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 War
and Terror
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March 2009
Pakistan braces for more attacks
The authorities in Pakistan are still trying to piece together the details of
the deadly attack on a police college in Lahore on Monday, although Pakistan
Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud has claimed responsibility. Having once
nurtured the militants who now act as Mehsud's footsoldiers, military
headquarters know only too well who they are dealing with, and fear more
attacks soon. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Mar
31,'09)
Israel muddies US-Iran momentum
The fresh start in relations promised to Iran by US President Barack Obama got
off to a strong start last week when a US diplomat shook hands with an Iranian
counterpart in Moscow. The stage is now set for Secretary of State Hillary
Clinton's first potential detente with Iranian officials at this week's
UN-backed conference on Afghanistan. It's a fragile hope, and sabre-rattling
from Israel could torpedo the progress. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi
(Mar 31,'09)
Afghan surge takes a fruitful twist
Upending the George W Bush administration's failed strategy of killing one
terrorist at a time in the hope they would all eventually disappear, US
President Barack Obama is calling for an unlikely army of idealistic American
"experts" to tackle the Taliban and al-Qaeda. Their weapons? Anything from
eggplants to grapes to beehives. - Philip Smucker
(Mar 31,'09)
Militants give bloody show of
strength
Heavily armed militants on Monday stormed a police training school in the
eastern Pakistani city of Lahore, killing at least 30 people. The audacious
raid follows directly on US President Barack Obama's warning that Pakistan is
the new theater in the Afghan war. The incident highlights that an emerging
nexus of militants will make it extremely difficult for Islamabad to give
Washington the cooperation it wants in taming al-Qaeda and the Taliban. - Syed
Saleem Shahzad (Mar 30,'09)
The great Afghan bailout
For the conflict in Afghanistan and Pakistan, the term "surge" - and the Iraq
analogy that goes with it - is no longer appropriate. Instead, think bailout.
Think AIG. United States President Barack Obama's newly unveiled strategy
should really be re-imagined as another massive attempted bailout, this time of
an Afghan project that is now almost 40 years old. - Tom Engelhardt
(Mar 30,'09)
THE ROVING EYE
Obama's Afghan Spaghetti Western
To sum up the acronym-infested mess in western Afghanistan, the whole picture
looks like Sergio Leone's The Good, the Bad and the Ugly. The area's
most important military base is Italian, where 3,000 men are charged with
controlling a Mafia-run territory with Taliban Godfathers aplenty. The Italians
are encircled, and even a "pizza surge" from Rome might not save them. - Pepe
Escobar (Mar 27,'09)
Ghosts of US’s unilateralist past
rise
Drawing comparisons to the faded Project for the New American Century, a newly
formed neo-conservative foreign policy organization offers a flashback to the
1990s, when its predecessor staked out the aggressive foreign policy of the
George W Bush years. For its formal coming out, it has chosen to push for a US
military surge in Afghanistan. - Jim Lobe and Daniel Luban
(Mar 27,'09)
Iraq serves Turkey a rare treat
In the first visit by a Turkish president to Iraq in 33 years, Abdullah Gul was
made an unexpected offer by his hosts: Iraqi Kurdistan-based rebels would lay
down their arms - thereby ending a state of war with Turkey that has lasted for
30 years - in exchange for a pardon for all Kurds who have fought the Ankara
government. The Iraqis might not be able to deliver on their promise, but the
clear message is that they - and their US backers - can no longer ignore
Turkey's importance in the region. - Sami Moubayed
(Mar 26,'09)
When a withdrawal is not a
withdrawal
United States President Barack Obama's decision to go along with the military
proposal for a "transition force" of 35,000 to 50,000 troops in Iraq represents
a complete abandonment of his own original policy of combat troop withdrawal
and an acceptance of what the military wanted all along - the continued
presence of several combat brigades well beyond mid-2010. - Gareth Porter
(Mar 26,'09)
'Killing season' opens in the Afghan
hills
Gaining local 
knowledge is the only chance of survival for United States troops fighting a
guerilla war in rural Afghanistan that is "new in its intensity, ancient in its
origin", reports Philip Smucker, embedded with the motley 10th Mountain
Division near the Pakistan border. But it is local knowledge that the US is
sorely lacking in this war against subversives, insurgents and assassins.
