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 War
and Terror
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April 2009
THE ROVING EYE
The myth of Talibanistan
The Taliban's activities in Buner in Pakistan - which prompted a sharp response
from the military - have raised concern over the country to the level of
hysteria; that it is about to fall to an army of turbans. This is not going to
happen. What is happening is that the United States, to legitimize the next
stage in the Af-Pak war, is creating a new uber-bogeyman - Pakistan Taliban
leader Baitullah Mehsud. - Pepe Escobar (Apr
30,'09)
Farewell, the American Century
For Americans to see themselves as they really are and move forward in the
world, they have to say goodbye to the "American Century". It was, after all,
never more than an array of illusions in which Americans took more credit than
they deserved for triumphs and not nearly enough for follies and crimes
committed. - Andrew J Bacevich (Apr 30,'09)
Ideas before bullets
The Pakistan authorities, by using physical means to put down an uprising which
is political in origin, are stoking the flames of internal unrest and civil
war. This challenge would better be met with a barrage of ideas, not bullets or
missiles. And Islam is capable of meeting this challenge. - Asim Salahuddin
(Apr 30,'09)
Hawks soften rhetoric on Iran
Against the backdrop of US President Barack Obama's moves to engage Tehran, a
group of neo-conservative hawks gathered to discuss what they consider
provocative actions by Iran. But in a departure from the George W Bush era,
they are no longer talking tough, even recognizing the futility of invasions
and sanctions. (Apr 29,'09)
A capital idea for Afghanistan
With the United States' new strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan already under
attack, a symbol of hope is badly needed for the former. Replacing Kabul with a
new capital in a more central part of the country might serve that purpose
well. - Peter J Brown (Apr 29,'09)
A new order emerges in Lebanon
Calls for engagement with Hezbollah in Lebanon are increasing in Washington,
Britain is opening dialogue with non-state players and the Syrians are back in
the international arena. Steadily, the Middle East leftovers of the George W
Bush era are being eroded, and people like Lebanese warlord Walid Jumblatt are
preparing for the new alignments. - Sami Moubayed
(Apr 28,'09)
US and Iran stuck at pre-dialogue
Despite strong misgivings, many Iranian politicians still hope that a
meaningful breakthrough in relations with the United States is possible, based
on "common interests". A major hurdle, though, remains the perception of
President Mahmud Ahmadinejad as a mere "noisemaker" without clout in foreign
policy. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Apr 28,'09)
Many paths to Colombo's victory push
Although the Sri Lankan government will claim the lion's share of the glory for
what appears to be the imminent defeat of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam,
a number of other factors have contributed to the Tigers' demise. The coming to
power of an Indian government opposed to the group, a key split in the rebels
and the US's "war on terror" all played a part. - Ameen Izzadeen
(Apr 28,'09)
Pakistan goes its own pace on
militants
Despite violations - 
the most recent being in the Swat area this weekend - Pakistan is adamant it
will stick to its counter-insurgency policy of making selected peace deals in
the tribal areas, and it will not be drawn into any major United
States-inspired grand campaigns. - Syed Saleem Shahzad
(Apr 27,'09)
India anxious over Tiger chief's
fate
With the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam on the brink of defeat, the Sri
Lankan government says its three-decade hunt for chief Velupillai Prabhakaran
is nearing an end. His fate has serious implications for India, which might
well prefer to see him escape to foreign shores rather than deal with the
fallout from his capture or death. - Sudha Ramachandran
(Apr 27,'09)
White House miscalculations linger
On the surface, the administration of United States President Barack Obama
appears keen to engage Iran, yet it still clings to the idea that crippling
