Asia Times: India looking east, China west


	January 11, 2001	atimes.com

Editorials

India looking east, China west

Oddly, while the highest ranking Chinese leader to visit India since the 1998 Pokhran nuclear tests, the politburo's number two Li Peng, arrived in Mumbai (Bombay) on Tuesday, Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee was off to Hanoi meeting with Vietnamese leaders. Not so long ago, that would have been considered a serious snub, harkening back to the days when India supported a Vietnam-installed regime in Cambodia while China assisted the Khmer Rouge against the Vietnamese occupation. Not so long ago as well, it would have been unthinkable for a top Chinese leader to visit India while ignoring Pakistan on a trip to the South Asian subcontinent.

But much has changed in the past few years. While caution prevails, India and China are no longer seeking military allies in each others' backyards and have decided to compete by other means instead for influence in Asia.

Prior to the Asian crisis, India had embarked on an ambitious "Look East" policy and - after becoming an Asean dialogue partner in 1995 - had begun to forge closer trade and investment links with its immediate eastern neighbors. The crisis disrupted those efforts. Investment in and trade with India took a back seat to urgent crisis resolution measures in Southeast Asia. India's nuclear tests, followed by a test series in Pakistan, also reinforced Asean leaders' long-held conviction that there was no point in getting closer to India when all that meant was getting in the middle of the India-Pakistan conflict. Similarly, they asked themselves what India had to offer in terms of trade and investment opportunities that China did not offer in greater abundance.

But with the impact of the Asian crisis and the subcontinent's nuclear confrontation subsiding, both sides appear ready for a new start. On the Southeast Asian side, Singapore, disappointed with its forays into China, has taken the lead in forging new links with India and is investing aggressively in the Indian IT and related sectors. Malaysian companies as well have rediscovered India. Ethnic Indians in Singapore and Malaysia are at the forefront of economic ties. As for India, it is only natural that it chose its old ally Vietnam to rekindle the Look East policy. As PM Vajpayee wrapped up his Vietnam visit late Tuesday, his Principal Secretary, Brajesh Mishra, told the press that "consensus is perhaps emerging within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations for a separate summit meeting with India", that "in the coming months or in a year or two this may happen", and that "Vietnam supports it [an Indo-Asean summit]". (The Asean informal summit in November had been of the view that it was "too early" to consider the idea.)

Much as India is looking east again, China has recently stepped up efforts looking west. At the Singapore Asean + 3 (Japan, Korea, China) summit in November, it sought to reassure the Asean group that its impending WTO entry would not threaten the group's export trade and held out the possibility of free(r) trade arrangements with Asean while at the same time pushing for stepped-up currency swap agreements to guard against regional financial instability. That China also recently unilaterally pledged not to sell missile technology to Pakistan helps alleviate Asean concerns over military confrontation on the subcontinent.

So, is all set then for friendly competition between India and China for greater influence in Southeast Asia and for trilateral China-Asean-India economic benefit? When Vajpayee returns to Delhi and receives Li Peng there coming in from Mumbai, they might usefully discuss such matters. Prior to that, their mutual border conflicts need to be addressed, and before there can be much talk of serious and beneficial competition in and over Southeast Asia, the lopsided economic eastward orientation of Asean must begin to be redressed. A faster growing India now offers such opportunities.

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