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 War
and Terror
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June 2009
Iraq celebrates a victory of
sorts
Baghdad rocked with live concerts and fireworks on Monday night as United
States troops completed their withdrawal from cities and towns across Iraq. The
Iraqi security forces will now have to look after their own people, even though
the future of the country remains strongly linked to the regional balance of
power between Iran, Saudi Arabia, Syria and the United States. - Sami Moubayed
(Jun 30,'09)
SPENGLER
Obama creates a deadly power
vacuum
President Barack Obama has not betrayed the interests of the United States to
any foreign power, but he has done the next worst thing, namely, to create a
void by withdrawing American power. By removing America as a referee, he will
provoke more violence than the United States ever did. A very, very dangerous
period is about to begin, and it could start with Iran.
(Jun 29,'09)
Pentagon 'rewrites' airstrike
atrocity
An edited version of the investigation report on the United States' fatal May 4
bombing in Afghanistan's Farah province omitted key details that would have
revealed the self-serving character of the US command's previous claims blaming
the Taliban for the large numbers of civilian deaths from the airstrikes. - Gareth
Porter (Jun 26,'09)
DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
Two sides to violence
Recent polls reveal that nearly half the American public is unsure that Israel
is still the good guy in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The eroding support
for Israeli policies signals a growing appetite for a new, more even-handed
narrative. What must be understood is that the crucial conflict is not between
Israel and Palestine. It's between peace and violence. - Ira Chernus
(Jun 26,'09)
Pakistan targets its most wanted
man
Pakistani Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud's network, which includes al-Qaeda
and assorted militants, spreads across the country and is responsible for
numerous deadly attacks. Helicopter gunships and fighter bombers are now after
him in his tribal stronghold; troops will follow. Blazing guns might disrupt
the nexus, but the militants can be expected to re-emerge in another form or
another country. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Jun
23,'09)
A convenient North Korean distraction
The main venue for demonstrating enhanced United States-Japanese cooperation as
a viable alternative to Chinese diplomatic suzerainty over North Asia is North
Korea. In this process, Dear Leader Kim Jong-il is playing a perfect role by
provoking a security crisis the US can exploit to the full. - Peter Lee
(Jun 22,'09)
Afghanistan's road to somewhere
For three years, the United States, China, the Asian 
Development Bank and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization have all promised
the last link of a national ring road that would integrate the residents of
Afghanistan's Badghis province with their regional neighbors. Blocking the way
is the Taliban insurgency. - Philip Smucker (Jun
19,'09)
Beijing toys with tougher tactics
On the surface, China hasn't toughened its stance on North Korea, despite
Pyongyang's nuclear test. But a closer look suggests Beijing is indeed
considering hardening its line, as fears of North Korea's nuclear pursuit - and
the accompanying North Asian reactions - grow. - Willy Lam
(Jun 19,'09)
US neo-cons sniff a chance
Right-wing attacks have put huge pressure on United States President Barack
Obama to take a more activist stance on Iran; these may lead to a domestic
political backlash against him. Yet neo-conservatives are happy with President
Mahmud Ahmadinejad as they see him justifying their calls for action against
Tehran over its nuclear program. (Jun 19,'09)
Tigers struggle to rise from the
ashes
The highest-ranking Tamil Tiger believed to be alive, fugitive Selvarajah
Pathmanathan, has announced plans to create a "provisional transnational
government of Tamil Eelam". Colombo has responded with a loud guffaw, though it
is still on guard for the suicide bombers that are believed to be roaming free
in the capital. - Munza Mushtaq (Jun 18,'09)
Obama lights North Korea's fuse
By signing a joint statement with South Korean President Lee Myung-bak pledging
commitment to the US "nuclear umbrella", President Barack Obama has sent the
North Koreans a loud and clear message. The US has a lot more nukes than they
do, and is willing to use them if that is what it will take to stop Pyongyang's
nonsense. North Korea's venomous response is expected soon. - Donald Kirk
(Jun 17,'09)
Iran's enemies are circling
The unrest following the controversial re-election of President Mahmud
Ahmadinejad places a brake on any initiatives by the United States to directly
engage Iran. For an emerging anti-Iranian militant grouping overseen by
al-Qaeda, the drama unfolding on the streets of Tehran provides the perfect
opportunity for increased activity. - Syed Saleem Shahzad
(Jun 16,'09)
Pyongyang sends a radioactive riposte
While not unexpected, North Korea's response to the United Nations Security
Council's admonishment of its nuclear test - stepping up plutonium production -
does force the hand of the United States. If the US responds by promising South
Korea a defensive "nuclear umbrella", it will again play into the hands of
Pyongyang's propagandists. - Donald Kirk (Jun
15,'09)
Sino-Russian baby comes of age
After eight years, the six-member Shanghai Cooperation Organization has evolved
from being "little more than a discussion forum" into a powerful bloc, with
China and Russia its main drivers. From economic clout to gatecrashing the
United States' AfPak strategy, the group demands attention, so much so it is
being talked of as an emerging military alliance. This is not the case, but the
SCO's leaders are ensuring that security in Central Asia and beyond is in
trusted hands. - M K Bhadrakumar (Jun 12,'09)
North Korea resolution lacks teeth
The draft resolution passed by the United Nations Security Council on North
Korea's second nuclear test is filled with unenforceable demands for the Hermit
Kingdom to drop its nuclear program and stop firing missiles. The only
difference from previous unenforceable demands is a clause that signatory
states can inspect suspicious ships in their territory and "on the high seas".
