|
|
|
|
TAPI price deal close
All parties to the proposed TAPI gas pipeline from
Turkmenistan to India via Afghanistan and Pakistan may reach final agreement on
transit fees as early as next week, just as Russia's Gazprom looks set to quit
involvement in the remnants of Iran's pipeline to Pakistan. - Robert M
Cutler (May 17, '12)
Anti-China mood threatens
push
for Kyrgyz railway link
Kyrgyzstan's President Almazbek Atambaev is pushing to secure construction of a
long-touted railway running through his country and linking China to
Uzbekistan. He has little to offer Beijing, yet even that might be too much for
local Sinophobic groups, whoever their paymasters might be. - Fozil Mashrab
(May 16, '12)
Kazakh copper strike
not the end of the matter
The swift and peaceful end to a strike at Kazakhstan's largest copper mining
company demonstrates that lessons were learned from last year's violent oil
workers' clashes at Zhanaozen. Yet both disputes indicate the absence of a
comprehensive development program for the country's key industries. - Margarita
Assenova (May 16, '12)
Putin returns to the wild east
Russia's exploitation of natural resources in its far east is central to the
country's future wealth, yet President Vladimir Putin appears determined to
press ahead with policies that maintain the biggest obstacle to success -
Moscow's own inefficient and heavy handed state intervention in regional
development. - Yong Kwon (May 14, '12)
Nabucco project doubts grow
Hungary's reluctance to continue its involvement in the Nabucco pipeline - it
is one of six consortium members - further undermines the Caspian-to-Europe gas
project and boosts the prospects for Russia's rival South Stream pipeline. - Vladimir
Socor (May 14, '12)
Energy key to poor outlook for
Turkey
Turkey's angry response to a downward revision of its ratings outlook - "no one
can believe this", said Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan - recognizes the
compromised nature of ratings agencies but overlooks fragilities in the
economy, notably the high dependence on energy imports.
- Robert M Cutler (May 10, '12)
Russia warns Turkey over
Cypriot gas plans
Russia, keen to develop offshore gas around Cyprus and be involved in its
export, is prepared to risk its friendship with Turkey by warning Ankara
against pursuing its own offshore exploration in the area under armed
protection.
- Vladimir Socor (May 9, '12)
Azerbaijan's first family
strikes
gold under cover
Azerbaijani villagers distressed at their treatment at the hands of a British
company starting up a gold mine near their homes are looking for assistance
from President Ilham Aliyev, unaware that the company is a front for the
president's family interests. - Nushabe Fatullayeva and Khadija
Ismayilova (May 9, '12)
Russia tightens Ukraine bonds
Ukraine is seeking to issue rouble-denominated bonds to make it less reliant on
International Monetary Fund assistance and related reforms, signaling further
increased Russian influence as the West turns its back on the country. - Taras
Kuzio (May 8, '12)
'No biting the bear's sensitive
parts'
The Kremlin has its eyes peeled on protecting maritime traffic moving civil and
military cargo into Syrian ports, and preventing a Libyan-style regime change
under its watch. Moscow is unconcerned about what happens to Syrian President
Bashar al-Assad - trade and military investments, including the Russian naval
base at Tartus, are just too sensitive to leave exposed to events outside its
direct control. - John Helmer (May 8, '12)
Russia ups pressure on Caspian
pipeline
Azerbaijan and Turkey are opening up real possibilities for positive
developments in supplying Europe with gas from the Caspian region - all the
more reason for Russia to step up pressure to prevent Kazakh and Turkmen gas
joining the mix. - Stephen Blank (May 7, '12)
China sets out on Putin presidency
Li Keqiang, the likely next Chinese premier, received warm words from Moscow
during his mission to put relations in good stead for Vladimir Putin's imminent
return to the Russian presidency. The welcome won't mask the fact that while
both powers share reasons, such as Syria, to take a common stand, Putin won't
tilt at windmills that don't impede Russian interests. That opens an
opportunity for the United States to exert its influence on Asian affairs. - M K
Bhadrakumar (May 4, '12)
Oil growth eases Putin
presidency
Vladimir Putin takes over as Russia's president next week with the economy
looking stronger than earlier expected, but it remains overdependent on a high
global oil price and an extended European crisis would be damaging.
