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| June 2, 2000 | atimes.com | ||
|  | China The hermit's son leaves the Hermit Kingdom STRATFOR.COM's Global Intelligence Update June 1, 2000 Summary North Korean leader Kim Jong-il has made a rare trip outside of his country, apparently paying a secret visit to Beijing on May 29 and 30. Kim's trip comes just two weeks before an historic summit between North and South Korea. It is unclear who initiated the meeting, but it appears that Beijing is underscoring its role in peninsula politics - and growing concerned that the summit might interfere with China's own goals. Analysis On May 29, rumors emerged from Beijing indicating that North Korean leader Kim Jong-il had arrived by train on a secret visit. By May 31, diplomatic and government sources cited by South Korean, Chinese, and Russian press confirmed that Kim had indeed paid a two-day visit to China, meeting with President Jiang Zemin. While neither Beijing nor Pyongyang has admitted to the visit, South Korean government and intelligence officials cited it as a positive reflection on the upcoming inter-Korean summit, scheduled for June 12-14. Kim's mission to Beijing reinforces the key role that China is playing in the current round of inter-Korean contacts; in contrast, the United States shaped the run-up to the scuttled 1994 summit between South and North Korea. The Chinese either summoned Kim or he was seeking their approval. In either event, it now appears that the Chinese leadership is attempting to restrain him from moving too far, too fast - and making too many concessions to Seoul. The North Korean leader has sought Chinese counsel or been summoned in advance of major developments. On March 5, Kim made an unusual visit to the Chinese embassy in Pyongyang. Four days later, representatives of the two Koreas held secret meetings in Singapore, leading to higher-level secret negotiations in Shanghai, a week later. China also hosted the subsequent negotiations that culminated in the April 10 announcement of the summit. However, in early May, as Seoul and Pyongyang were nearing final agreement on the details of the summit, North Korea moved to distance itself from Beijing, asking that Li Peng, leader of the National People's Congress, reschedule his visit to Pyongyang. North Korea's decision to postpone Li's visit was surprising; Beijing and Pyongyang have been negotiating reciprocal leadership visits for several years. Such visits never materialize due to questions of protocol - which leader should visit which nation first - and there are still residual ill feelings in Pyongyang concerning China's dialogue with Seoul. Coming just two weeks before the summit, Kim's sudden visit to Beijing suggests that North Korea and China wish to reorient their relations and the agenda for the summit. Beijing, concerned at Pyongyang's decision to enter into the summit without Chinese guidance, may have pressured Kim into coming - threatening to pull political and economic assistance if he didn't listen to advice. Alternately, Kim may have taken the initiative to travel to Beijing to reassure Pyongyang's key regional partner that he has no intention of abandoning his longtime sponsor, thus ensuring support for whatever transpires at the summit. In either event, Beijing's concern is clear. China has much to gain and lose on the Korean peninsula. China supports reconciliation for several reasons but one overrides all others: as long as there is animosity on the Korean Peninsula, there will be U.S. troops stationed just outside China's back door. North Korean belligerence - particularly its long-range missile program - has also given the United States justification to develop missile defenses. Such defenses are a direct threat to China's comparatively small strategic arsenal. By bringing North Korea to the table, China gains Seoul's gratitude; already South Korea is planning heavy investment in China's Far West. By helping facilitate reunification, or at least reconciliation, China can shape the future of the peninsula. Absent the cold war legacy of division, Korea's historical orientation is toward China. Regaining these ties would keep Japan at a safe distance. China's leadership sees the opportunity to gain an ally, at most, and a neutral neighbor, at the very least. North Korea's decision to step out alone has raised concerns in Beijing that it may not be able to influence the progress of the inter-Korean talks. In essence, the Chinese government appears to be concerned that negotiations are moving too quickly, to the direct advantage of South Korea, and to the indirect benefit of the United States. Kim's visit promises to temper potentially far-reaching agreements he may have considered making later this month. (c) 2000, WNI, Inc. _________________________________ For republication policy contact: STRATFOR, Inc. 504 Lavaca, Suite 1100 Austin, TX 78701 Phone: 512-583-5000 Fax: 512-583-5025 Internet: http://www.stratfor.com/ Email: info@stratfor.com | |||||||||
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