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 War
and Terror
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April 2008
Push comes to shove in Afghanistan
In his latest assessment, US President George W Bush admits it's going to be a
"long struggle" in Afghanistan (this after seven years of fighting the
Taliban). US Marines, fresh in the country, are venturing into uncharted
territory, while more coalition troops are being deployed. For the Taliban,
having made space for themselves in their strategic backyard in Pakistan
through dubious peace deals, a new battle has now begun. - Syed Saleem Shahzad
(Apr 30, '08)
US's Pakistan policy under fire
Appeals are growing in the United States for the George W Bush administration
to reassess its "war on terror" and Pakistan's place in it. In particular, US
policymakers are being asked to place more confidence in Islamabad's plans to
make deals with tribal leaders, even though these play into the hands of the
Taliban. - Jim Lobe (Apr 30, '08)
Iran-US talks await
new leadership era
It is unlikely that either the George W Bush administration or hardliners in
Tehran will initiate serious bilateral talks prior to the US presidential
elections in November. The prospect of dialogue with Iran seems plausible after
the vote, but only if the next US president is willing to risk strengthening
President Mahmud Ahmadinejad's hand before Iran's 2009 presidential polls.
(Apr 30, '08)
US embroiled in de-basing deal
The George W Bush administration is in crucial negotiations with the government
of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki over the future relationship between Iraq and
the United States. The core issue relates to permanent military bases, but no
one is saying so, even as a year-end deadline looms. - Daniel Smith
(Apr 29, '08)
Iran steps into enemy's territory
Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad's swing though Sri Lanka, Pakistan and
India this week takes him to capitals firmly in the United States camp. Tehran
needs a counter to the regime of sanctions and limitations imposed by the West.
The South Asian countries need Iran's business, so much so they will risk
backlashes in defying Washington's will on isolating Iran. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi
(Apr 28, '08)
Brains, not brawn, in Afghanistan
The audacious attack in Kabul on Sunday on Afghan President Hamid Karzai and
other dignitaries is another salvo in the Taliban's new phase of targeted
missions, rather than direct confrontation with the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization's war machine. In return, NATO, as evidenced by two important
recent successes against the insurgency, is becoming smarter, rather than
relying on "smart" bombs. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Apr
28, '08)
Syria bristles at US
charges
Washington's accusations that Syria and North Korea cooperated on a nuclear
site that was allegedly destroyed by an Israeli air strike last September, are
being laughed off in Damascus as another "convenient inaccuracy". The charge
would be downright funny if it didn't come with the dangerous potential of
mushrooming into war, as happened when Iraq was accused of developing weapons
of mass destruction. - Sami Moubayed (Apr 28,
'08)
DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
Selling the president's general
Just as President George W Bush's favorite general, David Petraeus, was given
another promotion by being nominated as head of US Central Command, revelations
broke of the Pentagon's extensive propaganda operation to embed retired
military officers in the mainstream US media. The two events - and the "surge"
in Iraq - are inextricably linked. - Tom Engelhardt (Apr
28, '08)
Taliban bitten by a snake in the
grass
Over the past few months, attacks in Khyber Agency in Pakistan by the Taliban
and their al-Qaeda associates on supplies destined for the Western coalition in
Afghanistan have proved highly successful. Despite operating in unfamiliar and
unfriendly territory, the Taliban managed to obtain a foothold through a tribal
leader, seemingly outwitting US intelligence. Then things went horribly wrong,
and the Khyber operation is in tatters. - Syed Saleem Shahzad
(Apr 25, '08)
 THE
ROVING EYE
Hillary, the war chick
It was
a silly question to begin with, but Democratic hopeful Hillary Clinton jumped
in boots and all, saying if she were US president and Iran attacked Israel with
nuclear weapons, she would "obliterate" Iran. Clinton's positioning spells
Imperial Washington in all its glory - and hubris. - Pepe Escobar
(Apr 25, '08)
Back to the hard line on North Korea
The US White House's revelations on North Korea's apparent collaboration in
building a nuclear reactor in Syria indicate a move by George W Bush
administration hawks to hold Pyongyang to account, just when the State
Department was poised to let the country off with a face-saving memorandum.
