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 War
and Terror
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February 2009
A reality check on Iran and the
'bomb'
Reports continue to swirl that Iran is not far from being capable of producing
its first crude nuclear weapon. However, simply having enough suitably modified
material - if indeed this is true - does not in itself produce a workable
weapon. And even a genuine nuclear capability could in all probability turn out
to be a greater long-term threat to Iran's own survival than to any of its
neighbors - something of which the leaders in Tehran are acutely aware. - Richard
M Bennett (Feb 27,'09)
From 'axis of evil' to 'clenched
fist'
The "axis of evil" of the George W Bush administration that linked Iran, Iraq
and North Korea has been replaced by US President Barack Obama's "clenched
fist" reference to Iran. This term continues to project onto the Iranians a
negative and hostile image and even ranks as pre-war rhetoric. - Kaveh L
Afrasiabi (Feb 27,'09)
China breaks its silence on
Afghanistan
Beijing has spoken out about the Afghanistan "problem" in a state newspaper
commentary that might have made cautious former leader Deng Xiaoping wince at
its audacity. Apparently, the Middle Kingdom has no problem with the United
States reinforcing its presence in what it called the "tomb of empires".
Instead, China will focus on securing its own position and biding its time -
and that's a strategy Deng could surely appreciate. - M K Bhadrakumar
(Feb 24,'09)
THE FIGHT FOR PAKISTAN'S POLITICAL
SOUL
A new face for militants emerges
From battles in the mountains of Afghanistan and Kashmir to struggles in the
country's political furnace, Pakistan's premier Islamic party, the
Jamaat-e-Islami, has remained pro-military. This could all change should a
socialist-turned-Islamist be elected as party president: militants would be
given a powerful voice in the urban centers they now plan to infiltrate. - Syed
Saleem Shahzad (Feb 24,'09)
This is the second article of a two-part report.
 PART 1:
Deal emboldens opposition
IAEA douses furor over Iran report
The Western press jumped all over the latest International Atomic Energy Agency
report that found the nuclear watchdog had underestimated the enriched uranium
at Iran's nuclear facilities by some 30%. Still, the IAEA's timely
clarification gives some hope that the smoldering Iranian nuclear stand-off may
be fading out - rather than raging out of control. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi
(Feb 23,'09)
Obama nixed full surge in
Afghanistan
United States President Barack Obama may have approved only 17,000 of the
30,000 troops requested in Afghanistan by United States commanders, citing
their inability to tell him how they would be used, but don't expect the top
brass to give up that easily. More pressure will follow an Afghanistan-Pakistan
policy review next month, echoing the days of the Vietnam War when president
Lyndon B Johnson faced similar demands. - Gareth Porter
(Feb 23,'09)
Tigers keep Colombo guessing
The cornered Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam again showed their daring last
week in a suicide air raid on government bases in and around Colombo. Now, a
surprise ceasefire offer from the Tigers could support claims that the deadly
strike was a last, desperate act - or the mercurial rebels could be playing for
time. - Sudha Ramachandran (Feb 23,'09)
India grapples with the Obama
era
A pall of gloom has descended on New Delhi's elite and with it has come
pervasive nostalgia for George W Bush. The same Indian upper class that had
worked "shoulder to shoulder" with the Bush administration, now finds itself
awkwardly placed - all dressed up but with nowhere to go. Clearly, India is at
present not nearly as valuable an ally as Pakistan for the United States - and
that truth hurts. - M K Bhadrakumar (Feb
20,'09)
Storm brews between US and Israel
As a hawkish government emerges from Israel's fractious elections, and the
Obama administration's regional priorities diverge from its predecessors, a
confrontation looms between the longtime strategic bedfellows. Washington's
plans to enlist Iranian help for coalition efforts in Afghanistan and Pakistan
- the US's new fronts in the "war on terror" - are likely to strike a
particularly sour note in Jerusalem. - Jim Lobe
(Feb 20,'09)
Russia's 'virtual cold war' in
Central Asia
Moscow is working hard to minimize Western influence in regions it perceives as
its own backyard, re-asserting its security credentials in the South Caucasus
and Central Asia while actively pursuing policies to thwart NATO objectives. At
the same time, Russia is presenting itself as "user friendly" and willing to
cooperate with the West. - Roger McDermott (Feb
20,'09)
THE US MILITARY'S EXPANDING
WAISTLINE
What will Obama do with KBR?
