By July-August 2001, it was clear that something dramatic was about to happen. Pepe Escobar, our "Roving Eye", was
traveling in Afghanistan and the tribal areas of Pakistan. The rumor was that US forces were about to use Pakistan to launch a raid into Afghanistan. Escobar's article, published by Asia Times Online on August 30, 2001, was headlined  Get Osama! Now! Or else ... Our Karachi correspondent, Syed Saleem Shazad, was meanwhile filing articles like Osama bin Laden: The thorn in Pakistan's flesh (August 22, 2001) ...

THE ROVING EYE
Jordan opens up Iraq's western front
Jordan is being pulled in opposite directions. On the one hand it relies heavily on Baghdad for vital oil supplies and trade. On the other hand it will need massive US largesse to recoup war losses. A huge and "unofficial" buildup of US tanks and troops in eastern Jordan, then, provides a strong clue as to how the Jordanians are handling the dilemma. - Pepe Escobar (Mar 21, '03)

Iraqi exiles in Jordan: Hopes and fears
In a small hotel in Amman, Iraqis gathered to watch the war in their homeland unfold on al-Jazeera and CNN, anxiously awaiting news from loved ones. Paul Belden watched and waited with them. (Mar 21, '03)

ANALYSIS
So far, so odd
Talk about a low-key start to a war: certainly no "shock and awe", more like "aw-shucks". So, what's going on? The clues, writes Marc Erikson, add up to a high-profile combined psy-war/diplomatic offensive, while "shock and awe" are temporarily held in check. (Mar 21, '03)

FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF THE WAR ATol keeps you abreast of events in Iraq in graphic detail. Click here for our interactive map and summaries.

Splits emerge over post-Saddam plan
The neo-conservatives in the US administration favor a full-scale invasion and occupation of Iraq that will destroy the Ba'ath Party once and for all and allow other hostile "dominoes" in the region to be knocked over. Taking out Saddam Hussein with the first salvo of the war could have spoiled those plans. Luckily, the cruise missiles seem to have missed him. - Jim Lobe (Mar 21, '03)

COMMENTARY
The battle for the Arab mind
The United States, having failed in earlier attempts to muzzle the Qatar-based al-Jazeera television network, has adopted a "softly-softly" approach in which damage control rather than confrontation is the order of the day. - Ehsan Ahrari (Mar 21, '03)

Beijing nurtures its regional influence
China is now beginning to feel comfortable speaking on behalf of East Asia, especially when opposing the US-led invasion of Iraq. Phar Kim Beng argues that Beijing's increasingly audible moral arguments are aimed at keeping Southeast Asia thinking of China as a dove and the US as a hawk, thus keeping Washington out of China's sphere of influence. (Mar 21, '03)

China goes down with UN defeat
By going to war without the blessing of the United Nations, the United States has severely diluted the power of the UN, power on which China - with its permanent Security Council seat and veto power - had relied on to restrain the US. Too late, it has become apparent that this reliance on a 50-year-old institution, while real power has shifted to the G7, has left China out in the cold. - Francesco Sisci (Mar 20, '03)

A new war beyond the war
The war in Iraq is a non-contest in the sense that the US has the undisputed military muscle to get its way. The war that comes next, though, will be harder to win, as Afghanistan is already proving. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Mar 20, '03)

D Day and after
In the immediate and short terms following the start of the war, there is a strong possibility of anti-US demonstrations and terrorist attacks in a number of regions, with Afghanistan, Pakistan and Egypt of particular concern. - B Raman (Mar 20, '03) 

Costs of war by far outweigh benefits
America may enjoy a quick victory in Iraq, but it will still be a major loss for the future of American foreign policy. President George W Bush's decision to abandon international organizations and valuable alliances has thrown both American influence and global security into the rubbish bin. - Jim Lobe (Mar 20, '03)

Vulnerability fears and the hubris of victory
The United States' world leadership role is entirely uncontested in the realms of military prowess and economic strength. If the hubris stemming from "liberating" Iraq becomes a driving force of US foreign policy, then there is no stopping for the lone superpower. - Ehsan Ahrari (Mar 20, '03)

Terrorism and proliferation: The new threats
The nexus between terrorism and weapons of mass destruction is not new, but the increasingly rapid development and diffusion of technology have created a world in which anyone can threaten or attack anything from anywhere. Hence, it is crucial to sever the ties between terrorist organizations and proliferating states. - Stephen Blank (Mar 20, '03)