Seoul will be pleased. For North Korea, it's time to rattle its sabers. - Donald
Kirk (Apr 25, '08)
Recruiting the bottom of the
barrel
According to the US Congress, the number of recruits requiring a waiver to join
the US Army because of a criminal record has more than doubled since 2004, to
one of every eight new soldiers. Ominously, a link between pre-service behavior
and criminal acts while in the military has been confirmed in studies. - David
Isenberg(Apr 25, '08)
Petraeus' rise lets Cheney loose on
Iran
General David Petraeus' nomination as the new head of the US Central Command,
in place the "unpliable" Admiral William Fallon, adds a strident voice in
support of the George W Bush administration's policies toward Iran and Iraq. It
also gives Vice President Dick Cheney greater freedom of action to exploit the
option of an air attack against Iran during the administration's final months.- Gareth
Porter (Apr 24, '08)
New momentum for US-Iran dialogue
This week's summit in Kuwait of Iraq and its neighbors, although not officially
breaking any ice between Iran and the United States, points to the two
countries showing a new willingness to demonstrate their support for the
embattled Baghdad government, as well as the latter's attempts to build bridges
with its Arab neighbors. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Apr
24, '08)
US paradox of construction and
destruction
In the 1960s a construction consortium, The Vietnam Builders, completed a
nearly miraculous construction effort in South Vietnam. But Vietnam showed that
war is not the same as nation building; greater militarization only brings more
suffering and accentuates the paradox of simultaneous construction and
destruction, which unfortunately has found painful new life in Iraq. - James M
Carter (Apr 24, '08)
Israel changes tune on Iran
Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has been unequivocal recently in his
assurances that Iran will not get the bomb. This is a sea-change for the
Israeli leader, who until now has been careful to keep "all options" on the
table, and reflects the conviction that diplomatic means will be central in
stopping Tehran from going nuclear. (Apr 23, '08)
India drawn deeper into Afghanistan
Neither the poor security situation in Afghanistan nor specific Taliban attacks
on Indian project personnel is likely to persuade Delhi to downsize its
commitment to the country. On the contrary, it could result in India taking up
an offer to train Afghan soldiers in counter-insurgency, which will bring it a
step closer to military engagement of the Taliban. - Sudha Ramachandran
(Apr 23, '08)
Musharraf bolsters China-Pakistan bond
Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf's six-day trip to China was productive and
timely for the "all-weather" friends. It has buoyed the beleaguered president's
credibility while providing needed international support for Beijing. China is
Pakistan's largest arms supplier and it is no coincidence Musharraf's last stop
was to speak against extremism in China's restive Muslim province of Xinjiang.
- Pallavi Aiyar (Apr 23, '08)
Taliban reap a peace dividend
Pakistan and Britain have hailed the peace agreement with pro-Taliban cleric
Sufi Muhammad under which Sufi was released after six years in prison in
return for his group renouncing violence in Pakistan's troubled tribal
areas. For the Taliban it's good news as they will take advantage of any lull
to put the finishing touches to their spring offensive in Afghanistan. By which
time far more radical al-Qaeda-linked leaders will have rendered Sufi's
agreement meaningless. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Apr
23, '08)
Iran's 'bomb' and dud intelligence
Just as the intelligence community in the United States and Britain took a
beating over the misreading of the flow of information about Iraqi weapons of
mass destruction before the invasion of 2003, assessments on Iran's nuclear
program - which vary wildly - have aroused incredulity. At stake is a far more
dangerous war with Iran than the one with Iraq, and one that continued
intelligence failures could precipitate. - Richard M Bennett
(Apr 22, '08)
Carter spreads a new doctrine
Former US president Jimmy Carter was well received this week in Syria, where he
met a range of people, including the head of the political bureau of Hamas, a
US-listed terrorist organization. Despite Carter's stated aims, there will be
no immediate breakthroughs in the Middle East, but he does have the ear of
think-tanks and decision-makers in Washington. - Sami Moubayed
(Apr 22, '08)
Muqtada's biggest battle already
won
Popularity is the treasury of a guerrilla movement that sustains it in
asymmetrical war against conventionally superior foes. That's why Muqtada
al-Sadr's Mahdi Army, now acknowledged as the largest social welfare dispenser
in Iraq, is such a formidable force: with the people behind it, it simply
cannot be defeated, as the US is finding out. - Sreeram Chaulia
(Apr 22, '08)
Pakistan faces a lose-lose situation
The weekend release of a video of Tariq Azizuddin, Pakistan's ambassador to
Afghanistan, confirming that he has been in the hands of militants linked to
al-Qaeda since being captured in February, places Islamabad in an untenable
situation. It can either bow to the militants' extravagant demands for Tariq's
release or reverse its position and go for all-out war against militancy. The
United States would back the latter option, but it carries with it grave risks.
