Asia Times: ANALYSIS: Is Chechnya Russia's Vietnam?



	January 15, 2000	atimes.com

Central Asia/Russia

ANALYSIS: Is Chechnya Russia's Vietnam?
By Sergei Blagov

MOSCOW - Rebel counter-attacks in Chechnya have been likened to Vietnam War-era guerrilla tactics, notably the famous Tet offensive.

However, Vietnam's experience suggests that in the longer run steady flows of incoming supplies via the Ho Chi Minh Trail - and not fierce surprise assaults - proved crucial, and the Chechen resistance may be doomed due to the lack of a viable supply line.

After taking control of much of lowland Chechnya, since January 9 the Russian army has encountered bitter Chechen counter-attacks. The militants launched surprise assaults on the towns of Argun, Gudermes, and Shali. Though the Russian generals claimed to have regained full control over the three towns in a couple of days, the attacks came as a bolt from the blue.

Many analysts - both Russian as well as foreign - argue that the Chechen counter-attacks were a major setback for the Russian army, demonstrating that this campaign is not working. The Chechen actions were also likened to the Tet offensive, which demonstrated that the Americans were not in control of the situation in Vietnam.

Obviously, there are many similarities between recent Chechen counter-attacks and the Tet offensive, which was launched in January 1968 - at the time of the Vietnamese Tet (Lunar New Year) holidays - and included coordinated attacks on South Vietnam's major cities. On the eve of the attack the Chechen fighters - like Vietcong (VC) regulars - were drifting into the cities in twos and threes, disguised as refugees. The Chechens - like the VC - rounded up prepared lists of collaborators for quick executions.

Russian generals - like US commander Westmoreland - later claimed to have anticipated the attacks but the evidence suggests that they were not prepared for the intensity of the attack that came.

On the other hand, in a grim reminder of the My Lai massacre, the Russian forces have been accused of abuses. Last December, the New York-based Human Rights Watch, called on the UN Security Council to appoint an independent commission to investigate violations of the laws of war by Russian forces in Chechnya.

According to the testimony of Alkhan-Yurt locals, the servicemen not only summarily executed villagers - up to 41 people - but also rebelled against their own Russian commanders. The Russian military have begun to investigate the incident in Alkhan-Yurt, following several blanket denials by the authorities that any abuses had ever taken place.

Incidents like Alkhan-Yurt - and a recent move by the Russian army to stop males between 10 and 60 leaving and entering Chechnya in an effort to restrict guerrillas' movements - are likely to turn Russian efforts to win Chechen ''hearts and minds'' into a disaster.

In the wake of counter-attacks, the commander of Russia's air force, General Anatoly Kornukov, said that the Russian air force could start using more powerful weapons against Chechens - reminiscent of B-52 strikes against communist positions just outside Saigon, Vietnam.

In both wars, when the guerrillas were finally driven out of cities, they retreated into the surrounding government villages and fought there. Artillery and strike-aircraft bombed and shelled these supposedly pacified villages before troops moved in to re-occupy them. The guerrillas repeated this tactic again and again in a clear effort to alienate the population.

But the shock of the Tet Offensive finished American willingness to continue. Washington announced a bombing halt of the North and a willingness to meet with the North Vietnamese to seek a peace settlement.

Similarly, on January 12, Chechen leader Aslan Maskhadov renewed calls for a political dialogue with Russia. However, Russia's Defense Minister Igor Sergeyev rejected Maskhadov's pleas and insisted that Russian troops would pursue ''until the end'' the so-called ''counter-terrorist'' action in Chechnya. He also said Chechen militants in Grozny would be destroyed by artillery barrages and air strikes.

To many, the siege of Chechen capital Grozny is reminiscent of the bitter street-by-street fighting that occurred during World War II, as well as the battle for Hue, Vietnam, in 1968. The heavy use of artillery and aircraft back-up has reduced large sections of Grozny - as it did Hue - to piles of rubble. The massive Russian offensive aims at destroying Chechen separatists who invaded the neighboring Republic of Dagestan last August and who are blamed for apartment bombings in Russia that killed 300 people in September.

But a British newspaper, The Independent, recently reported that it had obtained a videotape on which a Russian officer, captured by the Chechens, ''confesses'' that the Federal Security Service - the KGB's successor agency - carried out the bombings.

Sergei Ivanov, secretary of Russia's Security Council claimed that Chechen involvement in the bombings had been proved. He said a training school for ''saboteurs'' had been discovered in the Chechen town of Urus-Martan, and explosives identical to those used in the explosions were found there.

The Chechen counter-attacks on Russian-held towns differ from the Tet offensive, which involved over 100,000 communists, inasmuch as the Chechen separatists clearly lack a supply infrastructure - there is nothing like the Ho Chi Minh Trail, a key factor in the final Vietnamese victory. The trail was a network of some 20,000 kilometers of roads - including a 1,500-kilometer fuel pipeline - and it could transport a full division from north to south in a week.

The Chechens do not have anything approaching that, and sooner or later their guerrilla tactics may be hampered by lack of adequate supplies - unless corrupt Russian officers sell their weapons to the Chechens, as happened during the previous 1994-1996 war .

Critics argue that the Chechen war starts looking like a never-ending conflict without any realistic objective. They say that to defeat all resistance, one must be able to distinguish between civilians and guerrillas, while non-combatants - witnessing their communities shattered - often become combatants.

If the Russian military fail to uproot Chechen resistance, they could be tempted to resorting to more brutal Vietnam-war-era US recipes like using toxic defoliant Agent Orange or the CIA's Phoenix program, blamed for 40,000 deaths.

With political settlement still a dream, it remains to be seen whether the Kremlin will come up with a viable solution, or go on destroying Chechen cities.

(Inter Press Service)