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 War
and Terror
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December 2009
Weapons seizure hits North Korea
hard
Thailand's detention of an arms cache on a Republic of Georgia-registered plane
possibly bound for the Middle East dealt a blow to one of North Korea's biggest
sources of foreign currency. It also casts light into the shady world of
international arms trafficking. - Brian McCartan
(Dec 21, '09)
Iran has defense headache
Talk of a possible Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear and missile facilities
continues, the latest an indication by the United States that it may not be
able to restrain Israel for much longer. Iran would struggle to defend its air
space, leaving a relatively small number of missiles with conventional warheads
as its main weapon. - Richard M Bennett (Dec
21, '09)
South Korea let off for nuclear
deceptions
In 2004, the International Atomic Energy Agency revealed that a member state
had lied and carried out covert uranium conversion and enrichment activities
for more than two decades, raising legitimate suspicions of interest in a
nuclear weapons program. Sounds like Iran, right? Wrong. This deception was
carried out by South Korea, and the violations went unpunished. - Gareth Porter
(Dec 21, '09)
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Pyongyang issues a call for arms
Emerging details of United States envoy Stephen Bosworth's visit to Pyongyang
have made clear the North's main condition before returning to the six-party
talks on its nuclear program - the lifting of sanctions imposed on its arms
trade. The seizure in Thailand of a cargo plane laden with North Korean arms
highlights that the sanctions are working. - Donald Kirk
(Dec 18, '09)
UN's Afghan mission takes a hit
The United Nations' special representative to Afghanistan, Kai Eide, has
launched a blistering attack on his sacked former deputy, American Peter
Galbraith, claiming that he plotted to unconstitutionally depose President
Hamid Karzai. Karzai remains in power, with a new five-year term, but the UN's
efforts at coordinating civilian reconstruction projects have taken a big hit.
- Sreeram Chaulia (Dec 18, '09)
US silent on Taliban's al-Qaeda
offer
The administration of United States President Barack Obama has made no official
response to an offer from the Taliban that they would give "legal guarantees"
not to allow Afghanistan to be used for attacks on other countries by outsiders
- namely, al-Qaeda - in exchange for the withdrawal of all foreign forces. This
silence leaves the door open for Washington to still negotiate a deal. - Gareth
Porter (Dec 16, '09)
 SINOGRAPH
A radical empire looms
China and the United States are becoming closer, and there is pro-Beijing
sentiment in Nepal, Sri Lanka and Myanmar. If the new US policies allow
Pakistan to increase its clout in Afghanistan, India could feel it is caught in
a vice. However, Delhi should not rejoice if Afghanistan's anarchy spreads,
since if Kabul and Islamabad fall, the vast "new India" that could emerge would
face massive destabilization from radical Islamic elements. - Francesco Sisci
(Dec 16, '09)
A heavy price for pushing troops too
far
There are many symptoms that the United States military, still involved in two
distant, grueling wars, is stressed out - from its rising suicide rate and
mental health crisis to its repeated tours of duty and falling standards. A
retired lieutenant colonel pulls all the warning signs together and offers a
portrait of an army in decline. - William Astore
(Dec 16, '09)
Taliban offer alternative justice
The conviction of the mayor of 
Kabul on corruption charges might be a small step in Afghanistan's
reinvigorated anti-graft drive, but it cannot disguise the fact that efforts to
improve a judicial system plagued by inefficiency, bribery and nepotism appear
to be failing to the point that many Afghans are turning to another power for
justice - the Taliban. - Abubakar Siddique (Dec
16, '09)
THE ROVING EYE
Iraq's oil auction hits the jackpot
Russia and China were the big winners in the latest auction of Iraq's oil
rights, as was the government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki; United States
companies were conspicuous by their absence. If the oil starts to flow as now
promised, the next few years should see the rise of a relatively wealthy,
Shi'ite-controlled Iraq, friendly with Iran and Lebanon's Hezbollah. Does this
make Maliki the new Saddam Hussein? - Pepe Escobar
(Dec 15, '09)
Surprises aplenty in selloff
The impression that the West would renew its dominance of the Iraqi oil
extraction industry has been shattered with the latest auction of oil rights,
with Russia's Lukoil leading the winning bids. Other successful parties include
interests from as far afield as Malaysia and Angola. - Robert M Cutler
(Dec 15, '09)
Turkey's Kurd initiative goes up
in smoke
The banning of Turkey's Kurdish-based Democratic Society Party by a
constitutional court has sparked violent protests across the country. The
turmoil comes after the government had moved to broaden the rights of the
12-million-strong ethnic Kurdish minority in hopes of ending decades of
conflict. - Stephen Starr (Dec 15, '09)
India-US tangle looms over terror
suspect
New Delhi is formally seeking the extradition of a United States citizen the
Federal Bureau of Investigation says helped organize last year's terrorist
strike on Mumbai. But the suspect's record as a former top informant for the US
Drug Enforcement Agency may complicate matters. - Neeta Lal
(Dec 14, '09)
The dust bowl of Babylon
As Iraq strives to emerge 
from years of war, crippling water shortages may be the next great threat.
