By July-August 2001, it was clear that something dramatic was about to happen. Pepe Escobar, our "Roving Eye", was
traveling in Afghanistan and the tribal areas of Pakistan. The rumor was that US forces were about to use Pakistan to launch a raid into Afghanistan. Escobar's article, published by Asia Times Online on August 30, 2001, was headlined  Get Osama! Now! Or else ... Our Karachi correspondent, Syed Saleem Shazad, was meanwhile filing articles like Osama bin Laden: The thorn in Pakistan's flesh (August 22, 2001) ...

COMMENTARY
A 'third force' awaits US in Iraq
Despite the best efforts of Saddam Hussein and his religious police, a fiercely anti-Western Muslim group with long regional tentacles has gained a foothold in Iraq, and can be expected to be a further complicating factor for any post-Saddam administration. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Feb 28, '03)

The other air war
Al-Jazeera could face a stiff fight to retain its corner of the television viewership market as a number of upstart stations gear up to cover likely war in Iraq. But in truth, there is only one competitor that al-Jazeera need fear. - Ian Urbina (Feb 28, '03)

Neighbors rally to the defense of Kuwait
Amid fears that Saddam Hussein might launch a preemptive attack on Kuwait, five of the country's regional neighbors are pouring in troops to help shore up its defenses. Beyond the military implications, the move could also stand the Arab states in good stead in the post-Saddam scenario. (Feb 28, '03)

    Exiles squabble over key post-Saddam role

ANALYSIS
China's self-defeating North Korea gamble
While China is in no immediate danger from North Korea's missiles, it stands to lose plenty if it does not act soon to help sort out the mess. Growing business ties with South Korea are at stake, and China is also inviting a militarily more assertive and capable Japan neither it nor the rest of Asia will be happy with. - Marc Erikson (Feb 28, '03)

Bin Laden gives Iraq an unlikely unity
The complex strands of religious belief that have traditionally placed the Salafi branch of Islam (as practiced by Osama bin Laden) and the Sufi school of thought (as popular in Iraq) at odds with each other have undergone a sea change. New allegiances are being forged, and divisions that invading US soldiers would have expected to exploit in northern Iraq are being healed. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Feb 27, '03)

THE ROVING EYE
Arabs wash their hands of Saddam
It is as if the Arabs are watching a disaster movie, passive spectators. The plot is all about them, but they don't seem to realize it. But the silence of the Arab street masks tremendous anger, about the plight of the Palestinians and the looming war on Iraq. As Arab leaders prepare for a summit this weekend, the perilous abyss between them and their people yawns ever wider. - Pepe Escobar (Feb 27, '03)

The power of political mullahs
Since the Iranian Revolution in 1979, the country's clergy has dominated the political scene, and only now are there voices - albeit muted ones - calling for clerics to go back to their mosques, writes Ehsan Ahrari. In Pakistan, though, the situation is almost the reverse, with the mullahs increasingly, and worryingly from the point of view of the West, manipulating their followers for political purposes, writes Aijazz Ahmed. (Feb 27, '03)

   Hard choices for Iran's ayatollahs 
   In Pakistan, sermons and signals


The re-education of Colin Powell
Secretary of State Colin Powell's apparent metamorphosis from appeaser into one of the foremost proponents of a US invasion of Iraq can be viewed less as a real conversion than as a calculated move to ensure that the voice of moderation is heard within the Bush administration in the post-Saddam Hussein era. - Ehsan Ahrari (Feb 26, '03)

The anatomy of a sectarian killing
The recent deadly attack in Karachi on a group of Kashmiri Shi'ites by Sunni militants traces its roots to the ruthless measures Pakistan has adopted to control its Northern Areas, while the killings can also be seen as an off-spin of events currently taking place in southern Iraq. - B Raman (Feb 26, '03)

Missiles, scientists and the question of war
The harried UN weapons inspectors on the ground in Iraq have whittled down their demands to Iraqi officials to two: destroy the Al Samoud 2 missiles that have been found, and allow Iraqi scientists to be interviewed without government minders in tow. The future of Saddam Hussein could depend on how these requests are handled. (Feb 26, '03)

