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THE ROVING EYE
As alliances shift, Iran wins - again
The George W Bush administration promoted a Turkey-Israel axis, a Sunni Arab
"axis of fear" and then a Saudi-Israeli nexus, always trying to isolate Iran.
None of these concoctions has worked, and there are even hints that Washington
and Tehran have concluded a secret deal brokered by Saudi Arabia to hammer out
contentious issues. This might be fanciful, but the bottom line is that Iran
sees itself as the ultimate victor of the US war on Iraq. - Pepe Escobar
(Mar 6, '08)
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Iran-Iraq ties show US the way
Tehran's enormous influence in Iraq is there to stay, given Iran's proximity
and religious and historical connections, highlighted by President Mahmud
Ahmadinejad's recent visit. This leaves the US with little choice but to adjust
its anti-Iran policy to accommodate Iran's regional clout. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi
(Mar 6, '08)
INTERVIEW
Anwar Ibrahim
Anwar to Abdullah: It's nothing
personal
Since his release from prison on politically motivated charges, Malaysian
opposition icon Anwar Ibrahim has refashioned his image as a pious crusader for
social justice and racial equality. Critics say Anwar simply tells people what
they want to hear, but the veteran politician tells Ioannis Gatsiounis he's
matured after his time in the political wilderness and he's fed up with what he
sees as the ruling government's incompetence. (Mar
6, '08)
Lee begins his North Korean gambit
New South Korea President Lee Myung-bak faces important decisions about how to
approach Pyongyang and its nuclear weapons program. A critic of the engagement
policy of his predecessors, he's pushing his own "Vision 3000". But he risks
slowing down the peace process because it might be excessively expensive to
implement. - Leonid Petrov (Mar 6, '08)
A blow to the Korean soul
It was with much horror and deep shame that South Koreans watched their
610-year-old "National Treasure Number One", Namdaemun (Great South Gate), burn
to the ground last month. The venerable edifice was for many the embodiment of
the spirit of the Korean people, and the resulting national trauma says much
about the psychology of what the Korean nation has been, how it views itself
today and how it aspires to seen by the outside world. - Sung-Yoon Lee
(Mar 6, '08)
Swansong visit for UN's
Myanmar envoy
The United Nations special envoy to Myanmar, Ibrahim Gambari, has begun a third
visit to the country to discuss the military regime's newly announced plans for
political change. The indications are, though, that it will be his last visit.
While Gambari does not see failure to bring about change as an option, the
generals have a very different view. - Larry Jagan
(Mar 6, '08)
SPEAKING FREELY
Don't be lazy, snooze at work
Asia's culture of napping has reached a new level in China, where the state has
authorized sleeping on the job, at least for a little while. It's time to wake
up to the age of the "cubicle nap" and experts say the results are eye-opening.
Increased productivity, safety and morale surely put to bed any Western notions
of the dangers of a work-day doze. - Matt Young
(Mar 6, '08)
THE SUBPRIME ICEBERG
A year later, the band plays on
A year after the subprime crisis came to public attention, the rot in the
financial system continues to spread, leaving the US Federal Reserve with
at least one very important question to answer - should it come directly to the
rescue? As the Fed and other actors dance the subprime twostep, the tune is
reminiscent of the music on the Titanic as the lifeboats sailed away. - Julian
Delasantellis (Mar 5, '08)
Pakistan's grand bargain falls
apart
Pakistan has no option, given pressure from the United States, but to continue
military operations against Taliban and al-Qaeda militants in the tribal areas.
Yet under a scheme devised by the new top brass, the militants were to be given
an easy ride as long as they retreated to remote border areas. Militants,
initially receptive, have shown through a spate of suicide attacks on the
military in cities across the country that they are having grave second
thoughts. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Mar
5, '08)
 CAMPAIGN
OUTSIDER
Mud flies, Clinton wins
On the night John McCain made it official as the Republican presidential
nominee, Hillary Clinton saved her campaign for the Democratic nod by doing
McCain's dirty work. (Mar 5, '08)
Muhammad Cohen puts the US presidential campaign into sharper
focus from afar.