- Robert M Cutler (May 3, '12)
Russia firm on eastern boost
The Kremlin changeover on May 7 will not alter the Russian government's
determination to develop the far east of the country, with plans to spend
billions of dollars improving infrastructure and industry with the aim of
turning the region into a link between Europe and the booming Asia-Pacific. - Sergei
Blagov (May 3, '12)
China won't be frozen out of the
Arctic
Members of the Arctic Council are undecided on China's ambitions towards
permanent observer status, though Beijing will likely be the largest customer
for natural resources and new shipping lines that will emerge as the region
warms. Should the council deny entry, China will simply circumvent the ruling
to safeguard its economic interests in the North Pole. - Jian Junbo
(May 2, '12)
Obama has an Afghan game plan
Barack Obama's surprise visit to Kabul on Tuesday provides telling evidence
that he has a game plan for Afghanistan going into and beyond his bid to be
re-elected United States president. Everything in the strategy, including
renewed traction for closer ties with neighboring countries, is built around
the establishment of military bases in Afghanistan. To that end, talks with the
Taliban will continue, yet Pakistan remains the kingpin to the entire venture.
- M K Bhadrakumar (May 2, '12)
Uzbeks fear Angren revival
Uzbek President Islam Karimov's order to create a special industrial zone at
Angren, close to Tashkent, should bring new jobs to a former industrial center
that has declined since the fall of the Soviet Union. An expected mining
resurgence may also increase already grim pollution.
(May 1, '12)
Nazarbayev's free-trade goal
offers Central Asia a future
Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev's desire for a free-trade zone for
Central Asian is unlikely to see quick progress, but if Central Asian states do
not wish to fade again into the annals of history they should embark on genuine
regional integration. - Roman Muzalevsky (Apr
25, '12)
Yusufov fights to keep bid for
DEPA alive
Former Russian energy minister Igor Yusufov is appealing against his investment
vehicle, Fund Energy, being excluded from bidding for Greek gas utility DEPA.
Behind Yusufov is seen a "Plan B" by Russian gas giant Gazprom to get hold of
the company. - Robert M Cutler (Apr 25, '12)
Power nexus skews Kyrgyz dam
demand
The Kyrgyzstan government's ambitious hydropower development program on the Syr
Darya River has provoked strong opposition from downstream Uzbekistan.
Alongside actual energy concerns, the project is driven by interests of
national elites and the global politics of project finance, creating a logic
for dams that may exacerbate geopolitical tensions across the region. - Eelke P
Kraak (Apr 20, '12)
Anatolian gas pipeline may
expand fourfold
The Trans-Anatolian Gas Pipeline to transport fuel from Georgia to Bulgaria
across Turkey, its cost already escalating to US$8 billion, may be expanded
fourfold, giving new support to proposals to run gas from Turkmenistan under
the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan and onwards to Europe. - Robert M Cutler
(Apr 18, '12)
A fly in China's Russian ointment
With Russia-China strategic coordination at a high level, the energy deal
Russian state firm Gazprom has struck with Vietnam comes as a reality check to
Beijing. China has been made to feel insecure about Moscow's surge into the
Asia-Pacific and - as bad - a possible Russian-American entente cordiale. - M K
Bhadrakumar (Apr 16, '12)
Anatolia gas link wins backers
Interest is growing among Western gas producers in Azerbaijan, transit
companies and European importers in the Trans-Anatolia project for Caspian gas
to Europe, initiated as an Azerbaijani-Turkish project. - Vladimir Socor
(Apr 12, '12)
Vekselberg goes to London
Victor Vekselberg, owner of Russian conglomerate Renova Group, has filed claims
to the London Court of International Arbitration related to fellow oligarch
Oleg Deripaska's management of United Company Rusal. The Kremlin's go-ahead for
the claim to be heard in London is a harbinger of changes to come.
