BOOK REVIEW
Tell-tale travelers' tales
Russia and Iran in the Great Game by Elena Andreeva
Opinion in Russia today on Iran is divided over whether or not to engage the country. This same division existed in the late 19th century, the era on which the author focuses, using the writings of Russian travelers to Iran. What the lively book lacks is a comparison of what European travelers to Russia felt. - Dmitry Shlapentokh (May 16, '08)

Tehran ponders the spoils of victory
Hezbollah's display of strength in Lebanon leaves its backer, Iran, emboldened. Tehran is now in a stronger position to negotiate a deal with the United States pertaining to its nuclear file. Or it could do something radical, such as trade off Hezbollah in exchange for a greater piece of the Iraqi cake. All options are on the table. - Sami Moubayed (May 16, '08)

Saudis, US grapple with Iran challenge
The reaction to the flareup in Lebanon has left Saudi Arabia (and its United States ally) with no doubt that there are not many takers in the Arab world for anti-Iran, anti-Hezbollah ploys. This leaves the George W Bush administration with little choice other than to resort to back-channel diplomacy to engage Tehran, while the Saudis, too, will have to re-asses their stance on Iran. - M K Bhadrakumar (May 16, '08)

Bush, McCain dream on in war land
US President George W Bush and the man who hopes to replace him, Senator John McCain, have divulged to the world their beautiful dreams, in which Middle East weapons have become ploughshares, bitter enemies lie down together as lambs and evil powers abandon nuclear weapons. This stuff keeps the neo-cons happy, even though the politics that will make it reality are absent. - Jim Lobe (May 16, '08)

US plan to nail Iran backfires
The George W Bush administration and the top US commander in Iraq, General David Petraeus, plotted a sequence of events that would sensationally build domestic US political support for a possible strike against Iran. Key to this was to be the disclosure of a major cache of Iranian weapons found in Karbala for use by Shi'ite militias. The weapons turned out to have nothing to do with Iran, and worse, the Iraq government suddenly distanced itself from the US's plan. - Gareth Porter (May 15, '08)

THE ROVING EYE
The US-Iran sound bite showdown
Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad's latest comments on Israel have been variously translated in the Western media, the most ominous saying Israel will not save itself from "death and destruction". This will inevitably be seized on by the George W Bush administration as more evidence that Tehran wants to "destroy" Israel, muscling up the case for a preemptive US attack. Maybe that is what Ahmadinejad intends. - Pepe Escobar (May 15, '08)

COMMENT
Coups and counter-coups
The Saudi Arabian accusation of an Iran-inspired "coup" by Hezbollah in Lebanon is a misnomer. The more apt description would be a government coup, inspired by the United States, and Hezbollah's successful "counter-coup". - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (May 15, '08)

Bush quick onto Lebanon blame-game
President George W Bush, on tour in the Middle East, has pledged continued United States support for the Lebanese government following its clashes with the Shi'ite Hezbollah militia. Bush makes no secret of his belief that Iran is behind the recent troubles. Others, though, point a finger at Washington. (May 14, '08)

Turkey combines dialogue with bullets
In a significant change of policy, Turkey has held high-level talks with the Kurdistan Regional Government in Iraq in an attempt to isolate Kurdish rebels based in northern Iraq. Both Ankara and the regional government recognize the benefits - especially trade - of working closer together, but Turkey's military option is still very much alive. (May 14, '08)

A deadly miscalculation in Lebanon
As a test of strength, the Lebanese government and its Saudi Arabian backers received a bloody nose in the confrontation with Hezbollah in Beirut. The government woefully underestimated Hezbollah's reaction to having its communications - spy - system interfered with. And the Iranian-backed Hezbollah, with its convincing display of military superiority, made another clear statement: leave our arms alone. - Sami Moubayed (May 13, '08)

   Renewed fighting erupts (AFP)

Hezbollah's shots ring in Bush's ears
Just about everything the George W Bush administration has tried in the Middle East over the past few years has undermined United States standing and influence in the region, even as it has enhanced Tehran's. Yet as Bush visits Saudi Arabia and Egypt this week, he might be able to turn Hezbollah's stunning show of strength in Lebanon to his advantage. - Jim Lobe
(May 13, '08)

US misses Iran opportunity
In a busy week for Iran, key nations negotiating with it over its nuclear program will present an incentive package for the Iranians to consider. At the same time, International Atomic Energy Agency officials will thrash out the last remaining issues on the Iran-IAEA plate. US President George W Bush will also be in the region, but he won't be dropping by, even though Tehran has indicated they might be willing to talk. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (May 13, '08)

Hezbollah's street fight just a first step
Hezbollah, in taking its political grievances to the streets, was able to take military control of Beirut in less than 48 hours, while the Lebanese army looked on. The display of force by the opposition Shi'ite group does not leave the government much margin for maneuvering. (May 12, '08)

   Arab ministers bid to end crisis (AFP)

SPENGLER
Why Israel is the world's happiest country
At the 60th anniversary of its founding, it could be said that Israel is the happiest nation on Earth. It is one of the wealthiest, freest and best-educated; and it enjoys high fertility and life expectancy rates. The light heart of the Israelis in face of continuous danger is a singularity worthy of a closer look. (May 12, '08)