Between a conscripted, spud-peeling military to video gamers dining on pizza
and lobster claws, the difference in US troops shows - around the waistline. A
new study claims that the average American soldier gains 10 pounds during their
tour of Iraq, and they're not the only ones getting fat. Texas-based KBR Inc,
once a subsidiary of Halliburton, has earned $25 billion in food and
construction contracts since 2001. - Pratap Chatterjee
(Feb 20,'09)
Welcome to McArmy!
The vast and decadent dining services available to American soldiers at LSA
Anaconda, the largest US base in Iraq, would astonish any World War II veteran
who subsisted on canned Spam and powdered eggs. And don't forget the
mini-malls, fast-food outlets or military supermarkets where soldiers stock up
on cookies, Sony PlayStations and mountain bikes. - Pratap Chatterjee
(Feb 20,'09) |
Iran's security concerns weigh
heavy
The idea of a "grand bargain" between the United States and Iran over the
latter's nuclear program hinges on Washington offering Tehran a guarantee of no
regime change and respect for its borders. The Iranian leaders, however, have
increasingly pressing concerns over the deteriorating situation in Pakistan and
Afghanistan. This presents a disquieting picture that operates against
maintaining Iran's nuclear potential latent. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi
(Feb 19,'09)
THE ROVING EYE
Obama, Osama and Medvedev
The 1,600-kilometer Karachi-Khyber-Kabul supply line envisioned by the United
States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization is for all practical purposes
dead - thanks to neo-Taliban guerrillas in Pakistan's tribal areas. If
Washington and Moscow can't hash out a new route, the only other realistic
possibility for the coalition is courting Iran, which is already deeply
connected to Russia, and China. - Pepe Escobar
(Feb 19,'09)
Balochis intensify rebellion in
Iran
Violence between Iranian security forces and ethnic Baloch insurgents has
escalated in Iran's southeastern province, with Jundullah (Soldiers of God)
militants unleashing suicide car bombings and executions in response to what
they claim is state-sponsored discrimination against their Sunni Muslim
minority. There are now fears that foreign fighters could be drawn into the
battle, possibly destabilizing Iran and the region. (Feb
19,'09)
India's nuclear submarine plan
surfaces
Along with announcing a dramatic increase in its defense budget, India has
revealed that a secretive project to build three nuclear submarines is nearing
completion. As tensions with Pakistan remain high and China's naval presence
expands, the subs are part of New Delhi's plans to beef up security by
completing nuclear-launch capabilities on land, air and sea. - Siddharth
Srivastava (Feb 19,'09)
The Taliban get their first wish
The guns are silent in the Swat Valley in the Malakand division of Pakistan's
North-West Frontier Province following Monday's peace agreement between the
government and militants. Islamic law will also be implemented. This is a
significant victory for the Pakistan Taliban and their al-Qaeda colleagues
after two years of fighting, and an extremely ominous development for the
United States-led troops just across the border in Afghanistan. - Syed Saleem
Shahzad (Feb 18,'09)
Two wars heat up India's elections
The jungles of Sri Lanka, Southeast Asian sea lanes, Pakistan's frontier tribes
and the US Federal Bureau of Investigation: these are strange issues to be
buzzing around in the run-up to the usually self-absorbed Indian national
elections. This year, however, the globalized recession and the threat of
transnational terrorism have forced opposing parties to focus on events and
people beyond India's borders. - Santwana Bhattacharya
(Feb 18,'09)
US and Russia see common cause
The United States and Russia have taken an unceremonious plunge into a marriage
of convenience. Moscow is warming to US President Barack Obama. But detractors
ranging from hardliners in the US to "New Europeans" and Iranians have reason
to worry. They dread that if Obama pursues his "contextual intelligence"
approach to its logical conclusion, he and the Kremlin leaders might enter into
trade-offs at their expense. - M K Bhadrakumar
(Feb 17,'09)
US estimate muddied Iran's nuclear
intent
Conflicting statements recently issued by the White House and the Pentagon
reflect the confusion left by the 2007 National Intelligence Estimate on Iran's
intentions regarding nuclear weapons. This disconnect can hardly be
overestimated. If Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons, the United States must
choose between coercive diplomacy or accepting Tehran's status as a nuclear
power and seeking to deter it. - Gareth Porter
(Feb 17,'09)
Tigers unleash fury on fleeing
'shields'
As Sri Lankan forces close in on the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam, Tamil
civilians leaving the war zone are bearing the brunt of the separatist group's
last-ditch survival measures. These include being targeted by Black Tiger
suicide bombers - a mainstay in the Tigers' arsenal. Rumors are also swirling
of plans for a mass suicide involving Tiger leaders. - Sudha Ramachandran
(Feb 17,'09)
DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
An American 'foreign legion'
emerges
The United States military is close to being a foreign legion. Foreign as in