Another Gulf War, another al-Qaeda
In a fulfillment of the law of unintended consequences, the second Gulf War may well spawn a second generation of terrorists even more determined than al-Qaeda to evict US forces from the Middle East, thus defeating the very purposes for which it is about to be fought. - Ahmad Faruqui (Mar 19, '03)

THE ROVING EYE
This war is brought to you by ...
The war on Iraq is about global preeminence for the United States, if not world domination - military, economic, political and cultural. This is the agenda that the influential Washington neoconservatives have pushed for some years, with September 11 providing the trigger that they needed to justify their attack on Afghanistan, and then Iraq. Other countries will follow, consequences be damned. - Pepe Escobar (Mar 19, '03)

Koizumi: US ties beat out public opinion
More fearful of an angry Bush administration than an angry Japanese public, President Junichiro Koizumi has officially supported the US-led invasion and occupation of Iraq - but sorry, no logistical support. Oh, and don't ask Japan to help foot the bill this time, he has told the US. Axel Berkofsky doubts Washington will listen. (Mar 19, '03)

Israel at the ready
Having taken some hits from Saddam Hussein last time around in 1991, and not responding, Israel is better prepared now for the war in Iraq. Some might even say too prepared. (Mar 19, '03)

COMMENT
Now we're all ugly Americans
As an expatriate, Gary LaMoshi often felt compelled to defend America's core values. But Washjington's decision to attack Iraq undermines those values of democracy, responsibility and working for a peaceful and just world. (Mar 19, '03)

Lessons from Libya
Seventeen years ago the United States bombed Libya in retaliation for a series of terror attacks linked to that country and its leader, Muammar Gaddafi. The attack failed miserably in achieving any of Washington's goals. Now, for Libya and Gaddafi, read Iraq and Saddam. (Mar 19, '03)

Indonesia braces for economic battle
Baghdad won't be the only casualty when the United States launches its war on Iraq. In predominantly Muslim Indonesia, business is already dreading the fallout: possible political upheaval, rising anti-Americanism, and boycotts of and pullouts by badly needed foreign investors. - Tony Sitathan (Mar 19, '03)

French fear US 'payback'
They aren't getting on very well in the diplomatic arena, but the fact remains that the US is France's biggest commercial partner. Now French businesses fear that they will be the ones to feel the sting of US anger over everything French. (Mar 19, '03)

OPEC prevails in the short term
The oil market has been calmed by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' latest reassurances, but in the aftermath of war in Iraq, neighboring countries could be dragged into crises, conflicts and instability with long-term effects on their oil exports, and consequently on the global price of oil. - Hooman Peimani (Mar 19, '03)

US to win a Pyrrhic victory
The question is not whether the US will win the war in Iraq, but how soon. Victory, though, will not contribute to enhanced peace and security for the US, Israel or the rest of the international community as long as the aspirations of the region's people are ignored. - B Raman (Mar 18, '03)

COMMENTARY
Contradictory visions of American power
There is little doubt that many Americans have been persuaded into viewing the invasion of Iraq as a necessary aspect of ridding the world of the scourge of global terrorism. There is also little doubt that many in the international community see the war as the start of an American imperium. Both sides can't be right. - Ehsan Ahrari (Mar 18, '03)

THE ROVING EYE
The moment of truth - and lies
After all the months of guessing and second-guessing, argument and counter-argument, the United States-led showdown with Saddam Hussein has entered its final and deadly phase, with debate on the legality and morality or otherwise of war of academic interest alone. History alone will be the judge. -Pepe Escobar (Mar 17, '03) 

A star-spangled flag to the bull
One of the express goals of the "war on terror" was to find a way to end the phenomenon of anti-Americanism being used in the Muslim world as a "safety valve" for people's anger and frustration over the failings of their own governments. The weekend's protests in Jordan made clear that this phenomenon has never been so strong. - Paul Belden (Mar 17, '03)

IRAQ BEYOND SADDAM Upheaval, any upheaval, will do Should Washington's oft-expressed conviction that Iraq will be the first "domino" to fall in what will become a democratic revolution across the Arab Middle East not materialize, the alternative - fragmentation and disintegration of Arab states - might be just as desirable. - Jim Lobe (Mar 17, '03) Short-term gain, long-term pain Given the US's record, reform of Iraq's governing structures will receive little US attention, leaving the country as a potential source of violence, instability and weapons of mass destruction procurement in the medium to long term. - David Isenberg (Mar 17, '03)

