November 13, 1999	atimes.com

China THE MIDDLE KINGDOM: Invasion postponed By Bradley Martin China's recent series of military exercises revealed grave shortcomings in the readiness of the People's Liberation Army - to the extent, reports Ming Pao, that PLA hawks who had pressed for a quick invasion of Taiwan now counsel waiting for a year. The hawks figure that ''the best time for the mainland to use force against Taiwan is next year, when autumn is changing into winter''- if the Taiwan presidential election has put anti-''One China'' forces in power. By that time, the respected Hong Kong newspaper said, in its November 9 issue, military leaders expect to have made the requisite preparations to win big at minimum cost. The problem is, the PLA has been taking care of business - the money-making kind - during a long period of peace, so it has become rusty. The recent drills (See ''Military exercises aren't just for training'') found units flunking such critical tests as mine-laying and the loading of soldiers and vehicles onto landing vessels. ''Many piers, which were not maintained to military standards, collapsed when tanks and armored vehicles drove in.'' Even more of a problem is air defense, Ming Pao says, citing military sources. On the assumption that Taiwan would fight back (see below), the authorities had to face the fact that old air-raid shelters are no longer usable and there are ''no anti-raid facilities in densely populated cities, particularly in prosperous southeastern coastal areas.'' The military regions of Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong and Shanghai have been ordered to get to work building air-defense and early warning systems. There will be more drills to whip the military into shape for combined air-sea-land warfare. Meanwhile, the paper's sources say the extra year will permit deploying new weapons, some secret, that are deemed ''sufficient to deter the United States'' from intervening. Ming Pao provides a list of non-military preparations that are also planned for the intervening year, including this optimistic one: ''forge closer ties with the United States, Britain, France and other countries in order to reach a certain consensus or tacit understanding and to reduce resistance to the attack against Taiwan.'' The plans also include clearing the deck of a number of pending distractions by invasion time, says Ming Pao. To wit: - ''On the economic front, the issues of state enterprises, laid-off workers, restructuring and World Trade Organization entry basically will be resolved; - ''Socially destabilizing factors such as Falungong, dissent and Xinjiang and Tibet independence elements will be eliminated; and - ''China will launch national defense mobilization, ferret out spies and conduct internal party and government rectification.'' If that's not intimidating - and not only to Taiwan and its friends abroad but to huge numbers of mainlanders - what is? But suppose they give a war and nobody comes? Nobody from the other side, that is. The same day that the Ming Pao article appeared, Taiwan's Central News Agency reported the results of a survey showing that the majority of Taiwan university students don't want to fight. Some 48 percent of the Taiwan students polled by Chung Yuan Christian University said war is unlikely - but even if it comes they'll be reluctant to fight. Another 37 percent said they don't want to fight even though they think there's a high risk of war. Respondents with opinions on the military draft system disapproved of it by almost two to one. About 68 percent said they would ''prefer community service to military service.'' The agency noted that the poll had been taken one day following a report of a survey finding that the American public would tolerate losses up to 20,000 military personnel in case of US involvement in defense against an invasion by the mainland. (Special to Asia Times Online)

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