(Mar 26,'09)
Europe out of step with US over
Iran
United States President Barack Obama has offered a "new beginning" in relations
with Iran through honest engagement and mutual respect. Such overtures are at
odds with the European Union's incoherent Tehran strategy, highlighted by
British Prime Minister Gordon Brown's recent threat-filled speech. - Kaveh L
Afrasiabi (Mar 25,'09)
India begins uphill journey with the
SCO
Delhi has begun the complex process of balancing the Central Asia strategies of
new United States President Barack Obama and the Shanghai Cooperation
Organization. In addition, India must grapple with growing international
opinion that a regional solution to the Afghan problem must include a
settlement of India-Pakistan differences, including Kashmir. - M K Bhadrakumar
(Mar 24,'09)
COMMENT
Why the US can't bully Iran
After 30 years of hostility, a massive wall of mistrust separates the
governments of Iran and the United States. The obstacle will remain as long as
Washington persists in speaking to Iran in a condescending manner and continues
to wave threats of sanctions. Strong talk will only plant seeds of resistance,
while sanctions, Iranians believe, will never threaten the nation's existence.
- Shahir Shahidsaless (Mar 24,'09)
Pakistan's peace deals offer US
a pointer
United States President Barack Obama is now talking openly of an exit strategy
for foreign troops from Afghanistan, even as his best and brightest military
brains wrestle with a new strategy for the troubled region. The US's often
unwilling partner, Pakistan, could provide a valuable lesson with the peace
deals it has negotiated with militants in its tribal areas. - Syed Saleem
Shahzad (Mar 23,'09)
Petraeus hands over a 'political hot
potato'
United States Central Command chief General David Petraeus has quietly shifted
the "tactical control" of US special operations forces in Afghanistan to his
subordinate, General David McKiernan. Petraeus apparently prefers to have
McKiernan bear the responsibility for raids and airstrikes that are likely to
generate even greater Afghan and international outrage over the continued
killing of civilians. - Gareth Porter (Mar
23,'09)
Dangerous deadlines in North Korea
Negotiators are furiously working to free a pair of American
journalists from North Korean custody while still worrying about North Korea's
plan to launch a missile-cum-satellite some time between April 4 and April 8.
For Pyongyang, the episode may prove the perfect way to grab the attention of a
world grown weary of saber-rattling rhetoric. - Donald Kirk
(Mar 20,'09)
Arab League reaches out to Iraq
In his first visit to Iraq since 2005, Arab League secretary general Amr Mousa
pushed hard for reconciliation and urged the league's 22 member states to
revive diplomatic relations with the war-torn country. Mousa even announced
that next year's summit will be held in Baghdad, leaving ordinary Iraqis to
wonder what Arab leaders will see if they arrive in the devastated capital one
year from now. - Sami Moubayed (Mar 20,'09)
US spills its Afghan war into
Pakistan
Expanding a covert war into Pakistani territory, as proposed in Washington's
new Afghan war plan, will derail any potential political dialogue and rightly
inflame the Pakistani public. There is now a growing regional perception that
President Barack Obama's administration lacks any clear-headed strategy in the
war. Political chaos in Kabul and Islamabad is only making matters worse. - M K
Bhadrakumar (Mar 19,'09)
THE ROVING EYE
Burn, Balochistan, burn
Somebody needs to tell United States President Barack Obama that a strong
government in Kabul capable of overseeing its provinces and porous borders is a
pipe dream, and that Western allies have no interest in participating in the
US's new front in the Pakistani province of Balochistan. The best solution for
Afghanistan remains China's: a UN peacekeeping force, largely composed of
Muslim soldiers. - Pepe Escobar (Mar 19,'09)
THE ROVING EYE
Another round of Ahmadineboom
With the reformist bloc split ahead of Iran's presidential elections on June
12, the road to victory now seems clear for incumbent Mahmud Ahmadinejad, who
has just launched a charm offensive to calm the hardcore ayatollahs in Qom and
upstage his only likely rival. The word in Tehran is that an Ahmadinejad second
term would solidify all of Iran's fundamentalist factions. Hawks in Israel are
already polishing their bombs. - Pepe Escobar
(Mar 18,'09)
INTERVIEW
The Americans need to apologize
Improved relations with 
Washington are not completely off the cards, but Iran has yet to receive any
so-called olive branch, let alone an apology, member of parliament Dr Kazem
Jalali tells Omid Memarian. A difficulty, he says, is that Iran's Arab
neighbors would prefer to see Tehran in continual conflict with the West.
