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 War
and Terror
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January 2009
Iran's nuclear terrorism fears
Tehran is nervously watching developments in Pakistan, fearing extremist groups
could somehow get their hands on nuclear bombs and use them against Iran. This
is a possibility Tehran cannot ignore and the situation is dire enough to
warrant direct security dialogue with the United States, although Washington
would have to dramatically change its tune. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi
(Jan 30,'09)
Biden may hold unclenched
Iranian hand
As leading security figures gather next weekend in Munich, the focus will be on
a possible meeting between United States Vice President Joseph Biden and a
"very high-ranking" Iranian official. Washington knows it has no better
potential ally than Iran in Afghanistan, so if Biden, the grey cardinal of US
foreign policy, extends his hand to the as-yet-unnamed Iranian, he will be
doing so not a day too soon. - M K Bhadrakumar
(Jan 30,'09)
Russia and Iran get strategic
Rosy predictions of United States-Iranian relations improving under the new US
president have been muddied by clear signs that Russia is pursuing Tehran as a
"strategic partner". The US's hard line has forced Iran into Moscow's embrace,
and the energy and arms ties nurtured since could well be crucial come the
major US-Russia military confrontation looming over the Middle East and Central
Asia. (Jan 29,'09)
THE ROVING EYE
Obama's arc of instability
Announcing his new State Department, United States President Barack Obama
stressed "America's commitment to lead". But lead where? Where's the boldness,
the real change of mindset? The Pentagon's "arc of instability" hovers over
Obama's "Clinton-3" State Department like a ghostly self-fulfilling prophecy.
Unless, of course, the Obama White House really kicks out ideology and steers
the US back to politics. - Pepe Escobar (Jan
29,'09)
Obama, Iran and Afghanistan
United States President Barack Obama has promised a "new way forward" with Iran
and the Middle East, and Tehran is anxious to see it. The common ground may be
Afghanistan, where Obama is transferring troops and Iran is increasingly
worried about the Taliban. Given their shared concerns, the time for Tehran and
Washington to begin earnest discussions on Afghanistan is now. - Kaveh L
Afrasiabi (Jan 28,'09)
Gates returns to his Tehran hard
line
Recent accusations from United States Defense Secretary Robert Gates that Iran
is engaged in "subversive activity" sound oddly familiar. As a senior Central
Intelligence Agency official and advisor to presidents, Gates has claimed for
years that Iran wants weapons of mass destruction and plans terrorist attacks.
And this would not be the first time Gates has used intelligence claims to
torpedo an opening with an adversary. - Gareth Porter
(Jan 28,'09)
Obama's quick start raises hopes
President Barack Obama has stunned observers with his swift moves to address
the Arab-Israeli conflict, including giving his first television interview to
the Saudi-owned al-Arabiya. While his overtures have yet to become concrete
action, they have clearly raised hopes in the Middle East and given heart to
many in Washington who feel they've been ignored for the past eight years. - Jim
Lobe (Jan 28,'09)
Mitchell's challenge
The two-state solution, the central focus of efforts to end the tragedy of
Israel and Palestine since 1967, has been undermined by the presence of Israel
in the West Bank, and so fragmented is Palestinian life - both physically and
politically - that it now requires death-defying mental gymnastics to imagine
how a two-state solution could ever be implemented. New US Middle East envoy
George Mitchell has a mighty task ahead. - Sandy Tolan
(Jan 27,'09)
Sri Lankan officials in the firing
line
A constitutional lawyer in the United States is preparing indictments against
two of Sri Lanka's high-profile military officials, both US citizens, over
alleged acts of genocide in the war against Tamil rebels. The lawyer admits,
though, that garnering support from US politicians for his cause will likely be
difficult. - Munza Mushtaq (Jan 27,'09)
Russia stops US on road to
Afghanistan
Moscow has indeed agreed in principle to grant permission to the United States
to use a transit route to Afghanistan via Russian territory. But before this
happens, Russia wants something in return: to challenge the US's secret veto
power over Afghanistan's external relations and to prise Kabul out of
Washington's stranglehold. - M K Bhadrakumar (Jan
26,'09)
Sri Lanka hunts a Tiger chief
A string of decisive blows inflicted by the Sri Lankan armed forces has left
the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam cowering. But there is no sign of the
Tigers' legendary supremo, Velupillai Prabhakaran. Whether he has slipped off
the island or gone deep into one of his legendary bunkers, the world's most
brilliant guerrilla strategist is running out of options. - Sudha Ramachandran
(Jan 26,'09)
Taliban shape an opium economy
As every taxman knows, more valuable production generates stronger revenue, and
there are few commodities more valuable for an insurgent taxman than opium. In
Afghanistan, this means the Taliban, who now have almost complete control of
the opium economy. If the insurgency is rolled back, it will reveal government
banditry, criminal collusion, and some rebels will be re-classified as drug
lords. (Jan 26,'09)
Gaza’s 'ghost' suicide bombers
unveiled
Hamas suicide bombers are determined young individuals, carefully nurtured by
religious clerics and Islamic preachers before being given special training on
Israeli weapons and tactics, says their trainer. The bombers - known as
"ghosts" to Gaza militants - are said to be preparing for attacks inside
Israel, but on recent form, they could prove ineffectual.
