Asia Times: Armenian politics in uniform



	December 15, 1999	atimes.com

Central Asia/Russia

Armenian politics in uniform
By Richard Giragosian

Recent developments in Armenia following the attack on the parliament have highlighted an increasingly assertive military and a widening split between the president and elements of the Unity bloc, the dominant group in parliament.

The killings of the two leaders of the Unity bloc, parliamentary chairman Karen Demirchian and Prime Minister Vazgen Sargsian, have led to a serious re-configuration of the balance of political power in the country. This shift first became apparent in the negotiations between President Robert Kocharian and his newly appointed prime minister, the brother of the late premier, Aram Sargsian, on the line-up of a new cabinet. The military reportedly submitted a list of preferred appointments to the president during the negotiations and was the driving force behind the appointment of the new prime minister. Moreover, the deepening internal tension has been exacerbated by Kocharian's recent moves promising a possible settlement of the long-standing Nagorno- Karabakh conflict.

This political confrontation was most evident at the early December party congress of the Yerkrapah Union of veterans of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Having formed the Republican Party, a key partner of the People's Party in the Unity Bloc, the Yerkrapah organization is led by several senior military figures aspiring to exert political leverage. Although the Yerkrapah group backed the new premier, it remains to be seen to what degree Sargsian will serve as a Yerkrapah figurehead or if he will attempt to distance himself from the group.

Within Yerkrapah, a new core leadership has emerged that is strongly critical of the president, even threatening to force new presidential elections. The party congress elected Major General Manvel Grigorian as its chairman, signaling a step toward ''politics in uniform''. This assertive and military-affiliated Yerkrapah leadership promises a looming confrontation with the Kocharian camp and has already fostered a growing split with its own Republican Party supporters.

Furthermore, the appointment of Vahan Shirkhanian as minister of industrial infrastructure constitutes a concession by the president that demonstrates his tenuous position in resisting the Yerkrapah leadership directly. Shirkhanian is former deputy defense minister and the military's initial choice for new premier. And it was he who led the military's very vocal demands calling for the dismissal of the power ministers in the wake of the attack on the parliament.

The military boldly asserted itself immediately following that attack, responding to the crisis with a demonstrable show of force. Although the Armenian military had been engaged in political affairs with President Levon Ter-Petrossian government's deployment of the army in response to an opposition demonstration in Yerevan, this new trend of politics in uniform poses the threat of a ''creeping coup''. Following the success in forcing the resignations of the interior and national security ministers and the prosecutor-general, the military has now entered the political arena through the Yerkrapah organization.

The ominous trend of a politically assertive military has roots in Armenia's body politic. The use of the military as a springboard to political power was evident in both Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia with the rise of the powerful former Karabakh Defense Minister Samvel Babayan and late Armenian Prime Minister Vazgen Sargsian.

Now, politics in uniform has emerged as an alternative avenue to power, offering a new source of political legitimacy for ambitious elements of the military as the traditional path to political power has become discredited by rampant corruption and feuding political elites. Armenia's political landscape is somewhat similar to Russia's in that rival factions within the government are struggling for control over the key economic sectors. These feuding political elites are committed to democracy in varying degrees, casting the competition not as a battle for maintaining democratic and economic reforms but as a struggle over who controls reform.

As the military-influenced leadership of the Yerkrapah organization escalate a confrontation with the Kocharian government, it will be interesting to see what role the defense minister will play. Widely respected as a professional military officer with a disdain for partisan politics, the defense minister may well hold the key for ensuring the stability of the Kocharian government. The most likely scenario is a confrontation between the Yerkrapah-dominated parliament and the presidency, with the defense minister preventing the military establishment from directly engaging the government in open political combat. But the military is an essential element in the long-term necessity of securing the peace after a negotiated peace agreement over Nagorno-Karabakh.

A more fundamental element common to all the players is the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh. It was, in fact, the Karabakh conflict that brought Robert Kocharian to power in Armenia, first as prime minister and then as president. Karabakh also heralded the rise of Vazgen Sarkisian and provided the pivotal political legitimacy for the Yerkrapah movement. It also hastened the demise of former President Ter-Petrossian, forced into resignation by the Kocharian camp.

Most significantly, the future course of both Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh rests on the looming Karabakh settlement. It remains to be seen whether the increasing pressure on President Kocharian will mean a lost opportunity for peace or just another obstacle on the path toward consolidating democracy in Armenia.

(Copyright (c) 1999 RFE/RL, Inc. All rights reserved)