being constantly deployed overseas on imperial errands; foreign as in being
ever-more reliant on private military contractors; foreign as in being
increasingly segregated from the elites that profit most from its actions, yet
serve the least in its ranks. And increasingly foreign to Americans. - William
Astore (Feb 17,'09)
The new Fallujah: Up close and
ugly
In a remarkable tour of the heartland of still devastated Sunni Iraq, Dahr
Jamail takes a ride in the front seat of a US$420,000 armored BMW,
riding with a tribal sheik (whom the US Marines label the John Gotti of
Fallujah); note the AK-47 and the shotgun in back, and the vehicles from the
sheik's security teams that sandwich your car; then, take a slug of whisky, and
don't miss that wad of crisp American $100 bills he's carrying with him.
(Feb 13,'09)
Israeli election muddies Obama's
waters
United States President Barack Obama's Middle East project took two impressive
steps forward this week, with positive moves towards Iran and Syria. But the
results of the parliamentary election in Israel - whoever gets to form a
government - make any significant thawing of relations in the near term between
Washington and Tehran and Damascus highly problematic. - M K Bhadrakumar
(Feb 13,'09)
Taliban send a bloody warning
The United States and Britain are working overtime, with help from Russia, in
preparation for what they believe will be the biggest-ever offensive against
militants in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Wednesday's brazen multiple terror
strikes in the Afghan capital of Kabul underscore the urgency of the task,
while also sending a clear message that the Taliban and al-Qaeda now have the
capability to strike anywhere in the region, at any time. - Syed Saleem Shahzad
(Feb 12,'09)
US-IRAN WALL OF MISTRUST, Part 2
Will Obama say 'we're sorry'?
Former ruler the shah and revolutionary leader ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini have
been described as the two juxtaposed Irans: imperial Iran and the painful Iran
of the blood of the martyr, "a juxtaposition that symbolizes an unreal dream
... a dementia of the inaccessible". For US President Barack Obama, the
"inaccessible" can become more than accessible with just a simple "we're
sorry". - Pepe Escobar (Feb 12,'09)
This is the second article of a two-part report.
PART 1:
Obama's Persian double
China's defense: The view from Taiwan
China's latest defense assessment claims Taiwan's attempts to seek "de jure
independence" have been thwarted, and that Beijing's threat perception in the
Taiwan Strait has been greatly reduced. Reading between the lines, it appears
China hopes to gradually erode United States influence over Taiwan by offering
it security promises, leading to an eventual reunification. - Cheng-yi Lin
(Feb 12,'09)
COMMENT
Iran's fight against hegemony turns
30
It has been 30 years since Iran's revolution ended years of humiliation forced
on the nation by US meddling, but Iran's fight against Israel's expansionism
and the American domination of Persian Gulf affairs continues: the next Middle
East war may have already been hatched in Gaza. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi
(Feb 11,'09)
US still has its Kyrgyzstan base
covered
It's easy to believe that the reason for Kyrgyzstan wanting to shut down the
United States Manas military base near the capital is Russia's US$300 million
sweetener to Bishkek. But other factors are in play, and it could be some time
before - if ever - the 1,000 US personnel pack up and leave. - Anara Yusupova
(Feb 11,'09)
It's official: India is not ready
for war
India's defense minister says red tape, not budget deficits, is holding back
the military's modernization. The revelation is telling, given the army's
apparent inability to take part in retaliatory strikes in Pakistan after last
November's Mumbai terrorist attack. Still, an emerging post-Mumbai consensus at
the top could open the floodgates for all kinds of defense spending. - Siddharth
Srivastava (Feb 10,'09)
US sugarcoats its tough line on
Iran
On the surface, the major foreign policy speech delivered by United States Vice
President Joseph Biden at the weekend's security conference in Germany appeared
conciliatory towards Iran. But Biden avoided any positive appreciation of
Iran's stabilizing role in the region, and he trotted out the long-standing
negative image of Iran as basically an adversary. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi
(Feb 10,'09)
Petraeus 'leaked' Iraq pullout
plans
An apparent leak by US Central Command chief General David Petraeus about US
combat troop withdrawal plans for Iraq indicates that the most powerful figure
in the American military may be trying to shape media coverage of President
Barack Obama to advance his own policy agenda - and, very possibly, his
personal political interests as well. So far, Obama is treading warily with
Petraeus. - Gareth Porter (Feb 10,'09)
Everyone wants a piece of the Afghan
war
Members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization will be allowed to negotiate
with Tehran on an individual basis to have their supplies for Afghanistan
transported via Iran. This dramatically increases Iran's influence in this
region. At the same time, China is entertaining members of Pakistan's main
Islamist political party in a bid to strengthen its relations with key players.