Drought is driving thousands of people away from the fabled southern
marshlands, but inept water management, collapsing infrastructure and the
government's inability to stand up to its water-hoarding neighbors also play
their part. - Martin Chulov (Dec 14, '09)
Turmoil reveals Iraqi reliance on
US
Following the massive bombings in Iraq last week, a widespread belief that
politicians cannot run the country alone, that is, without the United States,
has been reinforced. Accusations that the US had a hand in helping push through
a controversial election law have only added to this perception. - Abeer
Mohammed and Neil Arun (Dec 14, '09)
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War brings profits to south
Thailand
The visit of Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak to Thailand has reaffirmed
Malaysia's support for Thai counter-insurgency policies against Muslim rebels
in the southernmost provinces on the border with Malaysia. The insurgency there
will not end, though, as long as there is profit to be made, notably from human
trafficking and drug-smuggling. - Brian McCartan
(Dec 11, '09)
Osama can run, how long can he hide?
First, the United States 
plans to roll back the Taliban's gains in Afghanistan, then capture or
eliminate Osama bin Laden, which in turn will lead to the "ultimate defeat of
al-Qaeda". The 30,000 additional troops going into Afghanistan might help in
the first objective. Thereafter, the task becomes ever so difficult. - Syed
Saleem Shahzad (Dec 11, '09)
Clear losers and winners in Baghdad
As much as Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki tries to shift the blame
following this week's multiple bomb attacks in Baghdad, apart from the tragic
death toll, he and his State of Law Coalition are the big losers as the
countdown begins to March elections. Shi'ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr can only
gain from Maliki's wavering. - Sami Moubayed (Dec
11, '09)
India caught in a terror tangle
India has unveiled an ambitious counter-terrorism venture to pool data that
would then be accessible to 10 security agencies. Yet so bureaucratically dense
has the web of competing interests and responsibilities within the security
apparatus become, the initiative is likely to increase the likelihood of terror
attacks. Perhaps the United States wasn't the best example to follow. - Sreeram
Chaulia (Dec 10, '09)
US surge plays into Taliban hands
The Barack Obama administration's new Afghan strategy leaves wide open the
Taliban's lifeline to further recruitment based on madrassa graduates.
Its withdrawal deadline also means insurgents need merely wait out the
hurricane of escalation. They can then either accept an offer to join the
Afghan government or simply reject it and shell the "infidel troops" as they
pull out. - Walid Phares (Dec 10, '09)
The day the general made a misstep
Within days of his May appointment as the United States' main man in
Afghanistan, General McChrystal and his vast team of counter-insurgency experts
"flooded the zone", making it clear to all and sundry, including the US
ambassador, as to who was calling the shots. It should have been a slam-dunk
for the general to get his way in demanding a vast surge in troops, but for one
fateful gaffe. - Mark Perry (Dec 9, '09)
'Surge' sends Obama soaring
Approval of United States President Barack Obama's handling of the war in
Afghanistan has soared since he announced a surge of 30,000 additional US
troops there, proving that Americans rally around their presidents in times of
military need. However, the numbers also suggest a fundamental misunderstanding
of a "flimsy" commitment to withdraw by mid-2011. (Dec
9, '09)
Obama treads Soviet road out of
Kabul
As world capitals react to United States President Barack Obama's Afghan
strategy, Moscow will find parts of the US strategy reminiscent of the Soviet
approach during its own 1980s Afghanistan end game. The Russians may also
realize that if the US can abandon its "lone ranger" approach, Washington may
succeed where the Kremlin failed. - M K Bhadrakumar
(Dec 7, '09)
War pitch belied by Taliban-al-Qaeda
strife
One of the main justifications for President Barack Obama's surge of 30,000
troops into Afghanistan was that they were necessary to prevent the Taliban
from giving new safe havens to al-Qaeda. Yet according to analysts specializing
in Afghanistan, there is evidence of fundamental conflicts between the
interests of the Taliban and those of al-Qaeda. - Gareth Porter
(Dec 7, '09)
US takes hunt for al-Qaeda to
Pakistan
The real focus of the United States' new Afghanistan policy - despite the
30,000 troop surge - is not that country, it is across the border in Pakistan,
an intermediary familiar with dialogue between the US and Afghan militants
says. The US aims to concentrate on al-Qaeda. Once that group is fatally
weakened, Washington believes, the way will open to a negotiated settlement in
