Asia Times Online :: War and Terror

War and Terror

March 2010

The opium wars in Afghanistan
From its roots in the CIA's covert battle against Soviet occupation in the 1970s, through decades of war that fertilized it, poppy cultivation has transformed Afghanistan into an opium-dependent state supplying 90% of the world's heroin. Support for a return to traditional agriculture can break the stranglehold - and be cheaper in every way than a military solution. - Alfred W McCoy (Mar 31, '10)

THE ROVING EYE
Black Widow riddle
If it was indeed the suicide bombs of Chechen widows that caused the death and carnage in the subway under the Moscow headquarters of Russia's security service, the women could have been avenging the killing of Chechen master ideologue, Said Buryatsky, rather than having any broader political or spiritual goal in mind. - Pepe Escobar (Mar 31, '10)

Obama imposing a Palestinian state
President Barack Obama's head-on collision with the Israeli government, coupled with his open support of a new, moderate and more efficient Palestinian leadership, has increased the likelihood that he might try to use Israel's dependence on the United States to force the Israelis to agree on a version of the Arab Peace Initiative. This is a strategic disaster for Israel. - Victor Kotsev (Mar 31, '10)

Pakistan roots to Moscow attack?
Monday's suicide attacks in the Moscow metro system in which at least 38 people were killed and 64 injured could have been planned and executed by people trained in Pakistan's tribal areas, jihadi circles in Pakistan believe. They claim that foreign fighters are being groomed by al-Qaeda for an offensive across Central Asia. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Mar 30, '10)

THE ROVING EYE
Iraq squeezed between US and Iran
Sectarianism is the only winner to emerge so far in post-election Iraq. As the struggle to form a ruling coalition pits United States-backed Iyad Allawi against Nuri al-Maliki, the Iran-aligned present prime minister, neither is likely to succeed. But one thing's certain: violence will erupt in the Sunni backlash if Allawi, whose coalition won the most seats for the National Assembly, fails to take power. - Pepe Escobar (Mar 30, '10)

Hidden costs of US's drone reliance
The United States' expansion of unmanned aircraft strikes in Pakistan has inflicted severe damage on the Pakistani Taliban. But drones have been less effective in Afghanistan. There, evidence shows that while drone strikes wear down the will of insurgents, they also give policymakers the illusion of quick, seemingly costless success. - Brian M Downing (Mar 30, '10)

Karzai's China-Iran dalliance riles Obama
Concern that Afghan President Hamid Karzai is steadily disengaging Afghanistan from the grip of the United States and seeking friendships with China and Iran prompted President Barack Obama's flying visit to Kabul on Sunday. What alarms Washington most is that China's position on Afghan national reconciliation fits Karzai's political agenda and also accords with Iran's interests. - M K Bhadrakumar (Mar 29, '10)

Pakistani Taliban ready for Osama's plan
Osama bin Laden's latest threat to kill Americans in retaliation for the execution of any al-Qaeda members could play out in Pakistan. The Pakistani Taliban, according to captured militants, are preparing for a string of high-profile abductions, with foreign diplomats among the targets. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Mar 29, '10)

AN ATOL SPECIAL REPORT
War and peace: A Taliban view

Pakistan and the United States are in the process of redefining their strategic relationship, at the heart of which is the war in Afghanistan. There is much talk of talks with the Taliban resistance, but it's all hot air, a senior Taliban official tells Asia Times Online. He says the Americans are not serious and that the recent arrests of Taliban commanders, far from isolating Mullah Omar, will only strengthen the Taliban leader's resolve to fight on. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Mar 25, '10)

THE ROVING EYE
Obama squeezed between Israel and Iran
Washington's schizophrenic reaction to the US-Israel "crisis" - a brief scolding followed by talk of an "unshakeable bond" and sanctions "that bite" for Iran, reveals the spat may be theater designed to obscure a not-so-subtle drive to attack Tehran. After all, Israel's powerful friends have determined the broad outlines of US policy in the Middle East for decades. - Pepe Escobar (Mar 25, '10)

Taliban cry foul over press curbs
The Taliban have objected strongly to the Afghan government's ban on live war coverage, calling it a flagrant violation of freedom of speech. Kabul says footage of attacks and the response of the security forces gives the Taliban a tactical advantage. - Abubakar Siddique (Mar 25, '10)

Home truths call for tough love on Israel
The conventional wisdom of Washington's unconditional support for Israel has been called into question as the rupture in relations shines a spotlight on the costs to America of maintaining a status quo that has failed to advance security in the Middle East. The origins of the peace process the US is now trying to resuscitate do not lie in the support for Israel that has been the norm over the past two decades; they lie in national interest-based tough love. - Tony Karon (Mar 24, '10)