- Syed Saleem Shahzad (Apr 21, '08)
Room for two: US, Iran in the
Middle East
While keeping Iran out of events in the Middle East isn't a realistic option,
bringing Tehran in from the cold will have huge repercussions for the region's
order and for the US and its allies. The question is no longer what economic
incentives are required to change Tehran's behavior. Instead, it's what role to
give it in stabilizing Iraq and in the region as a whole. - Trita Parsi
(Apr 21, '08)
Afghanistan moves to center stage
The United States' monopoly of the Afghan war is coming under serious public
challenge. Iran and Turkey have been vocal in their criticism of the way things
are going - or not going. At the same time, erstwhile bitter enemies of the
Taliban from the former Northern Alliance are now involved in direct talks with
"important people" from the Taliban. Simultaneously, the geopolitics of energy
are inextricably drawing China, Russia and Iran towards Afghanistan. - M K
Bhadrakumar (Apr 18, '08)
Petraeus hid Maliki's resistance to
US troops
US General David Petraeus' portrayal of last month's offensive in Basra by
Iraqi forces as inept masked a quite different picture in which Iraqi Prime
Minister Nuri al-Maliki launched the attack to forestall a much bigger US-led
operation against the Mahdi Army. Maliki did not want the US push to succeed. - Gareth
Porter (Apr 18, '08)
Al-Qaeda adds muscle to the
Taliban's fight
Al-Qaeda might have lost its numerical strength in Afghanistan, but it has been
able to extend its influence by drawing in battle-savvy Pakistani jihadis.
These fighters, working with Arab commanders and a key Pakistani Taliban
leader, will spearhead the Taliban-led spring offensive in Afghanistan. - Syed
Saleem Shahzad (Apr 18, '08)
China confronts its Uyghur threat
With international media fixated on riots in Tibet and the Olympic torch relay,
Beijing is braced for another potential menace: ethnic Uyghur militants from
the far western province of Xinjiang. Four recent incidents highlight a small
but determined group of well-funded and well-schooled separatists seeping into
China from training camps in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
(Apr 17, '08)
Introducing the other Guantanamo
The huge US air and naval base on Diego Garcia, in the Indian Ocean between
Africa and Indonesia, has been a major launch pad for the wars in Iraq and
Afghanistan. The US has improved it to the point of its use in a possible
attack on Iran, and it's suspected of being a part of the US's secret
"rendition" program for terrorist suspects. And all the while, the original
inhabitants - unceremoniously kicked off the island - still fight for the right
to return. (Apr 16, '08)
US juggles double-edged Iran
sanctions
Ahead of a meeting this week in China of all of the major powers dealing with
Iran's nuclear program, the United States continues its push for unilateral
sanctions against Tehran. Yet a bill making its way through the senate may
potentially further undermine the international support Washington seeks to
confront Iran and "change its behavior". (Apr 15,
'08)
Britain caught out in Afghan ploy
Britain's unilateral and secretive implementation of its 19th century-era
policy in Afghanistan has resulted ethnic wrangling, dealmaking and
disbursement of cash to tribal chiefs in return for short-lived loyalties.
President Hamid Karzai's angered response calls on London for a more pragmatic
approach in tune with the vastly changed Afghan dynamics. - Sharif Ghalib
(Apr 15, '08)
 SPENGLER
Ehud Olmert on the
Damascus road
Guerilla movements require arms, money and intelligence from sympathetic
states. Hamas and Hezbollah would represent no threat to Israel without the
backing of Syria and Iran. Military and political logic requires Israel to
attack their sponsors, rather than their militants embedded among civilians.