(Jan 26,'09)
Obama adds diplomatic dynamite
At a briefing led by new Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, United States
President Barack Obama named two legendary negotiators as special envoys to
deal with the Israel-Arab conflict and "the deteriorating situation" in
Afghanistan and Pakistan, respectively. A third veteran diplomat is expected to
be named specifically to handle US relations with Iran. - Jim Lobe
(Jan 23,'09)
Tearing up the US's Middle East
playbook
If US President Barack Obama is to have any positive impact on the cycle of
destruction and death in Gaza, he must be able to understand the experience of
the people in the Palestinian refugee camp of Jabaliya as much as he does the
experience of the Israelis in the town of Sderot who endure Hamas' rockets. - Tony
Karon (Jan 23,'09)
India's 'nuke' cruise missile test
fails
India's efforts this week to test the radar-evading BrahMos supersonic cruise
missile as a "precision strike weapon" failed as its configuration to carry a
nuclear warhead instead of a conventional one malfunctioned. Undeterred, New
Delhi says it will conduct more tests. - Siddharth Srivastava
(Jan 22,'09)
Kabul's rift with the US widens
President Hamid Karzai is making it clear to Washington he'll be no pushover
should the United States indeed be seeking a regime change in Afghanistan to
support its "surge" strategy. A consummate politician, Karzai has made some
smart calculations of late and acquired unlikely allies in Germany and France.
Afghan presidential elections are due this year and Karzai is digging in for a
fight. - M K Bhadrakumar (Jan 22,'09)
Flirting in the Green Zone
Despite female Iraqi visitors missing US protection from the gauntlet of
insults and innuendo they run when entering the famously super-protected Green
Zone, most Baghdadis are overjoyed by its transfer from US to Iraqi control.
The Iraqi guards, aside from their frisky flirting, are seen as more
understanding, though questions remain over their competence. - Abeer Mohammed
(Jan 22,'09)
Maliki papers some cracks,
opens others
Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki is attempting to use this month's
provincial elections as a platform to consolidate his position by appealing to
a broad spectrum of the electorate. In this he has had some success. But his
high-handed move to restrict the integration of the Sunni Awakening Councils
into the security forces has alienated those who could have been powerful
allies. The Kurds, meanwhile, are seething. - Sami Moubayed
(Jan 22,'09)
Pakistan's shift alarms the US
United States Central Command chief General David Petraeus may have solved one
problem by arranging alternative supply routes to the attack-prone ones that
currently pass through Pakistan on their way to North Atlantic Treaty
Organization troops in Afghanistan. Now he has to deal with Pakistan's military
focus on India, at the expense of the troubled tribal areas from where the
Taliban draw much of their strength. - Syed Saleem Shahzad
(Jan 21,'09)
Obama and the other ceasefire
In his inaugural speech, President Barack Obama promised the Muslim world "a
new way forward". With conflicts raging in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the Middle
East appalled by the smoldering war in Gaza, Obama's pledge was exquisitely
timed. Still, many are waiting to see if the new president will keep his
promise or turn once again to America's old ally, Israel. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi
(Jan 21,'09)
China's military awaits new satellites
Compass will be ready by 2015, when this satellite-based toolset will become
another important component of the People's Liberation Army's formidable and
growing arsenal. With the Chinese navy already on patrol far away in the Indian
Ocean, China needs complete control of its own GPS satellite fleet to ensure
success on land and at sea. - Peter J Brown (Jan
21,'09)
Indian army 'backed out' of Pakistan
attack
Following the Mumbai terror attack last November, India was on the brink of
launching raids on Pakistan for its suspected links with the terrorists. But
while the Indian navy and air force were ready to join battle, the army,
apparently citing inferior equipment, balked. - Siddharth Srivastava
(Jan 20,'09)
Afghanistan hit by friendly fire
Members of Barack Obama's incoming US administration have taken unusually blunt
pot shots at President Hamid Karzai and his government in Afghanistan, setting
a belligerent tone that does not augur well for the important relations between
the countries and the battle against the Taliban. Browbeating and damning
Karzai will not end the stalemate in the war. Indeed, he remains the US's best
choice. - M K Bhadrakumar (Jan 20,'09)
Old battles, new contenders in the
Gulf
As the Arab divide over support for Palestine exposes the inherent frailties of
the Arab League, a remarkable power struggle has erupted between traditionally
dominant Saudi Arabia and new player Qatar over who will take command of the
crisis. With its booming economy, forward-thinking leader and Arab nationalist
stance, Doha is emerging as a powerful challenger to Riyadh's supremacy in the
Gulf. - Sami Moubayed (Jan 16,'09)
Keeping Pakistan's nukes
extremist-free
Pakistan has made great strides in the security of its nuclear weapons, yet
fears linger that its arsenal could fall into the hands of extremists, given
the links between sections of the military and intelligence with jihadis.