- Donald Kirk (Jun 12,'09)
Crisis-hit Singapore tightens
grip
Singapore's opposition leaders say anti-terror legislation passed in April was
a ruse to extend the government's strict control of political activities and
press freedoms. The financial crisis has shaken the ruling party's claims of
providing economic growth, and some say the law was designed to forestall any
anti-government response. - Tony Sitathan
(Jun 12,'09)
Nuclear war is Kim Jong-il's game plan
North Korea already has a strategy for a thermonuclear struggle with the United
States and its allies, says the Hermit Kingdom's unofficial spokesman, and it's
not pretty. Nuclear detonations in outer space will "evaporate" key targets,
and underwater explosions will swamp seaboards with radioactive tsunamis. The
US won't stop acting aggressively, says the game plan, until its wiped off the
map. - Kim Myong Chol (Jun 11,'09)
Pakistan fights for its tribal
soul
Pakistan on Thursday extended its fight against militants into new tribal
areas, fully aware that its operations have already drawn such responses as the
deadly attack on a luxury hotel on Tuesday. In the tribal areas, which cover a
vast swathe of land that runs across the country, societies have been
out-gunned, out-funded and out-organized by al-Qaeda "franchises". The real
battle is to win them back. - Syed Saleem Shahzad
(Jun 11,'09)
Iran's elections a soft-power
boon
No matter who wins the presidential election on Friday, the open and dynamic
election process ensures that the man in power will have a clear mandate to
deal with the rest of the world, particularly over Tehran's contentious nuclear
program. This reduces the maneuverability of the anti-Iran coalition the United
States has been trying to put together in the Middle East. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi
(Jun 10,'09)
China: Pyongyang just wants attention
Beijing has dismissed North Korea's saber-rattling on the Korean Peninsula as
mere brinksmanship and is reluctant to criticize Pyongyang's internal affairs.
But there are deeper layers than that. China and North Korea are still bonded
by a long-standing communist alliance, and Beijing's vital economic lifeline
remains intact. (Jun 10,'09)
India blasts rivals' role in Sri
Lanka
Senior Indian officials are not happy that arms and training from China and
Pakistan, India's two great rivals, may have "clinched" the Sri Lankan
government's victory over the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam. Colombo claims
it had little choice as New Delhi refused to sell it weapons over fears of
domestic strife. - Siddharth Srivastava (Jun
10,'09)
US shackled by Pyongyang's ploy
The United States is caught between public demands for the release of American
journalists detained in North Korea and its tough-guy take on Pyongyang's
nuclear and missile tests. The balancing act has left Washington dithering as
North Korea's leverage grows. Meanwhile, the two female reporters are set to
begin "re-education'' in a penal system known for brutality, starvation and
torture. - Donald Kirk (Jun 9,'09)
Battle for top Tiger spot begins
Far from Sri Lanka, a succession struggle for the leadership of the Tamil
Tigers is underway. The chief of international relations, Selvarasa
Pathmanathan, is the frontrunner. He is believed to be the senior-most Tiger
alive, but his fight for the position - and control of the Tigers' lucrative
war chest - is not going to go unchallenged. - Sudha Ramachandran
(Jun 9,'09)
Taliban put on a 'friendly face'
The Taliban have infiltrated big Afghan cities and remote villages, where they
ruthlessly pursue political and economic interests. So certain of their growing
strength, the Taliban have embarked on a broad national effort to enhance their
image and address concerns of Afghans who have become unhappy with their
actions. - Philip Smucker (Jun 8,'09)
Pakistan placed on the spot
Washington is acutely aware of a possible regional crisis spreading from
Pakistan and is doing its utmost to convince its allies in Europe to muster all
possible support for Islamabad. The Europeans fully understand the problem, but
first, Pakistan has to maintain its commitment to fighting militancy. - Syed
Saleem Shahzad (Jun 8,'09)
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Washington moves the 'red line' on
Iran
Washington appears to be setting the stage for talks with Tehran, despite the
newest International Atomic Energy Agency report that hardly gives Iran a clean
bill of health. United States President Barack Obama tread softly over the
nuclear issue in his Middle East tour last week, while his point man on Iran
was on a mission aimed at "drawing everyone in". Confidence-building has begun.
- Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Jun 8,'09)
Obama's hearts and minds trifecta
In the race for Muslim hearts and minds, United States President Barack Obama
has chosen his first two destinations well in Turkey and Egypt, and scored
points for eloquently balancing sensitivity with some frank truths. The next
likely stop is his childhood home, Indonesia, where he can point to a
successful example of moderate Islam being combined with liberal democracy. - Donald
K Emmerson (Jun 8,'09)
India pushes for security revamp
Relieved that it managed to win another term despite the November Mumbai terror
attacks, India's Congress-led government is working hard to fix an ailing
security system. Proposed measures include an overhaul of
intelligence-gathering networks, though skeptics worry New Delhi's infamous
bureaucracy will stand in the way. - Neeta Lal
(Jun 8,'09)
Obama lays his Likud trap
President Barack Obama's laidback rhetoric in Cairo hints at the end of an era
of almost unqualified support for Israel. By enticing Israeli hardliners to
come out explicitly with their renunciation of the peace process, Obama gives
the White House some serious leverage against US politicians who might
otherwise be pressured into derailing his moves. - Ian Williams
(Jun 5,'09)
The audacity of hope, from
Cairo
When United States President Barack Obama gave his speech to the Muslim world
in Cairo on Thursday, ordinary Syrians went to coffee shops to listen - a
ritual usually reserved for Hezbollah broadcasts - and smiled at the
realization things are changing in Washington. Particularly encouraging were
Obama's words on Palestine. But then, the only way to go in fractious Arab-US
relations is up. - Sami Moubayed (Jun 5,'09)
Hezbollah waits for its moment
With the help of Christian votes, the Hezbollah-led opposition is expected in
voting on Sunday to narrowly win a majority in Lebanon's parliament. Saudi
Arabia, Iran, Syria and especially the United States are looking on with more
than their usual interest at the most significant elections in the country's
history. - Stephen Starr (Jun 5,'09)
Iran nuclear leaks 'linked to
Israel'
A report by the United States Senate last month provides new evidence that
Israel was the source of documents that have been used to accuse Iran of hiding
its nuclear weapons research. The leaked documents reinforce Israel's claim
that Tehran is on the brink of building nuclear weapons. Still, as the report
warns, "It is impossible to rule out an elaborate intelligence ruse." - Gareth
Porter (Jun 4,'09)
Obama can dream an AfPak dream
Prior to Thursday's speech from United States President Barack Obama to the
Muslim world, Middle Easterners were looking for fresh substance from the
youthful leader. The time has come for the US to consider promoting a gas
pipeline from Iran to Pakistan and further on to India and possibly to China.
This bold move could mean the difference between success and failure for the
US's AfPak strategy. - M K Bhadrakumar (Jun
4,'09)
US steadfast against Hezbollah
The United States continues to play a zero-sum game with regard to Hezbollah,
even with the US-listed "terror" group poised to strengthen its position in
Lebanon at the weekend's parliamentary elections. This is despite the fact that
pro-Iran Hezbollah could help pave the way for a breakthrough in Washington's
ties with Tehran. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Jun
4,'09)
Jihad goes intercontinental
It is clear from last year's deadly attack in Mumbai that jihadis are acting as
an overarching force across Afghanistan, Pakistan and India. Their cobweb is
extremely diverse and not entirely coordinated, but from political parties to
student unions to jihadi guerrillas, it is cemented by ideology. To beat them,
the US must not fall into the "good" Taliban trap. - Walid Phares
(Jun 4,'09)
Iran wages lonely war on terror
Tehran is probing deeper into last week's deadly mosque bombing in Zahedan, but
has yet to point any fingers at the West. Iran can't raise an international
scandal with US President Barack Obama set to address the Muslim world on
Thursday, and its June 12 national election so delicately poised. Looking
further, Tehran realizes rhetorical outbursts against Washington will only play
into Israeli hands. - M K Bhadrakumar (Jun
3,'09)
THE ROVING EYE
The shadow war in Balochistan
With or without using Jundallah for its own Iran-destabilizing agenda,
Washington's "other" war is about to hit Balochistan in Pakistan full speed
ahead. By mid-summer, the US's Afghan surge in troops will be in position. A
new American mega-base in Helmand province's "desert of death" will be
operational. Assassination teams, drone attacks and Hellfire missiles will boil
this tense tri-border area. Shadowplay rules. - Pepe Escobar
(Jun 3,'09)
SINOGRAPH
Pyongyang better left to its devices
It can be assumed that North Korea timed its nuclear test in 2006 and the one
last month to provoke China, and Beijing understood it this way - not that
there was - or will be - any rash response. Major issues such as the
unification of the Korean Peninsula, US troops stationed in South Korea and a
possible refugee crisis determine that Pyongyang be left alone - apart from
cutting off the supply of finer things to its pampered leaders.
