Asia Times: Armenian crisis cools with compromise cabinet



	November 25, 1999	atimes.com

Central Asia/Russia

Armenian crisis cools with compromise cabinet
By Liz Fuller

The agreement reached 10 days ago by Armenian President Robert Kocharian and Prime Minister Aram Sargsian over the composition of the new cabinet defused tensions and ended speculation that the former would either resign or fire the latter. Since then, Kocharian has sought to strengthen his position by naming one of his closest allies, former National Security Minister Serzh Sarkisian, to head the presidential administration.

The week long crisis centered on the choice of candidates to head the National Security and Interior Ministries and the political future of Minister for Industrial Infrastructures Vahan Shirkhanian. Shirkhanian has admitted that he was behind a 28 October statement that senior defense ministry officials addressed to Kocharian calling for the firing of the two power ministers and the prosecutor-general for their failure to prevent the previous day's bloodbath in the Armenian parliament.

In a one-hour interview broadcast on 16 November, Kocharian disclosed that just hours after the 27 October killings, a dozen close associates of the murdered premier, including the latter's security adviser Andranik Kocharian (no relation to the president), had presented him with a list of the names of people whom they wished to see appointed to key posts in the new government. In that list, Vahan Shirkhanian, a former deputy defense minister, was nominated for the post of premier.

Kocharian and Sargsian apparently found it relatively easy to agree on the candidates to head the power ministries. The horse-trading over Shirkhanian, however, proved more difficult, but in talks that began on 12 November and continued into the early hours of the following day, Kocharian seemed to have agreed that Shirkhanian should retain his post in the new cabinet. Kocharian also agreed to the dismissal of Prosecutor-General Aghvan Hovsepian.

Major General Haik Harutiunian and Major General Karlos Petrosian, the new interior and national security ministers, are both non-partisan career police officers. Harutiunian, 44, has served in that ministry since 1981, most recently as first deputy minister and commander of the Interior Ministry troops. Petrosian, 49, is a graduate of the law faculty of Yerevan State University worked his way up through the ranks of the Interior Ministry to head its Investigation Department. Both men served under Serzh Sarkisian when the latter headed the combined Interior and National Security Ministry.

Andranik Markarian, the leader of the majority Miasnutiun faction within the parliament, told RFE/RL on 13 November that Miasnutiun, the president, and the premier had agreed on how to resolve the deadlock. He noted that ''we have reached full understanding with the president,'' adding that there are no problems now and there will be none in the future. In his 16 November television address, Kocharian similarly affirmed that ''I had no differences with the Miasnutiun bloc. Nor did I have differences with Aram Sargsian.'' He went on to describe the new premier as ''a very sincere and honest person.''

Given those statements, the question arises of whether the press reports of deadlock and the president's possible resignation were exaggerated or even invented. The first to report that Kocharian had threatened to resign was a prominent member of Miasnutiun. Hmayak Hovannissian told RFE/RL on 10 November that ''the president told us that either he must be able to perform his duties or he will have to quit.'' The next day, ''Aravot'' claimed that Kocharian had threatened to resign if the parliament majority sided with the prime minister over the government's composition. But on 12 November, ''Haykakan Zhamanak'' reported that while the talks between Kocharian, Sarkisian, and parliamentary speaker Armen Khachatrian had failed to yield agreement, ''this time Kocharian didn't speak about his possible resignation. On the contrary, he said it is his duty to stay on because he has a real chance to settle the Karabakh conflict.''

Kocharian's press spokesman, Vahe Gabrielian, told Interfax on 12 November, however, that ''the president has neither prepared a letter of resignation nor taken up the matter with the parliament.'' OSCE Minsk Group co-chairman Jean-Jacques Gaillard, who met with Kocharian in Yerevan on 11 November, told journalists after that meeting that the president did not give the impression of a man about to resign. And in an editorial published on 13 November, ''Aravot'' suggested that to step down would be totally contrary to Kocharian's nature.

In short, there are only two possible explanations that accommodate all the above pieces of information: Either the steel nerves and sense of timing that Kocharian displayed in January 1998 prior to his predecessor's resignation failed him momentarily. Or in order to raise the stakes during his bargaining with parliamentary deputies, the president suggested a course of action that he had no intention of carrying out.

Despite the 12-13 November agreement, some observers predict continuing tensions within the country's leadership. Those observers base that prediction on the perceived weakness of the president. They note that only a few political parties expressed unequivocal support for him in his standoff with Sargsian and the parliament, whereas most merely called on both protagonists to seek a compromise in the interest of restoring political stability.

But other commentators suggest that even if many parties are ambivalent toward Kocharian, no political faction appears to have an interest in forcing the president to stand down at this juncture. Nor do there appear to be fundamental disagreements over policy between the parliamentary majority, government, and president that could precipitate a new standoff.

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