's bumbling has stoked speculation of a cover-up, and until Mas Selamat is caught foreign confidence in Singapore's security will be hard to restore. - Alex Au (Mar 7, '08)

THE ROVING EYE
As alliances shift, Iran wins - again
The George W Bush administration promoted a Turkey-Israel axis, a Sunni Arab "axis of fear" and then a Saudi-Israeli nexus, always trying to isolate Iran. None of these concoctions has worked, and there are even hints that Washington and Tehran have concluded a secret deal brokered by Saudi Arabia to hammer out contentious issues. This might be fanciful, but the bottom line is that Iran sees itself as the ultimate victor of the US war on Iraq. - Pepe Escobar (Mar 6, '08)

Iran-Iraq ties show US the way
Tehran's enormous influence in Iraq is there to stay, given Iran's proximity and religious and historical connections, highlighted by President Mahmud Ahmadinejad's recent visit. This leaves the US with little choice but to adjust its anti-Iran policy to accommodate Iran's regional clout. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Mar 6, '08)

Pakistan's grand bargain falls apart
Pakistan has no option, given pressure from the United States, but to continue military operations against Taliban and al-Qaeda militants in the tribal areas. Yet under a scheme devised by the new top brass, the militants were to be given an easy ride as long as they retreated to remote border areas. Militants, initially receptive, have shown through a spate of suicide attacks on the military in cities across the country that they are having grave second thoughts. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Mar 5, '08)

The Taliban's teleban
The Taliban have started to attack mobile-phone towers in Afghanistan following their demand that telephone companies shut off all signals during the night. The Taliban's argument that occupation forces use signals to track them down doesn't make much sense; the more likely reason is to hurt the economy, of which telecommunications is one of the fastest-growing and most profitable sectors. (Mar 5, '08)

Europe alert to triple terror threat
Al-Qaeda has never made a secret of its eagerness to target Europe, but the continent faces a triple threat: al-Qaeda of the Islamic Maghreb, al-Qaeda Pakistan and the rogue, al-Qaeda-affiliated "lone jihadis" whom the French have termed just as dangerous as an entire organization. - Olivier Guitta (Mar 5, '08)

UN deepens the Iran nuclear crisis
The third round of United Nations Security Council sanctions now hanging over Iran's head in connection with its nuclear program is the harshest yet. Tehran has dismissed the measures as "legally defective". But with US and French ships in the Persian Gulf poised to carry out the interdiction of vessels suspected of carrying nuclear cargo to and from Iran, the stage is set for the next chapter - physical confrontation. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Mar 4, '08)

Sunnis make merry on US's dime
Iraq's Sunni-dominated Awakening Councils, bankrolled by the United States, have certainly blunted al-Qaeda, but they continue attacks on US and Iraqi forces. The Sunnis, using a "fight, bargain, subvert, fight" approach, are all the while working towards their ultimate goal of the complete withdrawal of US troops and reducing the power of the Shi'ite-dominated government. - Gareth Porter (Mar 4, '08)

The 'laptop of mass destruction'
The "laptop documents" - 1,000 pages of data allegedly stolen from an Iranian computer - have been the US's hardest evidence of Iran's supposed intentions to build a nuclear weapon and an obstacle to the International Atomic Energy Agency declaring that Iran has resolved all questions about its nuclear program. Now there are indications the documents were obtained from Israel's Mossad via a terrorist organization. - Gareth Porter (Mar 3, '08)

Iran makes its mark in Iraq
Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad is making the most of his red-carpet treatment in Iraq, handing out platitudes as well as the offer of a US$1 billion loan. Baghdad's government needs all the support it can get, and plenty comes from Tehran. What it does not need is Iran's backing of the al-Qaeda-backed insurgency. But for Iran, this is a separate issue that has everything to do with Afghanistan. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Mar 3, '08)

INTERVIEW
Let's talk about bombs
Matthew Bunn, non-proliferation expert
Given Iran's extended period of violating its nuclear safeguards agreement, says US award-winning Bunn, many countries will probably not accept Tehran's claim that all of the information that suggests weaponization activities is fabricated and baseless. Nevertheless, there is still room to negotiate, he tells Kaveh Afrasiabi. (Mar 3, '08)

February 2008