Iran is hard to reach, but Syria is a sitting duck. (Apr
14, '08)
DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
Oops, our bad
United States air power has, in the past six-and-a-half years, been an
effective force in the "war for terror", not against it. From the point of view
of one's actual enemies, they can't be bombed and strafed often enough, because
when they are, it is more or less guaranteed to create their newest recruits. - Tom
Engelhardt (Apr 14, '08)
US edges closer to engaging Iran
Iran has condemned attacks on the Green Zone in Baghdad, distancing itself from
provocative acts against the United States, while also downplaying Israel's
massive military exercises. This comes as Tehran acknowledges the receipt of an
official Washington suggestion for a next round of talks on Iraq. With the US
position eroding fast in Iraq, there is a strong sense the George W Bush
administration is taking the plunge for unconditional talks with Iran. - M K
Bhadrakumar (Apr 11, '08)
Tehran keeps its options open
Iran's reluctance to jump into another round of dialogue with the United States
over Iraq stems from its belief that no tangible results can be gained as long
as Washington constantly demonizes Iran and fails to appreciate its true role
in Iraq. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Apr 11, '08)
The Taliban talk the talk
Another spring, another promised Taliban offensive in Afghanistan. This time it
will be different, claim the Taliban, bolstered by hard-nosed tacticians and
seasoned fighters who have honed their skills in Kashmir and the Pakistani
tribal areas. Coalition forces in Afghanistan, while concerned over disruptions
to their supply lines, are unmoved: bring them on, they say. - Syed Saleem
Shahzad (Apr 10, '08)
Carryings on up the Khyber
The Taliban have identified the town of Torkham, at the Afghanistan end of the
fabled Khyber Pass, as a crucial weak point in the supply lines that maintain
the international military presence in Afghanistan. Significantly, the first in
a planned series of six joint intelligence centers along the border has been
opened at Torkham, in what the US describes as "a giant step forward". If only
Pakistan would play along. (Apr 10, '08)
War and peace, Israeli style
Israel's massive military exercises on the Syrian border have significantly
raised tension between the two countries, even as their leaders downplay the
development. At first glance, it is in nobody's interest to see yet another
war. Yet in their relentless pursuit of Hezbollah, the Israelis have good
reason to wage a limited battle on the group's natural ally, Syria - and then
seek peace on their own terms. - Sami Moubayed
(Apr 9, '08)
THE ROVING EYE
Evil Iran, the new al-Qaeda
The recent opinion piece by senators Joe Lieberman and Lindsey Graham was
soothing for George W Bush administration supporters in its assurances that the
"surge" in Iraq is successful as well as noble. It also served as a convenient
demonizing of Iran. As for the majority of the American public, which has had
enough of an endless war, it's nothing but an insult to their collective
intelligence. - Pepe Escobar (Apr
9, '08)
Jihad loses its pull in Kashmir
Bilal Ahmad Mir's decision to join a terror cell in northern Kashmir took him
only as far as the waiting arms of Indian intelligence. Stories like this one
of the would-be Pakistani jihadi are increasingly common, underscored by a
sharp decrease in the levels of violence in Kashmir. The Pakistani military,
though, is re-establishing its support for the jihadis.
(Apr 9, '08)
Iraqi rogues and a false proxy war
The strong resistance put up against United States and Iraqi forces in Basra
was by rogue militiamen who have split from Muqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army and
come under Iranian control. That, anyway, is the line General David Petraeus is
expected to follow in his congressional testimony. Yet there is no evidence
such Iranian-backed special groups exist, and Tehran's real strategy in Iraq
bears no resemblance to the one portrayed in the US proxy war narrative. - Gareth
Porter (Apr 8, '08)
 CAMPAIGN
OUTSIDER
Questioning to win in Iraq
The US presidential candidates hope to get useful answers when the top US
military commander and diplomat testify on Capitol Hill. But the key to the
election may be asking the right question. - Muhammad Cohen
(Apr 8, '08)
Embattled Karzai beams after
Bucharest
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization meeting last week may have given
Afghan President Hamid Karzai the crucial support he needs to reconcile
strained relations with the West and domestic turmoil with his intention to
seek re-election in 2009. This support will also prove wrong politicians in
Afghanistan who prematurely believe the Western allies have already abandoned
Karzai. - Haroun Mir (Apr 8, '08)
The Taliban's shadow hangs over
NATO
Following the North Atlantic Treaty Organization summit and the meeting between
Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President George W Bush, the Russians
say they were "defeated": the US's missile defense shield in Europe and NATO's
expansion will go ahead. This is a smokescreen. Moscow, by agreeing to the
transit of food and non-military cargo and "some types of non-lethal military
equipment" across Russia to Afghanistan, now has a role in NATO's
operations in Afghanistan. - M K Bhadrakumar
(Apr 7, '08)
The general and the trap
The George W Bush administration's missteps in Iraq will not be apparent in the
shadowboxing among Washington's "best and brightest" when General David
Petraeus, the "surge" commander in Iraq, and US ambassador Ryan Crocker
testify before congressional committees on Tuesday. And any debate focused on
military success or failure is a trap, with Petraeus' testimony as the bait for
unwary Democratic presidential hopefuls. - Ira Chernus
(Apr 7, '08)
Yes, it's that 'q' word again
The United States risks getting bogged down in Iraq for a long time to come,