economic measures or military strikes will force Tehran to reverse its nuclear
program. This simply won't work. - Shahir Shahidsaless
(Apr 27,'09)
THE ROVING EYE
Torture whitewash from The Dark Side
The drama of torture memos released last week is shaping up as a case of
American exceptionalism one cannot believe in. Without accepting full
responsibility for torture - and illegal, pre-emptive wars - there can be no
catharsis in America. President Barack Obama is smart enough to know that if he
looks the other way, this whole mess could come back to haunt, and even
destroy, his presidency. - Pepe Escobar (Apr
23,'09)
INTERVIEW
Frontier wisdom
As governor of North-West Frontier Province, tight up against 
Afghanistan and the troubled Pakistani tribal areas, Owais Ahmad Ghani has a
major job on his hands, but he has a clear vision of how to go about it. The
key, he firmly believes, is in striking deals directly with tribal leaders,
thus marginalizing the militants. In the bigger picture, though, everything
depends on the situation across the border, where, he says, the Americans have
got it badly wrong. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Apr
23,'09)
Why Pyongyang clings to its weapons
Often portrayed as deranged zealots, North Korea's leaders are actually
cold-minded Machiavellians. They successfully used a rocket launch as a
sideshow to regain the international spotlight and remind the world of the real
threat: their nuclear weapons. And these are not going to go away any time
soon. - Andrei Lankov (Apr 23,'09)
Staring at the sun in Afghanistan
Nation-building and counter-insurgency, cornerstones of the United States' new
non-military solution for Afghanistan, are doomed if there is an unskilled,
under-resourced "surge". If this means more "imperial storm troopers" who don't
speak the language and just kick in doors, then more reliance on air power and
more Afghan anger and alienation seem inevitable. - Gareth Porter
(Apr 22,'09)
Ambush deep in the valley of
death
At 11:15 am, just when the air cover pulled off to refuel, insurgents, holed up
in hidden bunkers, began to fire rockets, mortars and small arms at American
jeeps. A day that had been intended to build bridges - both literally and
figuratively - in Afghanistan's "forgotten province" of Nuristan, had suddenly
gone horribly wrong. - Philip Smucker (Apr
21,'09)
BOOK REVIEW
Spoiling for a fight
The Accidental Guerrilla by David Kilcullen
The "accidental guerrillas", those wretched and unwanted "societal antibodies
emerging in response to Western intervention", love a fight, and they certainly
have one on their hands in Afghanistan, and increasingly in Nuristan province,
which the book clearly explains. As for the Taliban and al-Qaeda's plan for
"victory" - there is no answer. - Philip Smucker
(Apr 21,'09)
Jihadis target the high seas
The headline-hogging pirates operating in the Gulf of Aden and in the Indian
Ocean are a part of a wider chess game - a regional jihadi apparatus determined
to draw Western forces into its sphere of operations, either on land or at sea.
- Walid Phares (Apr 21,'09)
Spy versus spy in Iran, North Korea
The conviction in Iran of American freelance journalist Roxana Saberi on
charges of spying for the United States and the detention in North Korea of two
female US broadcast journalists goes to the larger issue of the nuclear
programs of Tehran and Pyongyang - and their cooperation with each other. The
three women could well become pawns in this greater game, but in the case of
the captives in the North, there are chilling differences. - Donald Kirk
(Apr 20,'09)
India's eye in the sky takes aim
Monday's launch of an Israeli-built surveillance satellite is as much a
testament to New Delhi's growing space prowess as it is to rapidly expanding
India-Israel defense arrangements since the Mumbai terror attacks. India's new
satellite is meant to deter cross-border infiltration with technology that can
decipher license plates from 550 kilometers above the ground. - Neeta Lal
(Apr 20,'09)
Iran given little to cheer
Iran this week celebrated a National Day of Nuclear Technology. On the
international stage, though, Tehran has little to cheer. The promising noises