War funding and war rhetoric
A breakdown of the US$70 billion President George W Bush requested from the US Congress for war funding makes interesting reading, from $3 billion for "classified activities" to $3 billion for the technology to battle explosive devices. At the same time, the familiar Bush administration charges of Iran sending arms into Iraq have been revived. Coincidence? - Sami Moubayed (May 9, '08)

Iran woos Farsi-speaking nations
Tehran has stepped up its initiative to forge closer links with the two other Farsi-speaking nations in the region, Afghanistan and Tajikistan. Not only will the move kick-start slow trade ties, it signals a greater degree of Iran's integration into a region deemed important by the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, to which Tehran is pressing its claims to join. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (May 9, '08)

Undiplomatically yours
Fiery and insulting language is increasingly spewing around the globe. It is debatable whether there is a logic behind the combative and irascible words of some world leaders, but the spoken broadsides of a Mahmud Ahmadinejad or a Kim Jong-il are certainly less harmful than the military invasions of a George W Bush. - Sreeram Chaulia (May 8, '08)

Pressure for Iraq to pay its own way
The US Congress is expected to soon impose unprecedented conditions on Iraq-related spending, including a ban on major reconstruction projects and support for Sunni militias. The idea is that Iraq cough up more money to rebuild itself, while at the same time challenging the wisdom of the "surge". - Jim Lobe (May 8, '08)

SPEAKING FREELY
The Gulf's currency solution
The declining value of the US dollar, and with it the wealth of all countries linked to it, has prompted oil states such as Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates to consider ending their US dollar currency pegs. The history of the region holds the answer to their quest for an alternative. - Nathan Lewis (May 8, '08)

COMMENT
US terror report misses the point
The US State Department's annual terrorism report makes no secret that al-Qaeda is back, strong as ever. But if al-Qaeda indeed exists on such a large and influential scale in so many countries, is it not time to question the logic used by the George W Bush administration's "war on terror", which was meant to weaken and destroy al-Qaeda in the first place? - Ramzy Baroud
(May 7, '08)

KEBABBLE
Tequila and Turkish nationalism
Turkey celebrates Children's Day and National Sovereignty Day on the same date, and that's just how founding father Mustafa Kemal Ataturk wanted it. The day celebrates youth and serves as a reminder that today's boys and girls must protect the future of the republic. But for some parents, perhaps Armenian or Kurdish, the jingoistic flavor of the raucous celebration can be most disquieting. - Fazile Zahir (May 7, '08)

New offer threatens Iran's 'red line'
The key nations negotiating over Iran's nuclear program hail their latest offer of incentives for Tehran to give up its uranium-enrichment activities as a part of a "twin-track strategy", the other being United Nations sanctions. There is actually a third "war track", the drumbeat of which can be heard in Washington and Tel Aviv. And further, the incentives directly challenge Iran's "red line". - Kaveh Afrasiabi (May 6, '08)

Yes, the Pentagon did want to hit Iran
Since soon after the September 11, 2001, terror attacks, it has been an open secret that the George W Bush administration wanted to attack Iran. Now comes further confirmation from a document quoted in then-under secretary of defense for policy Douglas Feith's recently published account of Iraq war decisions. It is confirmed, too, this was part of a broader plan, explicitly supported by the US's top military leaders, to also take out Syria, Libya, Sudan and Somalia. - Gareth Porter. (May 6, '08)

DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
The last war and the next one
There is no end in sight to the war in Iraq, but United States Secretary of Defense Robert Gates has been criticizing the military services for not getting fully behind an imperial strategy for "the next war", counterinsurgency wars across the globe similar to the (futile) one now raging in Sadr City in Bagdad. - Tom Engelhardt (May 5, '08)

SPENGLER
The heart has its own unreason
In one of the weirder acts of recent diplomacy, a delegation of robed and turbaned Iranian mullahs went to Rome to declare with due solemnity they shared the pope's view that reason and faith are compatible. The eventual outcome of the meeting will not be decided by the Iranian clergy or the Holy See, but by people such as journalist Magdi Allam, who converted from Islam to Catholicism. - Spengler (May 5, '08)

Energized Iran builds more bridges
In terms of whom it conducts its energy business with, Iran keeps all its options open, and it will not allow itself to be pushed out of the European market as exports are the bridge that will facilitate its all-round integration with the Western world. Tehran's hectic diplomatic activity in this regard has put the "Iran Six" countries dealing with its nuclear dossier on the defensive: none of them wants confrontation with Iran. - M K Bhadrakumar (May 5, '08)

How under-the-gun Iran plays it cool
What Iranian leaders dream of is an Iran respected as a major power. To this end, they have little choice, faced with the enmity of the globe's "sole superpower" - its sanctions and its ring of military bases - but to employ a sophisticated counter-encirclement foreign policy. And given President Mahmud Ahmadinejad's place in the country's politico-religious politics, he might be betting on the usefulness of an American air assault. - Pepe Escobar (May 2, '08)

Iran moving into the big league
From the Persian Gulf to the Caspian region, the Caucasus, Central Asia, South Asia and beyond, Iran thanks to its geographical location is an ideal connecting bridge that has not until now fully exploited its advantageous "equidistance" from India and Europe. This is exemplified in the US$7.6 billion gas pipeline that will flow from Iran to Pakistan to India, and which is finally close to reality. Tehran is ambitiously moving from regional power to global power. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (May 2, '08)

