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 War
and Terror
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November 2008
Mumbai's
night of terror
In a series of attacks by small groups of heavily armed men, more than 80
people have been killed in Mumbai. The financial capital of India has
experienced terror over the years, but nothing like this - pure and simple, it
was urban warfare. Raja Murthy was caught up in the action, and relates
some of the horror stories of foreigners who came under fire - they were the
prime targets in the bloody orgy of violence. (Nov
27,'08)
BOOK REVIEW
Military reform 30 years on
America’s Defense Meltdown edited by Winslow T Wheeler
After reading this book one can only conclude that with the US military's
budget at some trillion dollars annually, and mismanagement and bureaucracy at
their highest levels since the Vietnam war, the time is ripe for major reform
in the Pentagon and the military-industrial complex. But the authors don't just
criticize, they also offer sober, detailed solutions. - David Isenberg
(Nov 26,'08)
A brave new world awaits
Appointments by Barack Obama suggest the United States president-elect has a
firm grasp on the potential future outlined in US intelligence's latest peek
ahead to the year 2025. For one thing, his new economists seem well positioned
to manage "the unprecedented transfer of wealth from West to East". - David
Isenberg (Nov 25,'08)
THE ROVING EYE
Bush comfortable on the SOFA
When Iraqi parliamentarians vote on Wednesday on whether or not to endorse a
security pact with the United States, many of them will not have had the
opportunity to study the finer points. Perhaps all they need to know is that
the Pentagon and President George W Bush are very comfortable with it. - Pepe
Escobar (Nov 25,'08)
US military ripe for a fight with
Obama
President-elect Barack Obama inherits a chasm of mistrust between the Pentagon
and the White House, regardless of whether Defense Secretary Robert Gates stays
on. First, Obama has to avoid a confrontation over the "don't ask, don't tell"
policy on the sexuality of the forces. Then there are the deep splits sparked
by the difficulties in Iraq and Afghanistan: the counter-insurgency advocates
who feel besieged by the proponents of the "AirLand Battle" doctrine, aside
from those who favor post-combat "nation-building". - Mark Perry
(Nov 24,'08)
COMMENT
A new spin on Iran's nuclear fuel
The latest anti-Iran spin is that Tehran already has enough nuclear fuel for
one bomb and that its nuclear capability will increase substantially in the
near future. Combined with the "Clintonization" of the incoming Barack Obama
administration, there is little chance of a major change in Washington's Iran
policy while it remains influenced by the wheels of the "Fourth Estate". - Kaveh
L Afrasiabi (Nov 24,'08)
INTERVIEW
Taliban not talking peace
Mullah Mohammad Hasan Rahmani
 The
close adviser to Taliban leader Mullah Omar categorically rules out any notion
that the Taliban are a part of - or even plan to be - any peace process over
Afghanistan. It is all propaganda aimed to weaken the Taliban and their jihad,
Hasan Rahmani tells Syed Saleem Shahzad. And the Taliban will continue
their policy of attacking the supply lines of coalition forces.
(Nov 24,'08)
Last-minute scramble over Iraq's
pact
Iraq's controversial Status of Forces Agreement with the United States, which
calls for withdrawal of all US troops by 2011 yet gives the US long-term
privileges, has divided Iraqi politics like never before. If parliament fails
to reach consensus on Wednesday, a delay may deepen divisions among Shi'ites,
Kurds and Sunnis. There are still many deals to be cut before this unpopular
pact goes through. - Sami Moubayed (Nov
24,'08)
DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
Stuff happens in Iraq
The United States military has the ultimate argument against a reasonable
withdrawal from Iraq. Its strength lies in that it has nothing to do with the
vicissitudes of Iraqi politics, the relative power of Shi'ites or Sunnis, the
influence of Iran, or even the riptides of war. It is the simple fact that
logistically there is so much "stuff" in Iraq that withdrawal would take at
least three years. - Tom Engelhardt (Nov
21,'08)
Tokyo itches to take on pirates
If pacifist Japan has thus far disappointed the global community by failing to
step into the fight against Somali pirates, it may be more to do with
legislative gridlock than any lack of political will. Japan, with the world's
