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 War
and Terror
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July 2008
Al-Qaeda hails 'revival' in
Afghanistan
Oozing confidence, al-Qaeda's operations
commander in Afghanistan, Mustafa Abu-al-Yazid, talks of the progress al-Qaeda
is making in consolidating its position in Afghanistan and in attracting
foreign jihadis to join the Taliban-led struggle against "infidel" invaders.
Abu-Yazid's assessment is backed by Pakistan's eroding commitment to battle
Afghan and Pakistani insurgents, to the extent that Islamabad is expected to
redeploy troops to the Pakistan-India border. - Michael
Scheuer (Jul 31, '08)
The bad side to the 'good
war'
From the outset in 2001, the United States-led invasion of Afghanistan has been
the "good war", fought against the Taliban and their al-Qaeda guests. This
belief prevailed, even as the war in Iraq turned "bad". Now, the weight of
occupation and the rising number of civilian deaths is shifting the resistance
toward a war of national liberation, and no foreign power has ever won that
battle in Afghanistan. - Conn Hallinan
(Jul 31, '08)
The 'down side' to an attack on
Iran
A military strike against Iran would have negative consequences and do little
to stop Iran's nuclear program, a major defense think-tank's study for the
United States Air Force concludes. But even as the outcome of an attack is
questioned, top US officials are assuring Israel that the military option is
still "on the table". - Jim Lobe (Jul
31,
US's 'surge' in Iraq has its limits
General David Petraeus, commander
of United States forces in Iraq, has once again trumpeted the success of the
troop "surge" in Iraq, saying violence is declining to almost "normal" levels.
Factors other than the "surge", such as Iran's change of tactics, have helped
stabilize Iraq. And blind belief in it sets a bad example for when the US
decides to turn its full attention to the Taliban and al-Qaeda in Afghanistan.
- Brian M Downing
(Jul 30, '08)
Iran seeks entry to the
lion's den
The United Nations Security Council has imposed three rounds of sanctions on
Iran over its nuclear program, which President Mahmud Ahmadinejad has dismissed
as "worthless papers". Now Tehran has launched a campaign for inclusion as a
non-permanent member of the council, with Ahmadinejad reaching out first to the
Non-Aligned Movement. Iran might not get the seat it wants, but in the process
it could unblock the nuclear stalemate. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi
(Jul 30, '08)
DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
Mercenaries at
work
The ongoing process in the United States of the transfer of military and
intelligence functions (and much of a US$66 billion budget) to private, often
anonymous operatives, has made it easier for enemies to penetrate American
intelligence. This has greased the slippery slope to the loss of
professionalism within the community of intelligence analysts, in turn
heightening the risks of war by accident, or by presidential whim. - Chalmers
Johnson (Jul 29, '08)
Good
cop, bad cop: Pakistan reels
Even as the United States rebukes Pakistan over its performance in the "war on
terror", it hands Islamabad four F-16 fighter jets as a reward for siding with
Washington. Then the US launches a missile attack into Pakistani territory,
killing an al-Qaeda commander. These contradictions test Islamabad's will, to
the advantage of the Taliban and al-Qaeda. - Syed Saleem Shahzad
(Jul 29, '08)
'Pushover' Maliki stands his ground
Many in the George W Bush administration dismiss Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri
al-Maliki's demand for a United States timeline for withdrawal of its troops as
political posturing, assuming that he will abandon it under pressure, just as
he did in 2006. But Maliki now has much greater purchase to defy Bush than he
did two years ago. - Gareth Porter (Jul 29,
'08)
Obama
and the Taliban
United States presidential hopeful Barack Obama's has spoken of the close
association between al-Qaeda and the Taliban. His linkage of the two groups
mirrors the George W Bush administration's policy and over-simplifies a far
more complex reality, against which force and violence will likely fail. - Mark
LeVine (Jul 29, '08)
India ripe for more attacks
Deadly bomb blasts in Bangalore and Ahmedabad, two cities that symbolize
India's growing economic might, appear also to have been aimed at stirring
communal riots. And all indications are that more attacks will follow if these
ones don't succeed in that goal. - Sudha Ramachandran
(Jul 28, '08)
Pakistan feels
the heat in Washington
Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani can expect a heated reception
during his meeting with US President George W Bush in Washington, given the
many top US policymakers who blame Islamabad for the deteriorating situation in
Afghanistan. The Pakistan government's bungled attempt to control its rogue
intelligence agency won't ease the atmosphere. - Syed Saleem Shahzad
(Jul 28, '08)
Snub for Iran eases nuclear crisis
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization, dominated by China and Russia, has ended
Iran's hopes of joining the regional grouping. This comes at a critical turning
point when issues of peace and war hang by a thread. Yet the setback may be a
