Asia Times: Armenia seeks complementarity in S Caucasus


	April 18, 2000	atimes.com

Central Asia/Russia

Armenia seeks complementarity in S Caucasus
By Harry Tamrazian

Over the past few years, Armenia has abandoned its primarily Russia-centric foreign and security policy in favor of a more balanced and multifaceted approach. One of the fundamental principles of its new foreign policy, as expounded by the country's top diplomats, is that of ''complementarity''. That same principle was introduced in the EU's Maastricht Treaty of 1992 to denote coordination and cooperation between member states and the union's executive body.

In Armenia's foreign policy, complementarity means cooperating and maintaining good relations with all countries that are willing to establish and maintain friendly and mutually beneficial relations with Yerevan. Thus while remaining a close ally of Russia and a trading partner of Iran, Armenia has nonetheless managed to maintain strong relations with the US. Yerevan also wants to establish diplomatic ties and start economic cooperation with its traditional foe, Turkey, which is vying with Russia and Iran for influence in the South Caucasus.

With regard to Armenia's immediate neighbors in the South Caucasus, complementarity has two dimensions: non-interference in those countries' foreign relations and promoting the maximum degree of economic and security cooperation on a regional level.

''We are not playing on the differences and rivalries between major regional powers in Caucasus. Armenia should not be a place where the interests of major powers collide, but rather a country where the interests can be balanced, complemented,'' Armenian diplomats say in their press briefings.

So far, Armenia has been quite successful in keeping a delicate foreign-policy balance. In a bold move last year, when Nato warplanes were bombing Serbia and Russia was threatening to cut ties with the West, Armenian President Robert Kocharian joined fellow South Caucasus Presidents Eduard Shevardnadze and Heidar Aliev in travelling to Washington to celebrate Nato's 50th anniversary with Western leaders.

But that was then. Today, there are new questions to consider. Specifically, will Vladimir Putin's victory in last month's Russian presidential election herald a fundamental change in Russia's behavior toward the South Caucasus? Will Moscow be more assertive towards rival and friends alike? What will happen if, for example, Russia pressures Armenia to join its union with Belarus?

Armenian diplomats believe they can resist any such tough calls from the Kremlin. In an interview with RFE/RL two weeks ago, Armenian Deputy Foreign Minister Armen Martirossian said President-elect Putin will observe the status quo in the South Caucasus because he was hand-picked as a successor by former President Boris Yeltsin himself.

But if Yerevan takes its policy of complementarity too far, it may risk precipitating a cooling of relations with Moscow. Armenian President Robert Kocharian's recent proposal to create a security system in South Caucasus with the participation of Russia, Turkey, and Iran and with the support of the US and the EU - which is a prime example of the complementarity that Armenia wants to introduce in the region - has already engendered negative comment from some Russian leaders.

And Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey each have a different idea of how to make the South Caucasus a more secure place. The leaders of those countries have their own security projects in which Russia does not play a major role. During his visit to Tbilisi in March, for example, Turkish President Suleyman Demirel unveiled his security project for the South Caucasus. Russia was invited to participate in Demirel's Security project as one of several neighboring countries.

The principle of complementarity is a workable diplomatic concept if the two major players in the region, the US and Russia, are not in a confrontational mood and at least formally remain partners within the OSCE and other international organizations engaged in peace-making missions in the South Caucasus.

Armenian diplomats believe that US President Bill Clinton was right when he suggested Putin will seek to cooperate with the West at least in the spheres of nuclear disarmament, nuclear non-proliferation, and other global issues. That approach would make it possible for Armenia to continue its policy of complementarity. But will Russia try to extend that cooperation with the West in the unstable South Caucasus?

Many senior officials and experts in the region are skeptical. In an interview last week with the Azerbaijani newspaper ''Zaman,'' former Azerbaijani state adviser Vafa Guluzade warned that Russia is preparing for a war in South Caucasus. But not everyone agrees with that doomsday scenario. Some analysts even suggest that Russia might change its priorities and expand the list of its friends in the South Caucasus to include Azerbaijan.

(Copyright (c) 2000 RFE/RL, Inc. All rights reserved)