Israel hovers between war and peace
Where Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stands at a critical juncture between possible peace with the Palestinians and possible war with Iran may become clearer during his talks in Washington. The US will not allow Netanyahu to dodge the question of Israel's border with a future Palestinian state. On Iran, Netanyahu has offered an ominous pointer. - Jerrold Kessel and Pierre Klochendler (Mar 24, '10)

US-Israel spat plants seeds of crisis
While Washington claims the harsher tone it has adopted over Israeli settlements in East Jerusalem is "paying off", Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has energized his supporters by painting himself as a victim of hatred and foreign-policy ineptitude at the hands of the Barack Obama administration. Many elements are now in place for the row to escalate into a larger crisis in relations, most likely - though not necessarily - triggered by a military flare-up between Israel and Iran. - Victor Kotsev (Mar 23, '10)

'Strategic depth' at heart of Taliban arrests
When the Taliban controlled Afghanistan, Pakistan achieved strategic depth, the elusive goal of a pliant buffer between India and Russia. The arrests of top Taliban leaders who were negotiating a settlement shows that Pakistan is determined to assert its influence and carve out a settlement that preserves the strategic imperative that Afghanistan represents. - Shibil Siddiqi (Mar 23, '10)

A spy unsettles US-India ties
A plea bargain between the Federal Bureau of Investigation and the United States spy who helped plan the 2008 terror attack in Mumbai means his role and links with Pakistani intelligence may be forever hidden from India. The chilling question at the heart of the case is whether the Barack Obama administration shared all "actionable intelligence" with Delhi over agent-turned-terrorist David Coleman Headley. - M K Bhadrakumar (Mar 22, '10)

Pakistan marches into Washington
Pakistan's army chief General Ashfaq Parvez Kiani is not the nominal head of a delegation now in the United States for ministerial-level talks, but he will be driving the agenda. Top-most in his mind is securing for Pakistan a favorable position in any Afghan settlement. Back home, Kiani will be keeping an eye on the re-emergence of former military dictator Pervez Musharraf. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Mar 22, '10)

Hezbollah: Craving war, not wanting it

"Hezbollah craves war but we do not want it. We do not want it but we crave it." So says Hezbollah secretary general Hassan Nasrallah. The apparent contradiction captures the essence of Nasrallah's primary conviction that while Israel cannot tolerate the repeated crossing by Hezbollah of successive military "red lines", Hezbollah will continue to do so. All that is left is a policy of staving off conflict for as long as possible. - Nicholas Noe (Mar 19, '10)

Hamas: Learning from mistakes
Hamas is taking a long hard look at its history, learning from both its successes and mistakes to chart a new course for the party and its top leadership. Poverty on the streets, an indifferent international community, all topped with a desire to rule, explain why the party that rules Gaza is wiser in 2010 than ever before. - Sami Moubayed (Mar 19, '10)

Checkered record for the world's policeman
Training national police forces has been a key dimension of United States power abroad since the Philippines and Haiti in the colonial era through to the Vietnam and Iraq wars and today in Afghanistan. The result has been a legacy of torture and terror as political adversaries were dehumanized and police forces devolved into brutal oppressors. - Jeremy Kuzmarov (Mar 17, '10)

Battle over Afghan peace talks intensifies
The apparent desire of United States President Barack Obama to immediately start talks with the Taliban places him at odds with his military leadership and the field commander in Afghanistan. Even if Obama prevails, whether Taliban leader Mullah Omar will be invited to the table is another matter entirely. - Gareth Porter (Mar 16, '10)

Say hello to Marjah ... or 'Little America'
It is no surprise the United States

rolled out its new Afghan strategy in the familiar and sympathetic environs of Helmand. Decades ago, American engineers built most of the province's capital city, as well as a network of irrigation and drainage canals to take water to scattered communities, including Marjah, scene of the offensive against the Taliban. - Peter Lee (Mar 16, '10)

SPENGLER
Obama in more trouble
than Netanyahu over Iran
If the Barack Obama administration attempts to punish Israel for doing what American public opinion seems to favor - striking Iran's nuclear program - then Obama is likely to pay the political price. The US administration is hamstrung by the investment it made in rapprochement with Tehran, which it hoped would become the pillar on which American regional policy would rest. (Mar 15, '10)

