SPEAKING
FREELY Why should Japan bail out
Lockheed? By William D Hartung
Speaking Freely is an Asia Times
Online feature that allows guest writers to have
their say. Please click hereif you are interested in
contributing.
Despite its role as
the Pentagon's top contractor, Lockheed Martin is
searching for some good news after a remarkable
series of setbacks in recent months.
First
came the cancellation of the company's contract to
build a
second "littoral combat ship"
for the US Navy after its first ship in the series
was plagued by cost overruns and design problems.
Then the US Coast Guard took over the
management of its multibillion-dollar "Deepwater"
modernization plan from Lockheed Martin and
Northrop Grumman. The decision was due in large
part to dangerous flaws in the new coast guard
cutters the firms were developing.
Last
but not least, the company's most high-profile
product of all, the US presidential helicopter,
has generated widespread criticism based on high
costs and poor performance.
With
weapons-procurement dollars likely to tighten up
as the costs of replacing equipment damaged in
Iraq come home to roost, these hits to the
company's reputation could strengthen the hand of
members of the US Congress seeking cuts in its two
lucrative combat-aircraft programs, the F-22 and
the F-35.
The F-22 - the most expensive
combat aircraft ever built at a total unit cost of
more than $300 million per unit - is particularly
vulnerable. The Pentagon has already cut back its
proposed order of the aircraft from an original
goal of 750 planes to current plans to purchase
183. Further cuts are not out of the question.
This is where the government of
conservative Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe
comes into play. He hopes to make Japan the first
foreign purchaser of the F-22, in a deal that
could be worth $20 billion or more for 100 planes.
A deal on this scale would be a huge shot
in the arm for Lockheed Martin's aircraft
division. A foreign sale of 100 planes would be
more than half of the US government's proposed
purchase of the F-22. It would keep Lockheed
Martin's Georgia and Texas production lines for
the plane open for years beyond the projected
shutdown date of 2011, during which time
legislators from those states could press for
additional purchases by the Pentagon.
But
there are a number of obstacles between Lockheed
Martin and its "deal of the century". First,
exports of the F-22 are currently barred by US
law. But industry analysts are convinced that
Lockheed Martin boosters in Congress could get
this provision lifted if the deal looks like a
real prospect.
The most important set of
concerns has to do with the danger of spurring an
arms race in Asia. South Korean officials have
expressed alarm at the prospect of Japan receiving
F-22s, and have said they will argue for their own
purchase of the planes if they are provided to
Tokyo. And China would no doubt feel the need to
upgrade its own air force in response, especially
in light of a US effort to persuade Taiwan to buy
$10 billion worth of US-built submarines and
aircraft.
The last thing the US government
should be doing is taking a step to undermine
relations with China at a time when Beijing's help
is needed to consolidate the deal to curb North
Korea's nuclear program.
Japan already has
highly capable F-15 combat aircraft from the
United States, along with the technology to build
significant components for them. This is more than
adequate to deal with China's current
capabilities, particularly considering that Japan
is allied with the US, whose military far outpaces
China's in every respect.
If the time
comes when Japan needs a new fighter, the less
expensive F-35 - also built by Lockheed Martin -
would be a reasonable alternative.
To a
significant degree, Abe's desire for F-22s is
based on the alleged prestige that would flow from
being the first country to receive the aircraft
from the US. This is not an adequate reason to
increase tensions in Asia.
As for Lockheed
Martin, it is a highly diversified military
contractor that can look elsewhere for a big "win"
to distract attention from its recent troubles. If
the F-22 program is having a hard time making it
in the US, it shouldn't be bailed out by making a
questionable deal in Asia.
William D
Hartung is a senior research fellow at the
World Policy Institute in New York.
(Copyright 2007 William D Hartung.)
Speaking Freely is an Asia Times
Online feature that allows guest writers to have
their say. Please click hereif you are interested in
contributing.
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