BOOK REVIEW
America's university of imperialism
Soldiers of Reason by Alex Abella
The RAND Corporation was the Cold War granddaddy think-tank of them all, one of the most unusual private organizations in the field of international relations, and it's still with us. It helped administrations plan and fight the Vietnam War, turning theory into an all-too-grim reality. Yet its record of advice on cardinal policies involving war and peace, arms races and decisions to resort to armed force has been abysmal. -Chalmers Johnson (May 2, '08) 

The heat is on Muqtada
The fierce battle raging in Baghdad's Sadr City between Muqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army and United States and Iraqi forces has claimed more than 1,000 lives over the past few weeks. What is not clear is the motive behind the offensive against the Shi'ite militia. It could be the Americans, trying to nip in the bud any united front between Muqtada and Sunnis. Or the Iranians, wanting to eliminate a potential thorn in their side. Either way, Muqtada has a fight on his hands. - Sami Moubayed (May 1, '08)

    Sadr City fight fuels Iraq bloodshed (AFP)

Al-Qaeda searches for unity in Iraq
A series of messages from al-Qaeda deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri and its chief in Iraq, Abu Hamza al-Mujahir, indicates al-Qaeda is pulling out all the stops to try to prevent the Sunni Iraqi mujahideen from militarily winning the war but then losing the political spoils because of disunity. - Michael Scheuer (May 1, '08)

Iran-US talks await new leadership era
It is unlikely either the George W Bush administration or hardliners in Tehran will initiate serious bilateral talks prior to the US presidential elections in November. The prospect of dialogue with Iran seems plausible after the vote, but only if the next US president is willing to risk strengthening President Mahmud Ahmadinejad's hand before Iran's 2009 presidential polls. (Apr 30, '08)

India raises a toast to Iran
In a clear reference to the United States, Delhi has asserted that India and Iran "are perfectly capable of managing all aspects of their relationship", and is solidifying a number of agreements previously stalled with Tehran, mostly related to energy. The economic imperatives are obvious, but there are also compelling political reasons. - Siddharth Srivastava (May 1, '08)

Iran holds key to India's energy insecurity
In terms of its energy needs, India has woken to the simple fact that nearly all roads lead to Tehran, both as a source of energy as well as an outlet for other countries' energy exports to India. This could be the first step in a whole gamut of economic, trade, cultural, political and even security cooperation. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Apr 29, '08)

US embroiled in de-basing deal
The George W Bush administration is in crucial negotiations with the government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki over the future relationship between Iraq and the United States. The core issue relates to permanent military bases, but no one is saying so, even as a year-end deadline looms. - Daniel Smith (Apr 29, '08)

DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
Selling the president's general
Just as President George W Bush's favorite general, David Petraeus, was given another promotion by being nominated as head of US Central Command, revelations broke of the Pentagon's extensive propaganda operation to embed retired military officers in the mainstream US media. The two events - and the "surge" in Iraq - are inextricably linked. - Tom Engelhardt (Apr 28, '08)

Iran steps into enemy's territory
Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad's swing though Sri Lanka, Pakistan and India this week takes him to capitals firmly in the United States camp. Tehran needs a counter to the regime of sanctions and limitations imposed by the West. The South Asian countries need Iran's business, so much so they will risk backlashes in defying Washington's will on isolating Iran. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Apr 28, '08)

Syria bristles at US charges
Washington's accusations that Syria and North Korea cooperated on a nuclear site that was allegedly destroyed by an Israeli air strike last September, are being laughed off in Damascus as another "convenient inaccuracy". The charge would be downright funny, if it didn't come with the dangerous potential of mushrooming into what happened when Iraq was accused of developing weapons of mass destruction. - Sami Moubayed (Apr 28, '08)

THE ROVING EYE
Hillary, the war chick
It was a silly question to begin with, but Democratic hopeful Hillary Clinton jumped in boots and all, saying if she were US president and Iran attacked Israel with nuclear weapons, she would "obliterate" Iran. Clinton's positioning spells Imperial Washington in all its glory - and hubris. - Pepe Escobar (Apr 25, '08)

Recruiting the bottom of the barrel
According to the US Congress, the number of recruits requiring a waiver to join the US Army because of a criminal record has more than doubled since 2004, to one of every eight new soldiers. Ominously, a link between pre-service behavior and criminal acts while in the military has been confirmed in studies. - David Isenberg(Apr 25, '08)

Petraeus' rise lets Cheney loose on Iran
General David Petraeus' nomination as the new head of the US Central Command, in place of the "unpliable" Admiral William Fallon, adds a strident voice in support of the George W Bush administration's policies toward Iran and Iraq. It also gives Vice President Dick Cheney greater freedom of action to exploit the option of an air attack against Iran during the administration's final months.- Gareth Porter (Apr 24, '08)

  US to detail N Korea-Syria nuclear 
cooperation (AFP)

New momentum for US-Iran dialogue
This week's summit in Kuwait of Iraq and its neighbors, although not officially breaking any ice between Iran and the United States, points to the two countries showing a new willingness to demonstrate their support for the embattled Baghdad government, as well as the latter's attempts to build bridges with its Arab neighbors. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Apr 24, '08)