Pakistan sharpens its focus on militants

General Ashfaq Parvez Kiani, the chief of Pakistan's army staff and a key ally of the United States, is due to retire in a few months, but he will remain very much a part of efforts to break the back of the Taliban in Afghanistan and militants in Pakistan. The plan is to create a post that would give him unprecedented control over all three branches of the service. For the militants, with a spate of attacks, it's business as usual. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Mar 15, '10)

Iran's spies show how it's done
Iran's capture of its most wanted man, Abdulmalik Rigi, is a setback for the subversion efforts of the United States in Iran's southeast. The seamless apprehension of the Jundallah leader also sends an unmistakable message that in the intelligence wars of the Middle East, Tehran has once again seized the initiative, and that it can strike against American secret agents operating in Pakistan and Afghanistan. - Mahan Abedin (Mar 12, '10)

A titanic power struggle in Kabul
Battle lines are being drawn for a power struggle over determining the shape of a settlement to Afghanistan's insurgency, with main players the United States and Britain, Pakistan, Iran and Afghan President Hamid Karzai jockeying for influence. The stakes are high for all protagonists up to and beyond the April 29 traditional Afghan tribal council that Karzai has called in a bid to be around to steer the transition to peace. - M K Bhadrakumar (Mar 12, '10)

Israel puts US on notice
News of Israel's plans to construct new housing in East Jerusalem shocked United States Vice President Joe Biden on his arrival in the country. The Israeli government claims the explosive timing was an unfortunate error; more likely it was a stern warning to Washington over Iran - hold Israel back from a strike and there will be consequences. - Victor Kotsev (Mar 12, '10)

The demise of a 'good-for-nothing bandit'

Abdulmalik Rigi's Jundallah militants are believed to have killed at least 150 civilians and police officers over the past four years. With Rigi now arrested, there is speculation his group will fall apart. For many people in Iran's Sistan and Balochistan province where most of Jundallah's operations took place, this would be a very welcome development. - Amineh Soghdi (Mar 12, '10)

India seeks a new direction

India's regional foreign policy, largely underscored by confidence in a relationship with the United States that has now been usurped by Pakistan, is at a crossroads. A high-level visit by Indians to Afghan President Hamid Karzai is recognition that new thinking has become necessary, though it might be too late as Karzai looks to forge an alliance with Islamabad. - M K Bhadrakumar (Mar 11, '10)

Iran wants help from a friend

During his flying visit to Kabul, President Mahmud Ahmadinejad trumpeted the fact that Afghan and Pakistani intelligence had cooperated with Iran in the capture of militant leader Abdulmalik Rigi. Iran wants to extend this multilateral cooperation to the fight against terrorism and drug trafficking. This would involve closer cooperation with the United States and foreign troops in Afghanistan, and therein lies the problem. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Mar 11, '10)

DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
Premature withdrawal in Iraq
A chorus of the usual Washington suspects is singing even louder for the Barack Obama administration to alter its plans to get all American troops out of Iraq by the end of 2011. Basing their arguments on their ability to divine the future, what they forget is that after the US invasion, Iraq descended into a monumental bloodbath - in Washington's presence. - Tom Engelhardt (Mar 11, '10)

Marjah fears return of warlords
Now that Afghan and Western

troops have pushed the Taliban out of the Marjah area, locals fear the return of the warlords who once terrorized them. One notorious strongman is already preparing to resume control. If he and others like him do regain influence, it could lead to the return of the insurgents. - Mohammad Elyas Daee and Abubakar Siddique (Mar 10, '10)

Marjah, the city that never was
Deemed by the United States military as a logistical hub of the Taliban in Helmand province, Marjah - "a city of 80,000 people" - was chosen to be the scene of a "large and loud victory". But it turns out Marjah isn't even a town, but rather one of the clearest and most dramatic examples of a war of perception as outlined in the US's counter-insurgency doctrine. - Gareth Porter (Mar 9, '10)

COMMENT
Alternative reading of Hamas murder
The assassination of Palestinian Mahmoud al-Mabhouh in January in Dubai was clearly a well-planned act, yet the calculated action inspired little more than expressions of "outrage" from much of the international community. Was it because the victim was Palestinian and the location of the crime an Arab country? - Ramzy Baroud (Mar 9, '10)

THE ROVING EYE
Oscar night in Baghdad
Hollywood's take on the Iraq War, The Hurt Locker, swept Sunday's Oscars. Who will emerge victorious from Iraq's elections is less clear. Washington favors former premier Iyad Allawi - once an intelligence asset - over the Shi'ite incumbent aligned with Iran, Nuri al-Maliki. But ultimately it seems that as long as Maliki can hasten the