Iran's gas: China waits as India
wavers
 The
possibility of India buying Iranian gas by way of a pipeline running through
mutual neighbor Pakistan has been a talking point for the past decade. Yet as
Islamabad and Tehran prepare to sign a gas purchase agreement this month, India
is holding back amid security concerns and US disapproval of the plan.
Energy-hungry China may seize the opportunity. - Siddharth Srivastava
(Mar 5, '08)
 ASIA
HAND
Mixed
reviews for
Thai capital controls
Thailand's new government, which this week removed capital controls imposed by
its military-led predecessor, seems willing to sacrifice exports for more
domestic demand-led economic growth. Overlooked are other capital controls
still in place, while inflation and the prospect of an ever-stronger currency
will challenge policymakers. - Shawn W Crispin (Mar
5, '08)
Rice now too costly to give
away
Global rice prices, driven by the sagging US dollar, fuel costs and China's
increasing food demands, soared 40% last year just as the world's rice stocks
hit a 20-year low. Even international aid agencies are struggling to afford
sufficient quantities of rice for the impoverished people they're meant to
serve in Asia. (Mar 5, '08)
UN deepens the Iran nuclear
crisis
The third round of United Nations Security Council sanctions now hanging over
Iran's head in connection with its nuclear program is the harshest yet. Tehran
has dismissed the measures as "legally defective". But with US and French ships
in the Persian Gulf poised to carry out the interdiction of vessels suspected
of carrying nuclear cargo to and from Iran, the stage is set for the next
chapter - physical confrontation. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi
(Mar 4, '08)
Sunnis make merry on US's dime
Iraq's Sunni-dominated Awakening Councils, bankrolled by the United States,
have certainly blunted al-Qaeda, but they continue attacks on US and Iraqi
forces. The Sunnis, using a "fight, bargain, subvert, fight" approach, are all
the while working towards their ultimate goal of the complete withdrawal of US
troops and reducing the power of the Shi'ite-dominated government. - Gareth
Porter (Mar 4, '08)
SPEAKING FREELY
The 'rape' of Okinawa
Another month, another suspected rape incident involving a US soldier on
Okinawa island in Japan. Both US ("regret") and Japanese ("unforgivable")
officials make the right noises. But until Tokyo questions why a large standing
army of Americans is still garrisoned on Japanese territory, the problem will
persist. - Chalmers Johnson (Mar 4, '08)
Pre-election hopes for Malaysian
opposition
The weekend's elections in Malaysia have been called the best chance the
opposition has had to weaken the ruling party's grip on power in at least a
decade. Economic and social problems have beset Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi,
but the opposition may struggle to convert popular discontent into votes. - Ioannis
Gatsiounis (Mar 4, '08)
Russia lays new tracks in Korean
ties
The new administrations coming into the Kremlin in Moscow and Seoul's
presidential Blue House, together with a new generation of leaders in
Pyongyang, can radically change the political climate in the region and help
resolve the peninsula's nuclear problem. - Leonid Petrov
(Mar 4, '08)
THE MOGAMBO GURU
A world without demand
The amount of money that has been lost in the derivatives business is
worrisome, as sales tumble 93% from the year before. Without demand, supply is
overwhelming, prices plummet, and without new derivative sales to finance the
existing clot of derivatives, things go from bad to worse!
