How under-the-gun Iran plays it cool
What Iranian leaders dream of is an Iran respected as a major power. To this end, they have little choice, faced with the enmity of the globe's "sole superpower" - its sanctions and its ring of military bases - but to employ a sophisticated counter-encirclement foreign policy. And given President Mahmud Ahmadinejad's place in the country's politico-religious politics, he might be betting on the usefulness of an American air assault. - Pepe Escobar (May 2, '08)

Hillary, the war chick
It was a silly question to begin with, but Democratic hopeful Hillary Clinton jumped in boots and all, saying if she were US president and Iran attacked Israel with nuclear weapons, she would "obliterate" Iran. Clinton's positioning spells Imperial Washington in all its glory - and hubris. (Apr 25, '08)

My militia is more untouchable than yours
Iraq, transfixed by no less than 28 militias, is burning - again. Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki has made a lot of noise about an ongoing government crackdown on these groups. But some militias are more untouchable than others: the Kurdish Peshmergas fall under the radar, while Muqtada al-Sadr's are bang in the line of fire. (Apr 17, '08)

Evil Iran, the new al-Qaeda
The recent opinion piece by senators Joe Lieberman and Lindsey Graham was soothing for George W Bush administration supporters in its assurances that the "surge" in Iraq is successful as well as noble. It also served as a convenient demonizing of Iran. As for the majority of the American public, which has had enough of an endless war, it's nothing but an insult to their collective intelligence. (Apr 9, '08)

The other Iraqi civil war
Even under George W Bush logic, "the terrorists" won and Iran won, this time in the battle of Basra. In the north of Iraq, though, the pieces are falling into place for an alliance between the United States, Israel and a "greater Kurdistan". If only the pesky Iraqi nationalist Sunnis and Shi'ites don't get in the way. (Apr 2, '08)

Shocked, awed and left to rot
US Vice President Dick Cheney is spot on when he talks of "phenomenal changes" in Iraq. Millions of Iraqis have lost their homes, their jobs, their families, their dreams and in countless cases their own lives because of a pre-emptive war. And all the while, anti-American Muqtada al-Sadr will ultimately be the lord of what remains of Iraq. (Mar 19, '08)

Relax and float south stream
The decision by three Central Asian energy exporters to charge Gazprom a higher rate for gas it then channels to Europe looks like a severe blow to the Russian company. But US and European hopes that they might secure some independence from Russia at the other end of the supply chain increasingly look like wishful thinking. (Mar 13, '08)

As alliances shift, Iran wins. Again
The George W Bush administration promoted a Turkey-Israel axis, a Sunni Arab "axis of fear" and then a Saudi-Israeli nexus, always trying to isolate Iran. None of these concoctions has worked, and there are even hints that Washington and Tehran have concluded a secret deal brokered by Saudi Arabia to hammer out contentious issues. This might be fanciful, but the bottom line is that Iran sees itself as the ultimate victor of the US war on Iraq.  (Mar 6, '08)

A long road from Kosovo to Kurdistan
The embrace by Washington of Kosovo's declaration of independence has less to do with democracy than with hard-nosed pragmatism. The US's biggest foreign military base - Camp Bondsteel - since the Vietnam War lies in Kosovo, and the region will be home to a US$1.1 billion pipeline that will get oil from the Caspian Sea ultimately to refineries in the US. Kurds in Iraq, believing Kosovo to be a precedent for an independent Kurdistan, will be disappointed: the US-sanctioned Turkish invasion of northern Iraq has seen to that. - (Feb 28, '08)

Iran-Russia: Strategically on message
A deal that will expand Gazprom's interest in Iran's South Pars gas field and involve daughter company Gazpromneft in an oil project in the country underlines Tehran's expanding role in the region's energy sector and the immunity of Russian gas companies from sanctions emanating from the United States. -(Feb 26, '08)

Slouching towards Petroeurostan
The Iranian International Petroleum Exchange started business this week. It was a low-key affair, yet it could mark a key point in the decline of the US dollar as a world currency while offering oil producers a vital option to using existing middlemen and exchanges that at present control the global oil market. -  (Feb 20, '08)

The state of the (Iraqi) union
It's more a state of disunion in Iraq, where George W Bush's invasion has left a divided nation in anger, sorrow and shambles. Whether his successor is Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton - or anyone else - they are not willing to defend progressive ideas and detail how they realistically plan to confront the quagmire. - (Jan 29, '08)

'Our' dictator gets away with it
The embrace of President George W Bush and President General Pervez Musharraf endures. Pakistan and its people caught in the middle are left to watch their country burn, and contemplate the worst-case scenario of partition. (Nov 27, '07)

Iraq: Call an air strike
There might be less violence in Baghdad, but that's because sectarian clashes have died down as there are virtually no more neighborhoods to be ethnically cleansed. And US engagements are declining, but only because troops are spending more time in the bases. Now, whenever there is a mission in Baghdad, it inevitably means an air strike. (Nov 9, '07)

Bush's Turkey shoot
The astute Turkish Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, knew before he set foot in Washington that a sound bite would be about all President George W Bush would have to offer on the explosive Turkey vs Kurdistan Workers' Party crisis. Now Erdogan will wait - for just a little while - and if nothing moves, Turkey will strike northern Iraq, hard, without consulting Washington. (Nov 6, '07)

Double-crossing in Kurdistan
The United States plan for Iraq all along has been no less than a "soft" partition, including an autonomous Kurdish mini-state and Shi'ite and Sunni regions. Even Turkey had signed on to this, provided the Iraqi Kurds cracked down on Kurdish militants striking into Turkey. With the militants running wild, though, Ankara has to take care of matters itself - and risk throwing the whole grand scheme into jeopardy, including the US's designs on Iran. (Nov 1, '07)