(Jun 3,'09)
This article kicks off a new weekly column by long-time Beijing resident Francesco
Sisci.
FM mullahs spread the Taliban's word
As the Pakistani army's helicopter gunships pound the Swat Valley, another war
is raging on the airwaves. Through pirate radio transmitters, the Taliban's "FM
mullahs" deliver a constant stream of anti-American and anti-government salvos.
By identifying local infidels - who are often butchered - influential
firebrands spread fear among any tribes tempted to side with the military. - Mukhtar
A Khan (Jun 3,'09)
Indian arms spree on the fast track
Now that the ruling coalition in Delhi is rid of its pesky anti-American
partners, the role of Indian private firms in defense production will increase,
while American defense suppliers will add to the competition. This will put the
government in a fine position to negotiate its arms purchases worth many
billions of dollars. - Siddharth Srivastava (Jun
3,'09)
Hezbollah spices up Israel-Iran
mix
Hezbollah, which is widely favored to win parliamentary elections in Lebanon on
June 7, has made it clear that should this happen, it will seek even closer
ties with Iran, to the extent of military assistance. Israel has upped the ante
by reportedly focusing on covert activities to "disrupt Iran's nuclear
program", as well as supporting the Sunni Islamist group Jundallah against
Tehran. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Jun 2,'09)
Obama's Iran overture derailed
Iran's Supreme Leader responded to President Barack Obama's greeting for the
Iranian New Year by saying he'd like to see action rather than words from the
United States. Meanwhile, President Mahmud Ahmadinejad is using Iran's nuclear
nationalism to push his moderate challengers to the political margins. There
are indications that behind Obama's olive branch, trouble is brewing. - Shahir
Shahidsaless (Jun 2,'09)
Fighting the wrong fight in
Afghanistan
The "bad guys", along with Osama bin Laden's trusted corps of advisors, are
swarming in the valleys, hills and mountains of Afghanistan as a risk-averse,
air-power-friendly United States military has effectively surrendered the
countryside over the past three years. If you doubt that, try taking a stroll
outside the massive sand-filled walls of any American base. - Philip Smucker
(Jun 2,'09)
Wrong venue for Obama's Muslim
speech
By addressing the "Islamic world" from Cairo, US President Barack Obama lends
credibility to the Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas and other advocates of political
Islam who demand that Muslims be addressed globally and on religious terms. For
an American president to validate such an aspiration is madness, and also
undermines Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak on his home ground. There is a way
to fix the situation: give the speech in New Delhi. - Spengler
(Jun 1,'09)
The myth of a 'Muslim world'
If President Barack Obama continues to approach Arabs and Muslims as a single
collective ready to be manipulated with bogus promises, fancy rhetoric and
impressive body language, then he will surely be disappointed. Highly
politicized, skeptical and fed-up societies refuse to be reduced to a mere
percentage in some opinion poll that can be swayed when Washington determines
the time and place. - Ramzy Baroud (Jun
1,'09)
Missing Tiger spy chief spells
trouble
With the body of powerful Tamil Tigers intelligence head Pottu Amman still
missing, neither Sri Lanka-based nor overseas Tigers lining up for dead chief
Velupillai Prabhakaran's job can sleep easy. If Amman did escape the final
offensive that killed his comrades, the Tiger's strategy of violence will
likely resume. - Sudha Ramachandran (Jun
1,'09)
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ATol Specials
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Syed Saleem Shahzad reports on
the Afghan war from the Taliban side
(Dec '06)
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How
Hezbollah defeated Israel
By
Mark Perry and
Alastair Crooke
(Oct '06)
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Mark Perry and
Alastair Crooke
talk to the 'terrorists'
(Mar, '06)
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The evidence for and against Iran's alleged
nuclear weapons program
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Nir Rosen goes inside the Iraqi
resistance
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Nir Rosen rides with the 3rd
armored cavalry in western Iraq
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Islamism, fascism and
terrorism
by Marc Erikson
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For earlier articles go to:
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