blessing in disguise for Tehran, which, through its new interlocutor for
communicating with Washington - Turkey - can now take fresh steps to resolve
the crisis over its nuclear program. - M K Bhadrakumar
(Jul 28, '08)
You need Uncle Sam, Iraq told
Fighting back against Baghdad's demands for a timetable for the withdrawal of
United States troops from Iraq, the George W Bush administration and the US
military leadership are making it plain that the objectives of Iraq must
include continued dependence on US troops for an indefinite period. The riposte
could be too late: the era of Iraqi dependence on the US is already ending. - Gareth
Porter (Jul 25, '08)
Pakistan draws a bead on Baitullah
After eliminating all opposition and consolidating his power in the South
Waziristan tribal area, hardline Pakistani Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud is
extending his reach into other tribal areas. And to the major consternation of
leaders in Pakistan and coalition forces in Afghanistan, jihadis from around
the world are flocking to his cause. He's now a marked man. - Syed Saleem
Shahzad (Jul 25, '08)
 CHAN
AKYA
A Turkish theater for
World War III
Turkey has been sold to the Saudis at a bargain price for Riyadh's assistance
to the George W Bush administration in pushing down the price of oil ahead of
the United States presidential elections this year. The path chosen is the same
as that used to turn Pakistan into a breeding ground for terrorists, with an
accelerated timetable in keeping with a preset script. Around the corner, a
civilizational war beckons. (Jul 24, '08)
THE ROVING EYE
Al-Qaeda's got a brand new bag
United States Democratic presidential candidate Senator Barack Obama has got it
right - Afghanistan, and not Iraq, is "the central front in the war on terror".
Al-Qaeda couldn't agree more. That is exactly where they want the war to be
fought, and then extended into Pakistan. - Pepe Escobar
(Jul 23, '08)
Unsolicited advice for Bush on Iran
Two leading lights of Washington's so-called "realist" foreign-policy
establishment have called on the George W Bush administration to drop demands
that Tehran freeze uranium enrichment as a precondition for further talks. The
joint statement seems timed to show strong bipartisan support for enhanced US
engagement. - Jim Lobe (Jul 23, '08)
Plot to divide the Taliban foiled
A plan by the Pakistan government, with connivance from Saudi Arabia, to split
the Taliban operating in Pakistan's tribal areas has failed spectacularly, with
the "renegade" Taliban leader and his network wiped out by al-Qaeda-backed
militants. The incident has consolidated the hold of Taliban leader Mullah
Omar, while al-Qaeda is benefiting through a sharp increase in jihadis from
around the world heading for the tribal regions. - Syed Saleem Shahzad
(Jul 22, '08)
McCain knee-capped by Maliki
Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's endorsement of Senator Barack Obama's timetable
for American combat forces to leave Iraq has been described as a "body blow" to
the campaign of rival US presidential candidate Senator John McCain. Obama can
now claim to have staked out a position acceptable to the Iraqi government, and
he is fast shedding his "naive" tag. - Jim Lobe (Jul
22, '08)
Flexibility points to Iran
breakthrough
The chances are good that the Geneva meeting this weekend will bring about an
interim result in the crisis over Iran's nuclear program as both Tehran and
Washington have compelling reasons for compromising. Iran, in particular, faces
an energy crisis. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Jul
18, '08)
A reality check on Iran
Iran is not ripe for regime change as any attack on the country would rally
people around the government, not alienate them, an influential new report in
the United States finds. These conclusions run counter to the neo-conservative
argument, but fit with the George W Bush administration's newfound engagement,
albeit limited, of Tehran. - David Isenberg (Jul
18, '08)
Hezbollah's deal leaves Israel
short
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah is trumpeting that he has "kept his promise"
in having five prisoners and the remains of 199 others returned to Lebanon by
Israel. This indeed enhances Hezbollah's prestige, while Israel, although
getting back the bodies of two soldiers abducted in 2006, has drawn widespread
criticism for appearing to come off worse in the exchange. And why did the
Israelis wait so long before agreeing to the deal? - Sami Moubayed
(Jul 17, '08)
Tehran open to US Interests
The government of President Mahmud Ahmadinejad has responded positively to a
proposal by Washington that it open a US Interests Section in Tehran. Hooshang
Amirahmadi, president of the American Iranian Council and currently in Iran,
also welcomes the initiative, pointing out that Ahmadinejad is always ready to
talk. (Jul 17, '08)
US lends Iran a listening ear
The decision by the George W Bush administration to send a high-level official
to join talks on Iran's nuclear program as a "listener" marks a significant
shift, but in line with Washington's engagement of North Korea. The move on
Iran brings the possibility of a "freeze-for-freeze" - a simultaneous
suspension of international sanctions and uranium enrichment - a step closer.