The Turks are coming
The United States military commander in northern Iraq has made it clear that he will do "absolutely nothing" about reining in Kurdish rebels in the area. This leaves Turkey with no option but to take matters into its own hands. The major plot, though, is the future of Iraq, or more precisely, the partition of Iraq. (Oct 29, '07)

'War on terror' is now war on Iran
In the face of new United States sanctions, the Iranian companies and individuals affiliated with the now "terrorist" Revolutionary Guards Corps will have plenty of opportunities for doing business with Russia, China or Arab monarchies, or they may resort to the black market. But given the pervasive business and national security influence of the Guards, by branding them as terrorists Washington has declared war on the Iranian power elite. (Oct 26, '07)

Attack Iran and you attack Russia
On the international front, Iran and Russia appear to have agreed on a plan to nullify the George W Bush administration's relentless drive towards launching a preemptive strike against Iran. On the home front, though, differences between President Mahmud Ahmadinejad and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei widen. There can only be one winner. (Oct 25, '07)

Iran jails its conscience
Iran's leading human rights activist is in solitary confinement in Tehran's sinister Evin prison. Tehran is in need of a new public relations strategy. Just when it most needs friends, it sends Emadeddin Baghi to jail - not exactly a brilliant move. (Oct 17, '07)

It's the resistance, stupid
Coalitions Washington didn't count on are growing in Iraq with formerly unlikely alliances between Sunnis and Shi'ites being made, with all opposed to US super-bases, a federalized Iraq and oil thirsty occupiers in general.  (Oct 16, '07)

General Petraeus in his labyrinth
The US commander in Iraq, General David Petraeus, continues to build an ever growing heart of darkness in Baghdad and, eventually he hopes, in Tehran. The latest addition to his arsenal in the plan to attack the "terrorist" Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps inside Iran is a former small terrorist group once sheltered by Saddam Hussein and now by the US, and the Kurdish PKK and PJAK groups now stirring trouble in Iran, as well as Turkey, from Iraqi Kurdistan. (Oct 12, '07)

Che lives
Forty years after he was executed at the behest of the CIA after failing miserably to incite revolution in Bolivia, Ernesto "Che" Guevera's image and inspiration both eclipse anything he accomplished in life. From Bengal to Brazil and all points in between the myth has overtaken the man. (Oct 9, '07)

A divided Iraq just doesn't add up
Although the United States Senate's vote to split Iraq into a loose, three-region sectarian federation is non-binding, it reflects sentiment both in the US and in sections of Iraq about what might be in store. Yet it would be an unmitigated disaster, at best leading to partition, at worst to ethnic cleansing. (Oct 3, '07)

The southern axis of evil
After Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad's frosty reception in New York, the red carpets were rolled out for him in Bolivia and Venezuela, Iran's key strategic allies in South America. The trade deals Ahmadinejad signed are significant, as is his realization of which way the winds are blowing in a new world order. (Oct 2, '07)

Buddha vs the barrel of a gun
With the United Nations as his stage, US President George W Bush announced to the world his decision to slap new economic sanctions on Myanmar. This is just for internal American consumption. The outcome of the showdown between thousands of Buddhist monks and the military rulers in Myanmar will in all likelihood be decided in China. (Sep 26, '07)

'Hitler' does New York
Despite his demonization by the White House, US media and his Columbia University host, Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad's skillful and manipulative Big Apple blitz has wowed the audience that really matters: worldwide Muslim public opinion. For those who listened, unlike the many who simply brand the man as too evil to speak, Ahmadinejad coolly turned American disinformation on its head to his own advantage. (Sep 25, '07)

Welcome to Planet Gaza
The Israeli cabinet's edict to declare the Gaza Strip a "hostile territory" and slowly grind its population even further down is only the latest strategy to sabotage any attempt by Hamas to govern the Strip properly. It's also a template for US logic in Iraq. (Sep 21, '07)

French-kissing the war on Iran
Mohamed ElBaradei, the chief of the United Nations' nuclear watchdog, has dropped his diplomatic demeanor in an attempt to defuse French comments over "preparing for the worst" - war on Iran. ElBaradei has already upset Western powers led by the United States by brokering an agreement with Iran over its nuclear program. Now he is up against a France playing messenger to big (energy) business. (Sep 18, '07)

Mr Bush, your sheikh is dead
Sheikh Abdul Sattar Abu Risha, killed by a roadside bomb in Iraq on Thursday, was the congenial face of the United States' efforts to engage Sunnis in the reconciliation process with the Shi'ite-led government. The prime suspect is al-Qaeda, which the sheikh's alliance was fighting with weapons and money supplied by the US. But Abu Risha had other enemies, especially among Sunnis whose main goal remains ending the occupation, not befriending it. (Sep 14, '07)

Behind the Anbar myth
One of the key arguments in General David Petraeus' presentation to the US Congress this week was the close collaboration between the occupation and Sunni tribal leaders in al-Anbar province. Nothing could be further from the truth: what success there is in Anbar is not due to the general's wily ways, but to an Iraqi sheikh. And even then, US occupation forces remain the main enemy. (Sep 13, '07)

Sheikh Osama and the iPod general
Both Osama bin Laden and General David Petraeus aim to seduce multiple layers of constituencies, but above all US public opinion. The al-Qaeda leader revels in what he views as the United States' failed imperial project and promotes a global "protest movement". Washington's top man in Iraq still sees success in the "surge". How different things might have been had Petraeus been set loose on bin Laden's trail six years ago. (Sep 11, '07)

From al-Qaeda to al-Quds
The only guiding logic of the US far right in power is permanent war and any excuse will do for President George W Bush to attack Iran. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps will retaliate and all of Iran, out of Persian national pride, will rally behind the supreme leader, President Mahmud Ahmadinejad and the theocratic police state. So much for regime change. (Sep 6, '07)

