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 War
and Terror
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December 2008
Pakistan's spies reined in
After several failed attempts, Pakistan is taking steps to clip the wings of
the powerful military dominated Inter-Services Intelligence, which has
consistently been accused of dragging its feet in prosecuting the United
States-led "war on terror". At the same time, the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization is trying to clear the path for its surge in Afghanistan. - Syed
Saleem Shahzad (Dec 24,'08)
MUJAHIDEEN BLEED-THROUGH, Part 4
Palestine and Israel: A ring
of terror tightens
What for many years has been an unimaginable goal for al-Qaeda and other Sunni
militants - a stronger presence in Palestine and Israel and an ability to
attack inside Israel - now seems within reach thanks to the westward-bound
jihad highway to the Levant unintentionally created by the United States-led
war in Iraq. - Michael Scheuer (Dec 24,'08)
This is the concluding article of a four-part series.
 Part 1:
Syria: Terror's
made-to-order milieu
Part 2:
Lebanon: Last stop on
a jihad highway
Part 3:
Jordan: Al-Qaeda
clouds the future
Why Pakistan's military is gun shy
The Pakistan military has been outmaneuvered by the government over having a
group linked to the attack on Mumbai declared a front for a terror
organization. But the military remains bitterly opposed to a realistic
crackdown on militants, and it has compelling reasons for this that go to the
core of the country's survival. - Syed Saleem Shahzad
(Dec 23,'08)
The 'other Iraq' forges ahead
The semi-autonomous Kurdish Regional Government in northern Iraq encourages
tourists with imagery of breathtaking scenery and promises of relative calm.
More important in terms of politics, it is looking to exploit the most valuable
asset in its possession, oil. It is on this point the region's stability hinges
- disagreements with Baghdad over oil ownership could be far more divisive than
the Sunni-Shi'ite conflict that spawned the 2005-2007 sectarian war. - Stephen
Starr (Dec 22,'08)
Mumbai attacks leave NYPD blues
Even the celebrated reopening of Mumbai's iconic luxury hotels can't
accommodate the fact that the city has failed to learn its lessons from 15
tragic years of terrorist attacks. After a fatal nine hours of delay, Mumbai
police, wielding bamboo sticks and World War II-era rifles, were outgunned by
terrorists with AK-47s and grenades. The once-proud "Scotland Yard of the East"
needs to take a page from New York City's finest. - Raja Murthy
(Dec 22,'08)
A shot at Iran via Iraq
United States Secretary of Defense Robert Gates has called on the six members
of the Gulf Cooperation Council, of which Saudi Arabia is a key member, to
forge closer ties with Iraq as a way to limit Iran. On the contrary, such a
move could help the six countries maintain healthy and normal relations with
Tehran. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Dec 22,'08)
All roads lead out of
Afghanistan
The focus on the fate of al-Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan
disguises the full range of the bitterly fought geopolitical struggle in the
region. The maneuverings over Afghan supply routes mask a crucial bid by the
United States to expand its influence into the Russian, Chinese and Iranian
backyards in Central Asia. Inevitably, this will force Moscow and Tehran to
join hands; missile sales between these countries are a harbinger of things to
come. - M K Bhadrakumar (Dec 19,'08)
BOOK REVIEW
Comrades in contradiction
Persian Dreams by John W Parker
This is an exhaustive untangling of Russia's and Iran's imploding, fluctuating
and expanding ties since the latter's revolution in 1979. It triangulates the
nations' relationships with the United States, illuminates the contradictions
of their dealings during the civil wars in Tajikistan and Afghanistan, and
brings to light the pivotal role a newly resurgent and perhaps nuclear Iran
will play in Moscow's chessboard across Central Asia and the Caucasus. - Ian
Chesley (Dec 19,'08)
US military 'to defy' Iraqi pact
Evidence has emerged that United States military leaders and Pentagon officials
are scheming to circumvent the security agreement between the United States and
Iraq. Beyond the aim of getting president-elect Barack Obama to abandon his
16-month withdrawal plan, the group hopes to pressure Obama into a long-term US
military presence in Iraq. - Gareth Porter (Dec
19,'08)
Pirates draw China to the high seas
As China prepares to send its navy to Somali waters to fight the recent surge
in piracy, talk is heating up about the possibility of Beijing building the
country's first aircraft carrier. Concerns it would use the vessel to attack
Taiwan are unfounded, says China, provided the island doesn't step out of line.