Hardliners in the United States, though, will not give up without a fight. - Jim
Lobe (Jul 17, '08)
Militants ready for a war without
borders
Coalition forces expect it. Al-Qaeda and the Pakistan Taliban expect it: the
war in Afghanistan will soon spill over into Pakistani territory. Washington is
banking on Islamabad helping out from its side, but the militants have other
ideas. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Jul 16, '08)
THE ROVING EYE
Obama's brave (new?) world
At first glance, Democratic Senator Barack Obama's "new overarching strategy"
for Iraq and Afghanistan is streets ahead of the approach proposed by his US
presidential rival, Republican Senator John McCain. But from the planned
withdrawal of troops from Iraq to dealing with the Taliban, Obama's vision,
when it comes to implementation, will likely founder on the harsh realities
that have so frustrated the George W Bush administration. - Pepe Escobar
(Jul 16, '08)
Afghan attack resonates in
Washington
The deaths of nine United States soldiers at the hands of the Taliban at a
remote outpost in eastern Afghanistan is a sharp reminder that the central
front in Washington's "war on terror" has moved from Iraq. This realization has
already had a major impact on the US presidential elections. - Jim Lobe
(Jul 15, '08)
Karzai nods to US, winks to Iran
Afghan President Hamid Karzai uses cautious language to give praise equally to
the United States and Iran for their roles in his embattled nation. Even with
US officials pointing to Iranian-made weapons bound for Taliban militants,
Karzai says "both countries have helped us in our reconstruction" and vows his
government does not want its "soil to be used" in any conflict between other
countries. (Jul 15, '08)
Iran-US: A study in misperceptions
The failure of United States-Iran rapprochement is invariably blamed on
Washington's insistence on a suspension of Iran's uranium-enrichment program
and on Tehran's intransigence on the same. The deeper reason is that neither
side even tries to understand the other, and that suitable people who could
help bridge the gap are not utilized. - Hossein Askari
(Jul 15, '08)
Syria basks in diplomatic
breakthrough
After waiting for its chance for years, in a matter of minutes at the weekend
Syria resumed diplomatic ties with Lebanon and France and made it abundantly
clear that Damascus is central to solving most problems in the Middle East.
France also emerges from these breakthrough developments with credit, having
stuck to a line independent of the United States. - Sami Moubayed
(Jul 14, '08)
DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
Five weddings and many funerals
The bombing of a wedding party in Afghanistan on July 6 brings to five the
number of such gatherings hit by United States air power since 2001, including
in Iraq, with cumulatively hundreds of dead and wounded. - Tom Engelhardt
(Jul 14, '08)
Bush outfoxed in the Iraqi sands
A combination of Iraqi Shi'ite political opposition and Iranian diplomacy,
embodied in Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's demand for a timetable for
complete United States military withdrawal from Iraq, signals the almost
certain defeat of the George W Bush administration's aim of establishing a
long-term military presence in Iraq. - Gareth Porter (Jul
11, '08)
Afghanistan's 'sons of the soil'
rise up
With the Taliban proving increasingly difficult to defeat militarily, and with
the Western coalition reluctant to negotiate with any Taliban or al-Qaeda
radicals, an uneasy stalemate has been reached in Afghanistan. Pakistan sees
this as an opportunity to regain its position as a key player in the affairs of
its neighbor by elevating moderate "sons of the soil" Taliban as the people to
negotiate with. This is already happening in Pakistan's tribal areas. - Syed
Saleem Shahzad (Jul 11, '08)
THE ROVING EYE
Iran's missiles are just for show
As a political statement to world leaders gathered in Japan, Iran's test-firing
on Wednesday of nine long-and-medium range missiles was impeccable. But even if
Iran had the physical means to deliver the nuclear warheads it does not
possess, these tests do not mean it has mastered the capability to do so.
Iran's real deterrence against an attack comes from the reorganization of its
military, giving it effectively 30 armies spread across the country. - Pepe
Escobar (Jul 10, '08)
DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
Why the US won't attack Iran
Despite all the warnings, alarms, rumors and panicky pieces coursing through
the international media, an attack on Iran is less likely than ever to happen.
For small, vulnerable Israel, an air assault on Iranian nuclear facilities,
alone or with the backing of the US, is literally inconceivable, given the
disastrous fallout that would follow. - Tom Engelhardt
(Jul 10, '08)
Iranian film hits raw Egyptian
nerve
Cairo is seething over a film from Iran depicting former Egyptian president
Anwar Sadat as a "traitor" for signing the 1978 peace accords with Israel. The
spat comes at the height of Iranian efforts to win allies in the Arab and
Muslim world, both to penetrate the array of pro-American states in the region,
and use them to lobby against a possible Israeli attack. - Sami Moubayed
(Jul 10, '08)
SPEAKING FREELY
A last throw of the dice ...?