Bush's brand-new poodle
With former British prime minister Tony Blair put out to new pastures, US President George W Bush has a newer, leaner, meaner, adrenaline-packed "Made in France" version of his favorite ally in all things "war on terror". President Nicolas Sarkozy has wasted no time in joining the demonize-Iran campaign, and is taking trans-Atlantic entente to new levels. (Aug 29, '07)

Welcome to Hillary's wars
With her eye on the US presidency, Hillary Clinton is jockeying for a macho political position. Whether she means it or not, the reality if she becomes president is that she knows the US powers-that-be, even if they are in decline, will never accept a majority-Shi'ite Iraqi government aligned with an Islamic Republic of Iran. (Aug 23, '07)

Highlights of the (not so) silly season
All is not well in France, even though its new president is the best-loved Frenchman in the US since Lafayette, its newspapers have simply erased the Iraq war from their pages, and mini-Eiffel Towers made in China for 10 cents each and sold by immigrant Africans in front of the real thing (which itself is surrounded by Chinese-owned real estate) can be had for a mere US$5. Meanwhile in Iran, things are even sillier - and nastier. (Aug 15, '07)

We all live in an Antonioni world
Decades before mobile phones connected us with everything except the dry cleaners, Michelangelo Antonioni, the great Italian film director who died this week at 94, was focused on what is worth being communicated. He was not only the great painter of the cataclysmic 1960s, he was the painter of the world we now live in. Pepe Escobar bids him buona notte. (Aug 2, '07)

Fun and games on the Arab Riviera
What better place than the French Riviera for President George W Bush to hold his proposed Middle East peace summit? The region's movers and shakers own villas in the quaintly named "California" estate, where they escape the scorching summers of the Middle Eastern desert. Pepe Escobar explores a corner of Europe divided not by Christian vs Muslim, but by ultra-haves and aspiring have-somethings. (Jul 20, '07)

COMMENT
Iraq, the new Israel
While US President George W Bush fiddles, Baghdad continues to burn, fueled by divide-and-conquer tactics inspired by Israel's occupation of Palestine.  (Jul 5, '07)

COMMENT
Hamastan and Red Zoneistan
Gaza is a gulag. The West Bank is a series of unconnected ghettoes. Baghdad is now a gulag. Iraq has been reduced to a series of unconnectable ghettoes. "Terrorist" Gaza has been already downgraded to Hamastan. The Red Zone - that is, real Baghdad - is actually Red Zoneistan. (Jun 28, '07)

Levitate the Pentagon
The year was 1967, and Americans were advised to turn on, tune in and drop out. Forty years later, the slogan might as well be turn off, tune out and drop dead. They missed an opportunity then to levitate the Pentagon, and so the only way to stop the insanity of Iraq, and probably soon Iran, is a thorough mobilization of public opinion, as in Vietnam. Alas, there are no second acts in this drama.  (Jun 18, '07)

Welcome to the summer of hate
Forty years ago, when The Beatles released their Sgt Pepper's album, the world seemed to be singing in tune. It marked the beginning of the Summer of Love, even if it included Vietnam War escalation. Today, we have Patti Smith singing covers of The Beatles, Iraq instead of Vietnam, and a possible attack on Iran. Call it the summer of hate. (Jun 1, '07)

The second coming of Saladin
Political repression, social inequality and economic disaster across the Middle East are the consequences of decades of "divide and rule" imperialist meddling followed by  rapacious rule by local elites. Yet the potential for unity in the Muslim world is not a chimera. Who will be the 21st century equivalent of Saladin, the greatest warrior of Islam? Such a one is needed to reunite the ummah. (May 17, '07)

ROVING IN THE RED ZONE
The true heart of darkness
Iraq is and will remain for years to come the real heart of darkness of the early 21st century. Forget about Russia or China; now, finally, the Bush administration, the military-industrial complex and assorted armchair warriors can finally be assured that the US has found an enemy for life. (May 16, '07)

The 'dirty thieves' of Sadr City
Once the jewel of the Middle East, al-Mustansariya University struggles on amid the chaos of Baghdad. Students hold out for a mostly worthless degree in hopes it will help them find jobs outside of Iraq. Once the meeting place of wealthy Arabs, it is now mostly made up of lower-class Shi'ites, which the former elite looked down on as "dirty thieves" of Sadr City. (May 15, '07)

ROVING IN THE RED ZONE
'The cultivation of life'
Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, despite what many believe, does not have the "privilege" to issue a religious decree that could bring the US occupation in Iraq to an abrupt end. Rather, leading Shi'ite cleric Sheikh Mohammed al-Roubaie tells Pepe Escobar, people should be more spiritual. It's as simple as that. (May 11, '07)

ROVING IN THE RED ZONE
Leave, or we will behead you
Dora was a prosperous middle-class neighborhood of Baghdad by the Tigris, rich in fruit and with a large Christian population. Now it's a favorite stomping ground of al-Qaeda in Iraq, and a vortex of ethnic and confessional cleansing. The few remaining Christians have a simple choice: either convert to Islam or pay a US$1,600 fee. Even then, the chances of being killed are high. (May 10, '07)

ROVING IN THE RED ZONE
Inside Sadr City
The almost 3 million people in Sadr City, an immense Shi'ite slum in eastern Baghdad of ramshackle one-story buildings covered with dust, exude a resignation born of sadness. But at least they feel safe, Hussein al-Motery of the municipality tells Pepe Escobar. Unless, of course, Amrika attempts the Pentagon dream of smashing the place into submission. (May 9, '07)

ROVING IN THE RED ZONE
Back to 'Saddam without a mustache'
The true measure of the overwhelming Iraqi tragedy is that people in Baghdad are now yearning for an ersatz Saddam Hussein. For many, former premier Iyad Allawi is just such a man. "We have cooperation with all national groups," Allawi's spokesman tells Pepe Escobar. What he does not say is that he also has the support of the US. (May 8, '07)

