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 War
and Terror
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July 2010
The end of (military) history
War as a viable instrument of statecraft is headed for the dustbin of history.
This does not mean the end of war itself and certainly not of global violence,
but of a Western faith in the efficacy of force, of war as "a viable instrument
of statecraft", and with it of a belief in big victory and military dominance.
- Andrew J Bacevich (Jul 30, '10)
Plan B for Afghanistan
The United States could carry on fighting an increasingly problematic war in
Afghanistan against the Taliban, planning for a withdrawal that might be
endlessly delayed, or it could consider another option. The US and its allies
could pull out from the Pashtun regions in the south and east and concentrate
on political and economic development in the northern areas, where the
insurgency is weak and anti-Taliban sentiment is strong. - Brian M Downing
(Jul 28, '10)
Thousands of reasons to leave
 The
many thousands of leaked United States military documents concerning the war in
Afghanistan support the view of insufficient American and allied forces
fighting a capable enemy on its home ground and a Pakistan positioning itself
for the inevitable outcome. While this reality is not shocking or new, the
documents do make the most powerful case yet for withdrawal from Afghanistan
sooner rather than later. - George Friedman (Jul
28, '10)
DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
The opposites game
The Pentagon will buy some Russian, not American, helicopters so that special
forces can "cloak" the fact they are American. No congressional representatives
have gotten upset; no pundits have written editorials; and no reporters have
yet followed it up. Historically, imperial powers consider every strange thing
they do more or less the norm. For a waning imperial power, however, such an
attitude has its own dangers. - Tom Engelhardt
(Jul 28, '10)
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Pakistan has its own battle to fight
The leaked classified United States military documents that point to Pakistan's
links to the Taliban are significant even though the news is not particularly
new. They come at a juncture when the lines in Pakistan are clearly drawn
between militants and the military, and any misunderstanding between Islamabad
and Washington will only benefit the militants. - Syed Saleem Shahzad
(Jul 27, '10)
Leaks make war policy vulnerable
The impression given by leaked United States military documents of Pakistani
double-dealing for the Taliban exposes one of the Barack Obama administration's
greatest political vulnerabilities since it bears on worries about whether
there is any hope for US military success in Afghanistan. Pakistan's
long-standing association with the insurgency is not going to change. - Gareth
Porter (Jul 27, '10)
Obama's Afghanistan strategy under
siege
Leaked military documents may deepen war-weariness in the United States that is
reflected in the American public's dislike of the US's current nation-building
strategy in Afghanistan. Disunity is also rife among the US foreign policy
elite over what is to be done to pull out. - Jim Lobe
(Jul 27, '10)
Turkey means business in Kurdistan
Turkish businesses are ubiquitous in Kurdish northern Iraq. While Ankara's
drive to become a powerful trading nation could explain it, the plethora of its
companies attests to other motives; namely, the desire to turn trade into
political leverage to keep Iraqi Kurdistan in check, and in turn elicit its
help in Turkey's long-running fight against Kurdish rebels. - Justin Vela
(Jul 22, '10)
Pakistani Taliban widen jihad
 Various
groups of the Pakistani Taliban have an interest in attacking the
Jamaat-i-Islami Islamist political party. It is a safe bet, however, to believe
that the followers of Sufi Mohammad want to take their long-delayed revenge. In
this intense sectarian atmosphere, other groups would happily follow the lead.
- Arif Jamal (Jul 22, '10)
DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
Disasters of war
A backlash in the United States 
over rules of engagement introduced by now-discredited war commander in
Afghanistan General Stanley McChrystal has focused on soldiers being
"handcuffed by the chain of command". Washington and the US's leading generals,
meanwhile, seem oblivious to the consistent failure of counter-insurgency
warfare, from Napoleonic times to conflicts in Algeria and, of course, Vietnam.