Trans-Atlantic versus trans-Pacific alliances
While Germany and France are emerging as potential leaders of a power bloc strong enough to challenge the United States, in the Asia-Pacific, Japan and Australia will ensure that the region remains firmly under the strategic umbrella of the US. - Purnendra Jain and John Bruni (Feb 26, '03)

THE ROVING EYE
At the gates of heaven - or hell
Iraq is the bridge between Arabs, Persians and Turks, between the Mediterranean and Central Asia from an historic, religious, ethnic and geographic perspective. Which is why it's such a big prize. But winning it will unleash unimagined forces almost impossible to control. - Pepe Escobar (Feb 25, '03)

Japan: Hawks come out of the woodwork
As more bellicose rhetoric comes out of Tokyo and its hawkish defense establishment, Axel Berkofsky ponders how a self-declared pacifist country can mull such moves as nuclear weapons programs and "preemptive" strikes. (Feb 25, '03)

Pyongyang shoots down diplomatic hopes
The North Korean missile that plunged into the Sea of Japan on Monday, just hours before the inauguration of a new president in Seoul, dealt a devastating blow to the diplomatic approach to the North Korea crisis. The biggest casualty was China. - Francesco Sisci (Feb 25, '03)

South Korea joins 'axis of independence'
Roh Moo-hyun, the incoming South Korean president, is part of a trend that raises the hackles of the administration of US President George W Bush. The United States now has another uncowed "ally". With friends like these, who needs an axis of evil? (Feb 25, '03)

Malice in Moroland
Philippine President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo and US President George W Bush share many traits. So why can't they get their stories straight about the latest deployment of US forces to fight Abu Sayyaf in the southern Philippines? - Gary LaMoshi (Feb 24, '03)

   US troops take 'Monroe Doctrine' global

Power and the new world order
Thomas Friedman, the Pulitzer-winning voice of US neo-liberalism, has rapped China for not getting on board with US foreign policy. But why should it? Indeed, why should any nation-state be a cheerleader for a World of Order that exists primarily for the economic benefit of a single entity - the United States of America? - Henry C K Liu (Feb 24, '03)

Dollar diplomacy and UN votes
US Secretary of State Colin Powell says that the US has no plans to "strong arm" members of the Security Council into supporting Washington over Iraq. What he has not mentioned are the billions of dollars dependent on just such support. (Feb 24, '03)

The war that could break the West
The trans-Atlantic alliance between Washington and Western Europe has been the cornerstone of security in the West for more than half a century. Now, as differences between the US-British camp and its Franco-German counterpart illustrate, things are changing - perhaps irreparably. - Francesco Sisci (Feb 21, '03)

Saddam's pillars of power 
Saddam Hussein has carefully crafted a complex regime in which power is drawn from the three pillars of family, peasant clansmen, and clergy. It has taken a long time to build. And it might also take a long time to unravel. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Feb 21, '03)

COMMENT
Bush should heed lessons of Vietnam
As John Berthelsen witnessed as a war correspondent in Vietnam in the 1960s, changing a country for the better is difficult from within and nearly impossible from without. As it continues its war rhetoric regarding Iraq, it would behoove the Bush administration to examine the failures of US involvement in Vietnam. (Feb 21, '03)

THE ROVING EYE
What the US is really up against
The intricate web of tribal connections that Saddam Hussein has woven through the fabric of Iraq's ruling elite and the army will ensure that the only way to bring down the regime will be through full-scale invasion and occupation. And at this point it will get messy, very messy, in a bloody mix of civil war and liberation struggle. - Pepe Escobar (Feb 20, '03)

   Post-war poser divides Bush administration

COMMENTARY
Saddam's Samson option
The Arab quest to arrange a suitable exile for Saddam Hussein may be the best scenario from a global consideration - and certainly from the viewpoint of the Iraqi nation. Unfortunately, that may not be the result the aging dictator desires - for himself, or for his people. - Ehsan Ahrari (Feb 20, '03)

DANCES WITH BEARS
You who applaud today, applaud France
Frenchman Astolphe de Custine's 1843 book on the psychology of Russians was so accurate that it was banned in Russia until 1996. Custine had hoped to find evidence for an alliance with France. He decided the time wasn't ripe. Now, 160 years later, it appears that Paris and Moscow are on the same wavelength. - John Helmer (Feb 20, '03)