- John Ng (Dec 18,'08)
Orwell revisited: Iran and dirty
bombs
Iran fear-mongers in the United States are now seeking other evidence to
disprove US intelligence reports that Tehran is not developing a nuclear
weapon. Some of them have settled on the next best alternative - the "hostile
other" has the capability to produce dirty bombs, even though such devices can
be made by using material from literally tens of thousands of sources. - Kaveh L
Afrasiabi (Dec 18,'08)
THE ROVING EYE
The emperor gets the boot
Call it poetic justice, but in the end President George W Bush found his
weapons of mass destruction - in the form of two size 10 shoes hurled at his
head. Bush may have dodged them with his "cat-like" reflexes, but
metaphorically they managed to strike the huge army of assorted profiteers that
made the Iraqi tragedy possible, while putting US public opinion to shame. The
thrower, meanwhile, is being hailed across the Arab world. - Pepe Escobar
(Dec 17,'08)
Pakistan groups banned but not
bowed
The move by the United Nations to declare Jamaatut Dawa a front for the
Lashkar-e-Taiba, the banned Pakistani group linked to last month's Mumbai
attack, has rallied public support for Jamaatut Dawa inside Pakistan. Founded
by a deputy of al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, then hijacked by Saudi and
United States intelligence, Jamaatut Dawa, along with Lashkar-e-Taiba, has
evolved to play a vital role in Pakistan that won't easily be wiped out. - Syed
Saleem Shahzad (Dec 17,'08)
Delhi's options on Pakistan still
open
The likelihood of India launching major punitive military operations across the
border following the Mumbai attacks last month has diminished, but New Delhi
has other means of applying pressure on Pakistan over militancy in that
country, including a naval blockade. - Richard M Bennett
(Dec 16,'08)
A peek into Iran's nuclear
Pandora's box
If Moscow's combined intelligence agencies are in agreement that Iran does not
have nuclear-weapons capability, it calls for serious rethinking about whether
the "crisis" built up over Tehran going nuclear was nothing but the
neo-conservatives' bogey to roll back Iran's rise as the impresario of a
Shi'ite resurgence in the Middle East. - Sreeram Chaulia
(Dec 16,'08)
The monster in India's mirror
As the carnage in Mumbai raged on, day after horrible day, 24-hour news
channels informed the world it was watching "India's 9/11". But November isn't
September, 2008 isn't 2001, Pakistan isn't Afghanistan, and India isn't
America. So perhaps India should reclaim its tragedy and pick through the
debris with its own brains and its own broken hearts so that Indians can arrive
at their own conclusions. - Arundhati Roy (Dec
15,'08)
 SPENGLER
The failed Muslim
states to come
Financial crises, like epidemics, kill the unhealthy first. The present crisis
is painful for most of the world but deadly for many Muslim countries, and
especially so for the most populous ones. From Pakistan to Indonesia, and not
excluding Saudi Arabia, the likelihood of states failing along the lines of
Somalia are increasing. Policy makers have not begun to assess the damage.
(Dec 15,'08)
COMMENT
A novel way to tackle Pakistan
All the roads of terrorism and weapons of mass destruction intersect in
Pakistan, according to a new report by a US Congress committee. The world
community could resort to an "international humanitarian intervention" in the
face of this threat, or more radically, circumscribe the country's sovereignty
and place it under custodianship. - Sreeram Chaulia
(Dec 15,'08)
Another blow to NATO's supplies
Taliban militants in the Pakistani city of Peshawar at the weekend destroyed
another batch of North Atlantic Treaty Organization containers bound for
Afghanistan, bringing the total lost to more than 400 in the past few weeks.