JAPAN'S GRAND GAME
About 80 percent of Japanese oppose war in Iraq, but about 100 percent are worried about North Korea. Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi is hoping to turn those numbers to his advantage, by siding with US policy in both areas. While Purnendra Jain reports that Tokyo is missing an opportunity to enhance its status as a diplomatic force in the region, J Sean Curtin notes that while Koizumi has indeed bought into a high-stakes poker game, the Japanese PM is a shrewd and seasoned player. (Mar 17, '03) 
   Japan's wrong-headed Korea move 
   Koizumi trades Baghdad for Pyongyang

Miscalculation the greatest Korea war risk
Numerous, perhaps most, wars in history have started as the result of misestimation of enemy intentions and strength, uncontrolled and reckless escalation of tension, or sheer accident. Should war break out again on the Korean Peninsula, it will be no different. In the conclusion of a two-part series, Marc Erikson debunks the myth that North Korea is a military paper tiger. (Mar 14, '03)   
  
rench fried
Anti-French sentiment is running pretty high in the US at present as Paris dares to cross Washington at the UN. Beyond the ribald jokes and cheap shots, though, there is concern that the spat could do permanent damage to the North Atlantic-dominated multilateral system created after World War II. - Jim Lobe (Mar 14, '03)

Military buildup, by the numbers
In terms of sheer numbers, the air, ground and sea forces of the United States and the United Kingdom that are closing in on Iraq are by far the biggest ever assembled in the region. Iraq's military, by contrast, is a shadow of its former self. - Ian Urbina (Mar 14, '03)

THE ROVING EYE
Inside Saddam's mind
Saddam Hussein has visions of leaving his imprint on the coming centuries. He wants to be a King Gilgamesh who, 26 centuries before Christ, ruled over the city of Uruk - the superpower of the time. He wants to be a Saladin, the 12th century liberator of Jerusalem. He wants to be enshrined forever in Arab mythology. He will more likely get betrayal, and an ignominious death. - Pepe Escobar (Mar 13, '03)

IRAQ BEYOND SADDAM (Mar 13, '03) The search for regional security One important and neglected issue in any post-Saddam Hussein scenario is how an altered Iraq could make the region more stable and secure. This essay discusses past US policy toward the area, and ideas for future efforts to promote regional peace and prosperity. Bush's 'morning after' headache The Bush administration will not be drawn into debate on just how much war on Iraq and subsequent nation-building will cost. Which makes many on Capitol Hill wonder just what it is, then, that the administration has to hide. Ba'ath Party will need a role Political power in Iraq is concentrated in a one-party apparatus dominated by Saddam Hussein and the Ba'ath Party, which has more than 2 million supporters. The role of the party, therefore, even with its history of brutal intolerance, cannot be ignored once its leader leaves the scene.

SPEAKING FREELY
The Muslim problem in India
The Indian constitution provides a sound framework for the complete integration of Muslims into society, yet this has not happened, and will not happen as long as people insist on looking to the past rather than to the future. Satyabrata Rai Chowdhuri (Mar 13, '03)

Convers(at)ions on the road to Jordan
Iraqis are good people. Americans are good people. It's just that they have lousy governments. Quite a few people across the world might agree with these sentiments, expressed by an Iraqi truck driver named Omar on the road to Jordan with Paul Belden. But it's Omar and his countrymen who have to face the bombs and the bullets. (Mar 13, '03) 

Musharraf tightens his grip
Faced with a dangerous combination of widespread anti-US protests and increasing US complaints of a "double game" along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, President General Pervez Musharraf is considering a risky reshuffle of the top leadership of both the Pakistani army and the Inter-Services Intelligence. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Mar 12, '03)

Winds of change in Afghanistan
After 23 years of civil war, Afghanistan suffers from psychological and physical scars that will take decades to heal - yet the international community has so far failed to make a sustained commitment to the country's future. Part of the problem, writes Mark Sedra, lies in the lack of a coherent strategy for long-term Afghan security and reconstruction. Ramtanu Maitra argues that for the sake of peace, the time may have come to rethink at least one relic of 19th-century imperialism, the arbitrarily-imposed border known as the Durand Line. (Mar 12, '03)
     Reconstructing Afghanistan
     Dangerous line in the sand

'Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold' America's Eurasian reshuffle With a US-led war in Iraq on the horizon, Washington's economic and political ties with Western European countries such as France and Germany and East Asian countries such as China and Japan are poised for a major shift that has been developing for a decade. Francesco Sisci and Lu Xiang examine the ramifications of a weakened trans-Atlantic alliance and a strengthened trans-Pacific relationship. (Mar 11, '03) Why the US can go it alone Many reasons are adduced as to why European governments and populations oppose war in Iraq. They are all wrong. Washington, for its part, convinced of its rectitude and of being under threat, wants to determine on its own how to confront the threat, and as the supreme power,  will do so. - Stephen Blank (Mar 11, '03)