- Tom Engelhardt (Jul 21, '10)
The spotlight falls on Hezbollah
As speculation intensifies that Israel is preparing to attack Iran's nuclear
facilities, former US ambassador Daniel Kurtzer argues that a conflict with
Hezbollah in Lebanon over its increasingly potent missile arsenal could be used
by Israel as cover for striking Iran. Washington's capacity to prevent such a
war, he says, is limited. - Jim Lobe (Jul 21,
'10)
Burning issues in troubled
Balochistan
The vast Balochistan region that 
spans Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran is characterized by extremist groups,
secessionist movements, poverty and oppression. In the Pakistani section, armed
dissidents have launched their fifth rebellion in the country's 63-year
history. Islamabad will move to crush them because the territory is an
important sanctuary for the Taliban, which it supports as a hedge against
Indian influence in Afghanistan. - Abubakar Siddique
(Jul 21, '10)
Amiri to CIA: Iran had no bomb program
Reports that Iranian scientist Shahram Amiri provided the United States with
intelligence on covert Iranian nuclear weapons work were shaped by Central
Intelligence Agency officials doing their best to "burn" Amiri by
characterizing him as a valuable long-term intelligence asset. CIA sources
familiar with the case say he actually told his handlers there was no weapons
program. - Gareth Porter (Jul 20, '10)
Tension ramped up a notch in
Pakistan
There are indications that al-Qaeda and militants in Pakistan plan to move from
targeted attacks to a broader guerrilla war, similar to the one that was waged
in Iraq. At the same time, news that vital police armaments - many funded by
the United States - are being compromised in the tribal areas will not make the
Pakistani authorities or the Americans sleep any easier. - Syed Saleem Shahzad
(Jul 20, '10)
Jihadis set to spill over into
Kashmir
India and Pakistan's failure to resolve their differences over Kashmir, and
renewed violence there, mean the issue will continue to be a lightning rod for
the international jihadi movement. Stalemate in bilateral talks has given
momentum to jihadi plans to infiltrate the bitterly disputed territory, from
where al-Qaeda-linked groups can secure "strategic depth" with heightened
terror tactics in India. - Zahid U Kramet (Jul
20, '10)
Amid war talk, arms buildup
continues
Talk of an Israeli strike against Iran won't go away, despite the latest rounds
of sanctions placed on Tehran aimed at avoiding just such an offensive. In
Lebanon meanwhile, where Israel still has unfinished business, Hezbollah is
reported to be acquiring a large number of game-changing missile launchers. - David
Moon (Jul 19, '10)
Iran blames US for mosque attack
After at least 30 people were killed at a Shi'ite mosque in the latest in a
series of bloody attacks, Iran pointed the finger at US backing for Jundallah,
the Sunni group that claimed responsibility for the double bombing. United
States officials have long denied Washington supports the group. To some
analysts, their denials are unconvincing. - Jim Lobe
(Jul 19, '10)
US puts a stop to hyphenation
It is time for India to stop viewing its ties with China and Washington through
the prism of Beijing and Washington's relationships with Pakistan. Islamabad's
centrality to the US foreign policy calculus means that it is no longer the
case that whatever China does in Pakistan is with an ulterior motive against
India. - M K Bhadrakumar (Jul 16, '10)
Pakistan cracks the whip
Despite warnings from its intelligence agency, Pakistan has begun a
country-wide crackdown on extremist religious organizations and banned jihadi
groups. A similar initiative in 2004-2005 led to a wave of militants joining
the Afghan Taliban, an event that significantly contributed to the Taliban's
revival. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Jul 15, '10)
AFGHANISTAN: SHOT ON FILM
Stalemate at Camp Victory
Camp Victory directed by Carol Dysinger
Afghan patriot General Fazalulin Sayar's forlorn attempts to turn ragged
recruits into a force capable of fighting the Taliban illustrate the difficulty
of the US's counter-insurgency strategy in Afghanistan. Building a national
military is a heavy task, as the battle record of the commander's apathetic
troops in this newly released film shows. - Hannah Gurman
(Jul 15, '10)
Lessons to learn in Obama's 'other' war
As United States President Barack Obama grapples with chaos in Afghanistan amid
incessant bloodshed and fractious politics, he might look wistfully to Iraq,
home of America’s "other" war. Grounds for optimism about Iraq are stronger,
but only because the US drew a definite timeline for a combat mission now
ending - and let go of trying to exert control. - M K Bhadrakumar
(Jul 14, '10)
Rules of engagement bear fruit
The number of Afghan civilians killed in US air strikes fell by half in the
first six months of 2010, while Taliban-inflicted civilian casualties remained
high. A proposed loosening of the US's stricter rules of engagement would
reverse this trend, and fatally undermine American efforts in Afghanistan and
in the wider Islamic world. - Philip Smucker (Jul
14, '10)
Rumblings rise between Hezbollah,
Israel
Increased tensions between United Nations peacekeeping forces and Hezbollah
supporters in southern Lebanon have Israel on edge, ready to defend its
northern border should hostilities break out. The unrest, though, could be more
about Tehran warning Israel, through its Hezbollah proxy, not to attack Iran. - Mel
Frykberg (Jul 13, '10)
PKK muddies Turkey's waters
The outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party 
has stepped up attacks on Turkish security forces in response to a police
crackdown on its support bases in city centers. At a broader level, the
increase in violence is part of a strategy to bring Turkey into confrontation
with the European Union. - Emrullah Uslu (Jul
13, '10)
DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
Afghan success could be worse than
failure
What if, against all odds, General David Petraeus succeeds in Afghanistan and
returns to a hero's welcome? Would that actually be good news, given that the
United States would only have minimal control of the world's second-most
corrupt and fifth-poorest country, the planet's premier narco-state, and that
the "war on terror" would be far from won? - Tom Engelhardt
(Jul 13, '10)
Al-Qaeda aims to cash in on
Kashmir
Al-Qaeda is watching the outbreak of unrest in Indian-administered Kashmir with
keen interest, seeing it as a golden opportunity to hijack Pakistan's "bleed
India" operations. The aim is to start a pattern of terror attacks that will
initiate a low-intensity insurgency in India's heartlands, including the
Kashmir struggle, and ultimately derail all regional peace efforts initiated by
the United States. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Jul
12, '10)
Rage of a lost generation
While the army has been sent into Srinagar to act as a "deterrent" to
stone-throwers, the street protests cannot be blamed solely on separatists
fomenting revolt. There is a depth of discontent, especially among the youth, a
generation that has known nothing but a coercive apparatus and election
promises that have brought them no hope, no jobs and no future. - Sudha
Ramachandran (Jul 12, '10)
Hawks sharpen claws for Iran strike
Washington's old Iraq War hawks appear to be preparing the ground for a new
autumn campaign to rally public opinion behind military action against Iran.