(Mar 4, '08)
 SUN
WUKONG
Green whirlwind sweeps China
China's National People's Congress this week upgrades its State Environmental
Protection Administration into a mega-sized environmental ministry. This is
part of a green policy geared to strengthening the country's "toothless tiger"
laws. Whether other departments and provinces cooperate is another matter,
particularly when their own interests are at risk. - Wu Zhong
(Mar 4, '08)
The 'laptop of mass destruction'
The "laptop documents" - 1,000 pages of data allegedly stolen from an Iranian
computer - have been the US's hardest evidence of Iran's supposed intentions to
build a nuclear weapon and an obstacle to the International Atomic Energy
Agency declaring that Iran has resolved all questions about its nuclear
program. Now there are indications the documents were obtained from Israel's
Mossad via a terrorist organization. - Gareth Porter
(Mar 3, '08)
Iran makes its mark in Iraq
Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad is making the most of his red-carpet
treatment in Iraq, handing out platitudes as well as the offer of a US$1
billion loan. Baghdad's government needs all the support it can get, and plenty
comes from Tehran. What it does not need is Iran's backing of the
al-Qaeda-backed insurgency. But for Iran, this is a separate issue that has
everything to do with Afghanistan. - Syed Saleem Shahzad
(Mar 3, '08)
INTERVIEW
Let's talk about bombs
Matthew Bunn, non-proliferation expert
Given Iran's extended period of violating its nuclear safeguards agreement,
says US award-winning Bunn, many countries will probably not accept Tehran's
claim that all of the information that suggests weaponization activities is
fabricated and baseless. Nevertheless, there is still room to negotiate, he
tells Kaveh Afrasiabi. (Mar 3, '08)
 CHAN
AKYA
Dead dollar sketch
The demise of the world's reserve currency reads like a financial version of
the infamous Monty Python Dead Parrot sketch. The arguments of US dollar
supporters appear increasingly hollow. The implications are much more
geopolitical than merely economic. (Mar 3, '08)
 SPENGLER
Sing, o muse, the
wrath of Michelle
The release of Michelle Obama's undergraduate thesis from Princeton has
revealed more about the woman who could be America's First Lady. Complete with
rage and guilt, it is, among many things, a poignant cry from the heart of a
young black woman from a working-class Chicago home. It also furthers the
supposition that her wrath could keep her husband from the White House.
(Mar 3, '08)
Medvedev ready for his Russian
moment
 Judging
by his record, the presumptive next president of Russia, Dmitry Medvedev, can
be expected to pursue a concerted liberalization of politics as the next
logical stage in the country's evolution. He aims to make business in Russia
the most profitable in the world. And in foreign policy, the likely leitmotif
is that security will be enhanced when countries share risk - that is, the West
and Russia should cooperate. - Nicolai N Petro
(Feb 29, '08)
 SEX
IN DEPTH
Cell swingers in Cambodia
From university sweethearts married in Paris to kingpins in the brutal Khmer
Rouge regime in Cambodia, 82-year-old Ieng Sary and his wife Khieu Thirith, 75,
now bide their time in detention awaiting trial for crimes against humanity.
They're in separate cells, and Sary has requested conjugal visits. While the
two await an answer, they could reflect on one of the Khmer Rouge's practices -
separation of man and wife. - William Sparrow
(Feb 29, '08)
THE ROVING EYE
A long road from Kosovo to
Kurdistan
The embrace by Washington of Kosovo's declaration of independence has less to
do with democracy than with hard-nosed pragmatism. The US's biggest foreign
military base since the Vietnam War - Camp Bondsteel - is in Kosovo, and the
region will be home to a US$1.1 billion pipeline that will get oil from the
Caspian Sea ultimately to refineries in the US. Kurds in Iraq, believing Kosovo
to be a precedent for an independent Kurdistan, will be disappointed: the
US-sanctioned Turkish invasion of northern Iraq has seen to that. - Pepe Escobar
(Feb 28, '08)
IN THE DRAGON'S LAIR
US prowls for China in the
Philippines
With China fast becoming the US's greatest competitor, Washington
needs the Philippines more than ever. Not only is it ideally located, its
government has been far more willing than other Southeast Asian countries to
align itself with the demands of the US. Thus Washington is steadily
transforming and deepening its military presence and intervention in the
Philippines in preparation for any face-off with China. In return, Beijing is
aggressively courting Manila. - Herbert Docena
(Feb 27, '08)
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China
looks to
stamp duty cut
Pressure is building on the Chinese government to cut the stock trading stamp
duty as a means of injecting new life into a market that has slumped from the
record highs of last year. - Olivia Chung
Knit-picking threatens
Kashmir trade
Skilled artisans in Kashmir are trapped in a cross-border dispute over who
should be able to use the term pashmina for hand-made products using the
highly valued wool. The clash between Pakistan and India threatens to escalate
to other products. - Haroon Mirani
Delhi gasps amid
subsidized fumes
As India's farmers kill themselves in face of debts worth less than the price
of a new car, the government taxes the people's transport - the bus - more than
automobiles. Meanwhile residents of the country's urban centers struggle to
breath increasingly polluted air - and look forward to buying one of the
world's cheapest cars.