US paradox of construction and destruction
In the 1960s a construction consortium, The Vietnam Builders, completed a nearly miraculous construction effort in South Vietnam and gave a strong fiscal stimulus to the US economy. But Vietnam showed that war is not the same as nation building; greater militarization only brings more suffering and accentuates the paradox of simultaneous construction and destruction, which unfortunately has found painful new life in Iraq. - James M Carter (Apr 24, '08)

Israel changes tune on Iran
Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has been unequivocal recently in his assurances that Iran will not get the bomb. This is a sea-change for the Israeli leader, who until now has been careful to keep "all options" on the table, and reflects the conviction that diplomatic means will be central in stopping Tehran from going nuclear. (Apr 23, '08)

Muqtada's biggest battle already won
Popularity is the treasury of a guerrilla movement that sustains it in asymmetrical war against conventionally superior foes. That's why Muqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army, now acknowledged as the largest social welfare dispenser in Iraq, is such a formidable force: with the people behind it, it simply cannot be defeated, as the US is finding out. - Sreeram Chaulia (Apr 22, '08)

Iran's 'bomb' and dud intelligence
Just as the intelligence community in the United States and Britain took a beating over the misreading of the flow of information about Iraqi weapons of mass destruction before the invasion of 2003, assessments on Iran's nuclear program - which vary wildly - have aroused incredulity. At stake is a far more dangerous war with Iran than the one with Iraq, and one that continued intelligence failures could precipitate. - Richard M Bennett  (Apr 22, '08)

Carter spreads a new doctrine
Former US president Jimmy Carter was well received this week in Syria, where he met a range of people, including the head of the political bureau of Hamas, a US-listed terrorist organization. Despite Carter's stated aims, there will be no immediate breakthroughs in the Middle East, but he does have the ear of think-tanks and decision-makers in Washington. - Sami Moubayed (Apr 22, '08)

KEBABBLE
Turkey makes peace with Pippa
The rape and murder of 33-year-old Italian peace activist Pippa Bacca has shocked and saddened Turkey. The tragedy of the bride-to-be dying for the cause of peace has set the nation's imagination aflame. In a country of hopeless romantics, idealists and dreamers, Pippa Bacca may well have, in death, found her true spiritual home. - Fazile Zahir (Apr 22, '08)

Room for two: US, Iran in the Middle East
While keeping Iran out of events in the Middle East isn't a realistic option, bringing Tehran in from the cold will have huge repercussions for the region's order and for the US and its allies. The question is no longer what economic incentives are required to change Tehran's behavior. Instead, it's what role to give it in stabilizing Iraq and in the region as a whole. - Trita Parsi (Apr 21, '08)

Petraeus hid Maliki's resistance to US troops
US General David Petraeus's portrayal of last month's offensive in Basra by Iraqi forces as inept masked a quite different picture in which Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki launched the attack to forestall a much bigger US-led operation against the Mahdi Army. Maliki did not want the US push to succeed. - Gareth Porter (Apr 18, '08)

A birthday present for Mubarak
Eighty-year-old President Hosni Mubarak faces trouble as never before in his 26 years at Egypt's helm. For myriad reasons, people are angry, which alarms "Big sister Egypt's" neighbors, and particularly Cairo's ally, the United States. The beleaguered president could well recall the events leading to the demise of the last king of Egypt in 1952. - Sami Moubayed (Apr 18, '08)

A diplomatic shuffle on Iran
The meeting of heavyweight nations in China over Iran's nuclear program, while not surprisingly failing to produce any startling breakthrough, has set the stage for a mini-breakthrough on the chessboard of this international crisis. This game is inextricably linked to a bigger chessboard, the one involving Iraq, over which the United States and Iran - despite their rhetoric - share the common interest of the country's stabilization. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Apr 17, '08)

Basra: Echoes of Vietnam
As it did in Vietnam, the United States looks at Iraq though the lens of firepower and troop deployments. But war is not just about things that blow up, and occupiers always ignore the point of view of the occupied. Similarly, for a parallel to the 1968 Tet offensive in Vietnam, Iraq now has its battle for Basra. - Conn Hallinan (Apr 17, '08)

THE ROVING EYE
My militia is more untouchable than yours
Iraq, transfixed by no less than 28 militias, is burning - again. Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki has made a lot of noise about an ongoing government crackdown on these groups. But some militias are more untouchable than others: the Kurdish Peshmergas fall under the radar, while Muqtada al-Sadr's are bang in the line of fire. - Pepe Escobar (Apr 17, '08)

Turkey wrestles with a 'judicial coup'
Turkey's Constitutional Court is considering whether to ban the highly popular ruling Justice and Development Party on the grounds it has become a cove for anti-secular activity. At stake are profound domestic political changes, and Ankara's controversial bid for European Union membership. (Apr 17, '08)

Iran homes in on the Caspian
With United States and United Nations sanctions escalating the pressures on Iran, particularly in the Middle East and Persian Gulf, Tehran is seeking an outlet for trade and investment in the Caspian region, luring potential partners with lucrative production-sharing agreements. If only the littoral states could agree among themselves. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Apr 16, '08)