Americans' exit, he will emerge triumphant.
- Pepe Escobar (Mar 9, '10)

Pakistan delivers but doubts remain
Pakistan has rounded up another al-Qaeda operative, although beyond the fact that he is senior there is dispute over his identity. Washington will be delighted, as this follows other recent high-profile arrests, but suspicion lingers that the generals in Pakistan will always put their own interests first. Something is being done about that. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Mar 8, '10)

Natural law brings AfPak crashing
The London conference on Afghanistan in January was a high-point for US special envoy Richard Holbrooke but AfPak diplomacy began crashing no sooner than the talking ended as Pakistan's capture of the Taliban's deputy leader stopped reconciliation with the US in its tracks. With Afghan President Hamid Karzai going his own way and Islamabad holding a trump card to deliver the Taliban to the negotiating table, the US's evolving policy is in a sorry state. - M K Bhadrakumar (Mar 5, '10)

BOOK REVIEW
Counter-insurgency,
then and now
A Question of Command
by Mark Moyar
Counter-insurgency thinking is once again in the limelight, just as it was 50 years ago, which is why this timely perspective will find audiences in and out of the military. The bulk of the book comprises nine case studies ranging from the American Civil War to the ongoing wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. The author has done a great deal of research, though points of disagreement are inevitable. - Brian M Downing (Mar 5, '10)

Heroin lab menace grows in Afghanistan

Heroin traffickers are expanding their refinery operations inside Afghanistan, with increasing volumes of precursor chemicals used to transform poppies into opiates being smuggled into the country. Gaps in intelligence and limited international expertise in detecting the chemicals make it harder for authorities to disrupt the opium supply chain. - Sananda Sahoo (Mar 4, '10)

Top US general blunders
When General Ray Odierno, the top United States commander in Iraq, requested to keep a combat brigade in northern Iraq beyond the August 2010 withdrawal deadline, the Pentagon was quick to play down the issue. Some damage has been done, though, amid fears that any US flip-flop on the pull-out timetable will have serious consequences in the US and in Iraq. - Raed Jarrar and Erik Leaver (Mar 3, '10)

India, Pakistan need a little help
Indian and Pakistan may have taken a step towards rapprochement, but without United States and Shanghai Corporation Organization involvement little will come of their high-level talks, given the hardened positions on both sides. Meanwhile, al-Qaeda will be working overtime to exert its own influence on the dialogue process. - Zahid U Kramet (Mar 2, '10)

Yemen in for a fight
Yemen's claim this week to have killed a separatist leader linked to al-Qaeda illustrates the government's ongoing efforts to use force to tackle unrest. If President Ali Abdullah Saleh is to get increased aid from the United States, though, he will also have to seek a political solution to the country's troubles. - Oliver Holmes (Mar 2, '10)

An AfPak star over Central Asia

United States envoy Richard Holbrooke stepped out of his AfPak region last week to visit Central Asia, where he soothed Georgian nerves and made the right noises in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. Holbrooke painted a futuristic security scenario in the nature of an al-Qaeda threat, while easing concerns regarding the US's expected reconciliation with the Taliban. - M K Bhadrakumar (Mar 1, '10)

Pakistan holds onto its Taliban
Islamabad may have reacted to the latest United States pressure by allowing US intelligence to expand its reach in Pakistan and by agreeing to joint operations to find high-level Taliban operatives. But by refusing to turn over Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, Islamabad is telling Washington that it will continue to rely on the Taliban as the best guarantee of Pakistani influence in Afghanistan. - Gareth Porter (Mar 1, '10)

Afghan police still out of step
United States government agencies

are asking why, after US$7 billion has been spent on training and salaries, Afghan police are still widely considered corrupt and inefficient. In particular, the State Department is accused of failing to oversee private contractors involved in training, and there are questions as to why there is a severe shortage of equipment. - Pratap Chatterjee (Mar 1, '10)

February 2010

ATol Specials

Syed Saleem Shahzad reports on the Afghan war from the Taliban side
(Dec '06)


		How Hezbollah defeated Israel By Mark Perry and Alastair Crooke (Oct '06)

Mark Perry and
Alastair Crooke
talk to the 'terrorists'
(Mar, '06)

The evidence for and against Iran's alleged nuclear weapons program

Nir Rosen goes inside the Iraqi resistance

Nir Rosen rides with the 3rd armored cavalry in western Iraq

Islamism, fascism and terrorism

by Marc Erikson

For earlier articles go to:

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