- John Helmer (Apr 10, '12)
Pepsico milk lead sours in
Russia
Danone of France and America's Pepsico are seeing their domination of Russia's
milk market evaporate at the edges from competition by small regional rivals,
whose products compete on price thanks to the addition of Southeast Asian palm
oil rather than the required butterfat. - John Helmer
(Mar 29, '12)
Tajikistan wary of Iranians
bearing gifts
During his visit to Tajikistan, Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad promised
his Persian-speaking "cousins" a range of grand projects, including a major gas
pipeline. The land-locked and economically struggling nation could do with the
assistance, but the secular leaders in Dushanbe have an underlying suspicion of
the clerical foundations of the Iranian regime. - Fozil Mashrab
(Mar 29, '12)
Nabucco pipeline takes another
twist
Plans to build the Nabucco pipeline transporting gas from the Caspian to Europe
have undergone yet another rewrite, with the integration of a connection
between Azerbaijan and Turkey - the Trans-Anatolia Gas Pipeline - into the
route. Vladimir Socor (Mar 29, '12)
Trans-Caspian pipeline
remains distant prospect
The European Union's goal of getting Central Asian gas directly is linked to
Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan agreeing on their Caspian Sea border, over
objections from Russia and Iran. Then there is the matter of European Union
funding - against Germany's wishes. It still looks a long wait.
(Mar 28, '12)
Black Sea sliver may decide
Nabucco fate
A sliver of territory on the maritime border between Romania and Bulgaria could
be decisive in deciding Russia's South Stream and the European Union's Nabucco
pipelines, two proposed and conflicting mega-projects to transport gas from the
Caspian region to Europe. - Vladimir Socor (Mar
28, '12)
Battle resumes for miner BC
Iron
A year after small Australian miner BC Iron saw off Hong Kong-listed Regent
Pacific, regulators are saying what they thought of the takeover bid.
Meanwhile, Chinese interests, Regent and Ukrainian metals magnate Gennady
Bogolyubov are competing for increased stakes and the shares are going strong,
even as ore prices slide. - John Helmer (Mar
27, '12)
 THE
ROVING EYE
Russia rules Pipelineistan
The European Union political "leadership" has gloriously sabotaged what it has
always billed as its most ambitious energy project, the Nabucco pipeline, by
caving in to US pressure. A certified winner in this complex Pipelineistan
battle is Turkey. But most of all Russia wins. - Pepe Escobar
(Mar 22, '12)
Russia's one-sided trade
affair
A 50% rise in Russia's exports to China last year furthered Moscow's goal of
higher trade with its fast-growing neighbor. Yet Chinese business interest in
the other direction barely exists, with investment halving in 2011 to only 0.5%
of China's total foreign investment in the period. - Sergei Blagov
(Mar 22, '12)
Western countries scramble for
Afghan exits
The continuing lull in US-Pakistan relations complicates the Afghan withdrawal
process for European forces, with Central Asian routes more expensive and
diplomatically complex than the Pakistani link closed over last November's
friendly fire incident. Anger at "negative acts" by US troops is also high
among US allies. - Fozil Mashrab (Mar 22,
'12)
The politics of Nowruz
Celebrations of Nowruz, the Persian New Year, are serious political business.