SUVs set off Hummer of a row
With Iraq and oil uppermost in the minds of many in America, it was inevitable that the monster gas-guzzling sports utility vehicles, especially the Hummer, which now dominate the market, should come under attack - and the fight promises to be a dirty one. - Ian Urbina and Zachary Roth (Mar 11, '03)

THE ROVING EYE
Beating the African drum
Rivals Washington and Paris are using the best of their persuasive powers to win over Guinea, Cameroon and Angola - the three African non-permanent members of the Security Council - ahead of the crucial UN vote on a possible resolution sanctioning war on Iraq. And the arguments have a lot more to do with pragmatism than they do with morality. - Pepe Escobar (Mar 10, '03) 

UN relevance faces historic test
Half a century ago, the machinations of world powers conspired to destroy the League of Nations, despite that body's record of success - now largely forgotten - in international diplomacy. Now, with the Iraq crisis focusing attention on the UN Security Council, most of what the United Nations accomplishes is being similarly ignored. Phar Kim Beng examines the UN's past, present, and future. (Mar 10, '03)

Turkish military in step with US
Despite what the politicians say about not wanting US troops on their soil, top Turkish military brass take a different view - and they could have their way sooner than expected with the imminent elevation of Recep Tayyip Erdogan to the country's premiership. (Mar 10, '03)

Cost estimates for war keep rising
The question of how much a war in Iraq will cost is being asked with increasing urgency. The cost in human lives cannot be calculated. But number crunchers are trying to tote up the money that the US and Britain will need to spend. Their estimates are high - and rising. (Mar 10, '03)

Enter the Shi'ites: Iraqi quagmire deepens
Iranian-backed Shi'ite forces have not waited for the first bombs to fall - they have already started taking up positions in northern Iraq. Not as clear, though, are their true intentions. As if Turkey-Kurdish-Iraq-Iran-US tensions weren't complicated enough already. - Ian Urbina (Mar 7, '03)

   A test for tribal loyalty 

The Baghdad beat (photo-essay) Their lives are in limbo as they wait for something out of their control to happen. The outcome is a question mark, but meanwhile life must go on. - Jason Florio (Mar 7, '03)

Can catastrophic Korean war be avoided?
The signs are all there: Provocation to the point of recklessness by a paranoid regime that cares only about its own survival; a long-standing ability to produce weapons of mass destruction, including nukes; and a dangerous failure by the main players to understand what is really at stake. This is the first of two articles in which Marc Erikson examines the scenario for the next Korean War. (Mar 7, '03)

Al-Qaeda back in the firing line
Apparently acting on information from the recently-arrested Khalid Shaikh Mohammad, a senior al-Qaeda figure, US and Pakistani troops have mounted a large military operation in Pakistan, in which further important arrests are said to have been made, including that of Osama bin Laden himself. Syed Saleem Shahzad explains the significance of this operation, while B Raman looks at the unnaturally cozy relations between al-Qaeda and some sections of the Pakistani army and intelligence apparatus. (Mar 7, '03)
   The net spreads in Pakistan
   The army's blue-eyed mullahs   

Jordan's Islamic Front rallies Muslims
The Islamic Action Front, the political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan, is the only force to openly challenge the leadership of that country over its ties with Israel and its role in the US-led war on Iraq. Syed Saleem Shahzad speaks to the head of the Front, who explains the motivation and goals of the movement, and how it can act as a catalyst for Arabs across the region. (Mar 6, '03)

Out with the US, in with the Turks
With the United States most likely having to adopt "Plan B" for its attack on Iraq, the way will be clear for Turkish troops - barring another hiccup in parliament - to pour into northern Iraq, where they will inevitably clash with the Kurds. And the US will be helpless to intervene. - Robert M Cutler (Mar 6, '03)

   Post-war Japan a poor role model

US media: Telling it like it isn't
As the saying goes, you can't believe everything you read in the newspaper. And especially so in the US, according to a group of professors, journalists and authors who are taking the media to task for blatantly toeing the official line, especially in regard to Iraq. The solution: read the foreign media. (Mar 6, '03)

COMMENTARY
Afghanistan drops off US radar screen
Without long-term commitment and a bag full of money, Afghanistan will quickly become the playground for the likes of the Taliban, whom the US went to so much effort and expense to remove from power. Yet Washington appears not to care any longer. - Ehsan Ahrari (Mar 6, '03)

   Hamid? Hamid who?

