Afghanistan: One step forward ...


	April 18, 2002	atimes.com

Central Asia/Russia

Afghanistan: One step forward ...
By Syed Saleem Shahzad

KARACHI - Two important events in Afghanistan this week clearly illustrate that the process of political change - and stability - is slowly under way in the country. But as always in Afghanistan, darker influences threaten even these nascent steps towards democracy.

Earlier this week the district of Mardyan, in the far northern province of Jowzjan, became the first in the country to begin the process of choosing its representatives for the loya jirga (grand council) which will choose a new government to serve until elections can be held in 18 months. Mardyan was the first of 381 district assemblies where area elders will gather to choose 20 to 60 representatives, who later will come together to select with secret ballots a few from their ranks to represent them at the loya jirga.

More than 1,500 delegates are expected to attend the national gathering, scheduled for the capital Kabul in June. If the council goes ahead as hoped, Afghanistan will be on its way to having its most democratic government ever.

There has been no census in war-torn Afghanistan for decades and so direct elections are not yet possible as there are no voter's rolls. Nevertheless, the country has strong democratic traditions - Afghans are used to sitting down for hours to thrash out issues and reach decisions by consensus.

The final composition of the loya jirga is likely to include more than 1,450 delegates, of which over 1,000 will be elected from various districts. One-hundred-and-sixty seats will be reserved for women, 53 seats for members of the current administration of interim leader Hamid Karzai, 100 seats for Afghan refugees and six for internally displaced Afghans, as well as 25 seats for nomads.

Dangers to a successful loya jirga are posed by the warlords scattered across the country as they might impose their will on ordinary folk. Another problem is that many Afghans are unclear on the arrangements for the national meeting - when it will be held and how the delegates should be chosen, for example. Certainly, the United Nations-supported Loya Jirga Commission has a huge public information challenge on its hands in a country where the media is basically confined to the radio.

The second important development in Afghanistan this week is the arrival of the former monarch, Zahir Shah, who is due to return to the country on Thursday after 29 years in exile in Italy. The 87-year-old's return has been delayed several times for security reasons but the situation is now believed to be safe enough for him to travel to Kabul and to prepare for presiding over the opening session of the loya jirga next month.

The king - who will be traveling as an "ordinary Afghan citizen" - will be accompanied by about 20 family members, including his son, Mir Wais. The Italian government has pledged to provide security for him while in Afghanistan. Karzai has already left for Italy to accompany the ex-monarch to Afghanistan, which he fled in 1973 after being ousted in a bloodless coup by his cousin, Mohammed Daoud Khan, after 40 years on the throne.

The political developments come at a time when the situation on the ground is still highly volatile. A plot to kill Karzai was recently unveiled and there has also been a failed assassination attempt on Defense Minister Mohammad Fahim.

And earlier this week it was confirmed that British troops had launched their first major combat operation of the Afghan conflict, joining United States and Afghan soldiers searching the mountains of southeastern Afghanistan for al-Qaeda and Taliban fighters. Members of the elite 45 Commando Royal Marines were sent into the area several days ago, but their mission was not made public until Tuesday. This operation clearly illustrates that seven months into the US-led war on terror in Afghanistan, resistance in the country is far from over, despite the apparent rout of the Taliban earlier in the year.

At first glance it would appear that the Northern Alliance has a complete grip in Kabul. However, the alliance, as reported by Asia Times Online, has serious splits. Tajiks, especially, are increasingly concerned over the growing influence of pro-Zahir Shah elements in the government. Other groups are following the anti-US line given out by Iran, and there are also signals that some warlords within the Northern Alliance are in contact with leaders of the Taliban.

In the east, Khost and Paktia are completely in the hands of the Taliban, although they have not officially taken over power for fear of US bombings. Taliban leader Mullah Omar is said to be holed up in Oruzgan, along with several thousand die-hards. The provinces of Hilmund and Kandahar reveal a mixed trend, although anti-US sentiment is said to be in the ascendency.

This situation points to the fact that fighting in the country will not be done along clearly defined boundaries - the enemy will be to the left, to the right and in the middle. And in the first stages, the main enemy will be mines and rocket launchers as the Taliban and al-Qaeda lie very low - for now.

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