(Mar 18,'09)
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High five: Messages from North Korea
North Korea's April launch is a communications satellite, a spectacular
"firework" that will celebrate the re-election of Dear Leader Kim Jong-il and
herald Pyongyang's ascension to the world's elite of nuclear and space powers,
writes "unofficial" spokesman for the North Kim Myong Chol. The launch
also carries other equally important messages, such as the country being Asia's
next tiger economy. (Mar 18,'09)
Unlikely bedfellows in
Afghanistan
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization, of which Russia and China are key
members and Iran is an observer, and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization are
both to hold conferences on the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan. These
high-profile events set the stage for a breakthrough over SCO-NATO cooperation,
beginning with the low-security issues of drug trafficking and arms smuggling.
- Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Mar 17,'09)
Harsh reality and some tough love
Whereas in 2001 American military commanders in Afghanistan were bursting with
confidence about thwarting "the enemy", today's US commanders, many with years
of hard-fought experience, are far more cautious in their approach to
counter-insurgency. The inhibiting factors, they tell Philip Smucker,
are everywhere. (Mar 17,'09)
Chinks exposed in Obama's Taliban
plan
Washington's new plan of wooing "reconcilable" insurgents away from their
"hard-core" comrades in Afghanistan may make an indefinite continuation of the
United States' military effort more palatable to key officials - including
President Barack Obama - who know that the war cannot be won with force.
Experts, meanwhile, are saying it just won't work. - Gareth Porter
(Mar 17,'09)
Is the Israel lobby running scared?
Charles Freeman's withdrawal of his nomination as chairman of the United
States' National Intelligence Council has deep repercussions for the Barack
Obama administration's policy in the Middle East - and it may not be the
triumph it first seemed for the Israel lobby and assorted right-wingers and
neo-conservatives. - Robert Dreyfuss (Mar
16,'09)
India tackles non-state actors
With traditional warfare almost a thing of the past, India's battles with far
less tangible enemies, from the Taliban to Pakistani militants, have escalated
and require a radical new approach. In response, the army has taken the
unprecedented step of forming a committee to address the issue, which may lead
to a major overhaul of military operations. - Neeta Lal
(Mar 16,'09)
On patrol in the Afghan mountains
 Elite
United States mountain troops are teaming up with Afghan allies to slice into
insurgent supply lines, some of them mere goat paths through the alpine terrain
of one of the world's most dangerous frontlines. The US fighters are amused by
their hashish-smoking counterparts, but the mission is no joke, they tell Philip
Smucker. Should the routes remain open, even the best of Western
coalition "nation-building" efforts are likely to collapse.
(Mar 13,'09)
A surge towards disaster
The addition of 17,000 United States forces combined with soldiers pledged by
US allies will raise the foreign troop presence in Afghanistan to 90,000 by
2010. Critics say that the "surge" will only send the country toward
"unmitigated disaster", the brunt of which will be borne by Afghan civilians.