second-most powerful navy, could play a lead role in resolving the
hijacking crisis, but only if Tokyo can keep this issue apart from refueling
the United States-led war in Afghanistan. - Kosuke Takahashi
(Nov 20,'08)
The jolly life of a pirate ring
Through guile, fearlessness and terror, a ragtag bunch of modern-day buccaneers
from impoverished Somalia is defying the world's great navies, pillaging
merchant ships at will, and tightening its grip on essential trade lines to
Europe and Asia. The world, despite its romantic notions of free-wheeling
pirate kings, has had enough. Is it time for a "Captain Jack Sparrow wing at
Guantanamo"? (Nov 20,'08)
China all at sea off Africa
Hijackings of Chinese vessels off the coast of Africa underline the mistakes
Beijing has made in taking on hazardous resource and arms deals in volatile
parts of the continent. The risky strategy has given China a competitive edge,
but now the vulnerability of these ventures is being laid bare. - Bright Simons
(Nov 20,'08)
The US strikes deeper in Pakistan
The missile attack on Wednesday by a United States Predator drone on a village
in North-West Frontier Province is of extreme importance, not so much because
it might have killed members of al-Qaeda's inner council, but because it is the
first such action outside of Pakistan's semi-autonomous tribal areas. The US is
now taking the fight to the militants, wherever they might be. The next stop is
the cities. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Nov
20,'08)
Asia held hostage on the high seas
It has been centuries since armed robbery on the high seas has taken on the
dramatic geopolitical dimensions it has today. But piracy is back, and the
brazen recent successes of Somali buccaneers has shocked governments and
navies, and thrown oil companies and shipowners into panic. As this week's
hijacking of a Saudi oil supertanker shows, the risk of pillage and plunder is
getting worse, and leaders from Japan to South Korea to Hong Kong and India
want action to protect their trade routes. - Keith Wallis
(Nov 19,'08)
Taliban, US wrestle for the upper
hand
The Taliban have escalated their attacks on supply convoys passing through
Pakistan on the way to Afghanistan, while United States-led coalition forces
have stepped up activities in the Afghan province of Kunar in an attempt to
contain the cross-border flow of militants. Both sides are fighting to gain an
advantage ahead of bigger battles to come. - Syed Saleem Shahzad
(Nov 19,'08)
Iraq bids farewell to US arms
The security pact between the United States and Iraq closes the door to a
further US military presence beyond 2011 even more tightly than the previous
draft and locks in a swift end to Iraqi dependence on the US military that
appears to be irreversible. What was supposed to be a client regime was instead
waiting for the right moment to assert real control. - Gareth Porter
(Nov 19,'08)
Plus and minus: How to win in
Afghanistan
Whether it is policymakers in the next United States administration or a
renegade veteran of the Afghan war with horror stories to tell, Operation
Enduring Freedom of 2001 has become an operation of enduring disaster. A
military-plus solution to the conflict - centered on a "surge" - cannot work,
while a military-minus solution, involving the mobilization of all the regional
actors, might. This would represent a true break from present US policy. - Tariq
Ali (Nov 18,'08)
Obama-tied group wants 'dramatic'
shift
A new report released in Washington, the product of a year-long study that
included consultations with experts on South Asia expected to be included in
president-elect Barack Obama's administration, calls for a "dramatic strategic
shift" in the US's policy towards Pakistan. Failing this, counter-insurgency
efforts against al-Qaeda and militants are unlikely to succeed. - Jim Lobe
(Nov 18,'08)
Al-Qaeda 'awakens' in Iraq
The policy of al-Qaeda in Iraq in its fight against Awakening Councils in Sunni
tribal areas has been to assassinate the movement's leaders. Al-Qaeda has now
set its sights on recruiting council youths disenchanted by the Iraqi
government's attempts to integrate them into the regular security forces.
(Nov 18,'08)
Obama urged to forgo Iran threats
The battle for president-elect Barack Obama's ear on the Iran nuclear issue has
intensified, with a recent high-level report recommending rapprochement through
careful diplomacy, while hawkish groups want to keep the attack option open.
