Winds of trouble sweep across Afghanistan


	April 10, 2002	atimes.com

Central Asia/Russia

Winds of trouble sweep across Afghanistan
By Syed Saleem Shahzad

KARACHI - With Taliban, pro-Taliban and al-Qaeda fighters regrouping in the east and south of Afghanistan, the ruling administration in Kabul, which is dominated by the non-Pashtun Northern Alliance, is unable to deal with these forces due to differences within the Northern Alliance itself.

The arrests last week of several hundred Pashtun commanders in Kabul, mostly members of the previously strong fundamentalist mujahideen group Hizb-i-Islami, are likely to set off a new wave of unrest in the war-torn country.

Recently, the Afghan administration in Kandahar province admitted that it had been sent messages by the Taliban calling on it to step down to avoid fighting among Afghans. At the same time, it is believed that the spiritual leader of the Taliban, Mullah Omar, openly visits Kandahar - his former stronghold - once a week or so along with a convey of vehicles to visit a shrine of Sufi saint Mullah Hasan Akhund, located in suburban Kandahar. Despite knowing this, the local administration dares not intercept him for fear of arousing rival local warlords into fighting one another.

The arrests in Kabul indicate differences within the interim administration of Hamid Karzai and also show how anxious factions in the country are to flex their muscles ahead of the loya jirga (grand council of elders) scheduled for June to hammer out a more permanent government for Afghanistan.

The arrests of the Pashtun commanders were ordered by Interior Minister Yunus Qanooni, who said that among them was one Abdul Waheed Sabaoon, a member of the Hizb-i-Islami led by former Afghan Pashtun premier Gulbuddin Hekmatyar and Hekmatyar's son-in-law. Qanooni said that the commanders had gathered to plot to destabilize the interim administration and to create a situation of unrest that would place in jeopardy the return to Kabul of former monarch Zahir Shah and the staging of the loya jirga. The monarch has already postponed his trip to Kabul several times because of the poor security situation. Latest reports say that he might return next week after 30 years in exile in Rome. He is scheduled to chair the opening session of the loya jirga.

Immediately after the arrests, the spokesperson of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), the 5,000-strong force mandated to keep law and order in Kabul and protect Karzai's administration, said that they had not been taken into confidence before the detentions. At the same time, Karzai remained silent, but sources said that he had been unhappy with the operation and had asked the Northern Alliance to take steps to release the men.

Sabaoon was the chief intelligence officer of the Hizb-i-Islami during the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in the 1980s. When the Taliban first emerged in 1994 as a real power, the most important Hizb-i-Islami commanders supported them. As a result, the Hizb-i-Islami, which had been the strongest mujahideen group, virtually fell apart.

Its leader Hekmatyar, since Pakistan did not support him, left Afghanistan for exile in Iran. He instructed his commanders not to resist the Taliban and to surrender to avoid too much loss of life. However, after the Taliban defeated Professor Burhanuddin Rabbani's government in Kabul in 1996, the Northern Alliance and the late Ahmad Shah Massoud's mujahideen party - the Shura-i-Nazar - decided to resist the Taliban. And Sabaoon fought alongside the Shura-i-Nazar, entering Kabul with the Northern Alliance front, but as his loyalties remain suspect he has been called a rebel by the interim government.

Sources suggest that the meeting of Pashtun commanders was meant to activate a movement among like-minded Pashtuns who would be expected to take part in the loya jirga. Clearly, the meeting was separate from the overall policies of the Northern Alliance and the Shura-i-Nazar. It was no threat to law and order - it was simply a part of the complex preparations for the new political process in Afghanistan.

Adding to the strife in the country, on Monday ethnic Tajik Defense Minister Mohammad Fahim survived an assassination attempt in the eastern city of Jalalabad, which is largely populated by Pashtuns. The Foreign Ministry immediately pointed the finger at Taliban survivors and the al-Qaeda network, although it did not rule out the involvement of drug bosses. The attempt on Fahim was made on the day that the government started a program to persuade local farmers to accept cash for not planting opium poppies. The minister has been on a tour of Afghanistan for the past week to assess the nation's security situation.

The mass arrests illustrate the ethnic division between Pashtuns and other ethnic groups. As Asia Times Online has written, after the Taliban's rout, some sections of the Pashtun population who had nothing to do with the (largely Pashtun) Taliban are being victimized in northern Afghanistan by ethnic Hazara, Uzbeks and Tajiks. This has been confirmed by the US-based rights group Human Rights Watch.

Asia Times Online has also written that this situation has led to many Pashtun warlords and tribes forming into small independent groups with their own agendas. And as long as the Northern Alliance follows ethnocentric policies that exclude Pashtuns, the situation will not improve.

Hekmatyar is now said to be in the western city of Herat where he has the complete support of the governor, Ismail Khan, who has his own differences with the Northern Alliance. Hekmatyar is also believed to have mustered the support of Uzbek warlord Abdul Rasheed Dostum in the Mazar-e-Sharif region. Even Karzai is thought to be closer to Hekmatyar than many Northern Alliance members. This could be why Karzai's security is now in the hands of the ISAF rather than members of the Shura-i-Nazar or the Northern Alliance.

Indeed, the situation is so complex in Afghanistan that it is difficult to predict who will be the first to initiate trouble in Kabul - but one thing is sure - there will be trouble before the loya jirga begins. And it will be big trouble.

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