'Unfounded, exaggerated and
ill-intentioned' By Jing-dong
Yuan
China's official media have refuted
recent reports and official statements in the West
that highlight major advances in Chinese military
capabilities.
Since the January 11 Chinese
anti-satellite test that downed one of its own
defunct weather satellites, there has been growing
coverage and speculation on China's space weapons,
ballistic-missile developments, the new Jian-10
jet fighter, potential launching of an aircraft
carrier, and China's "anti-access" strategies
against US forces in a potential military conflict across
the
Taiwan Strait. Beijing argues that these alleged
capabilities are either exaggerated or fabricated
with ill intentions.
China's
anti-satellite (ASAT) test has drawn the most
attention. US military leaders suggest that the
test demonstrated significant progress by
incorporating a mobile platform in its launch
system, hence "displaying a worrisome level of
flexibility on the part of this potential
adversary", according to US Air Force chief of
staff General Michael Moseley.
Bill Gertz
of the Washington Times went even further:
"Pentagon officials said intelligence estimates
indicate that China will have produced enough
satellite interceptors by 2010 to destroy most US
low-earth-orbit satellites."
US Marine
Corps General James Cartwright, commander of US
strategic forces, who is also slated to be the
vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff,
testifying before the Senate Armed Services
Strategic Forces Subcommittee, reportedly alleged
that China is developing a full array of space
weapons, including missiles and jammers, and may
deploy nuclear weapons in space against US space
capabilities.
The US Office of Naval
Intelligence states that China is building five
nuclear submarines armed with JL-2 (Giant Wave)
submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs).
There are also reports that China is to build its
own aircraft carrier that would give it
power-projection capabilities beyond the Taiwan
Strait to match its growing economic power and
secure its maritime interests.
The US
Department of Defense 2007 report on China's
military capabilities says Beijing may be
contemplating development of a preemptive strategy
in addition to expanding its naval and missile
forces. It also argues that the size of Chinese
defense expenditure is larger than is officially
stated, and while there is modest progress in
transparency, the People's Liberation Army (PLA)
remains shrouded in secrecy in terms of its
doctrine, intentions and strategies.
The
Rand Corporation in a recent report warns against
growing Chinese capabilities in using
"anti-access" strategies to prevent deployment and
operation of US forces in the Taiwan Strait and
around the Korean Peninsula, hence undermining
Washington's ability to accomplish its goals in
the region.
And finally, China has
recently also launched its Jian-10 fighter
aircraft that rival the best of the US and Russian
air fleets. These sources argue that China's
growing military capabilities are shaking the
region's military balances of power and fanning a
regional arms race.
Beijing rejects these
allegations as unfounded, exaggerated and
ill-intentioned, aimed at stoking fear of a "China
threat" in the region and therefore justifying the
United States' own expansion of military spending
and development of new weapons systems.
An
article published in the International Herald
Leader, a newspaper affiliated with with the
official Xinhua News Agency, charges that the US
military uses China's January ASAT test to justify
its own ASAT developments. The article cites an
April 11 conference in the US state of Colorado as
an example, alleging that the meet was attended by
both the military and defense contractors, and the
major theme was on space warfare and response
capabilities. In addition, it reports that the US
military has in recent months conducted several
ASAT tests and allegedly used a laser beam to
cause one Russian satellite to lose contact with
its ground station.
While China remains
undecided on whether to build its own aircraft
carrier, out of concerns over costs, technologies
and political implications, Chinese analysts
reject the "Chinese aircraft-carrier threat"
thesis, suggesting that no one seems to have any
concern over the nine countries in the world that
currently possess 26 aircraft carriers.
They argue that the purposes behind such
reports are to stoke fear and anxiety among
China's neighbors, create pressure on China to
delay building aircraft carriers, and sustain
Western (read US) maritime dominance while
preventing China from acquiring the abilities to
protect sea lines of communication critical for
its economic development.
Indeed, Chinese
media claim that US media and experts exaggerate
developments in China's overall naval
capabilities. For instance, Western reports even
speculate that the PLA Navy may develop its own
Aegis-type anti-missile systems. With the
deployment of the 094-class nuclear submarines,
China can now dispatch its submarines close to
Alaska, enabling them to launch SLBMs that could
hit any target in the continental United States.
Chinese analysts also reject US and
Western reports that growing Chinese military
capabilities are changing the regional balances of
power, especially in the Taiwan Strait. They note
the recent Rand study "Entering the Dragon's Lair"
that they say exaggerates the PLA's ability to
prevent US military intervention in a future
crisis across the Taiwan Strait, arguing that such
alarmist assessments are meant to justify
continued military sales to Taiwan and the United
States' own global military readjustment, shifting
its strategic focus to East Asia. Indeed, recent
Rand reports almost all conclude that US military
intervention in a Taiwan conflict would fail.
The intentions, the Chinese claim, are
obvious. As Taiwan remains an important card in US
global strategic game, Washington's interests are
at the minimum to keep the Taiwan Strait status
quo. These dire scenarios therefore provide the
pretext for the US military to enhance its
capabilities to be able to intervene and win in
future military conflicts over the Taiwan Strait,
say Chinese analysts.
Beijing's concerns
over apparent recent Western and especially US
exaggeration of Chinese military capabilities are
understandable. As China continues to rise
economically, it is bound to run into conflicts
with other key stakeholders in the international
economy. Already there is pressure on China to
revalue its currency to reduce its huge trade
imbalance with the United States. Washington in
recent months also has imposed punitive tariffs on
Chinese goods, accusing Beijing of unfair
subsidies.
China can ill afford reports
that describe rapid expansion and improvement of
China's military capabilities, especially given
that it still has unresolved territorial disputes
with a number of neighboring countries, including
with another rising economic power India and its
strong rival for East Asian primacy, Japan.
Not only can the revival of the "China
threat" rhetoric undermine its efforts to project
itself as seeking a peaceful rise, but such
concerns could also draw greater US attention and
hence Washington's incentives to cement alliances
and strengthen its military presence in the
region, which in turn further complicate an
eventual unification with Taiwan.
Dr
Jing-dong Yuan is director of the education
program at the Center for Non-proliferation
Studies and an associate professor at the Monterey
Institute of International Studies.
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