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 War
and Terror
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January 2010
Terror comes at night in Afghanistan
One aspect of the United States' counter-terrorism war strikes fear into the
hearts of Afghans, especially in the south where the Taliban are strongest -
the special forces, often tattooed and bearded, who raid homes, invariably at
night. Suspects, including children, are then taken to secret military
detention centers from which there is no guarantee they will leave alive. - Anand
Gopal (Jan 29, '10)
Washington works the Af-Pak-India
triangle
In an effort to bring stability to South Asia, Washington continues to run from
pillar to post in Afghanistan, Pakistan and India. Even though a "trust
deficit" with Pakistan remains, US President Barack Obama has played his cards
cleverly with his surge and withdrawal strategy in Afghanistan, leading to
near-unanimous support for financial assistance at this week's London
conference. - Zahid U Kramet (Jan 29, '10)
Border breaches reveal Iran's reach
Iranian security forces are increasingly chasing smugglers deep into Iraqi
territory. Iraqi Kurdistan and Baghdad are bickering over who should take
action, while the infringements reinforce fears that Tehran is preparing to
fill a power vacuum in Iraq when the United States withdraws. - Neil Arun
and Shorish Khalid (Jan 29, '10)
Sanctions, regime change take
center stage
United States President Barack Obama's State of the Union address signaled that
Washington is set to take a more aggressive course on Tehran, with major
sanctions legislation highly likely. Meanwhile, calls for outright regime
change are growing louder, thanks to an unexpected change of heart by an
influential American analyst. - Jim Lobe (Jan
28, '10)
MIXED MESSAGES OVER BIN LADEN
Better alive than dead
The release of the latest audio 
message claimed to be from Osama bin Laden has got tongues wagging again as to
his status and whereabouts. The failure of technologically peerless American
intelligence to find any trace him for nine years leads to speculation whether
the United States is keeping bin Laden alive for strategic convenience. - Farooq
Hameed Khan (Jan 28, '10)
Troop surge 'supports peace deal'
For the first time, the commander of international forces in Afghanistan has
indicated that the United States will support moves towards a political
settlement between the government of President Hamid Karzai and the Taliban.
The counter-insurgency strategy is aimed at providing the time and space for
this to happen. - Gareth Porter (Jan 27, '10)
Iran waits in the wings
Whether or not Iran participates in the London meeting, it will continue to
press for a regional solution for Afghanistan, saying that the unilateral and
military approach is not the solution. Should this approach not work, there is
the likelihood of Tehran seeking cooperation with Pakistan's chief nemesis,
India. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Jan 27, '10)
Al-Qaeda's shadow over Taliban talks
The initiative to reconcile the United States and its allies with elements of
the Taliban is gaining momentum, with governments from Kabul to London to
Washington involved, as are the Pakistan military and former Arab jihadis.
Offers of integration into the Afghan political process will not extend to
anyone with links to al-Qaeda. This could prove a crucial issue, depending on
just how deep al-Qaeda's ties with the Taliban run. - Syed Saleem Shahzad
(Jan 26, '10)
The King of Spades finally falls
The execution of Ali Hassan al-Majid - "Chemical Ali" - on Monday helps to
paint Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki as a solid leader ahead of March's
elections; deadly bombings in Baghdad the same day point to the opposite.
Nonetheless, most Iraqis are relieved to see the "King of Spades" in the
infamous deck of cards of Saddam Hussein's leadership pay for his crimes. - Sami
Moubayed (Jan 26, '10)
INTERVIEW
NATO head says Taliban will not win
 Though
North Atlantic Treaty Organization secretary general Anders Fogh Rasmussen
acknowledges the importance of Afghanistan initiating the
reconciliation-and-reintegration process with the Taliban, he stresses that
international forces do not believe the Taliban will ever regain power in
Kabul. (Jan 26, '10)
US woos India back to the Bush era
In describing India as a future anchor of regional and global security and
United States-India ties as a "defining partnership for the 21st century" - as
well as offering support for Delhi's concerns with regard to Pakistan and
Afghanistan - US Defense Secretary Robert Gates used his visit to South Asia to
signal that Washington plans to revert to the George W Bush-era doctrine
regarding the potential of an unbound India. - M K Bhadrakumar
(Jan 25, '10)
Drone surge: Today, tomorrow and
2047
The Pentagon plans a 40-year surge to create fleets of ultra-advanced,
heavily-armed, increasingly autonomous, all-seeing, hypersonic unmanned aerial
systems. These badder, faster drones will be armed to the teeth and have the
capability to loiter overhead for days waiting for human targets. For United
States air chiefs, it's the stuff of dreams, for others, the stuff of waking
nightmares. - Nick Turse (Jan 25, '10)
Taliban buying guns from former
warlords
The Afghan government is growing concerned as evidence mounts that Taliban
insurgents are purchasing weapons - through seasoned smugglers - from their
former opponents: the warlords who controlled Afghanistan after the collapse of
the communist-backed regime in 1992. - Abdul Latif Sahak
(Jan 25, '10)
Iranian elephant in the Iraqi room
The disqualification of over 500 candidates - many of them Sunni - from Iraq's
March parliamentary elections has enraged Sunnis and even spurred the United
States to intervene (unsuccessfully). Given the involvement in the decision of
an extremist Shi'ite friend-turned-foe of the Americans, the circumstantial
evidence points to Iran orchestrating the move. - Sreeram Chaulia
(Jan 22, '10)
The curious case of Chemical Ali
Ali Hassan al-Majid earned the nom de guerre of Chemical Ali for unleashing the
worst chemical weapons attack on civilians in history, which killed more than
5,000 people in a day. As the military hitman for his cousin, Saddam Hussein,
Chemical Ali orchestrated the murder of some 100,000 Kurds in a single year.
