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| March 14, 2000 | atimes.com | ||
|  | China China trade: Clinton fights for his place in history By Jim Lobe WASHINGTON - President Bill Clinton and the largest US multinational corporations are gearing up for a major fight to persuade a majority of the House of Representatives to permanently give China the same trade preferences Washington offers to most of its other trading partners. The effort, which could well determine the shape of relations between Beijing and Washington for some time to come, stacks up as the biggest legislative foreign-policy battle Clinton will face in his final year in office. US-Chinese ties are not the only issue at stake. The vote will also be a critical test of the relative political strength here of forces which favor economic globalization and those which resist it. Despite the strength of the US economy, economic nationalists on the right and a coalition of labor unions and environmental groups on the left have stymied Clinton's efforts to get Congress to pass major free-trade legislation for the past five years. The White House, which was confident about winning the China vote as recently as one month ago, now appears worried about its prospects. For the first time, Clinton this week devoted an entire speech to the issue and rushed a draft bill to Congress with a request for speedy action. Both sides agree that the vote, whenever it occurs, will be extremely close. By granting China permanent ''normal trade relations'' (NTR), Congress will ratify a far-reaching bilateral trade agreement negotiated with Beijing by the administration last November. The accord, which will give US corporations much greater freedom to sell to the vast Chinese market and take advantage of its vast supply of cheap labor, would also expedite Beijing's admission to the World Trade Organisation (WTO). Ironically, the battle will be waged mostly within Clinton's own Democratic Party. A majority of Democratic congressmen - some say two-thirds - oppose giving China permanent NTR status, arguing that, by doing so, Washington will lose leverage with Beijing on key points of contention, particularly on human and workers' rights. Complicating the fight is the November presidential election which will almost certainly pit Vice President Al Gore against Texas Governor George W Bush. All 435 House seats, as well as one third of the Senate, will also be up for grabs. A reinvigorated US labor movement, a bedrock Democratic constituency, is dead-set against permanent NTR and has made the fight to defeat it its top legislative priority for the year. As the election approaches, according to key lawmakers and experts here, the political costs for Democratic candidates, including Gore, of embracing NTR for China will be much higher. For that reason, the White House wants a vote before the Memorial Day weekend May 28 after which campaign season begins in earnest. The House Republican leadership, which controls the legislative calendar, however, would like to delay the vote until the summer to gain maximum political advantage, even at the risk of killing the bill. Big business, which is expected to spend as much as $20 million on a lobbying and ad campaign in favor of permanent NTR, is pressing the Republicans, however, not to make the bill a political football. ''This is much too important,'' says one corporate lobbyist, who notes that companies with substantial investments in China are warning lawmakers that their vote will have a direct impact on campaign contributions. Republicans generally receive substantially more contributions from business than Democrats. Virtually all of Washington's trading partners enjoy permanent NTR, formerly called ''most-favored-nation'' (MFN) status. But, in the 1970s, Congress passed legislation that denied permanent status to communist states except under certain circumstances. Under that law, the president must renew NTR each year, a decision which can then be overturned by Congress. Such a result would have a major effect on the Chinese economy which last year enjoyed a trade surplus with the United States of more than $50 billion. The US market currently buys about 40 percent of China's exports. Since Beijing's crackdown on the pro-democracy movement in 1989, a coalition of right-wing Republicans and liberal Democrats, many of whom are backed by the labor-union movement and human-rights groups, have voted to overturn such renewals, but they have never quite succeeded. That same coalition is now arguing that a vote for permanent MFN would eliminate what leverage Congress has to influence US policy toward China. ''Once China is given permanent MFN,'' according to a statement issued by Congressional Progressive Caucus, a group of more than 50 Democratic lawmakers, ''it permanently receives unconditional access to the US market and we lose that leverage. China will be free to attract multinational capital on the promise of super low wages, unsafe workplace conditions and prison labor and permanent access to the US market.'' This argument is clearly making some headway. Last week, three senior Democratic lawmakers who have supported annual NTR in the past, said they will vote against permanent status. House Minority Whip David Bonior, an outspoken NTR foe, claimed last week that a total of 30 lawmakers fell into that category, although administration officials discount that estimate. Republican leaders say that Clinton must deliver 100 Democrats - slightly less than half their total number in the House - to ensure passage of the measure. But most analysts believe the president will not be able to round up so many votes from his own party. ''Clinton could get Nafta (the North American Free Trade Agreement) through by promising this and that to all kinds of people. But he's a lame duck now and can't make those promises anymore,'' notes Jim Berger, editor of Washington Trade Daily. Moreover, unions, having been revived by a new leadership over the last several years, are considered a much more potent political force than they were in 1993 when Clinton forced Nafta through Congress. ''The unions are being very effective,'' says Berger. Union pressure is so effective at this point that Gore himself distanced himself briefly from the China accord last month when, during his primary battle with challenger Bill Bradley, he told labor leaders at their annual convention that he would negotiate tougher agreements on workers' rights if he were elected. He was quickly brought into line, and since Bradley dropped out of the race last week, labor's leverage on him will probably diminish, at least for now. Analysts say Republicans, who hold a six-seat majority in the House, should be able to muster 150 votes for NTR. If so, that means Clinton needs only 68 Democrats - a target which clearly is in reach. Democrats from districts with substantial agribusiness and high-tech industries tend to support freer trade. But that scenario assumes a degree of Republican co-operation which may not materialize. Some administration officials say if the Republican leadership delays a vote until after Memorial Day, Clinton and Gore may very well seek to have it pulled from consideration this year. In addition, tensions between China and Taiwan, a cause celebre among many Republicans, could still derail passage. When China issued a new White Paper earlier this month which appeared to threaten military action against Taiwan if the island refuses indefinitely to negotiate about reunification, a number of key Republicans who had supported NTR said they would reconsider. Some lawmakers suggested they will attach pending legislation that would substantially upgrade US-Taiwanese military ties to Clinton's NTR bill, a move that would almost certainly escalate tensions not only between Taipei and Beijing, but between Beijing and Washington as well. ''This vote is going to be very close,'' says one Congressional aide. ''And a hell of a lot is going to be riding on it.'' (Inter Press Service) | |||||||||
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