A United States war against Iran is conceivable as a final apocalyptic
manifestation of Pax Americana, but this would only hasten the decline of the
US in terms of power, influence and moral authority. - Bob Rigg
(Jul 9, '08)
Nuclear 'scare' against Iran
exposed
The International Atomic Energy Agency's recent revival of the issue of Iran's
possession of a paper said to provide information on making the core of a
nuclear weapon significantly increased international pressure on Tehran. Yet
the United Nations' nuclear watchdog had earlier indicated that this matter had
been satisfactorily resolved, pointing to new political pressures on the
agency. - Gareth Porter (Jul 9, '08)
India caught in the Taliban myth
India's reaction to the deadly bombing of its embassy in Kabul is one of
outrage and the calls for retaliatory action are vigorous. On the complex
Afghan stage, though, this is not a simple morality play of good versus evil.
Something has gone very wrong with India's attitude to the Taliban and instead
of a knee-jerk "war on terror" response, a comprehensive examination of exactly
what India is doing in Afghanistan could better serve the country. - M K
Bhadrakumar (Jul 9, '08)
Now it's war against India in
Afghanistan
The Taliban and Pakistan have denied responsibility for the devastating suicide
attack on the Indian Embassy in the Afghan capital Kabul on Monday. Delhi
doesn't believe a word of it. The Taliban have frequently targeted projects
sponsored and constructed by India in Afghanistan, fearing India's growing
influence at the expense of Pakistan. Delhi is being urged to send troops into
Afghanistan. This might add to India's stature, but it would be a disaster. -
Sudha Ramachandran (Jul 8, '08)
COMMENT
Delhi carries a small stick
India talks a good game, but it could play a much more proactive role in
regional and international security, if not for the greater good, then for its
own motives to stabilize its periphery and gain access to the natural resources
and markets on its doorstep. The attack on the Indian Embassy in Kabul could be
the spur Delhi needs. - Chietigj Bajpaee
(Jul 8, '08)
Tehran looks beyond Bush
Iran's seemingly positive response to the latest international initiative on
its nuclear program is attributed in some Western capitals to Tehran buckling
under the threat of an attack. This is unlikely. Iranian leaders are already
looking beyond the George W Bush presidency to an administration they feel they
can deal with, be it Democratic or Republican. - Trita Parsi
(Jul 8, '08)
THE ROVING EYE
Big Oil's 'secret' out of Iraq's
closet
The Iraqi war's worst-kept secret saw daylight this week with a report on the
role US government-led advisers played in drawing up contracts for Western oil
companies to develop Iraqi oil fields. The big prize is still being pursued, as
is the White House's other dream - a US$7.6 billion, 1,600-kilometer pipeline
through Afghanistan. - Pepe Escobar (Jul 3,
'08)
Iran willing to talk
Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki is in New York to bolster Iran's
embattled diplomacy. Mottaki has sounded off on issues ranging from the "Iran
Six" and Israel to Tehran's involvement in Iraq. Ultimately, he hinted at his
own flexibility by stating "the first word a diplomat learns is compromise". -
Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Jul 2, '08)
Does Iran have Bush over a barrel?
Last month's US$11 one-day spike in oil prices is the most spectacular
suggestion yet of a relationship between threats against Iran and the price of
oil. With three out of four voters in the United States saying gas prices will
be "very important" in deciding who they vote for in November's presidential
elections, this could be a deciding factor in the George W Bush administration
taking an attack on Iran "off the table". - Jim Lobe (Jul
1, '08)
Tehran puts on a show of strength
An Iranian general warns that work has already started on digging 320,000
graves for American soldiers should they fight in Iran. This can be dismissed
as just another salvo in the psychological warfare between Tehran and
Washington. But should the United States find a pretext - such as Iran being
goaded into blockading the Strait of Hormuz - and the real bullets start
flying, Iran can be expected to be prepared. - Sami Moubayed
(Jul 1, '08)
'Weak' Iran ripe to be attacked
A new line of thinking being put forward by influential analysts in the US
suggests that Iran should be attacked not because it is a threat, but for
precisely the opposite reason. Far from being an "existential threat" to
Israel, it is at present weak and has limited capability to retaliate to a US
or Israeli attack on its nuclear facilities. - Gareth Porter
(Jul 1, '08)
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ATol Specials
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Syed Saleem Shahzad reports on
the Afghan war from the Taliban side
(Dec '06)
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How
Hezbollah defeated Israel
By
Mark Perry and
Alastair Crooke
(Oct '06)
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Mark Perry and
Alastair Crooke
talk to the 'terrorists'
(Mar, '06)
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The evidence for and against Iran's alleged
nuclear weapons program
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Nir Rosen goes inside the Iraqi
resistance
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Nir Rosen rides with the 3rd
armored cavalry in western Iraq
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Islamism, fascism and
terrorism
by Marc Erikson
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For earlier articles go to:
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