ROVING IN THE RED ZONE
The man who might save Iraq
Sheikh Abdul Satter Abu Risha doesn't mince his words. Al-Qaeda in Iraq, now his bitter enemy, "has abused our traditions and generosity" and, he alleges, they even "take drugs". The Sunni leader tells Pepe Escobar about the powerful coalition of tribes in al-Anbar province he heads, with visions even of a Sunni coalition fighting alongside a predominantly Shi'ite Iraqi government against Salafi jihadi terror. (May 4, '07)

ROVING IN THE RED ZONE
What Muqtada wants
All that the Sadrists want is a timetable for the US withdrawal from Iraq, Nasr al-Roubaie, Shi'ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr's top man in government, tells Pepe Escobar. This struggle is both "peaceful and armed", he admits, and there is a possibility of an Iraqi shadow cabinet being formed uniting Sadrists and Sunni nationalists. But whatever happens, Muqtada remains the kingmaker. (May 3, '07)

ROVING IN THE RED ZONE
Masri: Dead or alive, the terror continues
News that Abu al-Masri, the Egyptian-born leader of al-Qaeda in Iraq, had been killed was ecstatically greeted in the 3-million-strong Shi'ite slum of Sadr City in Baghdad. The joy might be premature, as the death has not been confirmed. But true or not, the killing of Masri will make no difference. One, two, a thousand Masris are waiting in the wings, and al-Qaeda's strategy of non-stop bloody bombings to keep inciting Sunnis to attack Shi'ites won't change.  (May 2, '07)

ROVING IN THE RED ZONE
ATol's "Roving Eye", Pepe Escobar, is back in Iraq and in the Red Zone - that is, everything outside "Fortress USA", the Green Zone. This is the first of his unembedded, non-Kevlar-protected, bodyguardless reports.
Baghdad up close and personal
Having dodged a bullet but not arrest by the Mehdi Army militia, Escobar witnesses the grand-scale mayhem and the minutiae of misery of Baghdad. In the deadly daily embrace of the Red Zone, the surreal overlaps Hollywood-style special effects while ethnic cleansing proceeds neighborhood by neighborhood and the bereaved are told to visit the market to find the missing limbs of their dead. (May 1, '07)

'All life is waiting'
For one attractive young Iraqi war widow, life these days is waiting, waiting, waiting in the consular section of the Iraqi Embassy in Damascus, where she and other desperate people seek that lucky piece of paper that might allow them to go to Portugal, or Spain, or anywhere. Anywhere except the living hell of Baghdad. "They destroyed our country. Why, why?" asks another. (Apr 26, '07)

We build walls, not nations
The 5-kilometer-long, 3.7-meter-high concrete wall being built to contain the Sunni neighborhood of Adhamiyah in Baghdad will fail, even if Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki doesn't manage to get it stopped. The US cannot cut off the head of the resistance in Iraq - simply because there is no head. Although talking to the nine recently united leading Sunni Arab resistance groups would be a start. (Apr 23, '07)

Hezbollah's big challenge
In Iraq, the US pits its own Shi'ite collaborators against "other" Shi'ites and assorted Sunnis in Iraq. In Lebanon, meanwhile, the US places its Sunni clients against Shi'ites, with help from jihadis linked to al-Qaeda. Hezbollah's challenge is to prevent this from developing into a regional Sunni-Shi'ite war. (Apr 18, '07)

The Baghdad gulag
The million-man Shi'ite march in Najaf coupled with the spectacular bombing of the Iraqi Parliament in the Green Zone truly spells the end of the US in Iraq. The only thing left is to turn Baghdad into a cluster of self-contained gated communities - a gulag - where the few can feel safe from the chaos around them. But isn't the Green Zone a gated community? (Apr 13, '07)

Night bus from Baghdad
In the mythology of US neo-cons, Syria is a sanctuary where jihadis rest and regroup before heading into Iraq on another bombing run. The reality is quite the opposite, as one can see at the Syria-Iraq border. The traffic is all one-way - in the direction of Syria, where tens of thousands of ordinary Iraqis now live a precarious, but safe, life far from the hell of Baghdad. (Apr 12, '07)

Who profits from a 'gas OPEC'?
A meeting in the tiny Persian Gulf emirate of Qatar may be signaling the birth of a new cartel grouping countries controlling 73% of the world's gas and 42% of production. The prospect is shaking the wealthy, gas-dependent countries of the West to the core. (Apr 10, '07)

In the heart of Little Fallujah
The hundreds of thousands of Iraqi refugees in Syria have created their own enclaves, from Little Fallujah to Little Mosul, where many have set up businesses. They pay in US dollars, dance to the tune of their own music and share one desire: to return to an Iraq free of occupying forces. Madam Speaker Nancy Pelosi would have learned a lot if she had taken a stroll in Little Fallujah. (Apr 5, '07)

British pawns in an Iranian game
The Iranian seizure of 15 British sailors may be much cleverer than it appears. Oil has moved above US$60 a barrel as a result of the incident. And if Tehran drags out proceedings, the Shi'ites in southern Iraq may take the hint and accelerate a confrontation, and even start merging with strands of the Sunni resistance. (Mar 28, '07) 

BOOK REVIEW
The man who would be king
Rumsfeld: His Rise, Fall and Catastrophic Legacy by Andrew Cockburn
A fitting way to "celebrate" shock and awe, the bombastic opening of the most astonishing blunder in recent military/geopolitical history, would be to read this book about the life of Donald Rumsfeld, a life spent pursuing personal grandeur at enormous cost to entire nations, including his own. (Mar 20, '07)

The waterboarded evildoer
Just how much of Khalid Shaikh Mohammad's confession of terror attacks is true is a moot point. What does matter is the number of jihadis al-Qaeda's former operations chief taught. Probably dozens, and they are lurking in the shadows, ready to inflict blowback to kingdom come. (Mar 16, '07)