Why war in Iraq will be good for Seoul
Despite what anti-American demonstrators waving their "no blood for oil" banners want to believe, a US-led war against Iraq could benefit South Korea, given the alternatives. That is, of course, if Pyongyang behaves. - David M Lenard (Mar 6, '03) 

Khalid: A test for US credibility
With the United States claiming that it now has Khalid Shaikh Mohammad in its custody, one should expect increased activity against the al-Qaeda network, of which he is said to be a linchpin. Or should one? - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Mar 5, '03)

THE ROVING EYE
Coercion, all in the name of democracy
According to a new report, 34 nations support the US war against Iraq, which boils down to about 3 percent of the world's population. And of these countries, the report says, most of them have been recruited through "coercion, bullying and bribery". - Pepe Escobar (Mar 5, '03)

TERROR IN THE PHILIPPINES The southern Philippines has been the epicenter of an Islamic separatist movement for many years, a movement that has been marked by violence - most recently Tuesday's deadly bombing of Davao airport. B Raman examines the background of this movement and how its violent elements have been tackled, while Phar Kim Beng examines the thorny issue of jihad in the Southeast Asian context. (Mar 5, '03)    A recipe for violence     Why thugs can hijack 'jihad' Evolution of Philippine Muslim insurgency When nearly 2,000 US troops land in the Philippines next month, they will find themselves with an opportunity to help Filipinos combat a plague of banditry and terror posing as Muslim activism. Or, if the Americans fail to appreciate the complex origins of the troubles in the southern Philippines - and the United States' own history in the region - they will make matters even worse. - Marco Garrido (Mar 5, '03)

Khalid capture: Truths and half truths
Just as they did in the case of slain US journalist Daniel Pearl last year, Pakistani authorities appear to be playing a double game over the apprehension of alleged al-Qaeda kingpin Khalid Shaikh Mohammad, in the process raising more questions than they are prepared to answer. - B Raman (Mar 4, '03)

Turkish parliament's double-fisted knockout
In failing to approve the deployment of US troops in Turkey, the Turkish parliament has effectively scuttled any idea of an advance on northern Iraq. In the process, though, parliament has also dealt a potentially crippling blow to the plans of its own military, Robert M Cutler reports in the first article of a two-part series. (Mar 4, '03)

COMMENTARY
Democracy pricks imperial balloon
The Turkish rebuff to Washington may indicate that America's imperial worldview that comes with such moral certitude makes it impossible for it to appreciate the sensitivities of foreign public opinion, particularly in countries with democratic institutions, such as the Philippines and South Korea. - Jim Lobe (Mar 4, '03)

Problems with a 'painless' war
Those cheering George W Bush on to make war against Iraq shrug off the "war is hell" lessons learned during centuries of combat, including the 1990-91 Gulf War itself, and portray this conflict as having no downside, either for the West or for the Iraqis languishing under Saddam Hussein. Ahmad Faruqui explodes the myth of the anodyne war. (Mar 4, '03)

Gambles and gambits in the UN
As the date draws closer for a UN Security Council vote on a Washington-London proposal that would endorse intervention in Iraq, behind-the-scenes lobbying is intensifying, with the key countries increasingly likely to put their own self-interest first, which will play right into the hands of the US. - Alexander Casella (Mar 4, '03)

PYONGYANG WATCH
Castro and Kim: Ill-suited comrades
In a recent stop in Japan, Cuban President Fidel Castro offered his mediating services with regards to the North Korean nuclear crisis. On the surface, Castro and North Korea's Kim Jong-il may appear to have similar agendas, but as Aidan Foster-Carter reveals, their differences have increased steadily over time. (Mar 4, '03)

SPENGLER
Bush's nerve is going to snap
Thanks to the cupidity of Hans Blix and Turkey's decision to refuse US troops the use of the country to invade Iraq, the world looks uncannily different to President George W Bush than it did a week ago. His choices now boil down to backing down or acting alone upon a stage crafted to place American motives in the worst possible light. (Mar 3, '03)

Arrest of Khalid: Another of Hydra's heads?
The arrest in Pakistan of Khalid Sheikh Mohammad, described by the US as "the kingpin of al-Qaeda", has been jubilantly welcomed in both Islamabad and Washington as a major blow against terrorism. As past arrests of high al-Qaeda officials have shown, though, others are ready to step into their shoes. - B Raman (Mar 3, '03)

THE ROVING EYE
Arab impotence and misguided anger
The anger that nearly boiled over into physical confrontation between leading members of the Arab League at the weekend's abortive summit in Egypt is a sad example of misdirected passion at a time when ordinary citizens in the Arab world, indeed the world at large, so desperately need cool-headed leadership. - Pepe Escobar (Mar 3, '03)

February 2003