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January 8, 2000 atimes.com
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China

THE MIDDLE KINGDOM: Warm breezes next door
By Bradley Martin

''The situation in the Korean peninsula at the turn of the century is like a warm winter day,'' begins a remarkably optimistic summary by Beijing's Renmin Ribao (People's Daily). ''A whirl of warm wind has swept away the freezing cold temperatures.''

Compiled by the official party newspaper's Beijing and Seoul correspondents and a Beijing-based editor, the December 22 article is worth quoting at some length as a reflection of leadership views regarding China's often troublesome neighbors. ''During the past year,'' it says, ''gratifying changes have taken place and peace, reconciliation and cooperation are fast becoming new spotlights.''

The paper expresses particular pleasure at the growing extent of North-South exchanges, with inter-Korean trade up some 80 percent as of September over the figure a year earlier. In this relationship North Korea has been moving up the manufacturing food chain from simply processing on consignment to preparing to establish at Sinuiju on the west coast, in cooperation with the South's Hyundai Group, a special economic zone for South Korean companies. North Korean leader Kim Jong-il has twice received Hyundai founder Chung Ju-yung, and some 150,000 South Koreans have taken Hyundai's tours to North Korea's scenic Mt Kumgang.

Things are looking up for both of the Korean economies, Renmin Ribao notes. ''North Korea's national economy and the people's livelihood are recovering from the nadir of recent years and are on the path of adjustment and development.'' South Korea, meanwhile, ''has overcome the impact of the Asian financial crisis''. Those positive developments, in turn, ''will further promote bilateral economic cooperation and trade as well as cultural exchange and lay down a firm foundation for the promotion of mutual understanding and trust and for ending confrontation and seeking peaceful coexistence''.

If its analysis is starting to sound downright sugar-coated, Renmin Ribao does note that the year 1999 was by no means trouble-free. There was a nasty naval clash in western waters in June. But ''fortunately the conflict did not get out of control, nor did it affect economic cooperation or cultural exchanges''.

Even the obligatory swipe at the United States for half a century of ''hegemonism and Cold War policies'' aimed at the peninsula is followed with a fairly positive assessment of Washington's new North Korea policy based on the report by former defense secretary William Perry. While the old policy emphasized ''containing'' the North, the new one ''emphasizes dialogue supplemented by containment'' and ''is of positive significance to ending confrontation and achieving peaceful coexistence'' between North and South Korea.

Likewise Renmin Ribao has good words for recent moves to normalize relations between Japan and North Korea, which accord with ''the overall interest of peace and stability in the peninsula and in northeast Asia''.

Beijing's own relations with Pyongyang - which, although Renmin Ribao doesn't mention it, were strained during the '90s as the Beijing-Seoul relationship blossomed - are on course, following a 1999 visit by North Korean number two Kim Yong-nam, president of the Supreme People's Assembly. Kim agreed with his Chinese hosts ''to continue to maintain and develop the traditional friendship and cooperation between the two countries''.

The image of China that readers are supposed to draw from the article is that of perennial peacemaker. ''China, linked with the Korean peninsula by mountains and waters, has consistently devoted itself to promoting peace and stability in the peninsula,'' says the paper. ''China has always supported the two sides on the peninsula in their efforts to achieve peaceful reunification independently and without foreign intervention.''

Ah. Reunification without foreign intervention. Where else have we heard those words lately?

The article doesn't mention that because of the mainland's campaign against pro-independence elements in Taiwan - and its threat to use military means in case those elements go too far - Beijing needs peace on the Korean peninsula. (And thus it needs leverage with Pyongyang to disincline Kim Jong-il from any desperate adventurism that might distract China's People's Liberation Army from its current focus on the strait. A January 3 dispatch from Seoul by South Korea's Yonhap news agency notes that the North reportedly has ''received more aid from China recently, amid high-profile visits by North Korean officials such as Kim Yong-nam''.)

Anyhow, countries always have mixed motives for their policies. Maybe it's enough that Beijing unequivocally opposes a renewed outbreak of war next door - and is aware of how much effort is needed to change the mere lack of overt hostilities into a stable peace. ''At present the peninsula is warm with spring breezes,'' says Renmin Ribao. ''This is a rare opportunity for peace. However, the momentum of peace is still quite fragile [and] the journey to peace in the Korean peninsula is long and arduous.''

(Special to Asia Times Online)



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