What drives biofuel Bush?
The prospect of a Green Saudi Arabia in America's "back yard" has US President George W Bush and Brazilian President Lula da Silva rubbing their hands together with glee after the signing of a potentially very lucrative biofuels agreement that could lead to a new form of colonialism in Latin America and the Caribbean.(Mar 13, '07)

The fall guy in Iraq
Even as the "surge" proceeds in Baghdad, the US is quietly moving to implement "Plan B", which would be nothing less than a coup d'etat pushing the hapless Nuri al-Maliki aside and installing former CIA asset and neo-con favorite Iyad Allawi back in as a dictator. Nothing less than a return to strongman rule will restore order, Washington believes. (Mar 12, '07)

Bush down south
US President George W Bush is headed Brasilia way to try to counter the growing influence of Venezuelan leader Hugo Chavez. He might as well stay home. Chavez is the king of Latin America, and the number of potential US allies among the pseudo-populist regimes, such as in Brazil, is diminishing by the day. (Mar 7, '07)

An ill wind in Iran
All is not well in Iran, specifically the health of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. One proposed succession plan involves the appointment of a triumvirate, rather than turn to the next in line, former president Hashemi Rafsanjani. Such a move, though, would lead to the isolation of President Mahmud Ahmadinejad.(Mar 1, '07)

US's Iraq oil grab is a done deal
Under draft oil legislation approved by the Iraqi cabinet, the country's oil wealth will, in theory, be distributed directly to Kurds in the north, Shi'ites in the south and Sunnis in the center. In effect, the massive reserves will be under the iron rule of a fuzzy council boasting "a panel of oil experts from inside and outside Iraq". That is, nothing less than predominantly US Big Oil executives. -  (Feb 27, '07)

The hottest party in the galaxy
They're on patrol on the hot streets of Rio, where the only heat-seeking missiles around are the curvaceous Brazilian bombshells, and they are not to be dodged. Forget the Sambadrome and head for the supercharged blocos, full of pickpockets and chambermaids dressed up as Nordic goddesses. The Green Zone was never like this. (Feb 21, '07)

Iran, the EU and the Swiss way out
The Swiss propose that Iran stops feeding its centrifuges with processed uranium hexafluoride gas so that negotiations over Tehran's nuclear program can resume. Iran has indicated a willingness to talk, yet all the heavily disunited European Union appears capable of doing is shooting itself in the foot. (Feb 14, '07)

Slouching toward D-day
The battle for Baghdad has officially begun. It's a double bill involving suppression of Sunni militants and defanging Sadr City, the vast Shi'ite enclave that staunchly backs cleric Muqtada al-Sadr and his Mehdi Army. This counterinsurgency against classic guerrilla tactics with popular support is doomed. Inevitably, Iran will be blamed. (Feb 8, '07)

A massacre and a new civil war
The massacre at Najaf points to a Baghdad-concocted operation designed to torpedo an increasingly popular, non-sectarian Sunni and Shi'ite Iraqi nationalist alliance that is anti-US and anti-Iran. In the process, yet another civil war could emerge - "Arab" Shi'ites against "Persian" Shi'ites. (Feb 2, '07)

The 'axis of fear' is born
Given the disaster of occupied Iraq, the Bush administration has a new scapegoat: exit al-Qaeda, enter Iran. The Sunni Arab "axis of fear" is merrily playing along, stoking the chaos on which the US underpins its plans for a "new Middle East" - internal sectarianism and state-to-state sectarianism. (Feb 1, '07)

The state of the (dis)union
While US President George W Bush's State of the Union address was a non-event in terms of a new strategy for the Middle East, what the "enemy" is thinking has been personified by al-Qaeda's No 2, Sunni Arab Dr Ayman al-Zawahiri, and Iraqi Shi'ite nationalist leader Muqtada al-Sadr. But it is unclear who will be the ultimate winner of the escalated conflict in Iraq, only that the losers will be the Iraqi poor - especially as the Pentagon is on course to launch an air war over Baghdad. (Jan 24, '07)

Ahmadinejad be damned
While Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad has been traipsing around South America hatching energy plots, all is not well on the home front. Ahmadinejad is subject to crossfire from conservatives and reformers alike, with the former particularly upset over his handling of the nuclear dossier and wanting to rein him in. Washington might need to start manufacturing another "new Hitler". (Jan 18, '07)

Somalia: Afghanistan remixed
Ethiopia's US-backed invasion of Somalia gives the US a client regime in the highly strategic Horn of Africa. But it will also generate a whirlwind of blowback, making Somalia the new Afghanistan and also the new Iraq - just one more battlefront in the lands of Islam. (Jan 12, '07)

Surging toward the holy oil grail
If a new oil law friendly to Western business is passed in Iraq, the chances of Shi'ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr's Mehdi Army joining the Sunni resistance will increase dramatically. Thus the preemptive, two-pronged escalation by President George W Bush on the war front - against both Muqtada and nationalist Sunnis. (Jan 11, '07)

Iran's crocodile rocked
Moderates, with unexpected gains in the weekend's elections for the influential Council of Experts, have dealt Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad and his extreme-right mentor, Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi (also known as "the crocodile"), a hard blow. But the real winner is Supreme Leader Ali al-Khamenei, whose vast powers remain undiluted. (Dec 18, '06)

US staying the course for Big Oil in Iraq
One solution to the Iraqi tragedy would be for the Bush administration to give up its quest for the country's oil, with no preconditions. This is not going to happen, which is why there can be no firm timeline for a complete US withdrawal. A new Iraqi oil law being drafted will open the industry to foreigners, and US troops will be needed to defend Big Oil's investment. (Dec 13, '06) 

Bush, OPEC and Chavez of Arabia
The Bolivarian Revolution of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, recently re-elected in a landslide, is all about building an egalitarian society - and snubbing a nose at the US. No wonder Washington is apprehensive. South America is the only region in the world where progressive ideas are flourishing. (Dec 6, '06)

