Central Asia/Russia


	June 6, 2002	atimes.com

Central Asia/Russia

The serendipitous search for peace
By Ehsan Ahrari

Even though they are overshadowed by the continued speculations of war between India and Pakistan over the Kashmir dispute, three developments in South, West and Central Asia could, serendipitously, lead to peace and stability if they were allowed to take their intended course.

The first event is the ongoing trilateral talks between Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan for creating a "landmark partnership for development, economic cooperation and trade". The second is the newly signed gas-pipeline deal by Pakistan, Afghanistan and Turkmenistan. And the third is the attempts by Iran and Azerbaijan to find a basis for allocating Caspian Sea oil reserves through negotiations. This last issue is perhaps the most difficult one because five littoral states are claimants to the reserves. Of the five, Russia and Iran are finding it hard to design a mutually agreeable formula for dividing the spoils. However, given the multi-faceted nature of Russian-Iranian cooperation, it is hoped that they will succeed in finding a basis for cooperation.

The trilateral meeting was aimed at developing a framework for the reconstruction of Afghanistan by establishing a joint commission for subregional cooperation and development. The United Nations Development Program (UNDP) acted as a facilitator, but other international organizations - such as the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank and the Islamic Development Bank - also participated. The most promising aspect of the cooperation among the three countries is the search for "ways to expand private-sector collaboration, facilitate trade and commerce and define strategies for regional economic cooperation". Finance ministers of Pakistan and Iran headed the activities of their respective nations. The joint communique issued at the end of the meeting stated that the countries would meet twice a year to review progress made on regional trade issues, the reconstruction of Afghanistan and finding ways to finance projects.

The original estimates for the reconstruction of Afghanistan, released in January, hovered around the US$15 billion mark. However, toward the end of April, a new United Nations report stated that "longer-term development projects are moving at a dangerously slow pace". And the lack of emergency funds for food may make that pace even slower.

Given their past hostile relations, the participation of Iran and Afghanistan was, indeed, a welcome development. Relations between those countries suffered enormously under Taliban rule. Iran found itself at the receiving end of the virulently anti-Shi'ite and anti-Iran posture of the Taliban, without being able to influence those policies. Iran does not want to be excluded from the political developments of Afghanistan and would very much like to see the creation of a friendly government there.

By the same token, Pakistan's participation in the reconstruction of Afghanistan is also important because Islamabad remains wary that the future government of Afghanistan does develop friendly ties with India at Pakistan's expense. Pakistan's neutrality regarding the future course of political developments in Afghanistan is contingent upon the establishment of a government that remains highly sensitive to Pakistan's security interests, especially one that is linked to its immediate neighborhood. Pakistan and Iran also expressed their earnest desire to promote bilateral trade and economic cooperation, and pledged $100 million and $560 million respectively for the reconstruction of Afghanistan.

The second development was the signing of an agreement by Pakistan, Afghanistan and Turkmenistan "to tap Central Asia's huge gas reserves". The heads of state - President General Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan, interim leader Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan and President Supramurad Niyazov of Turkmenistan - agreed on the construction of a 1,500-kilometer pipeline that is to cost in the region of $2 billion. It will take gas from Turkmenistan through Afghanistan to Pakistan. Turkmenistan wants to use the project to move away from its dependence on Russia. Pakistan and Afghanistan assign enormous significance to the project since it is expected to yield major revenues for both of them.

One of the expectations related to the pipeline is that it would supply Ashgabat's natural gas to the ever-increasing energy demands of the growing Indian economy. The greatest catch, however, is whether the gas would really reach the Indian market given the acutely hostile nature of Indian-Pakistan ties involving Kashmir. One school of thought suggests that, considering the large economic stakes associated with the pipeline, India and Pakistan would compartmentalize their differences and find ways to cooperate. The other school suggests that the two neighbors must fully resolve their differences over Kashmir before India could become a party to it. Even if India refuses to budge on the issue, oil from Turkmenistan may still be shipped to other markets through Pakistani ports.

The third development in the region involves Iran and Azerbaijan over the Caspian Sea oil. Iran has consistently argued for what it calls the "condominium or common sovereignty" of the Caspian Sea, whereby its minimum share of oil reserves would be about 20 percent. Of the five littoral states (Iran, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Russia), Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Russia support a plan that would leave Iran with an approximate share of 13 percent. Last summer, Iran sent its warships to fire on an oil research vessel from Azerbaijan that was about to take seismic surveys in the area of the Caspian Sea claimed by both countries - an area that Azerbaijan calls Alove-Sharg-Araz and which Iran calls Alborz.

Russia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan are interested in working up bilateral or trilateral deals aimed at excluding Iran, and such endeavors are becoming a source of regular irritation for the latter. Russia has also shown growing frustration on Iran's persistent refusal to budge from its claims related to "condominium of sovereignty". Russian President Vladimir Putin, after yet another failed summit meeting on the issue in April, stated that he would pursue bilateral and trilateral arrangements. He made good on his intentions by signing an agreement with Kazakhstan on May 13 to share the northern portion of the Caspian Sea. President Sayed Mohammad Khatami of Iran, in turn, expressed his disapproval of that development by harshly criticizing it. However, Putin set off alarm bells in Tehran by flying from that summit meeting to the Russian naval base at Astrakhan, where he ordered a naval exercise that will be held this summer.

Despite the seeming inability of the Caspian Sea states to develop a commonly acceptable formula, all sides fully comprehend what is at stake. Of the littoral states, Russia and Iran have strong disagreements over the issue, yet they also know they cannot allow the issue - important though it is - to pull them in different directions. Azerbaijan and Iran have also maintained their endeavors to find a mutually acceptable formula. Azerbaijan wants a friendly Iran for cultural and strategic reasons, the last being its continuing rivalry with Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh. Turkmenistan, since it assigns high significance to its policy of decreased reliance on Russia - and has also opted for a neutral posture - remains open to negotiating with Iran. Besides, given Turkmenistan's resolve to develop its gas pipelines through Afghanistan and Pakistan, it also envisages Iranian ports as another possible outlet.

Kazakhstan, though it has close ties with Russia, is wary of the regional rivalry with Islam Karimov of Uzbekistan. Russo-Kazakh ties play an important role in balancing that rivalry. Still, Nursultan Nazerbayev of Kazakhstan is interested in having Iran become a player in his own larger power balance equation. And continuing to talk to Iran on the Caspian oil issue is an important part of Nazerbayev's calculations.

Talks, rumors, and morbid scenarios of destruction and human suffering, in a perverse way, capture so much international attention because they are sensational. As one continues to think of South Asia as "the most dangerous region of the world", it is worth remembering that there are other developments in its neighborhood that are less sensational, but which are extremely promising for the prospects of peace - if only they be allowed to follow their intended course.

Ehsan Ahrari is a Norfolk, Virginia-based strategic analyst.

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