December 14, 1999	atimes.com

China Chinese New Year bugs Beijing HONG KONG - The casual attitudes to safety and maintenance that mark life in China do not inspire confidence at the best of times. As the new millennium approaches, concern is growing about threats posed by the Y2K bug. Although the government has been making regular statements of reassurance about preparations made, behind the scenes it is worried about possible social unrest. The People's Armed Police will be on stand-by in case lights go out in cities - and looting occurs. The domestically-run Qinshan nuclear power station in Zhejiang was closed for almost a year (it has now been re-opened), while the French-run Daya Bay plant near Hong Kong has drawn up as many as 40 different contingency plans - but too many other key institutions are not open to external scrutiny, nor given to seeking outside advice. The State Council, China's highest law-making body, only officially declared the millennium bug a problem in August last year, and many sectors were late starting to deal with the challenge. Banks announced in September that they had finished their final Y2K-simulation tests. The airline industry has been one of the most visible sectors in issuing public assurances. Shanghai-based China Eastern Airlines announced in October that it was in the final stages of testing its computers and systems, which are 95 per cent Y2K-ready. The Civil Aviation Administration of China conducted a Y2K-simulation test in October, and this went off without a glitch. State media have focused on the Y2K readiness of key industry sectors in aviation, power, banking and transportation, but the biggest question marks hang over other industry. ''Of course, all the key sectors have received lots of support from the central government, but other industries also have Y2K issues,'' says millennium bug specialist Hu Xiaomin. Most smaller enterprises have neither had the advantage of large funding nor expertise, so are most vulnerable. Many had problems even when the calendar reached 9.9.99. As much as 90 percent of software used in China is said to be pirated, making it difficult for many companies to seek help. Edward Lanfranco, a Beijing-based information technology consultant, says individual enterprises have been woefully under-funded and lack appreciation of the urgency necessary to deal with Y2K. It is likely that mishaps will occur most frequently in the interior, where city governments have not received as much government support as the coastal cities, and have reported little about their preparations. Even in Beijing, Y2K details are sketchy. It seems that specific Y2K contingency plans will not be made public until the last possible moment. In contrast, Hong Kong companies have spent literally billions of dollars to avoid a nightmarish start to the new century. CLP Power, the monopoly electricity provider to Kowloon and the New Territories, has spent more than HK$60 million (US$7.75 million). Cathay Pacific Airways has paid out more than HK$450 million since 1996 to make sure it will not be caught unprepared, while Dragonair says it has committed HK$30 million. In the banking sector, Standard Chartered has dedicated about HK$180 million since 1996, while HSBC Holdings will have spent US$54 million this year alone. Hong Kong Monetary Authority executive director Raymond Li says: ''It's definitely not a small sum that has been spent on the Y2K problem if you add all the banks together.'' But the banking sector is well aware that throwing money at the problem is not a guarantee of results. Here, the problems go beyond software to so-called ''millennial fever''. ''There is nothing really to fear, except the fear that people will begin feeling irrational fear - that is something that can hurt the local economy,'' says Li. And having large amounts of cash brings its own risk. Depositors, caught up in the fervour of the moment, might decide to go liquid as a hedge against a crisis. New Year's Eve also falls on a Friday, the day when bank withdrawals traditionally increase ahead of the weekend. Hong Kong's Government has made that day a bank holiday, to give institutions some breathing space. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority and the Hong Kong Association of Banks have been preparing for a potential rush on bank notes. The HKMA has sanctioned an increase in Hong Kong's supply of bank notes from HK$90 billion to HK$150 billion during the last four months of the year as part of its plan to counter millennium bug worries. The HKMA last month said it would increase the potential supply of short-term funds to the market by HK$115 billion to prevent interest rates from surging if depositors did withdraw large amounts of funds. There is a general belief that the Y2K problem may have far fewer repercussions than first forecast. Experts predict that with a combination of heavy spending by corporations and energetic campaigning by government, regulators and utilities, the effect could be minimal. September 9, 1999, one of the danger dates leading up to the main Y2K event, was to have been the final dress-rehearsal for Hong Kong millennium bug-preparedness, and the territory emerged almost entirely glitch-free. The HKMA has certified all Hong Kong banks Y2K-compliant and has created a Year 2000 Event Management Centre that will be open through the critical days leading up to and beyond January 1. (Asia Pulse)

Front | China | Southeast Asia | Japan | Koreas | India/Pakistan | Central Asia/Russia | Oceania Business Briefs | Global Economy | Asian Crisis | Media/IT | Editorials | Letters | Search/Archive Travel Reservations to Paris France

back to the top ©1999 Asia Times Online Co., Ltd.

China Chinese Sex News | Asian Sex Gazette