US juggles double-edged Iran sanctions
Ahead of a meeting this week in China of all of the major powers dealing with Iran's nuclear program, the United States continues its push for unilateral sanctions against Tehran. Yet a bill making its way through the senate may potentially further undermine the international support Washington seeks to confront Iran and "change its behavior". (Apr 15, '08)

Fallujah fights a never-ending battle
Three years after the devastating United States-led siege of the city, residents of Fallujah continue to struggle with a shattered economy, infrastructure and a crippling lack of medical care and drinking water. Liberated Fallujah, many residents say, is now just a big jail. - Ali al-Fadhily and Dahr Jamail (Apr 15, '08) 

SPENGLER
Ehud Olmert on the Damascus road
Guerilla movements require arms, money and intelligence from sympathetic states. Hamas and Hezbollah would represent no threat to Israel without the backing of Syria and Iran. Military and political logic requires Israel to attack their sponsors, rather than their militants embedded among civilians. Iran is hard to reach, but Syria is a sitting duck. (Apr 14, '08)

DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
Oops, our bad
United States air power has, in the past six-and-a-half years, been an effective force in the "war for terror", not against it. From the point of view of one's actual enemies, they can't be bombed and strafed often enough, because when they are, it is more or less guaranteed to create their newest recruits. - Tom Engelhardt (Apr 14, '08)

US edges closer to engaging Iran
Iran has condemned attacks on the Green Zone in Baghdad, distancing itself from provocative acts against the United States, while also downplaying Israel's massive military exercises. This comes as Tehran acknowledges the receipt of an official Washington suggestion for a next round of talks on Iraq. With the US position eroding fast in Iraq, there is a strong sense the George W Bush administration is taking the plunge for unconditional talks with Iran. - M K Bhadrakumar (Apr 11, '08)

Tehran keeps its options open
Iran's reluctance to jump into another round of dialogue with the United States over Iraq stems from its belief that no tangible results can be gained as long as Washington constantly demonizes Iran and fails to appreciate its true role in Iraq. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Apr 11, '08)

TARGET IRAN, Part 2
Euro mantra undermines sanctions
Chinese exporters have a three-line code to beat United States-imposed sanctions on Iran. The mantra's heart - the euro and the Europe-focused SWIFT banking transaction network - point to the likely long-term winners and losers in this financial tug-of-war. (Apr 11, '08)
This concludes a two-part article.

Mixed Muslim message in 'war on terror'
The majority of the 57 member states of the Organization of the Islamic Conference lend territorial or military assistance of different shades to the United States' "war on terror". This appears to belie any imminent "clash of civilizations". Yet while the governments side with the US, their citizens have vehemently anti-American positions. - Sreeram Chaulia (Apr 11, '08)

A US war at the polls
While the George W Bush administration claims its Iraq policy is not beholden to public opinion polls in the United States, it is increasingly difficult to view the respective aspects of US strategy, as unveiled in congressional hearings this week, as doing anything more than reducing violence now to quell domestic dissent against the war. (Apr 11, '08)

THE ROVING EYE
Evil Iran, the new al-Qaeda
The recent opinion piece by senators Joe Lieberman and Lindsey Graham was soothing for George W Bush administration supporters in its assurances that the "surge" in Iraq is successful as well as noble. It also served as a convenient demonizing of Iran. As for the majority of the American public, which has had enough of an endless war, it's nothing but an insult to their collective intelligence. - Pepe Escobar (Apr 9, '08)

War and peace, Israeli style
Israel's massive military exercises on the Syrian border have significantly raised tension between the two countries, even as their leaders downplay the development. At first glance, it is in nobody's interest to see yet another war. Yet in their relentless pursuit of Hezbollah, the Israelis have good reason to wage a limited battle on the group's natural ally - Syria - and then seek peace on their own terms. - Sami Moubayed (Apr 9, '08)

Muqtada rides the tiger
General David Petraeus and US envoy Ryan Crocker are not alone as they go through their paces before the US Congress. There's a ghostly figure beside them, that of "hot-headed", "radical cleric" Muqtada al-Sadr, who has made a mockery of their plans for a pacified Iraq. British author and journalist Patrick Cockburn in a book out this week sheds new light on Muqtada, the canny, cautious, strategically savvy political leader who has called for a million-strong march in Baghdad this week. (Apr 9, '08)

Iraqi rogues and a false proxy war
The strong resistance put up against United States and Iraqi forces in Basra was by rogue militiamen who have split from Muqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army and come under Iranian control. That, anyway, is the line General David Petraeus is expected to follow in his congressional testimony. Yet there is no evidence such Iranian-backed special groups exist, and Tehran's real strategy in Iraq bears no resemblance to the one portrayed in the US proxy war narrative. - Gareth Porter (Apr 8, '08)

CAMPAIGN OUTSIDER
Questioning to win in Iraq
The US presidential candidates hope to get useful answers when the top US military commander and diplomat testify on Capitol Hill. But the key to the election may be asking the right question. - Muhammad Cohen (Apr 8, '08)

KEBABBLE
Gory matricide fixates a nation
When troubled Turkish 21-year-old Basak Aydintug murdered her domineering mother she broke one of the world's most entrenched taboos and the shocking crime has fascinated the press. The mother has received post-mortem acclaim for her brilliance as a person and a doctor; and Basak will probably have a film made about her. But a subsequent matricide has failed to engaged the public, drawing questions about the Turkish media's preference for photogenic murderesses. (Apr 8, '08)

