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Taiwan: Victory for new opportunities
After 50 years of mostly dictatorial rule over Taiwan, China's nationalist party, the KMT, was trounced in Saturday presidential elections on the island. It's a historical milestone for Taiwan and China as a whole and brings to an end the 65-year period in which the KMT and Chinese Communist Party contended first with Japanese invaders and then with each other for control of the nation. Now, a new democratic political force has emerged and its leader, Taiwan President-elect Chen Shui-bian, appears determined to seize the opportunities which his convincing election victory presents for re-ordering Taipei-Beijing relations. In one of his first acts after the election results were in, he invited Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji to visit Taiwan, said ''constructive dialogue'' with China was vital to maintain stability, and called for direct communication links with Beijing and increased Taiwanese investment in the mainland. And his statement that, ''not just Taiwanese people but all Chinese people should be proud of this election'', in effect speaks to the same point. Chen sees democratic and economic progress in Taiwan as progress for China as a whole and, we surmise, as a model for an eventually reunified nation.
Chen, aged 49, the popular former mayor of Taipei, is a young new political leader whose dialogue with Beijing will not be burdened by the baggage of the past. When negotiating with the mainland the new shape of Taiwan-mainland relations, he will not have to look over his shoulder and worry about being accused of sell-out if and when he matches concessions Beijing has promised in building a new framework for interaction of the two parts of the Chinese nation. He has the credentials of an independent leader, has in the past advocated an independent Taiwan, and will not be suspected of negotiating away essential political liberties. It now remains to be seen how he fills in the details of the ''constructive dialogue'' he's calling for after assuming office on May 20.
Will Zhu accept Chen's invitation? In his press conference upon the conclusion of the National People's Congress last week, Zhu let loose with some blood-curdling rhetoric, said China was not afraid to ''shed blood'' in the pursuit of national unity, and warned that any move toward independent nationhood by Taiwan would bring forth military action. But though such tough talk was new for Zhu and brought an official American protest, it did not define a new Beijing stance, but merely forcefully reiterated what had amply been made clear on numerous previous occasions and backed up by military deployments and warning shots. And in part at least, Zhu's verbal barrage was almost certainly designed to protect his own back against Politburo and military hardliners who have accused him of being a softy in international affairs and in respect to Taiwan. More noteworthy is that - unlike military leaders who said during the NPC that ''election of Chen means war'' - Zhu did not rule out dialogue with Chen and in fact offered concessions ''in the interest of the Chinese people'' if constructive dialogue came about. A White Paper issued before the NPC session in Beijing made much the same points: declaration of Taiwanese independence or indefinite postponement of unification talks would lead to military action, but dialogue on the basis of equality was possible and even Beijing's longstanding demand that political points must precede discussion of economic relations on any negotiations agenda was dropped.
Beijing's initial reaction to Chen's election has been cautious and measured. In a statement carried by the official news agency, Xinhua, the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council said it was ''listening to the words and watching the actions'' of Taiwan's president-elect and was ''waiting expectantly to see [in] which direction he will take cross-straits relations'', adding that ''Taiwan's local leadership election and its results cannot change the fact that Taiwan is a part of China's territory''. The statement made no reference to Chen's invitation to Zhu nor of his remark that he hoped to make a ''journey of reconciliation'' to the mainland before his inauguration.
But such cautious pronouncement is likely a positive sign and a far cry from the wild-eyed ''Chen's election means war'' type of talk delivered by Military Commission vice-chairman General Zhang Wannian during an NPC session for PLA delegates. Beijing will impose any number of conditions on a Chen ''reconciliation'' visit and many more again on a Taiwan visit by Zhu. But after all, is it not very much in line with Chinese tradition for a new ''provincial'' leader to visit the nation's capital or for a national leader to inspect conditions in a ''province''? Such exchange of visits is certainly not in violation of Beijing's own ''one China'' doctrine and by raising the issue Chen has set the ball rolling for the constructive negotiations both sides say they seek. Let's hope that all manner of nitpicking and issues of face don't get in the way of a fresh start of Taiwan-mainland dialogue.
We have written on a previous occasion that it was a proven military leader and fierce French nationalist, General Charles De Gaulle, who made peace in Algeria and a combative fighter for Israeli nationhood who had not shied away from terrorist action in pursuit of that goal, Menachem Begin, who made peace with Egypt and got the Arab-Israeli peace process started. Few dared to accuse them of sell-out and thus they were free to pursue rational conflict resolution. Beijing should keep that in mind and seek rational exchange with Chen who has nothing to fear from a Taiwanese backlash to constructive new initiatives in cross-strait talks.
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