Looking beyond the 'axis of evil'
With President Mahmud Ahmadinejad hosting his Iraqi counterpart in Iran (minus Syria) and President George W Bush due to meet Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, the scramble for solutions to the Iraqi debacle continues. In the meantime, all options remain open - from a return of the Ba'athists to an attack on the US heart in Iraq, the Green Zone. (Nov 28, '06)

Following the yellow BRIC road
After his re-election on Sunday, Brazilian President Lula da Silva has some tough choices to make. His country has been identified along with Russia, India and China as one of the great emerging economic powers of the 21st century. But the path to prosperity has many forks in the road. (Oct 31, '06)

'Stability first': Newspeak for rape of Iraq
It's not the first time Baghdad has been sacked. Genghis Khan's grandson did it, and so did Tamerlan. In the good old days, they built pyramids of skulls. This time around, they coin nice names, like "Stability First" and "Redeploy and Contain". "Staying the Course" is out of favor, but no matter, they all amount to the same thing: rape. (Oct 26, '06)

The other September 11
In 1973, South America had its own September 11 when Salvador Allende was overthrown in a US-inspired coup by Augusto Pinochet. This set the stage for the transcontinental Operation Condor, a Latino war "of" terror that eliminated thousands of people who were or might have become political adversaries. (Sep 11, '06)

Part 2: Lost paraguayos: Yankees are coming In fact, they're already there - in the heart of the Amazon, US Special Forces welcomed last year by Paraguay's Bush-friendly president, and eyed with suspicion by the region's populist governments. It all comes back once again to the 21st-century energy wars. This is the concluding article in a two-part report. (Aug 3, '06)

Part 1: Hezbollah south of the border
The Pentagon insists that South America's Triple Border region, where Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay meet near the spectacular Iguacu Falls, is crammed with terrorists funneling cash to the likes of Hezbollah and al-Qaeda. The place is a dizzying black void of contraband, narco-trafficking, weapons smuggling, money laundering, car theft, piracy and corruption - but where, oh where, are the terrorists? (Aug 2, '06)

The spirit of resistance
Hezbollah's asymmetrical war effort is absorbing everything thrown at it. Resistance is fueled by a mix of beggar's banquet anger, creative military solutions and Shi'ite martyr spirit. The practical result is that Hezbollah is even more popular all over the Arab street. (Jul 25, '06)

Lebanon left for dead
Events in Lebanon fall into the pattern of a master plan drawn up by US neo-conservatives for Israel 10 years ago. The "getting rid of Saddam Hussein" part has already been accomplished. The degradation of the Palestinians is ongoing. The "destabilizing of Syria in Lebanon" took place last year. The next step would be hitting at both Syria and Iran via Lebanon. (Jul 20, '06)

Leviathan run amok
Israel's tactic of trying to turn the Lebanese as a whole against Hezbollah seems to be doomed. Hezbollah is betting that Lebanon will be able to absorb the extreme limits of collective punishment it is receiving - and the resistance movement will come out stronger than ever. (Jul 18, '06)

Russia and Iran lead the new energy game
This weekend's G8 summit in Russia is ostensibly about energy security. But Russian President Vladimir Putin's announcement a month ago of support for a pipeline from Iran to Pakistan and India means that Moscow and Tehran have already positioned themselves as the key geopolitical players in the Pipelineistan game, and thus the guarantors of energy security to Asia. (Jul 13, '06)

And all for a little round ball ...
For a month, billions of people, regardless of the color of their skin, where they come from, their political ideology or religion, can forget about the "war on terror", Iran's nuclear threat, or anything else that bothers them. It's time for the football World Cup, a celebration of the biggest and most profitable show on Earth. (Jun 8, '06)

Dubai lives the post-oil Arab dream
Dubai will soon boast the world's tallest building, the largest hotel, the largest this and the largest that. It's well on its way to becoming the first modern Arab metropolis, but in this triumph for globalization, the whole glittering facade is supported by an underclass of "invisible" foreign workers with no rights.(Jun 6, '06)

The Gazprom nation
Russia has an auspicious confluence of factors: its fabulous energy reserves, on which Europe is largely dependent, and strong Asian interest in these reserves. This is the era of pipeline power, where geopolitical turmoil is intimately linked to gas pipeline routes. Russia and its giant Gazprom company are sitting pretty. (May 25, '06)

BOOK REVIEW
The accumulation of the wretched
Planet of Slums by Mike Davis
Urbanologist Mike Davis has painted a portrait of the future, and it isn't pretty: "a grim world largely cut off from the subsistence and solidarity of the countryside ... disconnected from the cultural and political life of the traditional city". What Davis describes is today's reality in Baghdad and Sao Paulo; tomorrow, it is likely, Dhaka, Jakarta and Mumbai. (May 19, '06)

Iran impasse: Make gas, not bombs
Iran's national interests are best served by selling portions of its huge natural gas reserves to energy-starved Europe, not in building an atomic bomb. Europe's best interests are served by lessening dependence on Russian gas. The mullahs in Tehran seem to understand this; now it's a matter of pounding some sense into other factions. (May 8, '06)

The axis of gas
Three South American countries are leading the drive for a South American energy grid similar to what's proposed in Asia. Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez sees the US$23 billion project as more than an energy source, it's about jobs and eliminating poverty - and not being pushed around by the US. (May 2, '06)

What's really happening in Tehran
Smiling and articulate, Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad locked horns with the international media on Monday, showing a face somewhat different from that of a suicidal nut bent on confronting the US, as he is often portrayed. Yet the president leads just one of four key factions in a do-or-die power play, and he is following his own agenda, which is not the same as the Iranian theocratic leadership's. (Apr 25, '06)

