Asia Times: Summit marks ascendance of China



	December 14, 1999	atimes.com

Central Asia/Russia

Summit marks ascendance of China
STRATFOR.COM
Global Intelligence Update
December 10, 1999

Summary

Russian President Boris Yeltsin and Chinese President Jiang Zemin met on December 9 for a hasty and informal summit. While the Russian government and media focused on the two countries' strategic partnership and on China's backing for Russian actions in Chechnya, the Chinese state media highlighted the border agreements inked at the meeting. The differing media coverage reflects the fundamental difference in emphasis both nations place on the meeting. Russia appears desperate for China's support, to demonstrate to the United States that it is still a great power. China, while maintaining some distance from Russia's tactical concerns, is also demonstrating clearly to the United States that a Sino-Russian bloc remains an option.

Analysis

Russian President Boris Yeltsin met in Beijing with Chinese President Jiang Zemin, Prime Minister Zhu Rongji, and chairman of the Standing Committee of the Chinese National People's Congress Li Peng on December 9. On the one hand, Russia has placed great importance on the informal summit between Jiang and Yeltsin, emphasizing the fact that China backs Russian military actions in Chechnya. It is also presenting the summit as an advancement in the Sino-Russo strategic partnership. On the other hand, China - while following diplomatic protocol - has treated the visit with less strategic impact, focusing instead on the three border agreements between the nations' foreign ministers.

The meeting between Yeltsin and Jiang had been postponed several times. Russia's decision to send Yeltsin to Beijing when he was obviously not healthy, and against the public advice of his doctors, reinforces the urgency Moscow assigned the meeting. Yeltsin's visit was intended not only to guarantee Chinese political support in light of Russian military operations in Chechnya, but also to reinforce to the West that Russia remains a force to be reckoned with - a force that would only grow by entering a strategic alliance with China.

The threat of such an alliance provides both Russia and China with a useful bargaining chip in dealing with the United States. Such an alliance would be difficult to actualize, due to the competing strategic interests of the two countries. Nevertheless, Russian statements regarding the meeting play up this threat.

Russia - under increasing international pressure over the issue of Chechnya - used the summit in an attempt to rebuild an international image of strength. It was relying on the summit to build support against growing international condemnation. Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov said that China fully supported Russia's actions in Chechnya, and that the border agreements with China represented ''a new step in our strategic partnership''. In addition, Yeltsin responded to US criticism of the Chechen campaign by saying that US President Bill Clinton had forgotten that Russia ''has a full arsenal of nuclear weapons''.

China, on the other hand, participated in the summit for its own strategic reasons. The meeting brought about three border agreements, which have been the focus of Chinese statements and media coverage. The agreements formalize two stretches of common border, and lay out the joint economic use of some contested river islands. The border resolution with Russia, long in the works, comes amid a larger move by China to secure its land borders.

In addition, China took the opportunity to send a message to the United States. Holding the summit with Russia, but paying little formal attention to the idea of a Sino-Russo military partnership, allows China to maintain a friendly relationship without directly confronting the United States. But, in maintaining visibly close ties with Russia, China is also sending a signal that it has the power to set the agenda. The move also provides a reminder that China and Russia could form an alliance to counter US hegemonic power.

As China continues to position itself as a world power, the balance it walks between the United States and Russia will remain a key tool in its foreign policy. The summit in Beijing, and the two governments' divergent portrayals of the event, has demonstrated the weakness of Russia's international position. At the same time, China has shown itself to be the senior partner in any relationship with Russia, and, while maintaining an open relationship with the United States, remains capable of pulling the Russia card any time it sees fit.

(c) 1999, Stratfor, Inc. http://www.stratfor.com/

_________________________________
For republication policy contact:
STRATFOR, Inc.
504 Lavaca, Suite 1100
Austin, TX 78701
Phone: 512-583-5000
Fax: 512-583-5025
Internet: http://www.stratfor.com/
Email: info@stratfor.com