Local contractors and drivers are becoming too afraid to do their jobs, while
NATO is stepping up efforts to find alternative routes. - Syed Saleem Shahzad
(Dec 15,'08)
Pakistan's military takes a big
hit
Pakistani authorities have wasted no time in implementing the declaration by
the United Nations of the Jamaatut Dawa as a terror organization. Leaders of
the group - now internationally designated as linked to the outfit involved in
the Mumbai attack - have been rounded up, and its assets frozen. Significantly,
the action was taken against the wishes of the military, which was
outmaneuvered. Next, Islamabad's leaders have to tackle the country's
all-powerful spy agency. - Syed Saleem Shahzad
(Dec 12,'08)
Fallout from Pentagon's gaffe spreads
As nuclear disarmament talks with North Korea again break down, Tokyo and Seoul
are reeling from the Pentagon's "mistake" of describing North Korea as a
nuclear power and from remarks by US Defense Secretary Robert Gates claiming
North Korea has built several nuclear bombs. - Kosuke Takahashi
(Dec 12,'08)
China not holding India's hand on
terror
The United Nations Security Council designated the Pakistani Jamaatut Dawa a
terrorist organization on Wednesday after three earlier attempts to do so were
blocked by China. Beijing's change of heart came from international pressure
rather than newfound support for India's terrorism concerns. Delhi is unlikely
to miss that point. - Sudha Ramachandran (Dec
11,'08)
The great wall between Iran and
the US
In their 30-year quest to consolidate, widen and deepen the Islamic Revolution
of 1979, the arguably biggest achievement of the high priests of the Islamic
Republic of Iran has been the emergence of the country as the most serious and
effective anti-American force in the world. At the heart of this lies a "wall
of mistrust" within Iran of the "Great Satan", one that will not be easily
breached, even if Iran's rulers wanted to. - Mahan Abedin
(Dec 11,'08)
THE OUTSIDER
Captain Bush's great white whale
Only one man can rescue Pakistan from the consequences of the Mumbai attacks:
Osama bin Laden. But President Asif Ali Zardari's administration isn't the only
teetering government that would need an uncustomary burst of competence to make
this happen. Washington would need uncharacteristic finesse to broker bin
Laden's capture - but it could just alter history's verdict on George W Bush. - Muhammad
Cohen (Dec 9,'08)
SPEAKING FREELY
History haunts Saudi strategy with
Syria
When the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia supplied men, arms,
equipment and money to the Afghan resistance. Yet this chastening experience -
that of sponsoring a religious war only to receive severe blowback some time
later - does not appear to have altered Saudi strategic thinking. There is
growing evidence that they are now doing precisely the same thing in Lebanon. - David
B Roberts (Dec 9,'08)
India, Russia regain elan of
friendship
The Mumbai attacks may prove to be a watershed in New Delhi's regional
strategies, with China, Iran and Russia assuming new levels of importance. The
gravitation towards the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and its possible role
in a regional initiative in Afghanistan proves New Delhi has come a long way.
Surely, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev returned to Moscow from Delhi last
week with a smile on his face. - M K Bhadrakumar
(Dec 8,'08)
Militants strike as Pakistan cracks
down
In two incidents on Sunday, militants in Pakistan destroyed hundreds of North
Atlantic Treaty Organization supply containers bound for Afghanistan. The scale
and audacity of the raids overshadowed Islamabad's crackdown on a Pakistani
militant group linked to the attacks in India last month. The episodes are not
unrelated, and neither is the likelihood of a resurgence of al-Qaeda in the
region, notably in India. - Syed Saleem Shahzad
(Dec 8,'08)
India sets sights on Pakistani camps
The deadly attacks in Mumbai may have provided enough impetus for India to
attack militant camps inside Pakistan-administered Kashmir, according to a
senior Indian official. New Delhi has already set up a federal anti-terror
agency and has sought out Israel for assistance. It's all fine by Washington,
as long as it doesn't lead to all-out war with Pakistan. - Siddharth Srivastava
(Dec 5,'08)
Deep in the land of the Taliban
If there is an exact location marking the West's failures in Afghanistan, it is
the modest police checkpoint that sits on the main highway 20 minutes south of
Kabul. The post signals the edge of the capital. Beyond this point, the
American-backed government of Afghanistan no longer exists and the territory
becomes that of the Taliban, a decentralized slippery melange of nationalists,
Islamists and bandits that morphs from district to district. - Anand Gopal
(Dec 5,'08)
Pakistan follows its own path
The military command in Pakistan has made it clear that it is not prepared to
take the "direct" action against militants that the United States is demanding
in the wake of the attacks on Mumbai last week. The military says it will do
things its own way, including putting pressure on former officials of the
Inter-Services Intelligence, a half-hearted move that could backfire
spectacularly. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Dec
5,'08)
Iran's breakout incapability
Claims in the United States that Iran is rapidly approaching "nuclear breakout
capability" are mostly based on assumptions and conjecture. The real hope for a
breakthrough in US-Iran relations hinges on avoiding rehashed calls for
"coercive diplomacy" and recognition of Tehran's willingness to embrace
transparency demands. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Dec
5,'08)
Mumbai aftershocks rattle
Pakistan
All 10 young men of the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba were expected to be
"sacrificed" in their attack on Mumbai last week. That one was captured and
revealed his story has dramatically changed the dynamics of the region.