The general and the trap
The George W Bush administration's missteps in Iraq will not be apparent in the shadowboxing among Washington's "best and brightest" when General David Petraeus, American "surge" commander in Iraq, and US ambassador Ryan Crocker testify before congressional committees on Tuesday. And any debate focused on military success or failure is a trap, with Petraeus' testimony as the bait for unwary Democratic presidential hopefuls. - Ira Chernus (Apr 7, '08)

Yes, it's that 'q' word again
The United States risks getting bogged down in Iraq for a long time to come, the influential experts who advised the bipartisan Iraq Study Group conclude in a new report. They suggest two possible alternatives to the current policy of an "unconditional" US commitment to Iraq, and their views will almost certainly give dissenters ammunition in Tuesday's critical congressional testimony. - Jim Lobe (Apr 7, '08)

Presidential paths diverge over terror focus
The recent Shi'ite clashes in Iraq have forced that country, along with Afghanistan, back onto the agendas of the US presidential hopefuls. Democrats Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama and Republican John McCain say they will bolster efforts in Afghanistan. The unanswered question is whether the more important battle with Islamic extremism is in Iraq or Afghanistan, and how the two theaters affect one another. (Apr 4, '08)

Muqtada out of step in Shi'ite dance
The attempted crackdown by the Nuri al-Maliki government on Muqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army vividly illustrates how politics in Iraq have slipped into a Shi'ite vs Shi'ite battle. The Muslim group can no longer be viewed as one big family - thanks to the preferences of Iran, and the ambitious Muqtada. - Sami Moubayed (Apr 4, '08)

BOOK REVIEW
A neo-con in the works
Surrender Is Not an Option by John Bolton
The Yale-educated son of a Boston firefighter, Bolton makes no secret of his contempt for liberal thinking and his urge for confrontation. The controversial former US ambassador to the United Nations explains his decision to go it alone at the UN with a mission to "improve America's position" rather than to improve the organization. Bolton eventually failed on both counts because his hardline approach kept him from realizing that the two are inextricably linked. - Alexander Casella (Apr 4, '08)

THE ROVING EYE
The other Iraqi civil war
Even under George W Bush logic, "the terrorists" won and Iran won, this time in the battle of Basra. In the north of Iraq, though, the pieces are falling into place for an alliance between the United States, Israel and a "greater Kurdistan". If only the pesky Iraqi nationalist Sunnis and Shi'ites don't get in the way. - Pepe Escobar (Apr 2, '08)

Iran torpedoes US plans for Iraqi oil
With the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps showing how much control it has over the killing fields of Iraq, by stopping the fighting in the southern city of Basra, Iran has made both the Iraqi and United States governments look very foolish. Far beyond that, Iran has frustrated the joint US-British objective of gaining control of Basra, without which their strategy for establishing control over the fabulous oil fields of southern Iraq will not work. - M K Bhadrakumar (Apr 2, '08)

Muqtada's fight puts US to flight
In the United States' estimation, Muqtada al-Sadr and his Mahdi Army were ripe for the picking after months of being harassed by "cordon and search" operations across Iraq. The heavy offensive in Basra was to further - if not fatally - weaken the Shi'ite militia. That Muqtada's men were more than ready for a fight has the George W Bush administration scrambling to distance itself from the gross miscalculation. - Gareth Porter (Apr 1, '08)

Iran sees hope in war of words
High-level and at times contradictory comments by United States officials on Iran's nuclear program heat the pot of allegations against the country without bringing it to boiling point. From Tehran's perspective, in this war of attrition being fought in the arena of world public opinion, the chips are piling up against the US and its allies. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Apr 1, '08)

Shi'ite fight shows other side of the COIN
The struggle between Iraqi forces and Muqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army calls into question the US's new counterinsurgency doctrine (COIN) and bodes ill for the country's stabilization. Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki has made a big gamble - if the fighting causes more misery in southern Iraq, his government will be doomed by its chief constituency. - Ehsan M Ahrari (Mar 31, '08)

The day the US declared war on Iran
North Korea was a test-run for the United States' new strategy of "shock and awe" financial sanctions against Iran. On March 20, Washington declared two acts of war: one against Iran's banks and one against any financial institution anywhere in the world that tries to do business with an Iranian bank. The next step is to designate Iran's central bank as a financial criminal; the impact of this will be the financial equivalent to the first bombs falling on Baghdad in 2003. - John McGlynn (Mar 31, '08)

Jitters over Syria's Kurdish clashes
The death of three Kurds in clashes with security forces in the Kurdish district of Qamishly in northeastern Syria has angered Kurds not only in Syria but also in neighboring Iraq and Turkey. This is very bad timing for a region on the verge of explosion. - Sami Moubayed (Mar 28, '08)

SPEAKING FREELY
September 11 was a third-rate operation
From the day of the attack, evidence has accumulated that September 11, 2001, was never more than a third-rate operation. This has been evident from both what the plot did, and what it didn't attempt, or do. The American public shares the blame for the plot's success, causes and ensuing ramifications; through its collective narcissism, dereliction of responsibility - and fear. - Bohdan Pilacinski (Mar 27, '08)

