Asia Times: US lines up Afghan military alliance


	September 20, 2001	atimes.com

Central Asia/Russia

US lines up Afghan military alliance
By Syed Saleem Shahzad

KARACHI - As the likelihood of the Taliban handing over Osama bin Laden to the United States becomes increasingly unlikely, and the chances of war greater, attention is turning to just how the battle will be waged in Afghanistan.

Pakistan is not likely to provide free access to US forces to its strategic installations (nuclear) for attacks to be launched into Afghanistan. Consequently, support from the Northern Alliance, the group waging war against the Taliban, for a ground assault on Kabul would greatly help US forces in laying siege to the Taliban and forcing their surrender. The frontline of the civil war is only 60 kilometers from Kabul.

Military analysts are advising US forces not to make a ground attack on Afghanistan on their own as it is a complex battlefield for any foreign invader - as the Soviets found in 10 years of bitter and ultimately fruitless struggle. The cooperation of the 15,000 Northern Alliance forces, therefore, in attacking Kabul will be of great help. Further, the Northern Alliance would be able to aid the US in attacks on other Taliban strongholds in Afghanistan, and on possible hideouts of bin Laden. According to sources, US military experts are in close touch with the Northern Alliance.

The alliance ruled Afghanistan as a coalition government between 1992 and 1996, before being supplanted by the Taliban, with Pakistan's support. Today, it has physical control of less than 10 percent of the country, but it has a vast knowledge of it. One setback could be the death last week of its charismatic military leader Ahmad Shah Masoud, generally regarded as the glue that kept the alliance together.

Although US authorities have obviously not released the nature of the military operations they plan against Afghanistan, Pakistan is likely to provide facilities that will be enough for a limited war only, sources say. The US, without even discussing their plans with the Pakistan army, have asked for bases in Peshawer (Badaber), Dera Ismail Khan and Quetta.

According to sources, the Pakistani military command is reluctant to provide free access to all airbases, specially those close to its nuclear installations. It is learned that there was a heated debate at a recent corps commanders' conference on the issue of whether or not to allow the US army to use Pakistani land, and about granting free access to its major airbases close to the Afghan border.

However, according to strategic experts, without allowing the US broad access, an effective attack on Afghanistan would not be possible. The US Special Forces and elements of the 82nd and 101st airborne divisions would require emergency facilities in Peshawer and Quetta for their troops to take off for various destinations in Afghanistan, even though the strikes would have originated from US aircraft carriers off the Pakistani coast of Mekran in the Arabian Sea and Bahrain, a regional base for the airborne divisions.

According to analysts, the possible targets of the US in Afghanistan include the Taliban headquarters in Kandahar in the south of the country, government and Arab residential blocks in Kabul, some points in Jalalabad, and 18 airstrips and bridges in all major cities.

The strategy is likely to include a devastating land and aerial attack from the southeast of Pakistan (the Balochistan border area) and the northeastern city of Peshawer. Aerial carpet bombing will try to destroy communications and strategic channels to break the Taliban's military grip on the Salang Pass, which links Kabul to northern cities, including Mazaar Sharif, which is surrounded by Northern Alliance troops.

Sources say that in the evolving US military thinking, the Northern Alliance gaining control of Kabul is a central element. From here US forces will have an effective foothold to advance on other positions.

Nevertheless, Pakistan has its reservations about the involvement of the Northern Alliance, which in recent years has helped further the designs of India and Russia in the region. The army's leaders fear that once the Taliban government is rooted out of Kabul, Pakistan will once again have an enemy state on its borders.

In another development in Pakistan, the country's main center of religious clergy, Binori Town in Karachi, which is a leading supporter of Afghanistan, has issued a religious ruling saying, "If the US attacks the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan [Taliban government] without any evidence of its involvement [in terror attacks on the US], the entire Muslim world would be bound to defend Afghanistan and Pakistan. It is a Judeao-Christian conspiracy, and every Muslim will be bound to participate in a holy war against this threat."

Although rallies and demonstrations are banned, thousands of students associated with different Islamic schools blocked the main artery of the port city of Karachi on Tuesday and held a public meeting. The turnout was so large that law enforcement agencies ignored it to avoid clashes that could have set off a wave of violence in the country.

The attention of all religious and Pakistani militant organizations is now focused on their call for a strike on Friday to protest against the government's decision to support US attacks. A newly-established forum, the Afghan Defense Council, has run an effective campaign to make the strike achieve its goal of pressurizing the military regime into changing its stance.

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