Asia Times: Putin in Tokyo


	September 5, 2000	atimes.com

Editorials

Putin in Tokyo - for what?

Escaping from Moscow for a while where his mishandling of the Kursk submarine disaster has seriously dented his public image must be a welcome distraction for Russian President Vladimir Putin. But what exactly he's hoping to accomplish in Tokyo is another matter.

There are, of course, several outstanding issues between Russia and Japan, most notably that 55 years after WWII they have yet to sign a peace treaty. What's been holding things up is the opportunistic seizure of four Japanese islands north of Hokkaido by the Soviet Union at the end of the war. The Kurils ("Northern Territories" in Japanese parlance) have since been under Soviet/Russian administration. The Japanese want them back - or sort of. The Russians want to keep them - sort of. One Japanese proposal now apparently being reiterated by Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori in his Monday/Tuesday meetings with Putin is for Russia to draw a formal line of demarcation north of the islands, but for Russia to keep administering them, perhaps till kingdom come.

Only one thing seems quite certain: there will be no early resolution of the issue. Putin, after the Kursk disaster - strangely and ironically - more than ever beholden to the military, can ill afford to be seen "giving up Russian territory" which Stalin stole fair and square. For Japan, in turn, letting the Northern Territories go is a no-no. You can't give up sacred Japanese soil. All this makes it unlikely as well that the two countries will be able to stick to the deadline set in 1997 for finalizing a peace treaty by the end of this year.

So, is there anything other than fluff that can be accomplished during Putin's stay in Tokyo? Sure there is - with a bit of flexibility and imagination on both sides. Unhappily, those commodities are rare both in Russian and Japanese diplomatic circles and officialdom. But we'll mention a few items anyway. Japan and Russia both have an interest in seeing to it that the Korean peace process proceed. Putin has spoken with North Korea's Kim Jong-il recently. Japan is engaged in peace treaty negotiations with North Korea. They should jointly propose activation of Sea of Japan bordering regions economic development plans long on the drawing board and involving the Koreas, Japan, Russia and China. Trade and economic progress might help where diplomacy to date has failed - including in suggesting future Kuril islands conflict resolution.

Russia and Japan might also usefully discuss the issue of regional (theater) missile defense. Though it has largely gone unnoticed, while Russia opposes US national missile defense plans it has not ruled out such defensive arrangements on a cooperative basis in Europe. Why not in Northeast Asia, where the North Korean threat remains even while the Koreas are talking?

Another issue is Russian scientific and technical manpower. Russian scientists and computer specialists, many now either unemployed or miserably underpaid, remain among the world's most competent. Japan has an urgent need for such manpower. Therein lies the basis for useful collaboration - and the hope that one day perhaps one might bump into a Russian scientist in Shinjuku rather than just Russian hookers who don't seem to have any problems with stringent Japanese immigration rules.

Hence we agree with former Japanese prime minister Nakasone: Japan and Russia should stick to the year-end deadline for a peace treaty. When - as expected - that fails, they should set another deadline. But in the meantime, unlike the past half century, the foggy Kurils should not time and again prevent normal development of relations between the two countries.

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