Bush and Bin Laden's virtual war
The George W Bush administration's "war on terror" could be summed up in three words - "fragmentation, diminution, destruction". That's fragmentation brought about by "creative destabilization", as in Iraq, Lebanon and Palestine; diminution of American prestige, both military and political, and thus of American power; destruction of political consensus within the US for a strong global role. And all this to the advantage of Osama bin Laden. - Mark Danner (Mar 27, '08)

Muqtada cuts free
Fighting in the south of Iraq between Muqtada al-Sadr's Madhi Army and a rival Shi'ite organization fitted in uniforms of the Iraqi security forces mark the end of Muqtada's self-imposed ceasefire. It also signals a major defeat for the US military command's strategy aimed at weakening the Mahdi Army. - Gareth Porter (Mar 27, '08)

A sheikha, a queen and a first lady
The dazzling arrivals of three young first ladies to power in Doha, Amman and Damascus have unveiled a new and important realm of possibilities for the wives of Arab leaders. The "Big Three" have enchanted much of the world with their grace and elegance, and have taken increasingly active roles as businesswomen, entrepreneurs and nation-builders. - Sami Moubayed (Mar 27, '08)

US moves towards engaging Iran
Sunday's mortar attacks on the Green Zone in Baghdad may be a harbinger of things to come unless the United States accommodates Iranian interests. And with the George W Bush administration's grudging admission of the realities of the political alignment in Tehran, "unconditional talks" between the countries are in the offing. The real issue now is whether the emboldened leadership in Tehran shares Washington's sense of urgency. - M K Bhadrakumar (Mar 26, '08)

Very sick, and not getting better
Thousands of doctors have fled Iraq or been killed in the five years since the US invasion. There is a woeful shortage of hospital beds and equipment, and even when patients can dodge the bullets and militias to get to a hospital, most can't afford to pay. The humanitarian situation is one of the world's most critical, a report by the International Committee of the Red Cross concludes. - Alexander Casella (Mar 26, '08)

The fateful Battle of Baghdad
In its five years under American occupation, Baghdad has been transformed from a metropolis into an urban desert, and various American "surges" have proven, in the end, disastrous. For the residents of the battered city, it's an endless wait for the Americans to leave. - Michael Schwartz (Mar 26, '08)

KEBABBLE
Turkey seeks a more modern Islam
Turkish highest religious authority has instructed top theologians to re-evaluate the oral traditions relating to the Prophet Mohammad. It's an ambitious attempt at a fundamental revision of the holy texts and Turkey has the capacity to do nothing less than recreate Islam, changing it from a religion whose rules must be obeyed, to one designed to serve the needs of people in a modern secular democracy. - Fazile Zahir (Mar 26, '08)

DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
Bonfire of puppy-tossers, and the beer test
A widely viewed Internet video of a US Marine throwing a cute puppy to its death in a ditch in Iraq has Americans gnashing their teeth at the appalling actions of a native son. It's disturbing stuff, but where's America's all-consuming concern for the hundreds of thousands of dead Iraqi humans? It's this dichotomy that exposes the real reasons for the war, and the real risks that those who advocate its quick conclusion are taking. - Julian Delasantellis (Mar 25, '08)

THE ROVING EYE
Shocked, awed and left to rot
US Vice President Dick Cheney is spot on when he talks of "phenomenal changes" in Iraq. Millions of Iraqis have lost their homes, their jobs, their families, their dreams and in countless cases their own lives because of a pre-emptive war. And anti-American Muqtada al-Sadr will ultimately be the lord of what remains of Iraq. - Pepe Escobar (Mar 19, '08)

DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
Already counting to six
When it comes to the American position in Iraq, short of an act of God, the sixth anniversary of George W Bush's war of choice is going to dawn much like the fifth one, no matter who's elected US president in November. - Tom Engelhardt (Mar 19, '08)

Khomeini's grandchild breaks her silence
The outspoken views of Zahra Eshraghi, granddaughter of Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic revolution in Iran, have put her at odds with Tehran's conservative hardliners and have drawn a gag order from her own prestigious family. But the recent mass disqualification of reformists in the March 14 parliamentary elections and what she feels are "delusions" maintained by the current regime have moved her to break her silence. (Mar 18, '08)

IRAN VOTES
A new political space opens
As widely expected, "principalists" - conservatives - have taken the majority of seats in the parliamentary elections, although reformists have fared better than anticipated. With some seats going to a second round of polling over the next few weeks, the United States' anti-Iran rhetoric will further strengthen the hands of the conservatives. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Mar 17, '08)

Battle of the conservatives
In Iran there are reformers, conservatives and the really conservative. Those running for office in Friday's parliamentary elections come from the last category. Reformers are expected to win no more than 30 of the 290 seats up for grabs. - Sami Moubayed (Mar 14, '08)

Israel raises the ante against Iran
Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni's "charm" offensive against Iran in the United States is ominously reminiscent of the sabre-rattling before the invasion of Iraq. This time, however, the stakes are higher as the way is being opened for another disastrous war in the Middle East, since Israel is incapable of peace with the Palestinians. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Mar 13, '08)

Turkey and Iraq take a step at a time
The Turkish incursion into northern Iraq against Kurdish rebels achieved what it was meant to, in that Ankara demonstrated its willingness to undertake such a bold move. The next step will be more difficult: joint national-regional delegations on both the Iraqi and the Turkish sides to take small steps for cross-border cooperation. - Robert M Cutler (Mar 13, '08)