It has been banned by local strongmen, used as an opportunity to unite minority
groups and even as a point on which fundamentalist Shi'ite and Sunni Muslims
can agree. In no place is the politics of Nowruz more evident than in Iran. - Eugen
Tomiuc (Mar 22, '12)
Trans-Caspian pipeline pact
to energize EU gas project
Agreement by Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan to build a trans-Caspian gas pipeline
will help to catalyze implementation of the European Union's plans for a
Southern Gas Corridor to the region, even as reconfiguration of its Nabucco
pipeline project is already underway. - Robert M Cutler
(Mar 22, '12)
EU deals Gazprom a competition
setback
The European Commission has ruled that Nord Stream, the Gazprom-led consortium
whose pipeline runs Russian gas to Europe, must allow other gas suppliers to
share its capacities on German territory, overthrowing a previous exemption by
German regulatory authorities. - Vladimir Socor
(Mar 21, '12)
Afghan army far from fighting
fit
The Afghan National Army should total 195,000 soldiers by the end of 2013, a
number believed adequate to secure the country. However, widespread
absenteeism, corruption and drug abuse seriously undermine efficiency, while
infiltration by the Taliban remains an acute problem. - Charles Recknagel
(Mar 21, '12)
Mavrodi's Ponzi comeback
seeks financial apocalypse
Sergei Mavrodi, whose"MMM" financial pyramid cost millions of Russians their
savings in the 1990s, is broke and in prison for non-payment of small fine. He
is also planning a comeback, with an MMM part two. His goal? A financial
apocalypse, the destruction of the "unfair" global financial system. - Claire
Bigg (Mar 19, '12)
Romania joins big gas league
A natural gas strike in Romania's offshore sector of the Black Sea, with the
strong possibility of more to follow, has potential ramifications for the
entire Euro-Caspian energy complex, while forcing a rethink on calculations
around the European Union's Southern Gas Corridor.
- Robert M Cutler (Mar 16, '12)
Putin's return reverberates in
Korea
That Vladimir Putin rode to his presidential election victory on a wave of
anti-United States sentiment says much about his plans to reshape the Northeast
Asia power dynamic. As a confident Moscow reasserts itself against China and
the US, the Korean Peninsula will become the center of a contest for influence
and energy supplies. - Donald Kirk (Mar 9,
'12)
SPEAKING FREELY
How to not lose Russia
Some American praise for Russia's efforts to ensure the presidential election
proceeded freely and fairly could put relations on a positive trajectory.
Moscow's rising regional clout presents the opportunity for an equal
partnership, but Washington must first set aside its propensity for moralism
and respect the choice of the Russian people. - Nicolai N Petro
(Mar 9, '12)
THE ROVING EYE
Why Putin is driving
Washington nuts
A New World Order is a no-go for Washington's top bogeyman, back-to-the-future
Russian President Vladimir Putin. Good old-fashioned state sovereignty rules
his world. The Putinator will be ultra tough on all fronts, from closer
coordination with China, thwarting NATO bases in Afghanistan and ensuring Iran
is not attacked, and all points in between. That's enough to make
Anglo-American elites apoplectic. - Pepe Escobar
(Mar 8, '12)
Turkey is top priority for
Berdimuhamedow
Turkmenistan's President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedow made Anakara his first
overseas destination following his recent election victory, underlining the
important role Turkey now plays as a trading partner to the Central Asian state
while expanding links across a range of commercial sectors. - Robert M Cutler
(Mar 7, '12)
Gunvor joins refinery raids
Western Europe's financial-economic crisis exposes its oil-refining industry to
Russian acquisitions - with Gunvor, Rosneft, and Lukoil leading the latest
expansion into the region's refining sector. Both the strategy and the tactical
timing look auspicious. - Vladimir Socor (Mar
7, '12)
The India-Iran tunnel
The tough talk against Iran heard in Washington, Brussels and Tel Aviv is not
being echoed east of Chabahar, the Iranian port in whose future India is
heavily involved. In Beijing, Islamabad, Kabul - and New Delhi - the
discussions are about percentages and payments rather than strategic strikes
and sabotage. - Vijay Prashad (Mar 6, '12)
Afghan currency under attack
Afghanistan's currency is being undermined by counterfeit banknotes whose
quality makes them harder to identify than usual. Local officials see foreign
government involvement in the inflation-threatening scam. - Abdol Wahed Faramarz
(Mar 6, '12)
SPEAKING FREELY
Iran muscles in on Azerbaijan
Iran, a country with its own large Azeri minority, has for years been seeking
to destabilize the secular government of Shi'ite Azerbaijan, a neighbor with
vastly increasing wealth and one moving ever closer to the West in terms of
security and energy. - Robert M Cutler (Mar
6, '12)
Putin offers threadbare blanket
for Assad
From the Soviet era to this day, Syrian leaders have misread Moscow's support.