The war on Iran
Iranians know that if the US bombs the country's nuclear sites, they are maintained by Russians; that in effect would mean a declaration of war against Moscow. Iranians also know that Shi'ites in Iraq would turn extreme heat on the occupation forces. And Iran has the power to halt all oil supplies from the shores of the Persian Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz. (Apr 12, '06)

Real men go to Khuzestan
Even as the tanks were rolling into Baghdad, a hard core in the Bush administration believed that the real target should have been Iran or, more precisely, its restive Arab-dominated Khuzestan region. Tehran charges that, indeed, US and British special forces are stirring up trouble there. If so, they have made a serious miscalculation. (Apr 5, '06)

Iran reacts to the UN
Iranians of all stripes agree that their nation is a victim of Western propaganda and double standards. They're adamant about their right to a civilian nuclear program. (Mar 31, '06)

The ultimate martyr
In the Islamic Revolution scale of values, to die as a martyr is an even greater honor than to live as a good, practicing Muslim. Yet the last thing Iran's clerical-political establishment needs at this moment is for President Mahmud Ahmadinejad to martyr the nation into the status of ultimate global outcast. It might be time for Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to step in. (Mar 30, '06)

Messages of hope from Iran
Persians pride themselves on molding Islam from the Arabs into a much more refined faith. While Arab governments are basically mum, Iran has taken the initiative to counteract what is perceived as Islam and religion under fire, and to remedy the fact that Islam is not getting its message across to the West. (Mar 27, '06)

A frenzied Persian new year
Even though Iran is slowing down for New Year celebrations, the political temperature remains high. Tehran is closely watching as the UN Security Council debates its nuclear program, while proposed Iran-US talks on Iraq have done nothing to erase suspicions on both sides. And Iran has its own terror problem to deal with. (Mar 21, '06)

Irreversible Iranians
The US strategy of trying to separate the Iranian people from the regime seems doomed to failure. Nationalist fervor regarding Tehran's nuclear rights is at a peak - and cannily manipulated by the government. What the rest of the world thinks, too bad. (Mar 17, '06)

In the heart of Pipelineistan
Oil and gas executives gathered in Tehran for a major conference see the international row over Iran's nuclear program as a passing phase. There are much bigger issues: the total energy interdependence of the Middle East and East Asia, in which Iran will play a pivotal role. (Mar 16, '06)

The old lovers' nuclear tango
The diplomatic dancing over Iran's nuclear program has expanded to a tango for two couples: the US plus the European Three on one side, and Russia and the head of the UN nuclear watchdog on the other. Tehran waits transfixed in the middle. (Mar 7, '06)

'Get out' ringing in Thaksin's ears
Students, trade unionists and teachers are mingling with peasants, Buddhist fundamentalists and middle-class families with their portable kitchens at rallies calling for the resignation of Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. "Thaksin! - Get out!" is their mantra. But it's falling on deaf ears, for now. (Feb 27, '06)

Goodbye Iraq, hello Afghanistan
With Ibrahim Jaafari being given another shot at the premiership, Iraq will have a fractious and weak central government, and go the same way as Afghanistan. Warlords, religious or secular, and tribal sheikhs will defend their mini-states armed to their teeth, and criminal gangs will run parallel to death squads. Which suits Washington fine. (Feb 14, '06)

Thailand's spreading yellow tide
They massed in Bangkok in their tens of thousands and they draped themselves in yellow to hear media mogul Sondhi Limthongkul's latest allegations against Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. And they were not disappointed, even if their countrymen were kept in the dark.  (Feb 6, '06)

But it's so cold in Alaska
Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad's verbal assaults on Israel are most likely aimed at an internal audience and are a part of a broader progression toward self-chosen isolation. But this does not remove the fact that billions of dollars of public relations could not have landed such a prize to Israel's hardliners.  (Dec 15, '05)

We vote, then we throw you out
Iraq may well be on its way to extinction after Thursday's elections. Partition is already de facto in the four provinces of Kurdistan, and the nine Shi'ite provinces are earmarked for the same. The US would be left with little more than the Green Zone - which is not exactly an oil lake - and a lot of empty desert. (Dec 14, '05)

The politics of shopping 
It was people power "lite" as media entrepreneur Sondhi Limthongkul's weekly talk show in a Bangkok park - in which he once again focused on corruption - had stiff competition from the opening nearby of a megamall. People power "heavy" won't happen until they discover their purchasing power only allows them to window-shop. (Dec 12, '05)

The king steps in  
Following some wise words from the king of Thailand, much of the heat has been taken out of the bitter row between Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his most vocal critic, media entrepreneur Sondhi Limthongkul. The premier is dropping a slew of lawsuits amounting to US$50 million against Sondhi, who, nevertheless, still has some causes to fight. (Dec 6, '05)

Full power on the Arabian Sea 
Wily taxi drivers in Mumbai, demented, horn-honking buses on the roads of Kerala, computer whizzes in the backs of shacks, commuters hanging from train windows dodging lethal poles, they're all on "full power", living out India's new mantra. (Dec 2, '05)

An appeal to the Thai masses
Ever since the political talk show of Thai media tycoon, Sondhi Limthongkul, went mobile after being run off the air by the government, it has snowballed into a political protest movement. Sondhi wants the constitution rewritten to curb the abuse of state power. Now the matter is in the hands of the people. (Nov 28, '05)

The occupiers' trial
With Saddam Hussein finally due in court, his defense team will argue that the trial has no jurisdiction because it has been created by an occupying power which has no right to change the legal system of an occupied country. In many ways, it's the occupation itself that is in the dock.  (Oct 19, '05)

How to constitute a civil war
If the draft Iraqi constitution is rejected on Saturday, the different strands of the Sunni Arab resistance - as well as al-Qaeda in Iraq - will be encouraged, because, for them, this is the occupiers' piece of paper. But even if the constitution is approved, the same thing will happen. There couldn't have been a more constitutional way to civil war. (Oct 14, '05)