Meanwhile, any talk of an exit strategy has fallen off the table. - Anthony
Fenton (Mar 13,'09)
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Pentagon tempted by North Korean launch
As North Korea prepares to launch its satellite-bearing missile in early April,
military hawks in the United States are chomping at the bit to show off their
counter-missile capabilities in the form of heat-seeking Tomahawks. But a US
misfire would be incredibly embarrassing, never mind the consequences of
inflaming regional tensions. - Donald Kirk (Mar
13,'09)
Pakistan adds to US's Afghan
woes
An opposition bloc centered around lawyers is literally on the march in
Pakistan against the government of President Asif Ali Zardari, who is becoming
increasingly isolated. At the same time, the Taliban-led insurgency in
Afghanistan is prepared - as the United States freely admits - for its
biggest-ever yearly push. Washington, which needs a stable Pakistan if it is
going to make progress in Afghanistan, is being forced into action. - Syed
Saleem Shahzad (Mar 12,'09)
THE ROVING EYE
Taliban set to burn the Reichstag?
The united Pakistani Taliban are helping to prepare a massive spring offensive
directed by Mullah Omar against the surging United States-led coalition in
Afghanistan. Meanwhile, cynics in Brussels bet that some weaponized arm of
Western arrogance doesn't stand a chance against built-for-war mujahideen who
have defeated everyone from Alexander the Great onwards. - Pepe Escobar
(Mar 12,'09)
Iran ready to aid Afghanistan
Tehran flexed its regional muscles at this week's summit of the Economic
Cooperation Organization, explicitly expressing a willingness to assist in
stabilizing war-torn Afghanistan. Yet if a power-sharing scheme can't be worked
out between Kabul and the Taliban before Afghanistan's elections scheduled for
August, Iran's largesse may arrive too late. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi
(Mar 12,'09)
Russia has 'Chechnya' ploy for
Afghanistan
Russia is already looking ahead to the time when the United States pulls out of
Afghanistan, leaving behind an Islamic force that could spread all the way
across Central Asia. Moscow's attempts to create a multinational force to meet
this contingency are going nowhere. Another plan, drawn from the template used
in Chechnya, would see Russia extend its hand deep into northern Afghanistan. - Dmitry
Shlapentokh (Mar 11,'09)
Iran wants chess, not America's
football
While encouraging Iran to hold discussions with the United States, Turkey is
not going so far as to declare itself a mediator between Washington and Tehran.
Although US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has asked Turkey to get
involved, Iran's "chess game" mentality and regional aspirations may keep
Ankara from asking Tehran to come to the table. (Mar
11,'09)
India-Pakistan trade takes a
terrorist hit
Any chance of cross-border trade helping to ease India and Pakistan's bitter
rivalry appears near fatally damaged by the terror attacks in Mumbai and
Lahore. The greatest penalty is falling on Pakistan. - Raja Murthy
(Mar 11,'09)
Trade-off season on Afghanistan
begins
Given the interlocking cross-currents swirling around the US-Iran-Russia
equation, it seems that a dizzying number of trade-offs are to be floated. One
possibility is Russia returning to Afghanistan as a key partner of the United
States in exchange for stalling the deployment of the US missile defense
system. Meanwhile, Moscow maintains its excellent relations with Tehran by
proceeding with Iran's Bushehr nuclear power plant. - M K Bhadrakumar
(Mar 10,'09)
A futile search for 'moderate'
Taliban
It's all very well for the United States to say that it wants to identify
moderate elements in the Taliban and engage them. But there is no such thing as
"another" Taliban - there are only sub-militias that are not called the
Taliban. The real moderates will come from the younger population out of the
schools - later, much later. - Walid Phares (Mar
10,'09)
Iran's anti-Israel rhetoric targets
Arabs
Athough Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad insists on rankling Israel, Tehran
has no plans to take action against its long-time enemy. It is merely a ploy to
gain Arab support in the region, as well as a way for Ahmadinejad to reduce the
political risk of any negotiations with the "Great Satan" - the United States.