COMMENT
American Icarus flirted with fire
The widespread view is that US CENTCOM commander Admiral William "Fox" Fallon was sacrificed by the George W Bush administration because he disagreed with its policies on Iran while also saving the US from marauding Chinese. This is bunk. Fallon fell because he committed a far worse crime for a military veteran - he talked out of turn. - Mark Perry (Mar 12, '08)

Fallon falls: Iran should worry
Admiral William Fallon's resignation as the United States' top commander in the Middle East removes one of the most outspoken opponents of the George W Bush administration's hard line on Iran. Defense Secretary Robert Gates immediately dismissed as "ridiculous" suggestions that Fallon's departure signaled that the US planned to go to war with Iran, but certainly now "all options" are back on the table. - Gareth Porter (Mar 12, '08)

KEBABBLE
Just what's bugging the Turks?
After 20 years of research, Turkish techies can now encrypt mobile phones past the point of outside surveillance. This, they say, will put Turkey at the forefront of protecting information and privacy. But the era of Ankara's "big ears", with its widespread wire-tapping trickery and subsequent scandals, is not necessarily over. - Fazile Zahir (Mar 12, '08)

COMMENT
Big bang or chaos: What's Israel up to?
Whether Israel's military logic revolved around the "chaos theory" or the "big bang", its iron-fist intervention in Gaza was neither to send a message to the Israeli public nor to "commit genocide". Rather, Israel's plans are regional, with Gaza being a testing ground. - Ramzy Baroud (Mar 11, '08)

A way to stave off Iran sanctions
Indonesia, by abstaining from the United Nations Security Council vote to impose a third round of sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program, showed up many of its fellow travelers in the Non-Aligned Movement. With their two-thirds majority at the UN, NAM states, given the political will, have the power to influence this major international crisis by pre-empting further UN action against Tehran. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Mar 11, '08)

SPENGLER
Should Islam be blamed for 'barbaric' acts?
The issue of Muslim "barbarism", including honor killings, genital mutilation and other forms of violence against women, has risen in prominence in Europe 's political agenda. The question appears to be: Do Muslims commit barbaric acts because they are bad Muslims or because they are good Muslims? (Mar 10, '08)

Iran shifts focus fully on Iraq
Whether it's a part of a secret deal with the United States or not, Iran does appear to be distancing itself from its proxies in the Arab world, at the same time showing a free hand in Iraq. The days of Hezbollah in Lebanon could be numbered. - Sami Moubayed (Mar 10, '08)

An admiral takes on the White House
Admiral William Fallon, the US's top commander in the Middle East, has frequently angered the George W Bush administration by saying that the military option against Iran is "off the table". Fallon believes this is necessary to calm the very regimes, such as Egypt, the administration hopes to enlist to support its anti-Iran line. - Gareth Porter (Mar 10, '08)

In Iran, fashion as protest
Iran's young, urban and increasingly hip "fashionistas" have little time for the state-imposed dress code or its enforcers, the so-called morality police. They'd rather be shopping or grooming at one of Tehran's ultra-trendy boutiques catering to the image obsessed. The more authorities try to enforce the code, the more it seems Iranians want to push the boundaries of personal fashion. (Mar 10, '08)

War is hell - and hellishly expensive
The estimated cost of one week of the United States' global wars is US$3.5 billion. But exactly where is that money going? When Congress passed the latest Pentagon war-fighting supplemental request, it was said to be "for the troops", but a surprisingly small amount actually goes to them. Newfangled weapons, private security contractors and big business eat up a large portion, yet hundreds of millions of dollars are unaccounted for. - William D Hartung (Mar 7, '08)

THE ROVING EYE
As alliances shift, Iran wins. Again
The George W Bush administration promoted a Turkey-Israel axis, a Sunni Arab "axis of fear" and then a Saudi-Israeli nexus, always trying to isolate Iran. None of these concoctions has worked, and there are even hints that Washington and Tehran have concluded a secret deal brokered by Saudi Arabia to hammer out contentious issues. This might be fanciful, but the bottom line is that Iran sees itself as the ultimate victor of the US war on Iraq. - Pepe Escobar (Mar 6, '08)

Iran-Iraq ties show US the way
Tehran's enormous influence in Iraq is there to stay, given Iran's proximity and religious and historical connections, highlighted by President Mahmud Ahmadinejad's recent visit. This leaves the US with little choice but to adjust its anti-Iran policy to accommodate Iran's regional clout. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Mar 6, '08)

Iran gas: China waits as India wavers
The possibility of India buying Iranian gas by way of a pipeline running through mutual neighbor Pakistan has been a talking point for the past decade. Yet as Islamabad and Tehran prepare to sign a gas purchase agreement this month, India is holding back amid security concerns and US disapproval of the plan. Energy-hungry China may seize the opportunity. - Siddharth Srivastava (Mar 5, '08)

Europe alert to triple terror threat
Al-Qaeda has never made a secret of its eagerness to target Europe, but the continent faces a triple threat: al-Qaeda of the Islamic Maghreb, al-Qaeda Pakistan and the rogue, al-Qaeda-affiliated "lone jihadis" whom the French