Powers behind the throne


	November 30, 2001	atimes.com

Central Asia/Russia

Powers behind the throne
By Syed Saleem Shahzad

KARACHI - With no breakthrough yet in Bonn talks on a future government for Afghanistan - and none realistically expected - the likelihood is that instead of power going to the people of Afghanistan, the country will once again become a playing field for world and regional powers.

Delegations representing the Northern Alliance, exiles backing the ex-king and two smaller exile groups are discussing names of representatives who might play a role in a post-Taliban interim administration, but they need more time to reach agreement, a United Nations spokesman said on Thursday. The talks, now in their third day, are aimed at leading Afghanistan toward a new multi-ethnic government.

While the Afghans are meeting, the United States, Russia and neighbors such as Pakistan and Iran are exerting heavy influence from the corridors. Regional stability and billions in development aid are at stake.

Diplomats say that all sides broadly agree that former King Mohammad Zaher Shah, exiled in Rome since being overthrown in 1973, should have a symbolic leading role in overseeing an initial interim administration. But the Northern Alliance, which controls most of the country now, says that such a role should first be approved by a loya jirga (traditional assembly) of Afghan ethnic leaders.

Diplomats hope that an interim council will be the first step towards setting up a broad-based government for Afghanistan. The council, expected to have between 120 and 200 members from different ethnic groups, could possibly pave the way for elections in about two years time.

There has been no indication of any sign of agreement on a multinational security force being sent to the country, especially as the Northern Alliance has repeatedly said that there is no need for one.

Analysts on Afghan affairs say, however, that whatever is agreed to in Bonn is of minor significance as such issues have been discussed and agreed to on a number of occasions in the past, but they have all failed to bring peace or stability to the country.

Talking to Asia Times Online, the former director-general of Pakistan's Inter- Services Intelligence (ISI), retired Lieutenant-General Hamid Gul, pinpointed several issues that will serve as a benchmark for the UN-sponsored conference in Bonn. These include the deployment of international forces and the replacement of President Burhanuddin Rabbani of the Islamic State of Afghanistan (Northern Alliance) by someone supported by all participants and who would be in charge of the defense ministry "because everybody will have to surrender to the ministry of defense".

Other than the Northern Alliance representatives, delegates are likely to insist on the deployment of international peacekeeping forces before an interim setup can begin working. Otherwise, under the present situation, "might is right" will be the only rule applicable in Afghanistan.

There is little chance of Rabbani enjoying the support of the US or of the participants at the conference. Thus, because of his liberal thinking and as he is the only binding force to bring together the shattered Pashtun tribes after the Taliban, Zahir Shah would be the most acceptable candidate to head the future interim set-up in Afghanistan.

If this happens, and if there is no international peacekeeping force, the Northern Alliance would be the only alternative to militarily control the situation on ground. Consequently the defense portfolio would go to them and they would continue to rule through might in Kabul.

Thus the Northern Alliance remains opposed to peacekeepers. Further, peacekeepers would insist on a deweaponization program to diminish the threat of the many warlords. At present, after the Taliban, the Pashtun Zahir Shah is the only person with strong enough pockets of support which he could revive through old and popular methods, such as privy purses and offering political favors.

Already, pro-Zahir Shah demonstrations in the northern cities of Kunduz and Herat have created a tense environment. The demonstrators are mostly Pashtuns who were settled in the region by Zahir Shah in the 1950s and 1960s. These Pashtuns include Pakistani Pashtuns who were given cheap land and houses by Zahir Shah to build up a Pashtun constituency in northern Afghanistan.

Sources say that from the outset after September 11, the Northern Alliance was not the focus of US plans. Instead, it wanted to create an insurgency in the Pashtun belts against the Taliban. Western intelligence agencies and the ISI worked out a plan under which as many tribal leaders as possible would be cultivated. The ace in the pack was legendary muhajideen commander Abdul Haq. He was sent into Afghanistan with a stack of money to woo the tribes. But as soon as he entered he was caught and on the same day hanged by the Taliban.

The US authorities immediately blamed Pakistani agents for leaking the information to the Taliban, so, concluding that the ISI could not be relied upon as far as anti-Taliban operations were concerned, the US turned its support to the Northern Alliance. And in coordination with them, and heavy bombing, the alliance was able to march into Kabul.

However, the regional supporters of the Northern Alliance, such as Russia, Iran and India, do not exactly match US designs, and Rabbani even opposes the deployment of US and allied forces in Afghanistan.

Further, Russian forces have begun arriving in Kabul. On Monday, about 100 uniformed and armed Russians set up base on vacant land in the heart of Kabul, raising further questions about Moscow's intentions. The Russians said that they were building a field hospital, or perhaps an embassy.

"The deployment of Russian and US troops is the beginning of the Balkanization of Afghanistan under which the southern region will be influenced by the US and the northern region will be controlled by Russia," Hamid Gul comments.

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