Their enthusiastic support for Vladimir Putin's return to the Russian
presidency fails to take into account that while he may support the current
regime of Bashar al-Assad, he will not hesitate to "share" Syria with Europe
and the US if that will further Moscow's broader interests in the Middle East.
- Sami Moubayed (Mar 6, '12)
Economy a plus for Putin
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin goes into Russia's presidential election this
weekend as firm favorite, in spite of widening protests against his continued
grip on power. One positive in his favor is strong economic growth, with
inflation dropping and consumers spending more. - Robert M Cutler
(Mar 2, '12)
Putin's oligarch killer
Russian lawyer Alexei Navalny's pledge that oligarchs will be targeted after
Sunday's presidential election overlooks the fact that likely election winner
Vladimir Putin is already ahead of him, with a government order requiring
extensive disclosures by state-owned companies and which includes a subtle, and
overlooked, oligarch killer. - John Helmer (Mar
1, '12)
UK jail for fugitive Ablyazov
Mukhtar Ablyazov, a fugitive from Kazakhstan after allegedly embezzling US$5
billion from the country's biggest lender, BTA bank, is now on the run from
England after being sentenced in London to 22 months in jail for failing to
disclose his assets and and lying under oath to the High Court. - Margarita
Assenova (Mar 1, '12)
China locked out of Russia's
far east
While China is a logical source of investment needed to reverse the economic
decline of Russia's far east, Moscow's recent plan to lease huge agricultural
territories excluded China in favor of Japan and South Korea. The Kremlin sees
its own past in Beijing - a semi-totalitarian society using state-controlled
funds to expand - and is wary of Vladivostok's increasingly Asian orientation.
- Dmitry Shlapentokh (Mar 1, '12)
Caspian pipeline rivals narrow
Rival projects to transport gas from Azerbaijan's offshore Shah Deniz deposit
have been narrowed down by the elimination of a Turkey-Greece-Italy pipeline
proposal. The next challenge is to choose between long-time hopeful Nabucco and
the more recently proposed South East European Pipeline. - Robert M Cutler
(Feb 29, '12)
Gazprom gets reality check
Russian natural gas monopoly Gazprom, which has repeatedly pledged to increase
natural gas exports, has had to tell Prime Minister Vladimir Putin that its
sales to many countries already exceed contract obligations while deals with
Central Asia and China look increasingly fragile. - Sergei Blagov
(Feb 29, '12)
Moscow stirs itself on Syria
Moscow senses that the final assault on Syria by the United States is looming
and has shifted its diplomacy up a gear. The stunning development was a
presidential phone call between Russia's Dmitry Medvedev and Iran's Mahmud
Ahmadinejad to touch base on events in Syria that are flagged in the Russian
media as reaching boiling point. - M K Bhadrakumar
(Feb 23, '12)
Kyrgyzstan takes on the
Kremlin
Kyrgyz President Almazbek Atambaev will demand Russia repay US$15 million in
rent arrears for military facilities during a visit to Moscow, with guarantees
and training not acceptable as payment in kind. The United States, in contrast,
has been paying its $150 million annual fee for Manas airbase on time, raising
questions over Atambaev's reasons to publicly seek its closure. - Fozil Mashrab
(Feb 23, '12)
Hidden war in the South
Caucasus
As Iran and Azerbaijan feverishly trade barbs over allegations of assassination
plots, many worry that these and other incidents mean that the countries in the
South Caucasus region - American-backed Georgia and Armenia too - have become
an espionage no-man's-land in the conflict between the Iranian and Israeli
intelligence services. - Nicholas Clayton (Feb
22, '12)
Turkistan 'terrorists' hurt
Uyghur cause
