June 13, 2001	atimes.com

Central Asia/Russia US-Russia: Look who's grinning now STRATFOR.COM's Global Intelligence Update Jun 12, 2000 Summary For US President George W Bush, this is probably a pretty bad time for a summit meeting with a Russian president. On the other hand, no one is happier than Vladimir Putin, the first Russian leader since Leonid Brezhnev to hold the whip hand at a summit with the Americans. Analysis The heart of US President George W Bush's European trip will be his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Slovenia on June 16, the first "post-post-Cold War" summit between the United States and Russia. It signals a new era not only because of the shifting political winds sweeping the world but also because it is the first summit in a long time in which the American president is in more trouble than his Russian counterpart. There is little doubt that Putin is more firmly in control of Russia politically than Bush is of the United States. In his first five months in office, Bush appeared to be recovering nicely from the perceived political weakness that stemmed from his dead-heat election victory. But when Vermont Senator James M Jeffords decided to leave the Republican Party and the Republicans lost control of the Senate, this resurrected the realization of just how politically weak Bush actually is. Putin, meanwhile, grows steadily stronger in Russia. For the first time since the fall of Soviet president Mikhail Gorbachev, Russia has a leader that is both in control of the government and increasingly in control of the country. Putin's battles are far from over, but he clearly has the upper hand. Therefore, from a political sense, the Slovenia meeting will be one of unequals. Bush cannot afford even the appearance of failure. In particular, he cannot appear to come out of the meetings looking as if he were out of his league. Putin has no such challenge. There is no question of his mastery of international relations. So Putin has a tremendous advantage. At the summit's conclusion, both sides will try to define what happened. For the moment, Putin has more credibility than Bush in the eyes of the global news media. That means should Putin choose, he could spin the summit as a dismal failure and blame Bush. Such spinning could be done with exquisite subtlety and absolute deadliness. After the Senate debacle, returning home with the aura of failure could be devastating for the Bush presidency. Bush's weakness is not all personal or political. The United States is for the moment in a tricky geopolitical situation. US relations with China are tense. It is extremely important for the United States that Russia not join China in an anti-American alliance. Bush has already antagonized the Russian leader at the same time he is seeking a very important and substantial offering from Putin: at minimum, Russian neutrality between the US and China, and at most, a Russian commitment to side with the United States against China. For his part, Putin does not seem to care that much about the issue of missile defense per se. He is aware, however, that the Bush administration has made the program a key element of its defense policy. Putin is also aware that many Americans share Russia's opposition to missile defense. A Russian nyet in his assessment, might galvanize missile-defense opponents in the United States, further weakening Bush. But there are things that Putin wants from the United States: * Support for a neutral buffer zone embracing states bordering Russia's western flank; * General US recognition of a Russian sphere of influence in eastern Europe, and; * Reduced US meddling in the Ukraine, Caucasus region and central Asia. Putin's highest priority is a neutral zone between Nato and Russia. From Putin's standpoint, extending Nato into the Balkans or into the Baltics is entirely unacceptable, as is American interference in the Caucasus, Ukraine or (if not sanctioned by Russia) in central Asia. Putin, therefore, must make a critical and complex decision regarding his response to Bush. There is very little that Bush can do to hurt him right now. There is little aid flowing that Bush can use as a club. Even a Bush threat to proceed with further Nato expansion is something far from being solely in American hands. Even if the talks break down, Putin will appear to be a domestic Russian hero standing up to the American bully. But Bush can walk out of the Ljubljana summit with a missile defense agreement and with Putin spinning him as the greatest statesman since Metternich. The price for this would be US acquiescence (tacitly if not explicitly in the communique) to an inviolable Russian sphere of influence extending as far as the Balkans. If the Americans balk on this, Putin can pull the rug out from under Bush. While the Russian president cannot break Bush politically, he can certainly make him appear ineffective and wreck his missile defense plan. Far more important, Putin can opt to turn Russian policies eastward toward Beijing, causing the United States no end of grief. For Bush, this is probably a pretty bad time for a summit meeting with the Russian president. Still, no one is happier than Vladimir Putin, the first Russian leader since Leonid Brezhnev to hold the whip hand at a summit with the Americans. Copyright 2001 Strategic Forecasting, LLC. _________________________________ For republication policy contact: STRATFOR, Inc. 504 Lavaca, Suite 1100 Austin, TX 78701 Phone: 512-583-5000 Fax: 512-583-5025 nternet: http://www.stratfor.com/ Email: info@stratfor.com

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