And in Islamabad, leaders are imposing their own terms and conditions to fight
the American war in Afghanistan. - Syed Saleem Shahzad
(Feb 9,'09)
Debt as a unifying power in Iraq
Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's bold move - forcefully asking the United
Nations to wipe out Iraq's post-Kuwait invasion penalties - could be his
smartest play yet, sending his popularity skyrocketing on the heels of a huge
victory in nation-wide provincial elections. But it didn't take long before
domestic problems crashed the party. - Sami Moubayed
(Feb 9,'09)
Iran and the US: United over
Afghanistan?
This weekend's Munich Security Conference, which brings together a dozen world
leaders and top diplomats and defense officials, has a lot on its plate,
particularly the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan. Destabilizing problems
in Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are a major concern, but a potential grand bargain
between the United States and Iran is the main talking point. - Syed Saleem
Shahzad (Feb 6,'09)
Whistling past the Afghan graveyard
In Afghanistan and Pakistan, the question is no longer whether the United
States is in command, but whether it can get out in time. If not, don't expect
the other pressed powers of the planet to help out. The Europeans are already
itching to get out of town. The Russians, the Chinese, the Iranians, the
Indians ... who exactly will ride to the rescue? Perhaps it would be prudent to
stop hanging out in graveyards. - Tom Engelhardt
(Feb 6,'09)
The political rebirth of Nuri
al-Maliki
Better security, promises of reconstruction, jobs and better pay, topped with a
new working relationship with US President Barack Obama, might explain why
Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki stunned his critics and emerged victorious in
Iraq's provincial elections. Maliki's secular campaign paid off, and his gains
come at the expense of former ally Muqtada al-Sadr and other religiously driven
politicians. - Sami Moubayed (Feb 6,'09)
Sri Lanka's end game brings new woes
The Sri Lankan government may be confident the Tamil Tigers will be defeated in
a few days, but the military offensive against the rebels has opened a whole
new powder keg of problems. In the little remaining territory held by the
Tigers, civilians are trapped between the devil and the deep blue sea. - Sudha
Ramachandran (Feb 6,'09)
Moscow, Tehran force US's hand
The blowing up of a bridge in the Khyber in Pakistan, the usage of an air base
in the foothills of the Pamirs in Central Asia and the launch of a 37 kilogram
satellite into the night sky over Iran have triggered the political and
diplomatic equivalent of chess' zugzwang. In this case, the United
States will be forced to make a move it would rather not. - M K Bhadrakumar
(Feb 5,'09)
Hawks gunning for more military
money
Despite the maelstrom facing the United States economy, neo-conservatives have
launched a dirty tricks campaign to get President Barack Obama to allocate tens
of billions of dollars from the nearly US$1 trillion economic stimulus package
to the already vast defense budget. Major military contractors have jumped onto
the neo-con bandwagon. - Jim Lobe (Feb 5,'09)
US dilemma as Iran's nuclear
file reopens
A fresh round of talks this week involving the six nations dealing with Iran's
nuclear program is a plosive step, even though there is dissension, notably in
Germany, over the best way to deal with Tehran. This multilateral approach,
however, at the same time has the potential to derail the growing impetus for
direct dialogue between Iran and the United States, an initiative that offers
the best hope of resolving this long-standing crisis. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi
(Feb 4,'09)
Now, where were we in Afghanistan?