- Gareth Porter (Mar 10,'09)
US, Iran seek to stop Afghan
narco-traffic
Iran has reacted cautiously to United States Secretary of State Hillary
Clinton's suggestion that it attend a "big tent" conference on Afghanistan. As
a starting point, a focus on Afghanistan's illicit opium trade is a matter of
urgency as a successful anti-narcotics campaign would deprive the Taliban of
millions of dollars. Iran, which is directly affected by the flood of drugs
from its neighbor, would also benefit hugely. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi
(Mar 9,'09)
Winds of change swirl in
Pakistan
Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari has backed down over two controversial
moves that were widely seen as an attempt to curtail his political opponents.
This can be attributed to a more assertive army chief - fresh from a visit to
the United States - and an emboldened prime minister. Zardari still has room to
move, but the patience of military headquarters and Washington is wearing thin.
- Syed Saleem Shahzad (Mar 6,'09)
North Korea fills the air with threats
Pyongyang has been "distinctly unhelpful" lately, according to Washington, and
a new threat to fire on South Korean civilian passenger flights in its airspace
may land North Korea back on the US's terror list. The North's audacious
warning, and its preparations to launch a missile into orbit, have shifted
focus from "six-party talks" to what North Korea will dream up next to create
fear and consternation. - Donald Kirk (Mar
6,'09)
Bush's living legacy at Bagram
prison
The US's infamous Afghanistan prison is often referred to as the "other
Guantanamo", but it should be the other way around, given that many of Gitmo's
prisoners were originally held under even more horrific conditions at Bagram.
But though the Oval Office has changed hands, the game of hide-and-seek
continues. - Karen J Greenberg (Mar 6,'09)
Obama's spy ruffles hawks' feathers
Israeli lobbyists have launched a massive campaign against the appointment of a
vocal critic of Israel to a key US intelligence post, pointing to Charles
Freeman's ties to Saudi Arabia and views on human rights in China. His
defenders, however, say the hawks simply can't stomach anyone who might
question the wisdom of unconditional support for Israel. - Jim Lobe and Daniel
Luban (Mar 5,'09)
Pakistan's militants ready for
more
The attack on the convoy carrying Sri Lankan cricketers in Lahore on Tuesday
was carried out by Punjabi militants who had planned to take the sportsmen
hostage in a bid to extract concessions from the government. Although they were
thwarted this time, more such incidents can be expected, even as the Pakistan
military prepares to dust off its iron fist. - Syed Saleem Shahzad
(Mar 4,'09)
'Cricket' attack marks a shift
in Pakistan
Tuesday's brazen assault by 12 heavily armed men on a convoy carrying Sri
Lankan cricketers in Lahore, Pakistan's second-largest city, has strong
similarities to the terror attack in Mumbai in India last November. For reasons
that could be linked to the recent peace deals signed in Pakistan's tribal
areas, militants are now taking the battle into their country's major urban
centers. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Mar 3,'09)
Power play behind Bangladesh's
mutiny
The failed uprising by the Bangladesh Rifles that left over 140 dead did not
stem simply from concerns over salaries and command structures. There is every
possibility that the Dhaka mutiny was backed by pro-Islam army officers whose
grand religious and geopolitical causes are far more profound than simple money
matters. - Sreeram Chaulia (Mar 2,'09)
A withdrawal of sorts from Iraq
United States military leaders have compromised by accepting a 19-month
draw-down plan for US troops in Iraq. But in return, President Barack Obama has
given commanders a free hand to determine the size and composition of a
residual force of up to 50,000 troops, apparently including the option of
leaving behind one or more combat brigades. - Gareth Porter
(Mar 2,'09)
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ATol Specials
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Syed Saleem Shahzad reports on
the Afghan war from the Taliban side
(Dec '06)
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How
Hezbollah defeated Israel
By
Mark Perry and
Alastair Crooke
(Oct '06)
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Mark Perry and
Alastair Crooke
talk to the 'terrorists'
(Mar, '06)
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The evidence for and against Iran's alleged
nuclear weapons program
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Nir Rosen goes inside the Iraqi
resistance
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Nir Rosen rides with the 3rd
armored cavalry in western Iraq
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Islamism, fascism and
terrorism
by Marc Erikson
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For earlier articles go to:
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