The Turkish military and northern Iraq
Turkey is still to give its approval for US troops to use its territory as a staging post for a war on Iraq, apparently with "compensation" details still to be finalized. But more significant wrangling - over deployment of their forces in Iraq and how the spoils will be divided - is exercising minds in Ankara and Washington. - Robert M Cutler (Feb 19, '03)

The constancy of chaos
Ancient Kurdistan was no stranger to war - standing at a crossroads of Asia, its mountain passes and valleys witnessed some of humankind's earliest recorded battles. And the lesson to emerge from that whole long bloody history is that there are no certainties in war. - K Gajendra Singh (Feb 19, '03)

US policy and presidential aspirations
The manner in which the Bush administration has gone about fighting the war on terror has left a lot of people feeling there's something missing - a credibility gap between what is said at home and practiced abroad, between the talk of liberty and the support of tyranny. It is a gap that might well afford a bold and far-sighted American politician room enough to run in - and even run for president, perhaps. - Ken Sanes (Feb 19, '03)

A call to charms
Among the ironies involved in the US's recent launch of a US$30 million ad campaign called "Shared Values" to explain to an overseas audience the American belief in democracy, tolerance and freedom of speech is the fact that some of America's closest friends in the Middle East apparently don't share those values. (Feb 19, '03)

ANALYSIS
Gimme that old-time imperialism
The 19th-century imperial spirit lives on in today's White House, where leading advisers increasingly evoke the charge-up-San-Juan-Hill style of Bush's favorite president, Theodore Roosevelt. Now, if they only could evoke his policies as well. - Jim Lobe (Feb 19, '03)

Saddam's northern trap
Saddam Hussein's years-long repression of Kurdish dissidence in northern Iraq has led many outside the country to imagine that this might be his greatest zone of weakness in the event of war. But there are indications that Saddam has been carefully planting seeds of Kurdish resistance that might hinder any outside invasion. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Feb 18, '03)

Power by other means
Militarily, it is true, no other nation on earth can challenge US might. Yet that hasn't kept challenges from coming. Traditional European powers Germany and France, as well as Russia and China, see it as in their national interest to steer the world back to a multi-polar reality, and toward that end they are using the power levers available to them. - Ehsan Ahrari (Feb 18, '03)

West vs East: Australia reorients
As Australia deploys troops to the Middle East, making it the only Asia-Pacific nation to commit ground forces to the looming war against Iraq, and as it focuses more on its relationship with the United States, Alan Boyd examines Canberra's changing foreign policy priorities. (Feb 18, '03)

Pakistan's wonderlands with little wonder
The two-fold role of the mosque in traditional Muslim society as a sacred place of worship and as a center of social activities has steadily been undermined by the emergence of politics and sectarianism in these institutions, and nowhere more so than in Pakistan. (Feb 18, '03)

PLOTS AND COUNTER-PLOTS  (Feb 14, '03) 'Taliban' await in northern Iraq ... .. Evidence for a connection between al-Qaeda and Saddam Hussein rests partly with the Taliban-style Kurdish Islamist group in northern Iraq, Ansar al-Islam. But Ansar's significance in the region derives mainly from the support it receives from Iran (not Saddam), as well as its potential for serving as the trigger for bloody infighting in the aftermath of war. - Ian Urbina ... and a Trojan Horse in the south ... The Bikar oil terminal, a floating jetty in the Arabian Gulf and the furthest reach of Saddam's dominion in southern Iraq, is part of the city of Basra, the center of Shi'ite culture in the country and a likely focal point for war planners sitting in both Baghdad and the US warships cruising just 65 miles offshore. - Syed Saleem Shahzad ... as terrorists wait off-stage in the wings The danger of a first strike by Saddam before the US launches its war is considered low. On the other hand, Western intelligence agencies rate the chances of terrorist organizations such as al-Qaeda, Hezbollah, Hamas or the Al Aqsa Martyrs' Brigade staging widespread preemptive strikes as high. - B Raman

THE ROVING EYE
You have the right to remain irrelevant
That tougher inspections in Iraq are the will of the world is demonstrated by public opinion polls and protest marches on every continent. Thus the Security Council is only reflecting reality as it remains split and leaning strongly against a UN resolution that would lead to war. But the world also knows that the Bush administration doesn't see it this way: It will attack Iraq, consequences be damned. - Pepe Escobar (Feb 14, '03)