Why the dollar is so cheap
When George W Bush was inaugurated in 2001, the euro was trading at 94 cents
and gold cost $266 an ounce. Now they are trading at $1.52 and $985 an ounce.
That is a plain vote of no confidence in the government's economic model, and
international investors are fleeing the dollar for the best available
substitute - the euro and gold. - Peter Morici
 Drunk
with absolute purchasing power
If people could buy oil with gold, the price would have been unchanged for 60
years! Now you see the beauty of gold as money; your purchasing power is
absolute! Prices never change! Now when will those suckers earning a measly 5%
interest on financing US spending sprees demand a yield that offsets inflation
... ?
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CREDIT BUBBLE BULLETIN
No simple repeat
of LTCM fiasco
The crisis at award-winning Peloton Partners highlights that this is no repeat
of the LTCM meltdown of 1998. The American economic rot goes far, far deeper.
Meanwhile, the Fed, blind to its impotence regarding risk asset prices, should
start attending to currency markets, where it might at least have some impact.
(Mar 3, '08)
Doug Noland reviews the previous week's events each Monday.
MARKET RAP
Beware the wings
of the butterfly
The fear that an American downturn will significantly hurt Asian corporate
earnings seems to have been at least temporarily overcome. Yet the future of
structured investment vehicles remains a threatening shadow that can engender
yet another crisis with incalculable effects far from the US.
(Feb 29, '08)
R M Cutler runs his eye over the ups and downs in the week's markets.
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I was shocked by the naivete in Chalmers Johnson's article
The rape of Okinawa, March 5. Mr Johnson seems mystified why there
would be US troops in Japan. Any Japanese can provide him with the reason in a
single word: China.
Daniel McCarthy
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to Letters to the Editor |
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Pakistan site swipe
exposes web fragility
Pakistan's efforts to prevent its citizens from viewing a YouTube video
affected the Internet far beyond its borders. No less worrying, the country's
censors indicate they have no inclination to prevent a repeat of the global
blackout.
Martin J Young
surveys the week's developments in computing,
gaming and gizmos.
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ATol Specials
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The
Gates
Inheritance
By
Roger Morris
(June '07) |
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Syed Saleem Shahzad reports on
the Afghan war from the Taliban side
(Dec '06)
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How
Hezbollah defeated Israel
By
Mark Perry and
Alastair Crooke
(Oct '06)
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Mark
Perry and
Alastair Crooke
talk to the 'terrorists'
(Mar '06)
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China:
The
Impossible
Revolution
By
Francesco Sisci
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The Coming
Trade War
By Henry C K Liu
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A series
by Henry C K Liu
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Sinoroving
Pepe Escobar in China
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Money, Power
and
Modern Art
A series by Henry C K Liu
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Andre Gunder Frank on Uncle Sam and his
shrinking dollar
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By Pepe Escobar with
photographs by Kevin Nortz
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Nir Rosen goes inside the Iraqi
resistance
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Nir Rosen rides with the US 3rd
Armored Cavalry in western Iraq
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permission.
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(Holdings), Ltd.
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