Yet even as he finally faces the hangman's noose, he may have one last role to
play in Iraqi politics. - Charles McDermid and Rebaz Mahmood
(Jan 21, '10)
DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
Going rogue in combat boots
It's America, 2016, and angry and desperate veterans of the "war on terror"
have merged with the "tea bag" movement and other alienated groups to launch a
military coup reminiscent of events in post-World War I Germany. In that era,
as now in the United States, the German public saw its wealth and status
threatened by a great recession and war, and a militarized solution for "the
fatherland" soon became the most credible last resort. - William J Astore
(Jan 20, '10)
McChrystal's plan takes a Taliban
hit
The main focus of the plan of the top commander in Afghanistan, General Stanley
McChrystal, is to secure urban areas, with the aim of turning the public
against the Taliban while raising confidence in the ability of Afghanistan's
own security forces. The Taliban's brazen attack in Kabul on Monday strikes
directly at this. - Abubakar Siddique (Jan
20, '10)
Kabul strike hits peace plan hard
Monday's coordinated strike by Taliban gunmen and suicide bombers on government
buildings and a hotel in Kabul highlights the growing vulnerability of the
Afghan capital. It also may fatally undermine the government's latest plan for
the international community to reconcile with the insurgents.
(Jan 19, '10)
A fight against the odds
In 2001, George W Bush declared the United States was at war against al-Qaeda.
President Barack Obama claims the same group as the country's main enemy.
Al-Qaeda's shock troops in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, Yemen, Somalia and
North Africa, based on the best intelligence estimates available, add up to
about 2,100 fighters; the US has approximately 1.4 million active duty men and
women under arms. - Nick Turse and Tom Engelhardt
(Jan 15, '10)
India drives tribals into Maoist
arms
Tensions are on the rise in India's eastern state of Orissa, where police
continue to target tribals for alleged crimes against the state. The heavy
hand, though, is alienating these minorities and sending them into the waiting
arms of the country's Maoists - much to the delight of mining companies,
landlords and liquor mafias. - Sudha Ramachandran
(Jan 15, '10)
Pakistan's military makes a stand
The Pakistani army is expected to start operations soon in the North Waziristan
tribal area on the border with Afghanistan, as urged by the United States. The
military has, however, made it quite clear that it will strictly limit
operations to the hunt for high-profile al-Qaeda targets and their affiliates.
- Syed Saleem Shahzad (Jan 14, '10)
Hunt for al-Qaeda intensifies in
Yemen
The Yemeni government says that its offensive against al-Qaeda is succeeding,
as evidenced by the claimed killing of a top al-Qaeda commander on Wednesday.
But there are still growing calls in the United States for Washington to
consider its options in Yemen, including air strikes and clandestine
operations. - Brian M Downing (Jan 14, '10)
A killer blow against US-Iran ties
Iran was quick to accuse the United States and Israel over the assassination on
Tuesday of Massoud Ali Mohammadi, a Tehran University nuclear physicist.
Washington dismissed the accusations as "absurd", while the claims of
responsibility from a group that seeks to re-establish the monarchy are
dubious. Whoever the perpetrators, the killing sends a message that the forces
opposed to any breakthrough between the United States and Iran are formidable.
- Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Jan 13, '10)
Regime change in Tehran? Don't bet
on it
The dramatic images of protesters in Iran have convinced many in the West that
the post-election opposition movement is similar to the one that overthrew the
shah in 1979. This view is undermined by the movement's failure to attract many
segments of society, its lack of a great religious leader, and the likelihood
it would side with the government should Iran's sovereignty be threatened. - Dilip
Hiro (Jan 13, '10)
Kabul anxiously beckons Obama
Rather than focus on the war with the Taliban and al-Qaeda in Afghanistan, the
Barack Obama administration is lingering dangerously on its covert war of
attrition with President Hamid Karzai. Still livid with Karzai's defiance,
Washington is scrambling to wrest control of Kabul ahead of parliamentary
elections and an anticipated gravy train of lucrative nation-building
contracts. - M K Bhadrakumar (Jan 13, '10)
THE ROVING EYE
Empire reloaded
According to United States President Barack Obama, AfPak is still the epicenter
of al-Qaeda, but the Yemen chapter is a more serious problem. Thus comes into
play still one more rehash of the same old narrative: a fragile dictator,
Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh, needs America to defeat the terrorists. - Pepe
Escobar (Jan 12, '10)
Iran places trust in 'passive
defense'
Contrary to reports claiming Iran wanted to hide the existence of nuclear
facilities from the outside world, it actually wanted Western intelligence to
conclude that it was putting some of its key nuclear facilities deep
underground. Tehran believed it needed to convince United States and Israeli
military planners that, in the event of an attack, they wouldn't be able to
find and destroy a number of Iran's nuclear sites. - Gareth Porter
(Jan 12, '10)
Yemen left with little wiggle room
The Yemeni government is in a bind. If Sana'a doesn't break up al-Qaeda cells,
the likely United States military intervention would probably result in a
greatly expanded armed resistance. If the government casts too wide a net, it
risks tribal rebellion and other civil unrest. Either way, it would increase
support for extremist elements. - Stephen Zunes
(Jan 12, '10)
The shadow war in Afghanistan
In Afghanistan, the American military is only part of the story. There's also a
polyglot "army" representing the United States that wears no uniforms and
fights shape-shifting enemies to the death in a war of multiple assassinations
and civilian killings, all enveloped in a blanket of secrecy. - Tom Engelhardt
and Nick Turse (Jan 11, '10)
Bombs tarnish Malaysia's terror
record
The firebombing of Christian churches, in a clash of views over terms
applicable to a supreme being, has blemished Malaysia's record for being
comparatively free of terrorist attacks. The government's stance on such issues
may be fanning the flames. - Ioannis Gatsiounis
(Jan 11, '10)
General alert in Pakistan
An Indian general has raised a storm in Pakistan with comments on India's
military prowess with regard to Pakistan and China. Pakistan's chairman of the
Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee, General Tariq Majeed, in particular, has
responded sharply - much as he has done in calling for a realignment in
Islamabad's relations with the United States. - Syed Saleem Shahzad
(Jan 7, '10)
A fruitless search for al-Qaeda
The Ein Al-Hilweh Palestinian refugee camp in southern Lebanon is often accused
of harboring al-Qaeda and other jihadi groups. The dark and overcrowded
conditions, deteriorating public services and restrictions on movement do
create perfect conditions for a radicalization of disaffected elements there.
However, Palestinian "popular committees" that prevent penetration by radical
elements are for now keeping al-Qaeda out. - Mahan Abedin
(Jan 6, '10)
Russia, China keep toehold in Yemen
The failed Christmas Day airliner bombing attempt has underscored Washington's
commitment to poverty-stricken, al-Qaeda-infested Yemen, a "vital
counter-terrorism partner" of the United States. Yet Yemen’s
multimillion-dollar military modernization program is overwhelmingly centered
not on Washington, but on Moscow and Beijing. (Jan
6, '10)
Anwar al-Awlaki: Translator of
jihad
The plot to bring down Flight 253 over Detroit was part of al-Qaeda’s campaign
to shore up its profile in the United States. Central to this strategy is the
rise of Awlaki, a US citizen of Yemeni descent now based in that country, who
damaged his own reputation by praising the Fort Hood massacre.
(Jan 6, '10)
More doubts over Iran's 'nuclear
trigger'
A major British newspaper published leaked documents purporting to be
compelling evidence of an Iranian nuclear-weapons program, but problems in the
translation - and belated acknowledgements in the newspaper itself - have
damaged the credibility of this "evidence". - Gareth Porter
(Jan 6, '10)
Pakistan deals with its devils
While the United States obsesses over the "Haqqani network" and its eponymous
leader's sanctuary in Pakistan, Islamabad of necessity takes a different view,
and has its own devils to deal with - not least the Kashmir issue, ongoing
militant violence in its cities, and the lifting of an amnesty for government
leaders' past misdemeanors. - Zahid U Kramet (Jan
5, '10)
DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
The Year of the Assassin
Ten questions - which double as tips on what to look for in the coming year -
suggest just how much United States war efforts are likely to intensify in the
Middle East, Central and South Asia. As a starting point, will a new war front
open in Yemen? - Tom Engelhardt and Nick Turse
(Jan 5, '10)
US push feeds Yemen's gun culture
Following the Christmas Day attempt to destroy a trans-Atlantic flight, the
United States and Britain have closed their embassies in conflict-ridden Yemen,
where the alleged terrorist involved reportedly had links to an al-Qaeda group.
The downgrading in ties is belied by high levels of US military aid to the
Yemeni government. These are expected to rise over the next 18 months, while
the US may already be initiating a "low-level" war in the area. -
(Jan 4, '10)
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ATol Specials
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Syed Saleem Shahzad reports on
the Afghan war from the Taliban side
(Dec '06)
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How
Hezbollah defeated Israel
By
Mark Perry and
Alastair Crooke
(Oct '06)
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Mark Perry and
Alastair Crooke
talk to the 'terrorists'
(Mar, '06)
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The evidence for and against Iran's alleged
nuclear weapons program
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Nir Rosen goes inside the Iraqi
resistance
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Nir Rosen rides with the 3rd
armored cavalry in western Iraq
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Islamism, fascism and
terrorism
by Marc Erikson
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For earlier articles go to:
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