The Turkistan Islamic Party presents itself as a champion of Uyghur grievances
over the education, migration and economic policy dictated to Xinjiang province
by China's leadership. However, the TIP has rarely been responsible for the
attacks it claims, and its al-Qaeda-style propaganda has undermined
international support for Uyghurs while lending Beijing an excuse to crack
down. - J Z Adams (Feb 21, '12)
Land lease to China upsets
Tajiks
Tajikistan has little enough arable land, but a deal that lets the Chinese add
to that through good management backed by US$2 million is angering Tajiks who
recall clearly the loss of 1,000 square kilometers of territory barely a year
ago. - Mark Vinson (Feb 16, '12)
Kazakhs eye Europe as economy
falters
Kazakhstan's economy is showing signs of faltering after a bumper harvest put a
shine on last year's growth figures. President Nursultan Nazarbayev is already
on the case with a raft of domestic measures and efforts to boost links with
Europe, notably Germany. - Robert M Cutler (Feb
15, '12)
Tehran takes issue with
Azerbaijan
Azerbaijan's support for Israel and the United States is viewed with strong
suspicion by Tehran's ruling elite, which may resort to offensive measures
inside Azerbaijan to retaliate against Israeli aggression. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi
(Feb 14, '12)
Tajik authorities attack
corruption
Tajik authorities have made a number of high-profile arrests on corruption and
narcotics-trafficking charges. While President Emomali Rahmon criticizes
"corrupt" and "nepotistic" practices in the military and law-enforcement
sectors, ordinary people attribute such crimes to the president's relatives. - Alexander
Sodiqov (Feb 13, '12)
Bulgaria at the crossroads
of
Euro-Caspian energy plans
Competing projects to transport Caspian gas to Europe have put Bulgaria center
stage, with US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, a recent visitor, sending
her Special Envoy for Eurasian Energy on a follow-up trip next week - just when
Alexei Miller, CEO of Russian gas giant Gazprom, will also be in the country. - Robert
M Cutler (Feb 9, '12)
Pipelines enter post-Nabucco
era
For more than a decade, Nabucco was the only pipeline project planned to
transport Caspian gas to the European Union. Now Azerbaijan holds the main
cards, with cash reserves to build a pipeline that Europe seems unable to
finance, and coherent planning that eludes the Europeans. - Vladimir Socor
(Feb 9, '12)
The Russian winter of
discontent
With Moscow's faith in Washington's "reset" shattered by the Libyan bombing
campaign, Russia is accelerating a pivot towards Northeast Asia. China is the
important partner in economic and foreign affairs, while regional allies are
needed to help extract vital gas supplies from the East Siberian permafrost.
However, the key piece to the Eurasian puzzle is North Korea. - Yong Kwon
(Feb 9, '12)
SPEAKING FREELY
NATO's not so smart initiative
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization has launched a trust fund project to
secure or destroy hidden weapons and munitions in Tajikistan. The first
initiative in a move to low-cost support , it should mark a breakthrough in
multilateral cooperation, but budgetary constraints and commitments in
Afghanistan are making the "smart defense" initiative anything but a reality. - Emanuele
Scimia (Feb 8, '12)
Confidence in Nabucco fades
Backers of the Nabucco project, with a decision imminent by Azerbaijan on which
pipeline to match with the Shah Deniz gas field, are belatedly seeking to take
a gas-producing company on board. That may not be enough to rescue the
increasingly costly European project. - Vladimir Socor
(Feb 7, '12)
Aral Sea challenge to
Kazakhstan
Successful development of oil projects in the Uzbek region of the Aral Sea may
make the sector more attractive than Kazakhstan's Caspian oil and gas fields.
