Asia Times: Myanmar: Window of opportunity


	February 6, 2001	atimes.com

Editorials

Myanmar: Window of opportunity

Over 10 years of economic and other sanctions imposed on Myanmar by Western nations and Japan have done nothing to dislodge or even significantly threaten the country's ruling military junta. They have done as little to bring closer the day when the 1990 election winner, opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD), might take the reins of government. They HAVE done a great deal in assuring that the vast majority of Myanmar's 50 million people continue to live in abject poverty with few prospects for change as most of the country's international economic relations remain cut and no incentives for improved economic management are forthcoming.

Since last October, members of the the ruling State Peace and Development Council, notably military intelligence chief General Khin Nyunt, have conducted secret negotiations with Suu Kyi. The talks have led to an easing of tension and the release from detention in late January of 84 NLD activists. (Most were imprisoned after Suu Kyi tried to travel with aides to do party work outside Yangon on September 21). Advocates of sanctions have been quick to claim that - albeit at long last - this proves the efficacy of such measures.

And that's utter nonsense. What it DOES prove is that the opposite, the patient confidence-building "constructive engagement" policy of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean), which admitted Myanmar to the association in 1997, is beginning to yield results. What it proves as well is that such cooperative policies have a much enhanced chance for success if they occur in a changing strategic environment more conducive to a positive outcome.

Last year, China, a long-time supporter of the SPDC (formerly the State Law and Order Council or Slorc) and provider of military and economic aid to Myanmar, decided to assign highest priority to the economic development of its western regions. During the summer meetings of the Beijing leadership at the Beidaihe seaside resort, it was further decided that China would engage in a charm offensive to improve political and economic relations with Southeast Asia and India. Now take a look at the map. Geographically, China's landlocked western regions have closest access to Southeast Asia and the Indian Ocean through Myanmar. And politically, China's overweening influence in Myanmar never sat well with key members of the Asean group. What better way to serve both national development and regional strategic objectives than encouraging processes that would lead Myanmar out of its international isolation?

Similarly, India - which, like China, shares a 1,500-kilometer border with Myanmar - has sought to improve relations with Myanmar, and again for both domestic and foreign policy reasons. Separatists and terrorists in the East Indian states bordering on Myanmar have frequently sought refuge there. Pacification of those states is a prime national policy objective. Moreover, after the hiatus of the Asian crisis India is looking East again and seeks improved economic relations with Southeast Asia. Signalling its intentions to put relations with Myanmar on a friendlier footing, India gave a warm welcome to Myanmar Foreign Minister Win Aung last November.

In this context, a key role in the rapprochement between the SPDC and Suu Kyi has been played by special UN envoy Razali Ismail, a retired Malaysian diplomat with close ties to Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad. Razali was in Myanmar in July and October 2000 and again in January, has been in touch with Beijing, and sees his role as honest broker helping facilitate government-opposition negotiations. Mahathir himself spent several days in Yangon in early January, no doubt in support of Razali's efforts, and later told the Japanese newspaper Mainichi Shimbun that he had met Senior General Than Shwe, chairman of the ruling SPDC, and had talked about elections and other matters in a general way: "He [Than Shwe] is willing to hold elections eventually," Mahathir was quoted by Mainichi as saying. "The election will not be held this year or next. It should be held in a few years."

The window of opportunity for progress in Myanmar opened by regional strategic constellations and Asean and UN efforts was opened a bit wider yet when new US Secretary of State Colin Powell told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in mid-January: "I would encourage the Congress to stop for a while. I mean stop, look and listen before you impose a sanction ... I mean, they just keep coming, and I think I've seen about half a dozen new ones ... in the last couple of weeks ... I would encourage self-discipline on the part of the Congress; that when you're mad about something, or when there is a particular constituent interest, please stop, count to 10, call me, let me come up, let's talk about it before you slap another bureaucratic process on me." Powell has said he plans a review of all current sanctions to determine whether they should be removed. Hopefully, he'll take a close look at Myanmar in the process.

Lastly, the third country sharing an approximately 1,500-km border with Myanmar, Thailand, is ready to talk with the SPDC to ease bilateral tensions while at the same time positioning itself to benefit as Myanmar opens up - and opens up Thai access to southwestern China. New Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra said last Thursday that his first foreign trip would likely take him to Yangon.

The opportunities to effect reconciliation in Myanmar and bring the country back into the world are better now than they have been in over a decade. Even the sanction-happy EU, which sent a delegation to Yangon in January, appears to be realizing that something is up and doesn't want to be left out. The sanction-mongers should butt out, most notably the ILO and the ICFTU which have been attempting to strengthen sanctions while others of a more level-headed mindset have been trying to make peace.

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