No red carpets in Afghanistan just yet


	March 26, 2002	atimes.com

Central Asia/Russia

No red carpets in Afghanistan just yet
By Syed Saleem Shahzad

KARACHI - With Britain announcing that 1,700 Royal Marine commandos have being deployed in Afghanistan to help the US tackle remaining al-Qaeda and Taliban forces in south and eastern Afghanistan, fresh military troubles seem imminent for the strife-torn nation.

Taliban and al-Qaeda forces are regrouping in the country, as confirmed by US Vice President Dick Cheney on Sunday, while on the political front differences between supporters of the Northern Alliance and those of former monarch Zahir Shah are growing ahead of the king's impending return to the country from exile in Italy, where he has lived since abdicating the throne in 1973.

Commenting on the return of the king, delayed for a second time on the weekend for security reasons, probably until next month, Saeed Ahmed, a representative in Karachi of the Jamiat-i-Islami, Afghanistan (JIA) (headed by former president Burhanuddin Rabbani) said, "This is an old conflict that is not going to be resolved in one day. For the sake of the Afghan nation and to prevent bloodshed we have compromised on certain issues."

He admitted that Jamiat leaders Ahmed Shah Masoud (assassinated last year), Rabbani and former premier Gulbuddin Hekmatyar of the Hezb-i-Islami, Afghanistan, had in the past vowed to hang Zahir Shah for alleged abuses against their supporters while he was on the throne. However, Saeed maintained that the "world has changed after September 11 and we are ready to endorse his [the ex-king's] role as an Afghan elder to convene a loya jirga [grand assembly of elders] to set the future course of Afghanistan."

The views of Saeed Ahmed of the JIA, the premier faction of the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan, are similar to those expressed publicly by his bosses who hold political sway in Kabul.

However, sources in the capital suggest that the Northern Alliance leaders might not be as accommodating toward the king as they would have people believe.

On the weekend, hundreds of tribal leaders from the deserts and mountains of southern Afghanistan converged on Kandahar for an emergency jirga to warn against any attempts to separate their returning king from his loyal supporters.

They said that the 87-year-old monarch should visit his former royal city if the reception he received in Kabul was cool. The elders maintained that the country's people should have total and free access to meet "the father of the nation".

The 300 tribal leaders from seven provinces in the south and southwest, the royalist heartland of the country, were convened on urgent notice for the jirga.

Their joint declaration is to be sent to United Nations and United States officials, who have been accused by some people in Afghanistan of planning to restrict the former monarch's activities in Afghanistan.

Supporters of the king say they have heard that Zahir Shah will not be able to take part in any political activities. Royalists interpret this to mean that he will not be able to receive visitors. In addition, the number of family members accompanying him will be limited, and the southerners complain that he will be housed in a small "unworthy" home, rather than in the royal palace in Kabul.

Such preconditions are "undemocratic and unacceptable", the declaration said. "If these reported restrictions are confirmed, the designated sources shall definitely face an extremely strong reaction and opposition in our nation," it added.

There was no immediate comment on the controversy from the interim government in Kabul of Hamid Karzai.

The return of the last monarch of the Durrani dynasty was a part of the agreement negotiated in Koenigswinter, Germany, last Decemberto set up an interim political structure to succeed the Taliban government, which was ousted by forces led by the United States in its war against the al-Qaeda terror network of Osama bin Laden.

The ex-monarch is scheduled to convene a loya jirga in June that will select a transitional government to rule Afghanistan for 18 months until national elections are held.

Beyond that, Zahir Shah's precise role is unclear. He is very popular among the Durrani tribes of the ethnic Pashtun south, but less so among other Pashtuns farther east, and among other ethnic groups in central and northern Afghanistan.

Although the current interim government is headed by a relative of the king, Karzai, the most powerful posts are held by northerners.

In a recent interview, Zahir Shah said of his return, "It was always my desire to return to my country. Now the international climate has changed ... in the past I was afraid if I went back, it could have caused more bloodshed."

Sources said that although Zahir Shah cannot be termed the single most popular person in Afghanistan - Taliban leader Mullah Omar still has a strong following - he maintains widespread support, and therefore influence, in the country.

Which is why key aides in the interim government, including Northern Alliance leaders and warlords, fear his return.

Zahir Shah was due in Kabul last Thursday for the start of the Afghan New Year, at which time he was expected to draw tribal chiefs and supporters from all over Afghanistan - to the detriment of the Northern Alliance. Such a gathering would also have concerned US and allied troops, who want a complete monopoly in controlling the law and order situation in the country.

Sources said the Northern Alliance warlords did not block Zahir Shah's trip, but they gave sufficient signals that if he did return, there could be trouble.

The same holds true if he were to visit Kandahar, which while being the monarch's native home was also the spiritual heartland of the Taliban regime for the five years of its rule. There is said to be an equal amount of pro-monarchy and pro-Taliban support in the region.

Clearly, the latter would not sit back idly and watch the king being idolized. Further, they are said to be ready to take on the Royal Marines when they arrive.

Now, the major tribal chiefs, warlords and politicians are planning for June's loya jirga. A major chunk of Pashtun support that used to be with Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, Younis Khalis, Abdul Rassoul Sayyaf and Rabbani was absorbed by the Taliban. After the rout of the Taliban, many of these Pashtuns become independent warlords.

This has made eastern and southern Afghanistan very unstable, with various segments trying to fill the political vacuum. There can thus only be more uncertainty and unrest ahead, besides the guerrilla campaign that the Taliban are expected to intensify soon against the forces of the US and its allies.

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