But modest achievements to date suggest Russia's increased interest is largely
political. - Farkhad Sharip (Feb 6, '12)
Hidden hand, clean hand in
Russian politics
Over seven decades after Joseph Stalin's Great Purge, his star is rising,
particularly among younger Russians for whom the dictator is a symbol of strong
and clean hands. Most Russians suspect the hands of everyone contending for
political power to be hidden, weak and corrupt. Russians think they can grasp
what Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's hands can do - and are loathe to trust the
devils they don't know. - John Helmer (Feb 3,
'12)
Echoes of war across the South
Caucasus
As the drums of war against Iran grow ever louder, the beat echoes in the South
Caucasus, where Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia have compelling - albeit vastly
different - reasons for fearing conflict in the Persian Gulf; a confluence of
regional events could lead to "a potentially explosive situation". - Nicholas
Clayton (Feb 2, '12)
Smaller 'stans fret at
Russia's dominance
Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, keen to ease away from Russian economic and
political domination, recognize potential alternative sources for the imported
oil on which they depend. International and regional obstacles, such as United
States sanctions and water-supply disputes, stand in the way. - Fozil Mashrab
(Feb 1, '12)
Russia's gold loses luster
The outlook for Russia's goldminers should be bright, yet such is Chinese-led
demand for gold, the metal's price is no longer a stable hedge but moves in
line with the value of everything in the emerging marketplace. Add in the
domestic political risk, and the miners' shares lose much of their luster. - John
Helmer (Feb 1, '12)
Russian oil slick for Croatia
The role of Croatia, the European Union's latest member, in the EU's energy
security framework may already be undermined by Russia, thanks to proposed
projects worth US$1.5 billion between Croatian government-controlled oil
company JANAF and Russia's Zarubezhneft. - Vladimir Socor
(Jan 31 '12)
SPEAKING FREELY
Moscow populism and the Great
Game
As the scale of rallies against Vladimir Putin suggests that Russia's political
life is on the cusp of change - and with it, the emergence of alternative
visions of power projection in Central Asia. Any rollback would give the
American leadership more room to hatch favorable deals in the region, and allow
China to expand its horzons too. - Uran Bolush
(Jan 30'12)
Uzbek success misses
population
Significant exports of gas lend some support to Uzbek President Islam Karimov's
claims that his country's economy is growing strongly. Yet amid the general
population, the norm is shortages of fuel - even gas - and electricity, as
exports earn more than domestic sales. - Deirdre Tynan
(Jan 30'12)
Southern gas corridor grows
more complex
Signals from Azerbaijan that the building of the Trans-Anatolian Gas Pipeline
(TAGP) will allow Baku to fill the Nabucco pipeline without the need for
Turkmen supplies complicate the picture for southern Europe's energy corridor
plans. TAGP gives Turkey the means to transit Azerbaijani gas to Europe without
being bound by the rules of the larger project. - Robert M Cutler
(Jan 26, '12)
An Uzbek struggle in name only
The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan began intent on overthrowing the "apostate"
regime of Islam Karimov. As its list of martyrs for 2011 shows, a decade later
its focus and composition have shifted to Afghanistan and Pakistan and in line
with Taliban aims - such that it is Uzbek in name only. - J Z Adams
(Jan 24, '12)
Kashagan costs surge
Developing Kazakhstan's offshore Kashagan oil fields was always going to be
tough, but Western energy companies are now seeking a 22% increase in the
development budget to double the initial estimate. The project's profitability
may soon come into doubt. - Robert M Cutler (Jan
20, '12)
Atambayev's Turkish affair needs
domestic peace for success
Kyrgyz President Almazbek Atambayev's visit to Turkey, rather than Russia, as
his first official overseas call indicates a determination to build trade and
attract investment rather than suffer mere superpower thraldom. To succeed, he
must also foster political stability and economic transparency at home. - Fozil
Mashrab (Jan 19, '12)
Kazakhstan stirs terror nests
Terror group Jund al-Khilafa's swift response to a clampdown by Kazakhstan
President Nursultan Nazarbayev on a rising undercurrent of Jihadi-Salafist
sentiment signals that the 
Kazakh regime must tread carefully to avoid provoking small cells from striking
again. Laws to thwart religious freedom could end up a propaganda boon for the