Harebrained schemes have been floated for intervention by the United States
should the situation appear to be getting out of control. But ultimately it's
only the people of Pakistan who can guarantee their nuclear safety. - Russ
Wellen (Jan 15,'09)
India and the US talk missile
defense
Indian officials say Washington and New Delhi aim to jointly build a ballistic
missile defense system in the face of perceived threats from Pakistan and
China's growing clout. This falls in line with the pair's deepening defense
relationship, although Russia, France and Israel still supply the bulk of
India's military hardware. - Siddharth Srivastava
(Jan 14,'09)
Iran pushed to the pre-electronic
age
An apparent United States covert operation aimed at "sabotaging" Iran's nuclear
program, one that targets industrial infrastructure and computer systems, goes
hand-in-hand with efforts to keep "dual-purpose" technology out of the country,
such as that which could be used in manufacturing improvised explosive devices.
- Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Jan 13,'09)
COMMENT
Gaza: A pawn in the new 'great
game'
As the humanitarian disaster in Gaza continues, Western mediators seem more
concerned about the global war of "moderates" versus "extremists" than in
achieving a solution. Attempts to fit this simplistic template over a complex
Middle East have reduced the Palestinian crisis to a chess piece in the
existential global struggle against extremism. - Alastair Crooke
(Jan 13,'09)
Tigers turn on themselves
Reports of a split between the leader of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam,
Velupillai Prabhakaran, and his powerful deputy, intelligence chief Pottu
Amman, might well be a fabrication of the Sri Lankan authorities in an attempt
to deepen already plunging morale among Tiger cadres. All the same, the
development could have a devastating effect. - Sudha Ramachandran
(Jan 12,'09)
 SPENGLER
What Obama knows,
Americans have forgotten
Whether president-elect Barack Obama is a Western sentimentalist or a Third
World anthropologist who has talked his way into the leadership of the United
States is unclear. Confronted with multiple crises that threaten the power of
the US, this clever Luo from Hawaii by way of Indonesia may defend his
prerogatives more ferociously than anyone expects. (Jan
12,'09)
Tunnel vision beneath Gaza
Jerusalem believes that the only way to protect Israelis is to secure the
Philadelphi Corridor, the 14-kilometer border between Gaza and Egypt, beneath
which lie some 300 makeshift tunnels used by Hamas to smuggle food, fuel and
enormous amounts of weapons. But whoever or whatever patrols the border,
indulging Israel's tunnel vision will not keep weapons out of Gaza. - David H
Young (Jan 12,'09)
A nuclear threat is exposed
A report by a team of United States experts on the proliferation of weapons of
mass destruction warns that a nuclear war isn't as unlikely as some would like
to think. The findings claim the global nuclear order (think North Korea) is no
more secure today than the financial order was a year ago. Also alarming is the
potential for a nuclear arms race in Asia and the Middle East. - Donald Kirk
(Jan 12,'09)
The Afghan reconstruction boondoggle
Consideration of what has gone awry in Afghanistan generally focuses on the
George W Bush administration's failures in military strategy and tactics. But
everyone's looking in the wrong direction - the administration perpetrated a
scam by using the system it set up to dispense reconstruction aid to transfer
American taxpayer dollars from the national treasury directly into the pockets
of private war profiteers. - Ann Jones (Jan
12,'09)
Washington loses a vital link
Just hours before launching a crackdown on militants, as per Washington's and
Delhi's desires, the Pakistan government caved in to the demands of its
military and instead fired National Security Advisor Mahmood Durrani. Durrani,
with his close ties to the United States, was key to the US's plans for the
region, notably for Afghanistan. - Syed Saleem Shahzad
(Jan 9,'09)
Obama, soccer and South Asian
security
Washington is stepping up pressure on Islamabad to act on evidence regarding
the Mumbai terror attacks. Indeed, United States influence in South Asia has
never before been as paramount, it being in a position to swing the outcome of
an Indian election, apart from molding the flawed India-Pakistan relationship.