Military buildup: US, Tokyo ignore public
As Washington continues its tough line against Pyongyang, the US Pacific Command has requested more troops and warplanes for its bases in South Korea and Japan. While public opinion in both countries is for less, not more, US military presence, Tokyo is playing coy as usual. Meanwhile, the North Koreans themselves are gearing up for a birthday party. - Axel Berkofsky (Feb 14, '03)

Now, bin Laden takes aim at Pakistan
Though some news stations chose not to mention it, the most recent purported Osama bin Laden tape specifically calls for the "liberation of Pakistan", which does not bode well for the government of President General Pervez Musharraf. - B Raman (Feb 13, '03)

UN appeasers let rogues call the shots
While Pyongyang continues to thumb its nose at the world, inaction by the UN Security Council clearly demonstrates the UN's uselessness at keeping the peace either in North Korea or Iraq. Meanwhile, pundits and the "do nothing" claque assault the only force willing to stand up for principles of international security and order: the United States. - Stephen Blank (Feb 13, '03)

THE ROVING EYE
When stereotypes collide
In the Middle East today, two popular stereotypes - the Arab image of the ruthless American cowboy, guns blazing regardless of right and wrong, and the American image of the frenzied Arab terrorist, ready to blow up anything, including himself, at the drop of a teacup - are colliding head-on in the desert sands. - Pepe Escobar (Feb 12, '03)

COMMENTARY
Single-minded simple-mindedness
By designating the undemocratic Islamic world as the locus and wellspring of all anti-Americanism abroad, many - too many - commentators are allowing their Western penchant for sharpness of line and simplicity of thought to erase, from their vision of the Middle East, any possible overlap or shade of gray. - Ehsan Ahrari (Feb 11, '03)

THE ROVING EYE
All quiet on the Arab street
As Colin Powell laid out his prosecutor's case against Saddam Hussein, the Arab street reacted with a deep, unmistakable and profound ... yawn. To judge by the scene in a typical Cairo awah (coffeehouse), the average Arab is tired of Saddam, tired of Bush, tired of despotism and tired of poverty - and just plain tired of living without a future. Pepe Escobar reports from Cairo. (Feb 6, '03)

Iraq waits blissfully for the bombs to drop
Despite the recent influx of foreign journalists and anti-war protesters, Baghdad remains a city enveloped in an eerie sense of calm and normalcy as it goes about its business of awaiting destruction, Syed Saleem Shahzad reports from Iraq. (Feb 6, '03)

A supreme commander's choices
George W Bush is said to have read Eliot A Cohen's book Supreme Command, an analysis of the leadership styles of four historic wartime leaders. It is hoped that Bush will take to heart Cohen's arguments: that a successful wartime leader must demand the unvarnished truth from military subordinates, and that he must refuse to allow such subordinates to usurp decision-making powers that are essentially political. - Ehsan Ahrari (Feb 6, '03)

COMMENTARY
Oil may be the answer, but not the question
"Why Iraq and not North Korea?" many ask. "Is it just about the oil?" A legitimate question - in a world full of menace, the Bush administration's fixation with Iraq does appear as a mere grab for profit. But appearances can be deceiving, and the admission that, yes, it's all about the oil, may be merely the beginning of a sophisticated analysis of US strategy. - Argyle Ellis (Feb 5, '03)

A POLEMIC
Germany's leading role in arming Iraq
Baghdad's report to the UN on its weapons of mass destruction programs shows that German companies made up the bulk of suppliers for those programs. Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder has long been aware of the facts, but even more galling is that he continues to play holier than thou in his opposition to war against Iraq. - Marc Erikson (Feb 4, '03)

Time running out for Japan
Despite much politicking on the part of the Japanese government to avoid giving a clear-cut position on whether the nation will play a role in a possible US war against Iraq, many wonder if the stage hasn't already been set for Japan to support the military strike. - Axel Berkofsky (Feb 4, '03)

A smoking gun and Powell's blind eye
When Colin Powell speaks to the UN Security Council on Wednesday, expect him to bend over backward in making a case that the Saddam regime has maintained ties with al-Qaeda. Do not, however, expect him to mention the links fostered between Osama bin Laden and Iraq by the US's ally in the war on terror, Pakistan. - B Raman (Feb 3, '03)

January 2003