All the while, the jockeying for a place on Obama's foreign policy team
continues apace. - Jim Lobe (Nov 17,'08)
US wins early round over
Iraq
The Iraqi cabinet's approval on Sunday of a draft agreement with Washington on
the United States presence in Iraq is a key landmark in the struggle for
influence in the country between Iran and the US. Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki
and his allies lost this battle, but they have not lost the war - this showdown
takes place in the Iraqi parliament in a week's time. - Sami Moubayed
(Nov 17,'08)
THE ROVING EYE
A pact with the devil
Influential Shi'ite leader Muqtada al-Sadr is already threatening fire and
brimstone over the Iraqi cabinet's approval of a draft security agreement with
the United States. But Muqtada, currently studying in Iran, is in a difficult
position: he has to confront the problem that in strategic terms, Tehran
subscribes to not attacking US troops as the best way for the Americans to
eventually leave. - Pepe Escobar(Nov 17,'08)
US again misfires on Iranian arms
For more than 18 months, the United States has scrambled to link Iran to covert
arms assistance to Iraq's Shi'ite militias. But a US military task force has
now found that Iranian-made weapons are less than 1% of the total weapons found
in Shi'ite caches, suggesting that weapons are arriving from local and
international arms markets rather than an Iran-sponsored smuggling network. - Gareth
Porter (Nov 17,'08)
Afghanistan abyss awaits Obama
The manner in which the United States and Britain have established a
stranglehold on setting policy for the war in Afghanistan all but ensures that
president-elect Barack Obama will lose his way and will never get anywhere near
a settlement for the country - unless he is prepared to take some very bold
decisions. Talking to Iran and Russia would be a start. - M K Bhadrakumar
(Nov 14,'08)
Pakistan torn
over its tribal areas
As in the Bajaur Agency tribal area, the Pakistani military is fighting a
losing battle against militants in the Swat Valley. Militants are also
streaming into the provincial capital of Peshawar, where this week they
abducted an Iranian envoy. The top brass in Islamabad realize their troops face
a long hard winter of attrition if they stay put, but pulling out is equally
unpalatable.- Syed Saleem Shahzad (Nov
14,'08)
Obama already under the gun
over Iraq
President-elect Barack Obama faces a broad campaign by military officials and
their supporters in the political elite and the news media to drop his plan to
withdraw United States troops from Iraq in as little as 16 months. But a
retreat by the George W Bush administration on the same front means Obama may
not require the "wiggle room" for compromise that he built into his campaign
pledges. - Gareth Porter (Nov 13,'08)
Saudis step into Pakistan's quagmire
The first part of the Washington-backed plan worked perfectly - the rise to
power in Pakistan of liberal, secular political parties. In the next step, to
define and implement a strong response in the United States-led "war on terror"
against militancy, the coalition government has failed miserably. The US has
been forced to call on Saudi Arabia to act as a middleman, lest the whole
initiative spin completely out of control. - Syed Saleem Shahzad
(Nov 12, '08)
The inevitability of a nuclear Iran
Plans by neo-conservatives in the United States to use "airstrike diplomacy" to
smash Iran's nuclear aspirations and force it to negotiate were derided at a
recent council on US-Arab relations as "utter folly" which would unleash a
"titanic crisis". Despite neo-con and Israeli efforts, diplomatic failures by
the George W Bush administration are leading to the inevitable acquiescence of
the US to a nuclear Iran. (Nov 12, '08)
Syrians stare terror in the face
Syrians have been rocked by revelations that several members of the
Lebanon-based terror group that carried out a deadly suicide attack in Damascus
in September were Syrians. This is testimony to just how vulnerable Syria has
become to terrorism and fundamentalism, and indicates that such groups must
have already infiltrated more vulnerable places like Lebanon, Iraq and Jordan.
- Sami Moubayed (Nov 7,'08)
A strike against 'Iranophobia'
Arriving in Tehran this week with the head of the Gulf Cooperation Council
comes the Arab trade bloc's support for Iran's nuclear program and a
willingness to discuss Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad's economic,
political and security proposals. The oil sheikdoms, it seems, are no longer
sold on the West's "Iranphobia" nor the effectiveness of its sanctions regime.
- Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Nov 3,'08)
Two, three, many 'grand bargains'?
A series of interlocking "grand bargains" could offer the next US president a
way out of a foreign policy quagmire. Luckily, a four-pronged regional
initiative to pacify Afghanistan, integrate Iran, promote reconciliation in
Iraq and launch a credible peace process between Israel and the Arab world has
already been devised. - Jim Lobe (Nov 3,'08)
US division doesn't add up
General David Petraeus, head of the United States Central Command, is in
Pakistan to push his plan to engage sections of the Afghan resistance and
divide them from hardcore elements, including al-Qaeda. A similar initiative
had some success with the Sunni resistance in Iraq, but in South Asia loyalties
are much more complex, as illustrated by Arab commander Abu Akash, reportedly
killed in a US strike. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Nov
3,'08)
American dream expelled from Syria
The closure of the American school in Damascus, in response to the recent
United States raid into Syria, is a blow for Washington's hopes of winning over
young hearts and minds in the Arab world. It is also a sad epitaph for the
institution, which had promoted the "American dream" to young Syrians since the
Dwight D Eisenhower administration. - Sami Moubayed
(Nov 3,'08)
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ATol Specials
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Syed Saleem Shahzad reports on
the Afghan war from the Taliban side
(Dec '06)
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How
Hezbollah defeated Israel
By
Mark Perry and
Alastair Crooke
(Oct '06)
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Mark Perry and
Alastair Crooke
talk to the 'terrorists'
(Mar, '06)
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The evidence for and against Iran's alleged
nuclear weapons program
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Nir Rosen goes inside the Iraqi
resistance
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Nir Rosen rides with the 3rd
armored cavalry in western Iraq
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Islamism, fascism and
terrorism
by Marc Erikson
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For earlier articles go to:
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