Asia Times: Armenia's growing pains of democracy


	May 13, 2000	atimes.com

Central Asia/Russia

Armenia's growing pains of democracy
By Richard Giragosian

The political tensions brewing in Armenia over the past few months between President Robert Kocharian and his parliamentary opponents culminated in the May 2 dismissal of Prime Minister Aram Sargsian and Defense Minister Vagharshak Harutiunian. The president is now moving to reassert control over a divided parliament as he faces the challenges of negotiating an end to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and overcoming corruption and economic malaise.

Having ended the constant bickering with a politically immature prime minister whose sole claim to political office was his appeal as the brother of slain Premier Vazgen Sargsian, Kocharian is now exploiting growing splits within the parliamentary Unity bloc and co-opting the Yerkrapah Union of Karabakh veterans. Assuming the post of premier in the wake of the October 27 attack on the parliament, Sargsian became embroiled in a series of political assaults on the presidency, ranging from calls for impeachment to the suspension of the government's privatization of the energy distribution network. The six-month tenure of Prime Minister Sargsian was most notable for its failure to address growing wage and pension arrears and its legacy of outstanding socio-economic problems to the next premier, who will be the country's tenth since independence.

The president's parliamentary opponents are grouped under a tenuous cooperative umbrella featuring the Unity bloc, which has the largest group of deputies, and its somewhat hesitant ally, the second-largest group in the parliament, Stability (Kayunutiun). But there is neither unity nor stability in the parliament. Seemingly influenced by the partisanship of US politics, Unity last month raised the possibility of the president's impeachment, going as far as to circulate an anonymous document listing a series of alleged ''offenses'' committed by the president. While securing the newspaper headlines of the day, this confrontational tactic proved devoid of any substantive or even coherent criticism of President Kocharian or his policies. Indeed, this lack of substance is also fostering frustration with the Unity leadership within Stability, which, as a collection of independent and unaffiliated deputies, is looking for strong political direction and clear strategy.

President Kocharian has taken sufficient measures to preempt any serious threat from the ''uniformed politicians'' of the Yerkrapah Union of Karabakh veterans, a potentially pivotal combination of military thinking and politics founded by slain leader Vazgen Sargsian. By appointing Yerkrapah leader General Manvel Grigorian as deputy defense minister and promoting a number of senior Yerkrapah figures, Kocharian has in effect co-opted the union and prevented it from assuming any threatening role. In a similar move in Nagorno-Karabakh, the unrecognized enclave's leader, Arkadii Ghukasian, marginalized the organization there and transformed it from a power base of the former Karabakh army chief Samvel Babayan into a bastion of pro-government support.

But this posturing of political elites has obscured a much more significant development that threatens to mortgage the country's future by ignoring its national interests. Ironically, the Unity bloc, which was elected to lead the country out of its economic crisis, was able to pass a moratorium on the government's privatization effort - a key precondition to the disbursement of a World Bank loan tranche to be used in financing the budget deficit. The increasingly common tendency to sacrifice prudent policy to the requirements of partisan politics is a dangerous development for a small landlocked country situated in an already unstable region.

A second important factor obscured by political infighting is the need for ''good governance,'' specifically political accountability and greater transparency. Its absence is highlighted by the powerful former interior minister, Vano Siradeghian, a fugitive facing charges ranging from political assassinations and intimidation to corruption and abuse of power. After the parliament lifted his immunity for the second time, Siradeghian fled a trial that had consistently come under pressure from various powerful figures united by their fear of his testimony. The Siradeghian case is more than a criminal case with political implications. The prosecution of the former Ter-Petrossian government minister is an important step in securing a judicial system both viable and independent enough to withstand any outside pressure.

Today's main political question is whether the president will feel compelled to dissolve the parliament once he becomes empowered to do so on May 30, one year after it was elected. Kocharian can either seek to maneuver between divided political alliances, most notably between the Unity bloc and Stability, or opt to dissolve the parliament and call new elections. Regardless of his decision, however, an inherent danger lies in the strengthening of the executive at the expense of the legislature. The excesses of the Ter-Petrossian administration that derived from this fundamental imbalance may lead to the transformation of a country experiencing the ''growing pains'' of democracy into one suffering the ''premature death'' of democracy.

(Copyright (c) 2000 RFE/RL, Inc. All rights reserved)