Seven years after United States-backed forces chased out the Taliban,
Washington's precise aims in Afghanistan are still anyone's guess. In the face
of what most analysts and officials concede is a deteriorating situation, the
Pentagon is actively downgrading the original hopes of ushering in a thriving
democracy, while also undertaking a comprehensive review of strategy. - Jim Lobe
(Feb 4,'09)
Turkish snub changes Middle
East game
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's snub of Israeli President Shimon
Peres during a television show has caught the imagination of the Islamic world,
from Gaza to Turkey to Iran. In the longer term, pro-West Arab rulers,
especially in Saudi Arabia and Egypt, along with Israel, will need to seriously
factor that Turkey's shadows are deepening on the Middle Eastern landscape:
Neo-Ottomanism sees Turkey as a regional superpower. - M K Bhadrakumar
(Feb 3,'09)
Obama not bowing to top brass, yet
United States military leaders have tried unsuccessfully to convince President
Barack Obama to back down from his campaign pledge to withdraw all US combat
troops from Iraq within 18 months, forgetting they're no longer dealing with
George W Bush. But the senior officers aren't giving up that easily; their next
plan is to mobilize public support against the president. - Gareth Porter
(Feb 3,'09)
India looks to pick up Sri Lankan
pieces
As the Sri Lankan military's offensive on the remnants of rebel Tamil Tiger
territory approaches the end game, India is preparing to play a major role. The
political settlement Delhi seeks is not only for the hundreds of thousands of
civilians caught in the crossfire, but also expedient at a time pro-Tamil
tensions in its Tamil Nadu state threaten to bring turmoil and separatism to
its territory. - Sudha Ramachandran (Feb
3,'09)
DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
Crisis looms at the Pentagon
Given the economic crisis in the United States, the estimated trillion dollars
the country spends each year on the military and its weaponry is unsustainable.
Even if present fiscal constraints no longer existed, the US would still have
misspent too much of tax revenues on too few, overly expensive, overly complex
weapons systems that leave the country ill-prepared to defend itself in a real
military emergency. The F-22 Raptor and the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter are cases
in point. - Chalmers Johnson (Feb 3,'09)
Ahmadinejad rides the American tide
Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad has thrown his hat into the ring for
another term, and if he manages to distract attention from his four years of
unfilled promises by continuing with his “death to America” rhetoric he just
might win again. Meanwhile, opponents of the hardliner are furious that
reformist Mohammad Khatami has not yet presented his nomination for the June
elections. - Sami Moubayed (Feb 2,'09)
Taliban ideology echoes across
the valley
From being Pakistan's premier tourist destination, the Swat Valley is
essentially off-limits as the Taliban forge ahead in their quest to implement
sharia law. Taliban leader and spokesman Haji Muslim Khan traces the roots of
this struggle to the 
system of government the country inherited from the British, and laments how
his countrymen have become "slaves". Khan gives his side of the story over
alleged Taliban misdeeds and in sourcing weapons, and reserves his strongest
vitriol for "traitorous" Pashtuns. He speaks to Syed Saleem Shahzad.
(Feb 2,'09)
This is the final article in a four-part series.
Part 1:
A battle before a
battle
Part 2:
Faceless Taliban rule
Part 3:
Swat Valley: Whose
war is this?
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ATol Specials
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Syed Saleem Shahzad reports on
the Afghan war from the Taliban side
(Dec '06)
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How
Hezbollah defeated Israel
By
Mark Perry and
Alastair Crooke
(Oct '06)
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Mark Perry and
Alastair Crooke
talk to the 'terrorists'
(Mar, '06)
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The evidence for and against Iran's alleged
nuclear weapons program
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Nir Rosen goes inside the Iraqi
resistance
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Nir Rosen rides with the 3rd
armored cavalry in western Iraq
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Islamism, fascism and
terrorism
by Marc Erikson
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For earlier articles go to:
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