United States President Barack Obama had made about a new beginning on dealing
with Iran's nuclear program have come to nothing, and the Iranians are not
going to budge over their insistence on the right to enrich uranium. - Kaveh L
Afrasiabi (Apr 17,'09)
Tigers stalk the ballot box
Sri Lankan Tamil Tigers and their supporters in Tamil Nadu have raised the
election temperature in the southern Indian state with threats and vitriolic
speeches, blaming the ruling Congress party for the hammering the Tigers are
taking. All the same, political expediency may yet win the day. - Sudha
Ramachandran (Apr 16,'09)
THE ROVING EYE
The mother of all cockfights
What President Barack Obama won't do - and the Pentagon won't allow - is to do
a full Vietnam and go down as the president who lost the American empire of
bases and the dream of prevailing in the New Great Game in Eurasia. Meanwhile,
it will be Predator hell from above raining over angry Pashtun tribals in
Pakistan. Make no mistake: there will be blood - a lot of blood. - Pepe Escobar
(Apr 16,'09)
Militants open a new front in
Pakistan
When a United States Predator drone recently attacked the tribal headquarters
of Baitullah Mehsud it not only missed the Pakistani Taliban leader, it stirred
a hornet's nest. Mehsud has vowed to strike back in the urban areas, starting
in the port city of Karachi, where the security forces have broken an unwritten
agreement and cracked down on Mehsud's supporters. - Syed Saleem Shahzad
(Apr 15,'09)
Seoul strikes back at Pyongyang
South Korea has responded to the North's provocative decision to resume
fabricating nuclear weapons by joining the international initiative to stop
nations from dealing in weapons of mass destruction. This gives Seoul the right
to interdict North Korean vessels on the high seas - a move that would
inevitably provoke a flare-up. - Donald Kirk (Apr
15,'09)
Egypt has Hezbollah in its sights
Egypt waited five months before announcing the arrest of 49 people accused of
being members of Hezbollah and of planning sabotage attacks on Egyptian
territory. The timing is important, and a strong message to Hezbollah leader
Hassan Nasrallah, as well as to Iran. - Sami Moubayed
(Apr 14,'09)
Don't flash the yellow light
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's warnings about a possible attack on
Iran if the Barack  Obama
administration does not quickly find a way to shut down Tehran's nuclear
program can be viewed as manufactured hysteria, and not so much a reflection of
genuine Israeli fears. This could be a big mistake. - Roane Carey
(Apr 14,'09)
US grapples with Israeli threats
Israel's tough words about a possible strike on Iran over its nuclear program
have set off intense debate in the Barack Obama administration on whether the
threats should be used to gain leverage in future negotiations with Tehran. - Gareth
Porter and Jim Lobe (Apr 14,'09)
Obama may cede Iran's nuclear
rights
United States President Barack Obama plans to ease the standoff on Iran's
nuclear program - and stage a US comeback in Central Asia - by offering Tehran
access to a global nuclear fuel bank in Kazakhstan. Tehran has welcomed the
strategy, and the likely involvement of Japan serves up other geopolitical
dimensions favorable to the Washington. Moscow is less enthusiastic. - M K
Bhadrakumar (Apr 9,'09)
ATol INTERVIEW
US reaches out to Hekmatyar
The unprecedented meeting between a United States official and Dauod Abeidi, a
deputy of legendary resistance fighter Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, may illustrate just
how much the US wants to find a way out of Afghanistan. Then again, nobody
wants foreign troops out more than the Afghans, Abeidi exclusively tells Syed
Saleem Shahzad. (Apr 9,'09)
On the case in Tora Bora
An American attorney is defending ex-Taliban commander Awal Gul against
allegations that he aided and abetted Osama Bin Laden's confounding,
Svengali-like getaway during the battle of Tora Bora in 2001. But the case
won't hold up, says Philip Smucker, who was at the battle, knew Gul and
is now revisting old haunts in the Afghan hills. What really happened is Bin
Laden paved his own exit, plain and simple, with guns, wits and money.