Washington is pressing Islamabad to root out the militant group, but if this
happens, the militants will turn their guns on Pakistan, and escalate tensions
with India. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Dec 4,'08)
Singing canary in a terrorist opera
In the absence of a strong leader to soothe a shocked nation, Indian officials
appear to be ad-libbing about the Mumbai attacks. There is still no government
spokesperson or even official statements on India's position. Into the vacuum
of information have come contradictory "confessions" of captured Pakistani
terrorist Ajmal Amir Kasab. - Raja Murthy (Dec
4,'08)
Taj Mahal leads India's recovery
The venerable Taj Mahal Palace hotel has become the rallying symbol as Mumbai
recovers from last week's multiple terrorist strikes that killed 183 people and
injured over 325. The owners and staff are doing their best to return the
luxury heritage establishment to normal, and as if on cue, the Indian
government and media have in unprecedented fashion refrained from strongly
condemning Pakistan, from where the terrorists originated. - Raja Murthy
(Dec 2,'08)
Cornered Tigers look to India
Things are looking bleak for Sri Lanka's Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam as
the separatist group fast loses key strongholds. The Tigers want India to push
Colombo to call a ceasefire, but in light of the Mumbai terror attacks,
softening its stance on the Tigers is not yet on New Delhi's agenda. - Sudha
Ramachandran (Dec 2,'08)
Al-Qaeda 'hijack' led to Mumbai
attack
The militants who carried out the attacks on Mumbai last week were originally
meant to head for Kashmir as part of a low-profile campaign of
Pakistani-sponsored militancy there. But key reshuffles within Pakistan's
Inter-Services Intelligence and Islamabad's refocus on unrest in the tribal
areas that neighbor Afghanistan resulted in al-Qaeda hijacking the operation. - Syed
Saleem Shahzad (Dec 1,'08)
Strange storm brews in South
Asia
Washington is trying to cool tempers and avoid an eyeball-to-eyeball
confrontation between India and Pakistan in the wake of last week's terror
attack in Mumbai - even as both the nuclear-armed adversaries race to get the
United States on their respective good side. China, Israel and others are
watching the emergence of a new South Asian power equation from the wings, but
the US is a full-fledged participant, thanks to the war in Afghanistan, which
is critically poised. - M K Bhadrakumar (Dec
1,'08)
 CHAN
AKYA
The hottest place in the world
The Mumbai terror attacks present the next-level gambit of an extremist
takeover of Pakistan as the government’s ability to act becomes increasingly
restricted and free agents call the shots across the security spectrum. India's
callous disregard for improving its security infrastructure to protect innocent
taxpayers is tragic, but not surprising given the utter inefficiency of the
current government. (Dec 1,'08)
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ATol Specials
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Syed Saleem Shahzad reports on
the Afghan war from the Taliban side
(Dec '06)
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How
Hezbollah defeated Israel
By
Mark Perry and
Alastair Crooke
(Oct '06)
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Mark Perry and
Alastair Crooke
talk to the 'terrorists'
(Mar, '06)
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The evidence for and against Iran's alleged
nuclear weapons program
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Nir Rosen goes inside the Iraqi
resistance
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Nir Rosen rides with the 3rd
armored cavalry in western Iraq
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Islamism, fascism and
terrorism
by Marc Erikson
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For earlier articles go to:
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