| |
How the techies will find Saddam's
arsenal
By Todd W John
BANGKOK - Now that the wily Saddam Hussein has
said he will permit the re-entry of United Nations
weapons inspectors into Iraq, many wonder what if
anything the inspection teams will find. Could Saddam
not hide his nuclear, biological or chemical weapons or
implements? To answer such questions, understanding the
technology and methods the inspection teams will
use to locate weapons of mass destruction is essential.
Locating weapons of mass destruction in an
inhospitable environment such as Iraq will indeed be a
daunting task. The country, which is roughly the size of
California, offers inspectors merciless heat, dust and a
limited infrastructure. Inspectors will have to deal
with limited access to electricity and, even with the
explicit wording of UN Resolution 1441 calling for
"unimpeded, unconditional, and unrestricted access" for
the inspection team to undertake their work, they will
still certainly be working with uncooperative and
hostile hosts.
Some of the
basic gear and technology that will be used by
the United Nations Monitoring, Verification
and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC) team will include
high-end laptop computers fitted with advanced Global
Positioning System (GPS) software utilizing encrypted
satellite communications to enable the inspectors to move
quickly, precisely and without oversight of
Iraqi authorities. While Geiger-counter technology may see limited
service in the inspections for radiation detection, the
team tends to regard such tools as unnecessary weight to their packs
as they offer little in exploring the vast regions of
Iraq. The chances of an inspector stumbling upon trace
evidence of radioactive materials are slim to none.
Even more powerful radiation-detection equipment,
usually affixed to helicopters or vehicles to cover more
territory, may prove ineffective, as this technology tends to
be used to detect larger-scale industrial nuclear
processes that Iraq is not ignorant enough to have lying
about.
The UN inspection team will
employ technologies that were not available at the time
of their 1998 departure from Iraq. Portable X-ray devices
and hand-held chemical and biological contaminant
sensors will aid the team in their arduous task of
seeking out nuclear, biological and chemical weapons.
Locating
nuclear devices and accessing Iraq's capabilities will
be the work of highly specialized inspection personnel
who will employ technologies such as X-ray, holographic
imaging and plutonium measurement analysis (PUMA) to
detect the components of a nuclear arsenal. Seeking out
nuclear-arms capabilities relies on a "nuts and bolts"
approach that seeks to identify the 30 or so telltale
parts, such as uranium processed fuel and specialized
machine parts that are essential for the construction of
nuclear weapons. The PUMA technology is an advanced
radionuclide detection tool that uses glass-housed
lithium-6 atoms and cerium ions. The presence of
radionuclides causes a reaction of the neutrons with the
lithium, illuminating the cerium - a state-of-the art,
lightweight and low-energy detection system for finding
components such as plutonium.
However, the nuclear detection and inspection
experts will also rely on good old-fashioned intelligence
in locating for interrogation Iraq's experts in
nuclear science who may be part of a weapons program.
Detecting the presence of chemical and
biological weapons is no easier for the inspection team.
Biological-agent detection is complicated, as some
components are naturally occurring, requiring the UN
experts to analyze samples to determine whether an agent
is natural or weapons-grade. With chemical weapons,
complexity arises in separating the masses of chemicals
used by Iraq's civilian chemical industry, such as
phenol and chlorine, that have justifiable industrial
uses but can also be used for insidious weapons
programs. Finally, facilities used for civilian
biological and chemical purposes can often be quickly
converted to produce devastating agents and pathogens
for warfare.
UN inspection teams armed with
high-tech cameras, sensors and monitoring devices will
combat these difficult detection and assessment tasks by
installing equipment that will alert inspectors to
facility conversion or sudden changes in chemical and
biological compositions in air, soil and water.
An example of biological-agent detection and
classification equipment is a new "DNA chip" technology
developed by California-based Affymetrix that helps
inspectors by storing complex genetic information for
pathogens, allowing quicker analysis and classification
of unknown agents that may be used in biological
weapons. Likewise, Biodetection Enabling Analyte
Delivery System (BEADS) is a technology that was
developed to enable inspectors to make on-the-spot
analysis of samples without the need for painstaking
sample preparation. By allowing analysis of "dirty" or
unprocessed samples, BEADS is a technology that can be
implemented as a stand-alone, unattended monitoring
system.
Conventional methods of determining
Iraq's weapons capabilities will also be augmented by
technology. Research and analysis of Iraqi envoys'
dealings throughout the world in trade and acquisition
of certain materials, chemicals, agents and components
will also be essential in assessing its weapons
capabilities. This analysis five to 10 years ago would
have been far more painstaking without the many
computing tools available to inspectors today.
UN inspections are tentatively scheduled to
begin in the last week of November. They will be
undertaken by inspectors with some of the most advanced
detection technology and assessment methods ever used.
Any attempt by Iraq to conceal any weapons of mass
destruction will likely be futile and could lead to the
"severest consequences", as President George W Bush and
the United States stand ready and seemingly eager to
disarm Saddam by force if necessary. The only question
that will remain if inspections are successful in
weeding out Iraq's weapons programs is whether without a
"regime change" Bush and the US will be satisfied, but
this remains a question that technology cannot answer.
(©2002 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All rights
reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com for information
on our sales and syndication policies.)
|
| |
|
|
 |
|