group's leaders, who claim from their base on the Afghanistan-Pakistan border
to have fighters "ready to be killed in the thousands" to defend their creed. - Jacob
Zenn (Jan 19, '12)
BOOK REVIEW
How Imperial Russia wooed Asia
Russia's own Orient: The politics of identity and Oriental studies in the
Imperial and early Soviet periods by Vera Tolz
When Russia launched Oriental studies amid its imperial decline, it sought to
emulate the West. However, the glamorous image of the downtrodden at the time
led minorities to be treated as equals rather than subjects, a wild contrast
from the West's approach. Using a wealth of research this book outlines how
this impacted positively on ethnic policy after the Bolshevik Revolution -
until the regime needed to consolidate power. - Dmitry Shlapentokh
(Jan 13, '12)
Ukraine alone in Russia gas
talks
The European Union is again letting Ukraine stand alone as it battles to secure
lower-priced gas from Russia, whose Gazprom is now increasingly likely to
muscle in on Kiev's plans for a consortium to upgrade and run Ukraine's gas
pipeline network. - Pavel Korduban (Jan 13,
'12)
THE GREAT GAS RACE
Turkey plays paltry hand
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's effusive thanks for "a wonderful Christmas
gift" after Ankara agreed to Russia building the South Stream gas pipeline
through Turkey's Black Sea exclusive economic zone were well justified. Little
was asked by Turkey in return - and Ukraine may no longer believe in Santa. - Vladimir
Socor (Jan 12, '12)
This concludes a two-part report
Part 1: Gazprom
races for EU loophole
Pyongyang to preserve Kim for
posterity
Kim Jong-il's passing in December could be good news for Russia's "Lenin
laboratory" of embalmers, which has preserved dead communist leaders ranging
from Joseph Stalin to Ho Chi Minh. Lacking work lately, the team would happily
construct a glass coffin for the North Korean Dear Leader in Kumsusan memorial
palace, possibly adjacent to his father's. However, reports suggest the
mummification will be done domestically. - Andrei Lankov
(Jan 11, '12)
Kazakh riot town to vote
Citizens in the Kazakh oil town of Zhanaozen, focus of a bitter strike and
where possibly close to 50 people were killed as riots were quelled last month,
will be allowed to vote in parliamentary elections on Sunday following a
surprise turnaround by President Nursultan Nazarbayev.
- Christopher Pala (Jan 11, '12)
EUROPE AND SOUTH STREAM, Part 1
Gazprom races for EU loophole
Russia's decision to bring forward the construction start date for Gazprom's
South Stream pipeline under the Black Sea has little to do with securing early
completion. A late-2012 start may be enough to stymie European Union
legislation that would limit Gazprom's role in Europe. - Vladimir Socor
(Jan 11, '12)
The is the first article in a two-part report.
Afghan rail link marks
a
break-out moment
Afghanistan's entry to the modern railway age is a modest 75-kilometer line
from the border with Uzbekistan to Mazar-e-Sharif, yet it could mark the start
of the transformation of the country's internal trade and its relations with
Central Asia and the rest of the world. - Fozil Mashrab
(Jan 10, '12)
Anatolia gas pipeline races
towards reality
Russia's Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's decision to bring forward construction
of the Black Sea South Stream pipeline adds urgency to a project that has no
gas to supply it and no purchase commitments. In contrast, Azerbaijan and
Turkey move the up-to-US$9 billion Trans-Anatolian Gas Pipeline, also targeting
Europe, ever closer to actuality. - Robert M Cutler
(Jan 4, '12)
The Rogun juggernaut
Tajikistan's Rogun dam and hydro-power project is supposedly on hold pending
the results of World Bank-sponsored assessments of its likely impact - even as
the bank risks its credibility by throwing its weight behind power transmission
links with Afghanistan that depend on the dam's construction. Uzbekistan, for
one, senses double dealing. - Fozil Mashrab (Jan
3, '12)
Putin piles on Arctic pressure
Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is showing increasing aggressiveness in
the Arctic as the Kremlin prepares to present this year its claims to disputed
territory in the region to the United Nations Commission on the Limits of the
Continental Shelf. Oil-related deals underline the value of the stakes at risk.
- Stephen Blank (Jan 3, '12) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
 |
|
|
|
|
|
All material on this
website is copyright and may not be republished in any form without written
permission.
Copyright 1999 - 2012
Asia Times Online (Holdings), Ltd.
|
|
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong
Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
|
|
|
|