the influential experts who advised the bipartisan Iraq Study Group conclude in
a new report. They suggest two possible alternatives to the current policy of
an "unconditional" US commitment to Iraq, and their views will almost certainly
give dissenters ammunition in Tuesday's critical congressional testimony. - Jim
Lobe (Apr 7, '08) |
Muqtada out of step in Shi'ite
dance
The attempted crackdown by the Nuri al-Maliki government on Muqtada al-Sadr's
Mahdi Army vividly illustrates how politics in Iraq have slipped into a Shi'ite
vs Shi'ite battle. The Muslim sect can no longer be viewed as one big
family - thanks to the preferences of Iran, and the ambitious Muqtada. - Sami
Moubayed (Apr 4, '08
Taliban welcome back an old friend
 The
release of a video featuring legendary Afghan mujahideen leader Jalaluddin
Haqqani, whom many believed dead since he disappeared from the public eye
several years ago, is a major boost for the Taliban. Not only does Haqqani
pledge his considerable support for the Taliban, his return to the scene will
galvanize Pashtun tribal leaders and serve as a unifying force for the
Taliban-led resistance. - Syed Saleem Shahzad
(Apr 3, '08)
What schools didn't teach about
empire
In Iraq, in Afghanistan, and at home, the position of the globe's "sole
superpower" is visibly fraying. The United States that was once proclaimed an
"empire lite" has proven increasingly light-headed, and it can't seem to make a
move in its own interest that isn't a disaster. The justifications for empire,
embedded in US culture - that war is necessary for security, that expansion is
fundamental to civilization - have begun to lose their hold. - Howard Zinn
(Apr 3, '08)
India 'decapitates' jihadi group
Police are calling the arrest of 13 leaders of the Students Islamic Movement of
India a major breakthrough against the outfit believed to have been involved in
most of the major terror attacks in India since 2001. The "prize catch" is
ideologue Safdar Nagori, and interrogations have already yielded another secret
terror camp. Still, the group has political connections and a widespread
network that will be difficult to dismantle. - Sudha Ramachandran
(Apr 3, '08)
Iran torpedoes US plans for Iraqi
oil
With the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps showing how much control it has
over the killing fields of Iraq, by stopping the fighting in the southern city
of Basra, Iran has made both the Iraqi and United States governments look very
foolish. Far beyond that, Iran has frustrated the joint US-British objective of
gaining control of Basra, without which their strategy for establishing control
over the fabulous oil wealth of southern Iraq will not work. - M K
Bhadrakumar (Apr 2, '08)
THE ROVING EYE
The other
Iraqi civil war
Even by George W Bush logic, "the terrorists" and Iran won the battle
of Basra. In the north of Iraq, though, the pieces are falling into place for
an alliance between the United States, Israel and a "greater Kurdistan". If
only the pesky Iraqi nationalist Sunnis and Shi'ites don't get in the way. -
Pepe Escobar (Apr 2, '08)
The Pentagon's battle bugs
The Pentagon's blue-skies outfit, the Defense Advanced Research Projects
Agency, celebrates its 50th birthday this year with a program to create cyborg
insects - actual moths, June bugs and other creatures that could be developed
and programmed to conduct surveillance (or worse). As part of the US's
war-fighting future, researchers are already growing insects with electronics
inside them - on-board audio, video and chemical sensors. - Nick Turse
(Apr 2, '08)
Taliban will talk, but no
'sugar-coating'
The Pakistani Taliban have reacted promptly to the government's offer of peace
talks, agreeing in principle. First, though, they want some key captives
released, including a firebrand cleric. In return, the Taliban will release
some 250 security personnel they are holding. It's a tempting offer, but one
which Washington will oppose with all its strength, including financial
muscle. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Apr 1, '08)
Muqtada's fight puts US to flight
In the United States' estimation, Muqtada al-Sadr and his Mahdi Army were ripe
for the plucking after months of being harassed by "cordon and search"
operations across Iraq. The heavy offensive in Basra was to further - if not
fatally - weaken the Shi'ite militia. That Muqtada's men were more than ready
for a fight has the Bush administration scrambling to distance itself from this
gross miscalculation. - Gareth Porter (Apr 1,
'08)
Iran sees hope in war of words
High-level and at times contradictory comments by United States officials on
Iran's nuclear program heat the pot of allegations against the country without
bringing it to boiling point. From Tehran's perspective, in this war of
attrition being fought in the arena of world public opinion, the chips are
piling up against the US and its allies. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi
(Apr 1, '08)
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ATol Specials
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Syed Saleem Shahzad reports on
the Afghan war from the Taliban side
(Dec '06)
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How
Hezbollah defeated Israel
By
Mark Perry and
Alastair Crooke
(Oct '06)
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Mark Perry and
Alastair Crooke
talk to the 'terrorists'
(Mar, '06)
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The evidence for and against Iran's alleged
nuclear weapons program
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Nir Rosen goes inside the Iraqi
resistance
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Nir Rosen rides with the 3rd
armored cavalry in western Iraq
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Islamism, fascism and
terrorism
by Marc Erikson
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For earlier articles go to:
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