But there is a caveat - the US must first get Islamabad to bend. - M K
Bhadrakumar (Jan 9,'09)
Rocket strikes reveal new foe in
Lebanon
If Hezbollah wasn't behind the rocket attacks launched on Israel from South
Lebanon on January 8, then who was? The question is clouded by the emergence of
the Arab Islamic Resistance - a rival to Hezbollah believed to be linked to
Saudi Arabia. The new group may have fired the rockets to create a pretext for
a new round of war between Hezbollah and Israel. - Sami Moubayed
(Jan 9,'09)
Russian arms to Iran: A mistimed
gambit?
Reports that the Kremlin has agreed to sell Iran powerful surface-to-air
missile systems have sent a strong and possibly miscalculated signal to
Washington. It's a diplomatic dance linked to Moscow's opposition to the US's
ballistic missile defense system, but in the context of the new confrontation
between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, the timing of the sale could prove ill-fated.
- Roger N McDermott (Jan 8,'09)
Surging towards stalemate in
Afghanistan
The United States plan to soon double the number of its troops in Afghanistan
from about 30,000 to 60,000 will entail at least as many problems as
advantages, notably the issues of increased supply lines in Pakistan and an
influx of foreign jihadis. And the surge may set the stage for a form of
conflict whose name will never be officially uttered but which might be coming
- a war of attrition that the US can ill afford. - Brian M Downing
(Jan 7,'09)
SPENGLER
Suicide by Israel
What do you do when a group of people would rather die on their feet than live
on their knees? Hamas was formed to prevent a permanent Jewish presence in its
historic land, and now it has provoked war with Israel. As in any war, economic
pressure and military operations that kill civilians as collateral damage are
legitimate instruments. It is hypocrisy to pretend otherwise.
(Jan 7,'09)
Ground realities in Gaza
One of the most important single aspects of the Israeli ground action in Gaza -
Operation Cast Lead - is the intensely difficult and probably lengthy process
of trying to deny the border areas to the highly mobile and easily hidden Hamas
missile-firing teams. - Richard M Bennett (Jan
7,'09)
A high cost for more feet on the
ground
The surge in Afghanistan is guaranteed to exacerbate the sufferings of Afghan
civilians and unlikely to succeed militarily in comparison to its Iraqi
counterpart. However, should alternative logistical routes to Pakistan open up
to bookend the increase in supplies, the United States could break free from
its dependence on Islamabad. - Sreeram Chaulia
(Jan 7,'09)
Al-Qaeda sniffs opportunity in
Gaza
From Yemen, Somalia and Iraq to Pakistan and Afghanistan, al-Qaeda has
established links with local militants to assist them in their respective
struggles. Now, with the Israeli offensive in Gaza, al-Qaeda sees the
opportunity to activate jihadis in the region, especially those in Egypt. All
that it needs is for Hamas to hold out for a few more weeks. - Syed Saleem
Shahzad (Jan 6,'09)
Bush plan beat obstacle to Gaza
assault
The fact that Hamas won elections for the Palestinian parliament was a serious
political obstacle to a conventional war by Israel against Hamas in Gaza. But
the George W Bush administration helped Israel eliminate that barrier by
deliberately provoking Hamas to seize power in Gaza. - Gareth Porter
(Jan 6,'09)
Tigers take to the jungle
With the fall of their de facto capital, Kilinochchi, the Liberation Tigers of
Tamil Eelam have lost their long-standing image of invincibility and are now
cornered in Sri Lanka's jungles. It's a severe blow to the rebel movement, but
the Tigers are far from finished as a fighting force. The battles ahead can be
expected to be far bloodier than any before. - Sudha Ramachandran
(Jan 6,'08)
Hamas looks to Hezbollah's
inspiration
The similarities between the Israeli attack on Hamas in Gaza and its invasion
of Lebanon in 2006 against Hezbollah are striking. And just as Israel was
unable to destroy Hezbollah, despite a massive military operation, it won't be
that easy to eliminate Hamas, given its grassroots popularity. - Sami Moubayed
(Jan 5,'09)
South Asia gets a makeover
Within the space of a week, three comforting prospects appeared in the midst of
the darkening South Asian security scenario. Taken together, the elections in
Jammu and Kashmir and Bangladesh and the Sri Lankan government's capture of the
rebel stronghold of Kilinochi dealt a severe blow to the growing threats of
terror and religious fundamentalism. - M K Bhadrakumar
(Jan 5,'09)
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ATol Specials
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Syed Saleem Shahzad reports on
the Afghan war from the Taliban side
(Dec '06)
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How
Hezbollah defeated Israel
By
Mark Perry and
Alastair Crooke
(Oct '06)
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Mark Perry and
Alastair Crooke
talk to the 'terrorists'
(Mar, '06)
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The evidence for and against Iran's alleged
nuclear weapons program
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Nir Rosen goes inside the Iraqi
resistance
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Nir Rosen rides with the 3rd
armored cavalry in western Iraq
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Islamism, fascism and
terrorism
by Marc Erikson
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For earlier articles go to:
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