Asia Times: Turkmenistan's presidency-for-life slated as destabilizing



	January 6, 2000	atimes.com

Central Asia/Russia

Turkmenistan's presidency-for-life slated as destabilizing
By Sergei Blagov

MOSCOW - Turkmenistan's president has just been made leader of this ex-Soviet Central Asian state for life, but critics say this only adds to the uncertainty in a struggling country of 4 million people.

On Tuesday, the country moved closer to a North Korea-like system of lifetime leadership and personality cults after Parliament approved a constitutional law awarding President Saparmurad Niyazov with a limitless term.

Niyazov, the 59-year-old leader who is known as Turkmenbashi (Father of All Turkmen), was first elected president after independence in 1990. His term was extended in two referendums in 1992 and 1994, where nearly 100 percent of voters agreed to let him be president until 2003. After Tuesday's vote, Niyazov said he would try to prove ''worthy'' of the Parliament's trust.

Despite the existence of supposedly democratic institutions, in fact the Turkmen president controls the judicial system, and the 50-member, single-chamber Parliament (Mejlis) had no independent authority. Niyazov, who builds huge statues of himself, is the focus of what critics call an increasingly bizarre personality cult. Niyazov, who is also prime minister, lives in a palace with a helicopter landing pad in the capital Ashgabat. His portraits are displayed on most buildings and streets there.

Niyazov's critics argue that there can not be any social stability in a country with annual budget amounting to some $400-600 million - but where the president's personal wealth is estimated at some $3 billion. ''The one-man-rule system is potentially destabilizing for Turkmenistan as the problem of succession is yet to be resolved,'' said Vitaly Ponomarev, head of the Moscow-based Central Asia Human Rights Information Center.

Human right activists have repeatedly lashed out at the authoritarian leadership of Turkmenistan, but the Turkmen opposition faces immense challenges to improve the situation in their Central Asian homeland. ''The Turkmen opposition advocates peaceful, non-violent methods in our campaign for democracy in Turkmenistan, although at the moment people do not have the ability to change their government peacefully,'' former Turkmen foreign minister and opposition leader Avdy Kuliev has told IPS.

The Turkmen authorities accused Kuliev of plotting an armed rebellion and of embezzling funds from state coffers, but Kuliev says the charges are fabrications by his political opponents.

Turkmen Democratic Party, the renamed Communist Party which Nizayov leads, retained a monopoly on power after the Soviet Union's break-up in 1991. The government registers no other parties and does not tolerate opposition political activities.

Beyond these political avenues, however, Niyazov's authoritarian rule and the economic system of Turkmenistan are based upon sizable natural resources. Turkmenistan has been struggling to cope after the Soviet transition, and its recent deal to sell gas to Russia is good news for the Turkmen regime. Although the government has promised to make the transition to a market economy, its agriculture-dependent economy remains dependent on state control. Gas, oil and cotton account for almost all of the country's export revenues, mostly from Russia.

Russian pipelines are the main outlet for Turkmenistan, which is believed to hold the fourth largest natural gas reserves in the world and heavily depends on revenues from gas exports.

But Turkmenistan's oil and natural gas production has been declining in recent years, dampening its economy. While the country describes itself as ''Kuwait on the Caspian'', its main oil refinery in the coastal city of Turkmenbashi is a rusting, World War II-era plant in desperate need of modernization. Its pipeline plans are still on the drawing board.

Naturally, last month's gas deal between Russia and Turkmenistan, which ended a lengthy dispute over terms and transit rates, has come as a major economic breakthrough for Turkmenistan.

Russia was to begin receiving deliveries of natural gas from Turkmenistan under an agreement concluded in Ashgabat, its capital, on December 17, Niyazov said at the opening of Parliament on December 27.

The agreement, signed by Niyazov and Gazprom chief executive Rem Vyakhirev, is for 20 billion cubic meters of gas in 2000 at a price of some $780 million. The gas will be sold at the Turkmenistan-Uzbekistan border for $36 per 1,000 cubic meters. Russia will pay 40 percent in cash and the rest in goods and services. ''Both Russia and Turkmenistan are in pretty dire economic circumstances and the deal is mutually beneficial,'' Gazprom's chief executive officer Vyakhirev said in an interview.

Gas exports were halted in March 1997, when Niyazov suspended the Turkmen-Russian gas venture Turkmenrosgaz. Russia retaliated by blocking the pipeline and as a result Turkmenistan's gas output more than halved compared to 1996 - and the country suffered huge losses.

''Some think that Turkmenistan should crawl to Russia because of its difficulties, but we shall cover our losses with sales of cotton, grain, oil and by speeding up other projects,'' Niyazov reportedly said at the time. However, two years later, Turkmenistan had to crawl back to Moscow, because the Central Asian state has few alternatives to exporting gas.

Not surprisingly, Turkmenistan, keen to reduce its heavy reliance on pipelines belonging to Russia, is considering the construction of new gas export pipelines to or through a number of countries, including neighbouring Iran and Afghanistan.

Niyazov also said that Turkmenistan planned to ask the United Nations to provide security guarantees for a planned $2 billion pipeline to Pakistan via Afghan territory. More than half of the planned 1,500-km pipeline will be laid across Afghanistan, but the plan for this has yet to materialize.

Turkmenistan also plans to deliver 10 billion cubic meters of gas to Iran in 2000, up from 2 billion cubic meters in 1999. But even with this huge gas agreement, Turkmenistan's self-sufficiency and independence in terms of gas exports remains a matter of concern in Ashgabat.

As for Niyazov's critics, increasing exports of Turkmenistan's energy resources may well just be trying to avoid North Korean style economic disasters - and to sustain Niyazov's authoritarian regime.

(Inter Press Service)