Kremlin exercises its muscle in Central Asia


	February 2, 2002	atimes.com

Central Asia/Russia

Kremlin exercises its muscle in Central Asia
By Sergei Blagov

MOSCOW - While pledging its support for international peacekeeping efforts in Afghanistan, the Kremlin is making every effort to maintain its military muscle in Central Asia.

Describing the former Soviet republic of Tajikistan - where Russia still has border guards and the 201st Army Division, roughly 20,000 troops - as a "traditional ally and strategic partner", Russian President Vladimir Putin this week called for a "truly just system" of international relations. Russia believes that the "one-center model" is not viable, he said, presumably referring to the so-called "multipolar world" concept, Moscow's favorite mantra, which implies that the United States should not dominate world affairs.

Ongoing developments in Afghanistan demonstrate that "coordinated efforts - organizational, military and media - by the international community" could be quite efficient, Putin stated in the Kremlin on Thursday.

Moscow presumably views impoverished Tajikistan as a key zone of its interests in the volatile Central Asian region. Consequently, Russian officials tend to speak cautiously about any international involvement in Tajikistan.

For instance, on Wednesday Konstantin Totsky, director of Russia's Federal Border Guard Service, gave somewhat reluctant support to a recent agreement on US aid to Tajik border guards. The deal "is not a threat to Russia", Totsky remarked in the Belarussian capital Minsk, where he attended a Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) meeting of border-guard commanders. "Nobody wants to replace Russian troops in Tajikistan and we will remain there," he claimed.

Also on Wednesday, Putin signed into law bilateral deals with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan "on the status of Russian troops" in these former Soviet states. These agreements were ratified by the State Duma, the lower house of the Russian parliament, on December 26 and by the Federation Council, the upper house, on January 16.

On the other hand, despite its inability to make a considerable financial contribution to rebuilding Afghanistan, the Kremlin still entertains a proactive policy on that country. Notably, on Sunday Russia's Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov is due to visit New Delhi and Kabul to discuss Afghan resettlement.

The Kremlin also expects missions from Afghanistan, presumably aiming at capitalizing on its ties with former members of the Northern Alliance. For instance, on Wednesday Afghanistan's Refugee Affairs Minister Inyatullah Nazari was quoted by RIA as saying that he was going to visit Moscow to discuss the repatriation of an estimated 300,000 Afghan refugees currently in Russia.

Moreover, there have been some friendly signs from Afghan officials. Afghanistan's military leadership will "prioritize military cooperation with Russia", Afghan air force commander Muhammad Daurkhan was quoted by RIA as saying on Monday. Most Afghan officers had been trained in the former USSR, Daurkhan reportedly stated.

However, there have been reports of clashes between Russian and Afghan troops. Notably, on Tuesday Russian border-guard troops in Tajikistan issued a statement claiming that in January there had been at least three shootouts between Russian and Afghan troops across the border, in which the Russians saw one soldier wounded in action. The Russian troops also detained 45 infiltrators and seized 100 kilograms of heroin during January, the statement said.

Not surprisingly, Russia is keen to participate in multilateral regional bodies, notably the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). On Monday and Tuesday, a meeting of the SCO defense ministries' officials was held in Beijing.

General Anatoly Mazurkevich, director of the Russian Defense Ministry's International Cooperation Department, who headed the Russian delegation, told RIA that the gathering discussed "military and political developments in Central Asia ... Despite recent positive developments in Afghanistan, the situation in the region remains complicated and explosive," he stated. Mazurkevich also reiterated that next June the SCO defense ministers are due to meet in St Petersburg, Russia's second-largest city.

The SCO is also becoming a venue for bilateral exchanges. On Monday, Boris Bugrov, deputy speaker of the Uzbek parliament, visited Beijing and pledged readiness "to help the SCO in maintaining security in Central Asia". According to RIA, Bugrov also told his host, Li Peng, that Uzbekistan supports Beijing's crackdown on the "Eastern Turkestan" separatist movement. Li reportedly said that China and Uzbekistan have "common interests" in the combat against terrorism and extremism.

On the other hand, Uzbekistan is keen to strengthen its ties with the United States. This week Elizabeth Jones, US assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs, and Uzbek Foreign Minister Abdulaziz Komilov signed a declaration outlining cooperation. The United States pledged to spend US$160 million this year on projects in Uzbekistan.

However, Jones repeated criticism of a referendum last weekend that extended the presidential term from five to seven years, allegedly by 91.6 percent of 13.2 million registered voters. The referendum has been viewed as a maneuver by President Islam Karimov to capitalize on the anti-terror campaign to consolidate his already limitless power. Yet despite the US criticism, Karimov reportedly pledged to establish a long-term "new relationship" with the US.

Karimov had his first term, which would have ended in 1995, extended to 2000 in a referendum. His re-election in 2000 was ignored by Western monitors, who claimed it was unfair.

Characteristically, the Kremlin remains indifferent to such legal experiments. On Wednesday, Putin sent official greetings to Karimov on the occasion of his 64th birthday and hailed "actively developing" bilateral dialogue and "strategic partnership", without any mention of the referendum.

Moscow keeps in contact with its traditional allies in Central Asia, notably Kazakhstan. On Wednesday, Putin held telephone talks with Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev to discuss "upcoming bilateral contacts".

"There are no unsolved problems or frictions between Kazakhstan and Russia," Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev stated in Astana on Thursday, according to Interfax news agency.

The day before, Kazakh Defense Minister Mukhtar Altynbayev told journalists in Astana that the country was considering selling its surplus stocks of Soviet-era weapons. While Kazakhstan realistically needs only about 300 jet fighters, it has 900 aircraft, he was quoted by RIA as saying. Kazakhstan also has 3,500 "unneeded" tanks and armored vehicles and "too many" small arms, Altynbayev stated, adding that the weapons had been stored in Kazakhstan since the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1989.

It remains a matter of debate whether Kazakhstan's intention to sell its weapons stocks was pre-negotiated with Moscow. However, a massive sale - presumably at bargain prices - of Soviet-era military hardware is unlikely to improve security in the volatile Central Asia region.

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