Some hardliners say six months is all that will be needed to determine that
sanctions have not quelled Tehran's alleged nuclear ambitions, adding that few
in the Arab street would protest any potential strikes. - Jim Lobe
(Jul 12, '10)
US pressure on Pakistan off-target
Senior United States officials were in Islamabad this week to put pressure on
Pakistan to crack down on jihadi groups based in the cities, fearful of their
links to possible attacks in the US and Europe. Pakistan has a lot to lose if
it acts, while the real threat lies far away in the mountains. - Syed Saleem
Shahzad (Jul 9, '10)
Operation enduring war
The United States accepts a persistent state of war in fear of appearing weak,
while the detachment of modern warfare has fed a militarization of American
society. As difficult to contain as an oil spill, the US's enduring fascination
with war can only end with a rejection of the idea that it is seductive, along
with an end to the constant doomsday scenarios. - William J Astore
(Jul 9, '10)
Afghan probe excluded key witnesses
Eyewitnesses who saw US troops digging bullets out of the bodies of two Afghan
mothers and a teenage girl after a botched Special Operation Forces raid in
February were not interviewed in a follow-up investigation ordered by General
Stanley McChrystal. - Gareth Porter and Ahmad Walid Fazly
(Jul 7, '10)
Al-Qaeda's new man eyes Pakistan
Al-Qaeda's latest number three and chief of Afghan operations, Egyptian Sheikh
Fateh al-Misri, is new to the group, although he has spent the past several
years earning a formidable reputation fighting in Afghanistan. His focus will
now also be on Pakistan, where last week's suicide attacks on a Sufi shrine
have opened opportunities. - Syed Saleem Shahzad
(Jul 7, '10)
THE ROVING EYE
'Surge' smoke follows Petraeus to
Afpak
As General David Petraeus, the mainstream US media's new armored Messiah, takes
command in Afghanistan, the myth of his "successful surge" in Iraq could not
but linger. Anyone who buys the Pentagon's spin and believes the same conquest
will happen in the Pashtun south and southeast of Afghanistan must have smoked
Hindu Kush's finest. - Pepe Escobar (Jul 2,
'10)
Counter-insurgency down for the
count
The United States' Afghanistan strategy isn't working, which raises several key
questions. Why does President Barack Obama fire a failing general but cling to
his failing war policy? And if nothing much is working, why does it still go on
non-stop? It's because Afghanistan has become an ill-oiled war machine
generating ever-more incentives for almost everyone involved - except ordinary
Afghans. - Ann Jones (Jul 2, '10)
Peace sacrificed in Pakistani
shrine attack
The twin suicide attacks on a Sufi shrine in the Pakistani city of Lahore that
killed more than 40 people leave the authorities little alternative but to
crack down on al-Qaeda-linked Punjabi militants. The chaos this will cause -
which is why it has not already happened - could sound the death knell for the
efforts of the United States to start a dialogue process with the Taliban. - Syed
Saleem Shahzad (Jul 2, '10)
 BOOK
REVIEW
Inquest of a defeat
The Tiger Vanquished
by M R Narayan Swamy
The world's most renowned authority on Sri Lankan Tamil militancy has plugged
the gaps in understanding of the fall of an organization whose birth and
maturity he chronicled in two earlier bestselling books. He now explains the
crucial mistakes the Tigers made that allowed three decades of war finally to
be brought to an end with their defeat. - Sreeram Chaulia
(Jul 2, '10)
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ATol Specials
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Syed Saleem Shahzad reports on
the Afghan war from the Taliban side
(Dec '06)
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How
Hezbollah defeated Israel
By
Mark Perry and
Alastair Crooke
(Oct '06)
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Mark Perry and
Alastair Crooke
talk to the 'terrorists'
(Mar, '06)
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The evidence for and against Iran's alleged
nuclear weapons program
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Nir Rosen goes inside the Iraqi
resistance
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Nir Rosen rides with the 3rd
armored cavalry in western Iraq
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Islamism, fascism and
terrorism
by Marc Erikson
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For earlier articles go to:
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