Afghanistan. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Dec 4,
'09)
DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
Meet the commanded-in-chief
United States President Barack Obama chose as advisors a crew who had never
seen a significant change and still can't. This stale crew has ensured that
Afghanistan, the first of George W Bush's wars, is now truly Obama's war; and
the news came directly from West Point, where the president surrendered to his
militarized fate. - Tom Engelhardt (Dec 4,
'09)
Baghdad struggles over banned books
Iraq's illegal book publishers are thriving. Police estimate at least 13
printing presses publish illegal materials in the western province of al-Anbar,
a former stronghold of insurgents influenced by al-Qaeda. It's a market Baghdad
wants to stamp out, as the illicit books often promote militant ideology. - Uthman
al-Mukhtar (Dec 4, '09)
Beijing broods over its arc of anxiety
Through some combination of Pashtun insurgency and rebellion by Pakistan's
military against the strategy of the United States, the pro-Washington
government in Afghanistan is destined to be replaced amid an anti-Indian
rollback. This will be an extremely welcome development for Pakistan and its
ally, China. - Peter Lee (Dec 3, '09)
Obama rings the curtain on Pax
Americana
The most profound part of President Barack Obama's new strategy on Afghanistan
is that it bids farewell to the neo-conservative agenda for United States
foreign policy. Obama has thrown out of the window the baggage of regional
initiatives, international conferences and grand bargains, and zeroed in on the
heart of the matter - Afghan people view the Americans as occupiers and it is
time to consider an exit strategy. - M K Bhadrakumar
(Dec 3, '09)
Iran left out in the cold
Notably absent from President Obama's Afghan speech this week were references
to other stakeholders in the region - especially Iran. Apart from the role
Tehran can play regarding security issues, as long as the bulk of the Afghan
drug trade passes through Iran, the country can't afford to sit idly by. - Kaveh
L Afrasiabi (Dec 3, '09)
Pakistan at odds with Obama's vision
United States President Barack Obama's troop surge in Afghanistan is primarily
aimed at tightening the noose around the Taliban and al-Qaeda before opening
dialogue with the Taliban. Implicit in the plan is the cooperation of Pakistan.
In that country, though, an increasingly proactive military has charted a
course that could severely undermine Obama's grand designs. - Syed Saleem
Shahzad (Dec 2, '09)
THE ROVING EYE
Vietnam-lite unveiled
President Obama took pains in his strategy speech on Tuesday to distance his
new Afghan policy from the traumas of the Vietnam War, but there are signs that
his "war of necessity" is inviting history to repeat itself. Costing trillions
of dollars, the surge will see occupation troops next year reach the peak level
of the Soviet occupation. Still, it's great news for the Pentagon and its
agenda of full spectrum dominance. - Pepe Escobar
(Dec 2, '09)
The back door is left open
Providing a textbook demonstration of how the national security apparatus
ensures that its preference on issues of military force prevail in the White
House, President Obama has made a case to send 30,000 more troops to
Afghanistan. But in playing down the link between the Taliban insurgency and
al-Qaeda, he's left himself room to maneuver out of the quagmire. - Gareth
Porter (Dec 2, '09)
Beware the winds of December
Slight but highly significant movements are taking place in the Middle East.
There's Turkey's shift in focus away from the United States and the European
Union, a weakening "southern tier" - Saudi Arabia and Egypt - and a growing
realization that US-led sanctions on Iran will fail. But the most significant
change will follow calculated new Israeli revelations regarding Syrian nuclear
projects. - Alastair Crooke (Dec 1, '09)
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ATol Specials
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Syed Saleem Shahzad reports on
the Afghan war from the Taliban side
(Dec '06)
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How
Hezbollah defeated Israel
By
Mark Perry and
Alastair Crooke
(Oct '06)
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Mark Perry and
Alastair Crooke
talk to the 'terrorists'
(Mar, '06)
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The evidence for and against Iran's alleged
nuclear weapons program
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Nir Rosen goes inside the Iraqi
resistance
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Nir Rosen rides with the 3rd
armored cavalry in western Iraq
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Islamism, fascism and
terrorism
by Marc Erikson
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For earlier articles go to:
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