Fear and loathing in militia hell
The law of the jungle rules in Baghdad, coupled with the collapse of social life, as rival militias control the city, day and night, often dressed up as police. This is the visible legacy of the occupation on the eve of a popular vote on a constitution. (Oct 11, '05)

'WAR ON TERROR' REVISITED
The conquest of Southwest Asia
Even before Katrina showed the emperor to have no clothes, there was growing unease that the Bush administration was subsidizing al-Qaeda to the tune of $300 billion and counting, in American taxpayers' money, by transforming Iraq into a preferred training ground for terrorists. So forget about "war on terror"; the war is mutating into what it was always meant to be - the conquest of Southwest Asia first, and Eurasia second. -  (Oct 7, '05)

Who's in charge, Qom or Najaf?
The renaissance of the holy Iraqi city of Najaf - home of the Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani - is problematic. If the center of gravity of Shi'ism goes back from Qom in Iran to where it was before - in Iraq - Iran's influence will be tremendously reduced. (Sep 30, '05)

The myth of the Shi'ite crescent
Shi'ites believe that the nation-state is just a stage on the road to the final triumph of Shi'ism. But to go beyond this stage to establish a vast Shi'ite crescent spanning the region it's necessary to reinforce the nation-state and its Shi'ite sanctuary, which happens to be Iran. But not all Shi'ites are in a position, or are willing, to help realize this goal. (Sep 29, '05)

Welcome to civil war
While US and Iraqi army troops were chasing shadows in the town of Tal Afar, Salafi jihadis mounted deadly and highly visible attacks against Shi'ites in Baghdad to coincide with a call by al-Qaeda's Musab al-Zarqawi for all-out war on Shi'ites in Iraq. (Sep 15, '05)

Travels in Ahmadinejadland
He is honest, a simple man who looks after the poor and is a regular visitor to the mosque. Without fail, these are the attributes that the mass of President Mahmud Ahmadinejad's supporters in the lower working-class areas of Tehran pinpoint. In other, more affluent areas, praise is harder to find. (Sep 14, '05)

Why Iran can't become the new China
Iran as an emerging Muslim China? Forget it, says Ibrahim Yazdi, a veteran dissident politician in Iran, who sees stark differences between what he calls the repressive Islamic republic and a more enlightened leadership in Beijing. Yet Yazdi could be wrong. (Sep 13, '05)

 Iran takes over Pipelineistan
As a key energy supplier to China as well as India's major supplier, Iran is in an enviable position. Further, its trans-Caspian alliance with Russia is iron-clad, and Tehran is well poised as a key supplier to Western Europe. Iran has the foundation to become a major economic power. (Sep 9, '05)
 
The humanist reformer
The reform movement has all but been beaten at the polls in Iran, with its place taken by a kind of "compassionate conservatism". The voices of reform, however, are as strident as ever, personified by Emadeddin Baghi, even if Iranians are not listening. (Sep 7, '05)

Iran knocks Europe out
Tehran has called the EU's bluff, and international opinion faces a split. (Sep 6, '05)
 
A nuclear (mis)adventure in Isfahan
The focus of Tehran's nuclear standoff with Europe and the US is centered on Isfahan, where Iran has resumed uranium conversion activities, which it claims is its right. With a flurry of diplomatic maneuvers planned, matters are coming to a head, and Pepe Escobar is the first casualty. (Sep 1, '05)

WAITING FOR THE MAHDI, Part 2
A vision or a waking dream?
The Shi'ite tradition in Qom teaches that when the world has become psychologically ready to accept the government of God and when worldly conditions are ready for truth to prevail, God will then allow Imam Mahdi to launch his final revolution. In the meantime, fertile minds are educated in preparation for this worldwide revolution.   (Aug 31, '05)

WAITING FOR THE MAHDI, Part 1
Sistani.Qom: In the wired heart of Shi'ism
The issue of supremacy among top Shi'ite religious leaders has profound implications for Iran and Iraq. Is it the almost recluse Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani in Najaf in Iraq, who forced the American superpower to bow to his wishes? Or is it the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei? The Shi'ite communications center in Qom provides some clues, as Pepe Escobar reports in the first of two articles from the Iranian holy city. (Aug 30, '05)

The nuclear rap
It's summer holidays, so what better way for university students to spend a hot afternoon than protesting outside the French, German and British embassies in Tehran. Pepe Escobar joins in. (Aug 25, '05)

Iran: Tough talk and temptresses
The contrasts could not be sharper: an army of Angelina Jolie clones cruising north Tehran's streets and malls, to the thousands gathered at Tehran University, including the president, to hear the country's Supreme Leader at Friday prayers laying into the US. Pepe Escobar hits the road in Iran. (Aug 24, '05)

The Algerian connection
It is one thing to mouth opposition to the US-led occupation of Iraq, it is another to allow the US military to use your country as a playground in the "war on terror". Two Algerian diplomats have paid with their lives at the hands of an al-Qaeda-linked group for their government adopting such a position.  (Jul 28, '05)

Fighting the uncivil fight
European Union officials, not to mention Europe-wide public opinion, are starting to confront a very serious question: how to fight jihad inside the EU without infringing on civil liberties. This is exactly what Salafi-jihadis want. (Jul 21, '05)

Self-service jihad
More and more so-called "white Moors" - white Muslims carrying European Union passports - are taking jihad training in Chechnya, while "individual jihadis", without contact with al-Qaeda, are learning the trade of terror on their own before joining or starting sleeper cells in Europe. (Jul 19, '05)

War comes to the heart of Europe
A new, deadly generation of internationalist jihadis is making Europe its battleground. It's not only a war against the Western occupiers of Muslim lands; it's a war for the future of global Islam as the al-Qaeda "nebula" strives to impose Wahhabi values on the faith. (Jul 14, '05)