(Apr 9,'09)
What Obama didn't see in Iraq
While United States President Barack Obama's surprise visit hogged the
headlines, more important news was circling Baghdad's streets. A reduced
sentence for a shoe-thrower sparked jubilation, while moves to bring exiled
Ba'athists into the political fold finally hold promise. A bigger problem for
the Nuri al-Maliki government lies in the Awakening Councils, as his attempts
to quash them may have triggered Monday's six deadly car bombs. - Sami Moubayed
(Apr 8,'09)
Pakistan ponders the price for peace
Pakistan receives billions of dollars from the United States to cooperate in
the war against militants. Yet, amid a string of warnings of the impending
collapse of the country, the harsh reality is hitting home in Islamabad that
the military solutions the US pursues will never bring peace. - Syed Saleem
Shahzad (Apr 8,'09)
DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
A sky filled with assassins
While the US's pilotless assassination drones patrol expanding global
battlefields, Pentagon dreamers are working on the next generation of killing
machines. Post-2020, they hope drones will be able to fly, fight and incinerate
enemies without human decision-making. But don't for a minute think those
hunter-killer skies won't some day fill with the drones of other nations too. - Tom
Engelhardt (Apr 8,'09)
Obama twists and turns on Iran
United States President Barack Obama, by repeatedly referring to Iran in his
major foreign policy speeches, such as in Prague and in the Turkish parliament,
has clearly prioritized the country. The problem is the mixed messages he sends
out, which will do nothing to assure Tehran that a "new beginning" is any
closer. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Apr 7,'09)
A missile launch for dummies
North Korea on Sunday demonstrated its ability to deliver a warhead to a
distant target, though its "satellite" - possibly a dummy to cover up for a
test of the Taepodong-2 - crashed and burned. In response, the United Nations
Security Council did nothing, South Korea got a bit angry and Washington
appears too wrapped up in its economic woes to care. - Donald Kirk
(Apr 6,'09)
All roads lead to Pakistan
Top United States officials are in Pakistan to discuss ways to increase their
participation in tackling al-Qaeda and militants. The militants are increasing
their activities, now targeting the capital Islamabad and Punjab, the largest
province. Pakistan is clearly emerging as a new war theater; there will be
heavy costs for all sides. - Syed Saleem Shahzad
(Apr 6,'09)
THE ROVING EYE
Globocop versus the TermiNATO
No one will actually admit it - but many in Washington and Brussels would love
the North Atlantic Treaty Organization to really be a borderless international
sheriff, bypassing the United Nations to perform humanitarian imperialism all
over the globe, taking out al-Qaeda and "terrorists" anywhere, and protecting
energy pipelines for Western interests in all directions. - Pepe Escobar
(Apr 3,'09)
Launch? What launch?
The moment of truth has finally arrived - the four-day window during which
North Korea says it will launch a satellite into space, but which most other
countries say is a missile. Threats of United Nations Security Council action
against Pyongyang count for little. The best option would be for the world to
simply look the other way. - Donald Kirk (Apr
3,'09)
INTERVIEW
A lost vision for US intelligence
Had Charles 
Freeman's role as chair of the United States' National Intelligence Council not
been fatally sabotaged by the "gang of Likudniks", he would have mended the
public's tattered faith in the US intelligence community by taking a real-world
approach that omitted sycophancy and political correctness, Freeman tells Jim
Lobe. Emerging from the sorry episode, Freeman feels one positive is
that the Israel lobby may have overexposed itself. (Apr
2,'09)
The rise and rise of the
neo-Taliban
The neo-Taliban, a new generation of Pakistani, Afghan, al-Qaeda and Kashmiri
fighters, have formed a separate wing of the Taliban-led insurgency in
Afghanistan. Their operations, which will initially center on creating chaos
through kidnappings and attacks on high-profile individuals, will spread across
the region. The latest shot was fired in the "peaceful" Swat Valley on
Wednesday. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Apr 1,'09)
THE ROVING EYE
The secrets of Obama's surge
President Barack Obama is selling the US's military surge in Afghanistan and
Pakistan as nation-building based on trust. A hard sell if there ever was one -
as Washington cannot trust the Pakistani government or security forces, while
the Pakistanis don't trust Washington. Can nation-building be done by Predator
drones? Will this become Obama's Vietnam? Whatever it is, it's not about
"terrorists". Not really. - Pepe Escobar (Apr
1,'09)
Israel rushes to India's defense
Israel has overtaken Russia to become India's number one defense supplier,
signing a US$1.4 billion deal for an anti-missile air defense system. The sale
was made right before elections were called, allowing the Congress-led
government in Delhi to show voters that it doesn't take security lightly. - Siddharth
Srivastava (Apr 1,'09)
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ATol Specials
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Syed Saleem Shahzad reports on
the Afghan war from the Taliban side
(Dec '06)
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How
Hezbollah defeated Israel
By
Mark Perry and
Alastair Crooke
(Oct '06)
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Mark Perry and
Alastair Crooke
talk to the 'terrorists'
(Mar, '06)
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The evidence for and against Iran's alleged
nuclear weapons program
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Nir Rosen goes inside the Iraqi
resistance
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Nir Rosen rides with the 3rd
armored cavalry in western Iraq
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Islamism, fascism and
terrorism
by Marc Erikson
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For earlier articles go to:
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